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Profit on Fluctuation System: Hedged

  • #81
  • May 21, 2007 3:30pm May 21, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting billbss
Oanda pays $34.91. I looked it up this morning.
The last I heard, FXDD paid $40 something.
FXDD pays currently about $24.57 on GBP/JPY. I just checked my platform. Where did you get "$40 something"? That's way off.

Oanda pays throughout the day rather than just end of day (5pm ET) correct? $34.91 represents the aggregate amount if one was to hold from the very beginning to the very end of the day, correct? At Oanda, you can't, for example, get the full day's worth of Swap interest if you bought just before 5pm ET, correct?
  • #82
  • May 21, 2007 3:41pm May 21, 2007 3:41pm
Quoting billworld
FXDD pays currently about $24.57 on GBP/JPY. I just checked my platform. Where did you get "$40 something"? That's way off.

Oanda pays throughout the day rather than just end of day (5pm ET) correct? $34.91 represents the aggregate amount if one was to hold from the very beginning to the very end of the day, correct? At Oanda, you can't, for example, get the full day's worth of Swap interest if you bought just before 5pm ET, correct?
I got $40 something a day because the last time I checked - and its been awhile-thats what they paid. I believe it was $48.

I don't know Oanda's policies for payinig SWAPS.

If its as you say, it wouldn't matter anyway. These positions are long term.
  • #83
  • May 21, 2007 3:43pm May 21, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting billbss
I got $40 something a day because the last time I checked - and its been awhile-thats what they paid. I believe it was $48.

I don't know Oanda's policies for payinig SWAPS.

If its as you say, it wouldn't matter anyway. These positions are long term.
Double check Oanda's SWAP policy. I remember reading somewhere they put a limit on the # of dayd you can hold a single position and earn SWAP.
  • #84
  • May 21, 2007 3:47pm May 21, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting jeffreytp
Double check Oanda's SWAP policy. I remember reading somewhere they put a limit on the # of dayd you can hold a single position and earn SWAP.
I don't use Oanda anyway.

I quoted their rates the other day because they are easy to find on the web.
  • #85
  • May 21, 2007 9:48pm May 21, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting jeffreytp
Double check Oanda's SWAP policy. I remember reading somewhere they put a limit on the # of dayd you can hold a single position and earn SWAP.

Nah , I think you'll find you can carry as long as you like.
  • #86
  • May 22, 2007 9:20am May 22, 2007 9:20am
Quoting billbss
I got $40 something a day because the last time I checked - and its been awhile-thats what they paid. I believe it was $48.

I don't know Oanda's policies for payinig SWAPS.

If its as you say, it wouldn't matter anyway. These positions are long term.
FXDD paid $24.59 per standard lot on GBP/JPY yesterday. GBP/JPY has been at historical highs. I doubt they ever paid anything close to even $30 on GBP/JPY. You must have had more than 1 lot open which yielded the $48. No one pays that on a single lot.
  • #87
  • May 22, 2007 9:23am May 22, 2007 9:23am
Quoting billworld
FXDD paid $24.59 per standard lot on GBP/JPY yesterday. GBP/JPY has been at historical highs. I doubt they ever paid anything close to even $30 on GBP/JPY. You must have had more than 1 lot open which yielded the $48. No one pays that on a single lot.
No. They paid over $40 at one time. I know for a fact they did.
GBP/JPY being at historical highs has nothing to do with it.

Its the interest rate differential set by the central banks.
  • #88
  • May 22, 2007 10:58pm May 22, 2007 10:58pm
Quoting billbss
No. They paid over $40 at one time. I know for a fact they did.
GBP/JPY being at historical highs has nothing to do with it.

