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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,861
  • May 24, 2007 2:10pm May 24, 2007 2:10pm
Guys, Yes this means it "may" go up. Many indications show the price will go up.

Mind you, no one can gaurantee where price will go cuz no one knows 100% for sure.

So for the most part no one on this board will tell u what to do, they will just say what they think may or may not happen.


Quoting bravado
this means extra shopping on christmas time.

i'd like to think my relationship with trend is strictly professional.
  • #4,862
  • May 24, 2007 2:18pm May 24, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting cesarnc
Wow, I liked that one... We can then expect 38% fib to hold a possible JPY bullish outcome later on.

All in all, retracement to 23% suggests continuation, indeed...
Thats right. Positive CPI may send the pair to 38% level, but the uptrend will be still intact if hold. If CPI comes negative, well, Ill buy buy and buy... Ok, not that much! Ill just buy buy.
  • #4,863
  • May 24, 2007 2:21pm May 24, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting bravado
this means extra shopping on christmas time.

i'd like to think my relationship with trend is strictly professional.
Oh! I would love to be Mr. Trend's friends. I've heard he has really strong influences...
  • #4,864
  • May 24, 2007 2:28pm May 24, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting bravado
ok so it will go up then?
Don't push me bravado. I might end up wearing a Condoleeza Rice avatar here.

  • #4,865
  • May 24, 2007 2:35pm May 24, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting pabloski
Oh! I would love to be Mr. Trend's friends. I've heard he has really strong influences...
you think you are trend's friend but think about how many friends trend has.
trend is a whore.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,866
  • May 24, 2007 2:35pm May 24, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting bravado
ok so it will go up then?
Haha! Another one... Man you have really learned to speak the nob language...
  • #4,867
  • May 24, 2007 2:35pm May 24, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting cesarnc
Don't push me bravado. I might end up wearing a Condoleeza Rice avatar here.

point taken.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,868
  • May 24, 2007 2:53pm May 24, 2007 2:53pm
looks like UY is consolidating in a very obvious triangle, so this should mean a breakout. Because its in an uptrend, should break to the upside after a fake brake down...Same thing with GY.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,869
  • May 24, 2007 2:56pm May 24, 2007 2:56pm
Tough day for NY stock market. Dow Jones & CO. got whacked.

Big push on strong Home Sales ("hey!!! Econonomy is doing fine!!!), replaced by "Damn, no rate cut anymore".

+80 then, now close to -100.

10 yr Treasury surged. Dollar pairs impossible to figure out, carry trades in the edge of the cliff but still proud on their tuxedos. UJ absent.

This morning's $ 2trillion question "where are we going" is worth $ 4 trillion as the day goes.
  • #4,870
  • May 24, 2007 3:40pm May 24, 2007 3:40pm
Quoting cesarnc
Tough day for NY stock market. Dow Jones & CO. got whacked.

Big push on strong Home Sales ("hey!!! Econonomy is doing fine!!!), replaced by "Damn, no rate cut anymore".

+80 then, now close to -100.

10 yr Treasury surged. Dollar pairs impossible to figure out, carry trades in the edge of the cliff but still proud on their tuxedos. UJ absent.

This morning's $ 2trillion question "where are we going" is worth $ 4 trillion as the day goes.
Japan news due in 3 hours is key to USDJPY, but given that the GBPUSD should continue sinking I would not bet on longing the GJ just now.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,871
  • May 24, 2007 4:00pm May 24, 2007 4:00pm
Hey all...

I'll be off forum in the upcoming days... It has been way to hard days to trade, fat profits here, lousy drawdowns there and it arrived the point where I just cannot chew other people's opinion anymore, either conflicting or not with mine. Making sense or not. I just lost the sense on how to judge them. And this is affecting me in such a way money does not allow.

Please, no offence intended to anyone. Do not take this personally.

But in these last days there has been way too much shoulds and woulds and will and wont's for all I can take and in the end of the day, it comes to be my account on the line.

I was taking it well, actually, but now the armaggedon prophets took over the forum, literally. Speculators are doomed, skies gonna fall, carry trades are over, China is going to explode. Way too much M. Night Shyamalanish to be taken seriouly.

And worst of all, the prophecies are exceeding the daily range in size, so just helping to blur my judgement even more.

It would be easy if the currencies were acting like doomed, so I could just trade them. But they are not.

I'm in de-FF-xication period.

For those who care to know, I'm long UJ, GJ, EJ and short USDCAD. While the apocalypse does not show up I'd rather stay with the trend.

Good trades to all...
  • #4,872
  • May 24, 2007 4:11pm May 24, 2007 4:11pm
Quoting cesarnc
Hey all...

I'll be off forum in the upcoming days...

Good trades to all...
tomorrow is friday though. market is open. unless i'm mistaken.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,873
  • May 24, 2007 4:31pm May 24, 2007 4:31pm
Quoting cesarnc
Hey all...

I'll be off forum in the upcoming days... It has been way to hard days to trade, fat profits here, lousy drawdowns there and it arrived the point where I just cannot chew other people's opinion anymore, either conflicting or not with mine. Making sense or not. I just lost the sense on how to judge them. And this is affecting me in such a way money does not allow.

Please, no offence intended to anyone. Do not take this personally.

But in these last days there has been way too much shoulds and woulds and will and wont's for all I can take and in the end of the day, it comes to be my account on the line.

I was taking it well, actually, but now the armaggedon prophets took over the forum, literally. Speculators are doomed, skies gonna fall, carry trades are over, China is going to explode. Way too much M. Night Shyamalanish to be taken seriouly.

And worst of all, the prophecies are exceeding the daily range in size, so just helping to blur my judgement even more.

It would be easy if the currencies were acting like doomed, so I could just trade them. But they are not.