Its the interest rate differential set by the central banks.
When did FXDD pay over $40 on one standard lot on GBP/JPY?
  • #89
  • May 23, 2007 12:03am May 23, 2007 12:03am
Whatever happened to the discussion of the system the thread began with?
  • #90
  • May 23, 2007 10:18am May 23, 2007 10:18am
Quoting Stuartesque
Whatever happened to the discussion of the system the thread began with?
Some experienced traders pointed out valid issues. And, as with any thread, a bit of misinformation crept up which confuses things.
  • #91
  • May 24, 2007 12:27pm May 24, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting BaasHarm!
Just realized I uploaded an older version with a bug. Here's the right one.
Thanks for sharing the EA. No wonder the previous EA did'nt open any positions for two days.

One question. What should we put to "ratio" parameter? If we put 1, does it mean the EA will open buy 1 lot eur/usd and buy 1 lot usd/chf?
  • #92
  • May 24, 2007 2:45pm May 24, 2007 2:45pm
MikeJ,

I was hoping for an update this week, but I haven't heard a peep except for Monday when you were talking with Bliss about the whole thing.

If you take a look at the chart for the EUR/CHF, I see that it didn't do so well. It would seem that this week would have wiped out gains for the last week and a 1/2. I can only assume the "hedge" took a similar hit unless you changed up your strategy.

Anyway, some feedback on your account progress would be appreciated.
  • #93
  • May 24, 2007 3:19pm May 24, 2007 3:19pm
Hi Mrmikal, thanks for checking up on this.

I am currently in a drawdown of 3% for this week, so you are right in your assessment. I am, however, going to hold on to the position as 3% is not much. Will let you know when/if it recovers to profit.

Quoting mrmikal
MikeJ,

I was hoping for an update this week, but I haven't heard a peep except for Monday when you were talking with Bliss about the whole thing.

If you take a look at the chart for the EUR/CHF, I see that it didn't do so well. It would seem that this week would have wiped out gains for the last week and a 1/2. I can only assume the "hedge" took a similar hit unless you changed up your strategy.

Anyway, some feedback on your account progress would be appreciated.
  • #94
  • May 25, 2007 7:24pm May 25, 2007 7:24pm
can u tell me how many pips are u looking for?
i was hunting 5 pips, whats the max that u got?
and now that u r in a 3% drawdown can u tell me how many pips are u negative?

ty very much
  • #95
  • May 25, 2007 9:14pm May 25, 2007 9:14pm
  •  Drphu
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Take2Trades and call me in Morning! | 31 Posts
Swap Rates Pay Differently Depending What Your Base Currency Is.
"Make Life's Reality a Dream Come True!" DrPhu
  • #96
  • May 26, 2007 12:06pm May 26, 2007 12:06pm
Quoting mrmikal
MikeJ,

I was hoping for an update this week, but I haven't heard a peep except for Monday when you were talking with Bliss about the whole thing.

If you take a look at the chart for the EUR/CHF, I see that it didn't do so well. It would seem that this week would have wiped out gains for the last week and a 1/2. I can only assume the "hedge" took a similar hit unless you changed up your strategy.

Anyway, some feedback on your account progress would be appreciated.
By using the hedge calculator, You can still survive and profit even if the eur/chf is trending down. I attached chart and my statement, check my trade positions on May 21 to May 25.

This was taught by True North Concepts when I asked them how to deal with drawdown. Their answer is reverse hedge, they said you must have little knowledge on basic trading to utilize it.

The technique is, if you think eur/chf will thread down for a long period, just like my attached chart, I plot a channel on a 4hr chart, the indicators gave a good signal that it will retrace after it hit the upper channel.

Now, if you saw this scenario, use the hedge calculator, calculate the usual way. But instead of allocating 2 buy positions, you sell it. that's the reverse hedge that they taught. And last week, indeed I was able to experience what they taught me.

This is also why I'm not in fovor of using EA to trade with this kind of strategy, there's human discretion need.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20-25 trade ok.jpg Size: 136 KB
Attached Image
  • #97
  • May 26, 2007 12:49pm May 26, 2007 12:49pm
Uh...yeah, Sam...

The original point of this was simply using a dual pair trade while taking 1% profit and immediately reopening the position.

My counter-point was that if you were just trying to capture 1% and then reopen this pair without any other trading strategy involved, you'd be underperforming the buy of the EUR/CHF.