I'm in de-FF-xication period.

For those who care to know, I'm long UJ, GJ, EJ and short USDCAD. While the apocalypse does not show up I'd rather stay with the trend.

Good trades to all...
that'll be a shame - been reading this thread for ages as a guest and always valued your advice etc.

but if your account's on the line, its understandable. hope to see u on again soon bro

good luck
  • #4,874
  • May 24, 2007 5:22pm May 24, 2007 5:22pm
Please dont go cesarnc ......Your posts have really taught me a lot....: yep still learning...but from stupid questions you get good answers and continue to learn....
  • #4,875
  • May 24, 2007 5:26pm May 24, 2007 5:26pm
wait a minute. i thought he is just leaving for the weekend. is cesarnc gone for good?
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,876
  • May 24, 2007 6:49pm May 24, 2007 6:49pm
Hi Cesar,

I have only been lurking here for a few weeks but I was just getting ready to post to say what a great learned teacher you are Cesarnc! I was just starting to gain the strength of your great knowledge. I am very sorry to hear you say you are leaving, please don't if you can stand to stay for those of us that really appreciate you and aren't boring you with stupid questions about IT WILL go up or down.

are you going to frequent a different forum on this server? if so, please let us (or me) know so I can continue to be a follower.

in any case thanks for all the knowledge you've been so willing to share here. I don't think you are confused at all. There is nothing wrong with saying the market is not behaving in a way that is immediately understandable, even to you.

best of luck,
Hugh

Quoting cesarnc
Hey all...

I'll be off forum in the upcoming days... It has been way to hard days to trade, fat profits here, lousy drawdowns there and it arrived the point where I just cannot chew other people's opinion anymore, either conflicting or not with mine. Making sense or not. I just lost the sense on how to judge them. And this is affecting me in such a way money does not allow.

Please, no offence intended to anyone. Do not take this personally.

But in these last days there has been way too much shoulds and woulds and will and wont's for all I can take and in the end of the day, it comes to be my account on the line.

I was taking it well, actually, but now the armaggedon prophets took over the forum, literally. Speculators are doomed, skies gonna fall, carry trades are over, China is going to explode. Way too much M. Night Shyamalanish to be taken seriouly.

And worst of all, the prophecies are exceeding the daily range in size, so just helping to blur my judgement even more.

It would be easy if the currencies were acting like doomed, so I could just trade them. But they are not.

I'm in de-FF-xication period.

For those who care to know, I'm long UJ, GJ, EJ and short USDCAD. While the apocalypse does not show up I'd rather stay with the trend.

Good trades to all...
"The real genius is knowing when to stop." - Marc Faber
  • #4,877
  • May 24, 2007 7:14pm May 24, 2007 7:14pm
Quoting cesarnc
Tough day for NY stock market. Dow Jones & CO. got whacked.

Big push on strong Home Sales ("hey!!! Econonomy is doing fine!!!), replaced by "Damn, no rate cut anymore".

+80 then, now close to -100.

10 yr Treasury surged. Dollar pairs impossible to figure out, carry trades in the edge of the cliff but still proud on their tuxedos. UJ absent.

This morning's $ 2trillion question "where are we going" is worth $ 4 trillion as the day goes.
John F. Carter, author of "Mastering the Trade" and daytrader says the best tool in his arsenal is finding out what mainstream people think about the markets, a particular stock or investment opportunity. He wrote his book around 2004 and mentioned that everyone from from everywhere was buying up real estate "site unseen" as every magazine and book said "buy buy buy" and "the sky's the limit". He said the last thing he'd do when he was writing his book would be to buy a house because of this. Well, look what happened to the housing market shortly after that. He also talked about how when his mom asked him about Google because she read in a financial magazine about how its stock would soar. Because of this, John Carter shorted the Google stock, and the stock plummeted a few weeks later due to a poor earnings report.

I'm thinking of moving to a cheaper state and buying a house and my girlfriend, who doesn't follow anything about financial markets, economy or housing markets said, "I don't think it's a good time to buy, everything I hear is that it's the worst time to buy a house." Well, is it time to buy then? I sure as hell wouldn't buy when everyone's saying it's time to buy, because then it would be too late and you'll be like those poor schlubs who forfeited their deposit money on building a home......site unseen. Just yesterday someone in my office asked me about investing in small cap stocks right now because the markets are doing so well. The first thing that came to mind is that I better make sure I dump all my small caps immediately.

The point of this long, and probably pointless rant, is that it seems that everyone knows right now is a time to buy, and the sky's the limit (except US real estate). Right when the GBP/USD hit 2.0100 so called GBP/USD experts (I can name two) said it might hit 2.1000 soon. Well we all know what happened to the pair after it hit 2.0100. I'm a newbie, so I don't know much, but this is my perspective when the "sky's the limit" attitude hits the mainstream. I'm short on the UJ at 121.70 and the GJ at 241.40 with SL's at 80 and 100 pips with PT's at about 250 pips. The USD/JPY seems to be out of gas, there's bearish divergence on the daily, 8hr and 4hr charts and there's too many signs reminiscent of past selloffs.

Okay, I just wanted to get this in writing and posted so if I'm right I can claim my $2 trillion from cesarnc
  • #4,878
  • May 24, 2007 7:16pm May 24, 2007 7:16pm
Cesarnc,

Wish you the best luck in trading the forex.

Trader8686
  • #4,879
  • May 24, 2007 8:24pm May 24, 2007 8:24pm
i am tempted to steal his av. been eyeing it for month. this looks like the right time.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,880
  • May 24, 2007 8:31pm May 24, 2007 8:31pm
Quoting bravado
i am tempted to steal his av. been eyeing it for month. this looks like the right time.
haha man you crack me up Brav.
USD Est Non Mortuus
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