What you suggest is obviously a viable alternative, but irrelevant.

The situation is this, if you're going to buy, close and then reopen a buy, then you might as well buy and hold indefinitely. The only advantage to closing a position would be to capture a downward movement AFTER you closed your position. This would enable you to "cover the same profit levels" that you've already reached. Otherwise, you're simplying assuming a high-watermark profit level, at which point you might as well hold since the only way to gain profit is for the hedged pair to move higher.

This point was lost on the followers of this thread...which is why I was trying to figure out if the logic had set in since there was a rundown in the EUR/CHF. My figuring was that the hedged pair was simply an amplified trade of the EUR/CHF...so, assuming that the EUR/CHF erased its gains from the previous week, it was further proof that the hedge posted isn't doing so hot, mirroring the performace of the EUR/CHF or worse.
  • #98
  • May 26, 2007 2:18pm May 26, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting sam1
By using the hedge calculator, You can still survive and profit even if the eur/chf is trending down. I attached chart and my statement, check my trade positions on May 21 to May 25.

This was taught by True North Concepts when I asked them how to deal with drawdown. Their answer is reverse hedge, they said you must have little knowledge on basic trading to utilize it.

The technique is, if you think eur/chf will thread down for a long period, just like my attached chart, I plot a channel on a 4hr chart, the indicators gave a good signal that it will retrace after it hit the upper channel.

Now, if you saw this scenario, use the hedge calculator, calculate the usual way. But instead of allocating 2 buy positions, you sell it. that's the reverse hedge that they taught. And last week, indeed I was able to experience what they taught me.

This is also why I'm not in fovor of using EA to trade with this kind of strategy, there's human discretion need.

so your target is around 20 pips? can u tell me whats the max of drawdown tha tu got? in pips
  • #99
  • May 26, 2007 3:27pm May 26, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting mrmikal
Uh...yeah, Sam...

The original point of this was simply using a dual pair trade while taking 1% profit and immediately reopening the position.
The thread starter state that if we have any comment, we can post it. On post #38 of this thread, I shared my view to his idea by posting a link to the thread I started of discussion folder. I include your name in it. (But some how. I can't find that thread.) Here's the link: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post1445682

So basically, this thread is for improving the idea of the thread starter, which I think my post above is relevant to. I do agree with you, I'm not in fovor of 1% take profit.

Quoting hazz
so your target is around 20 pips? can u tell me whats the max of drawdown tha tu got? in pips
No, I don't have a fixed target for this strategy, I'll wait for signals from the indicators, fibos, trendline before I close any positions.

I don't count pips, it will eat up a lot of time when counting pips if you are hedging 2 pairs. If you are referring to the pips in eur/chf chart since I'm using it as a barometer, the eur/chf do exactly move tick by tick, pips by pips with the hedged pairs. So, you can't count eur/chf pips as your pips profit in eur/usd and usd/chf.

Drawdown would reduce significantly since I'm getting in at a right time when hedging. I trade $3000+ equity, and the max drawdown that I experienced is around $200. that's 6.7% of my equity balance.
  • #100
  • May 27, 2007 12:12pm May 27, 2007 12:12pm
Quoting hazz
so it aways come back? i got some good indicators to find trends on E/C but i prefer to have a target, thats why i was asking about whats the averege number of pips that u got when u close the positions. i was doing it hunting for 4-5 since i have no idea how long it can go yet.
It always come back or rather the price should always come back if you take the long positions, since it is a carry trade pair. If you have a reliable indicator that can point you to the right trend/directions, I'm sure that indicator can also indicates possible of reversal or weakening of moves, that's where you exit a trade.

You can also use strong resistance levels for your exits, like fibos, channel or trendlines. It is better to exit at those level than getting in and out of the market with just 4-5 pips profit, gaining back those "spread cost" everytime you hedge a position will eat a lot of your time. Just my 2 cents....

Well, but on the other hand. If you use 30- 40% of your equity to hedge, you might do what you're doing, targetting 4-5 pips. But that's risky.
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