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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,841
  • May 24, 2007 9:47am May 24, 2007 9:47am
Quoting 4xefx
Check with your broker, they should even have it on their website. GBP/JPY has one of the highest + interest on a long. FXDD = 24. + per lot (2.40+ on a mini)
thanks for replies pabloski & 4xefx.

still feeling noobish. trading atm using spread betting rather than lots. i've got a long opened at £1 per pip...how would i work out the overnight interest?

thanks again
  • #4,842
  • May 24, 2007 9:53am May 24, 2007 9:53am
No offense, but we shouldnt go off topic. You may ask any further questions in the appropriate section.
  • #4,843
  • May 24, 2007 9:58am May 24, 2007 9:58am
Dow Jones reversing the whole damn move up.
  • #4,844
  • May 24, 2007 9:59am May 24, 2007 9:59am
Quoting pabloski
No offense, but we shouldnt go off topic. You may ask any further questions in the appropriate section.
fair point
  • #4,845
  • May 24, 2007 10:17am May 24, 2007 10:17am
Hey Cesernc,

What u mean by "I don't call for carry trades selloff until the first 300 pips are gone."?

I'm a bit confused with the statement. sorry

Quoting cesarnc
I don't call for carry trades selloff until the first 300 pips are gone. China raised rates, raised taxes, talked to paulson, widened Yuan's band and GJ is off the top by 40 pips only.

Until the long called armaggedon does not come, I'm a compulsive buyer off the bottom.
  • #4,846
  • May 24, 2007 10:24am May 24, 2007 10:24am
Quoting newjersey24
Hey Cesernc,

What u mean by "I don't call for carry trades selloff until the first 300 pips are gone."?
I'm a bit confused with the statement. sorry
That carry trades wont unwind till we see any sign of considerable yen strenght.

JPY remains weak, so carry traders should continue playing.
  • #4,847
  • May 24, 2007 10:30am May 24, 2007 10:30am
Quoting newjersey24
Hey Cesernc,

What u mean by "I don't call for carry trades selloff until the first 300 pips are gone."?

I'm a bit confused with the statement. sorry
Well, last Friday, GJ fell 200 pips and I've read:

- END OF the carry trades
- February-like selloff on the cards.

Few days after, GJ put almost 400 pips up
  • #4,848
  • Edited 10:58am May 24, 2007 10:44am | Edited 10:58am
And also,

Since I got started with carry trades - after realizing what was under the Feb Chinese, it is crystal clear that the carry trades are "risk perception" driven.

So much, that even the recent red prints in Dow Jones, which had the profit taking stamp rather than panic-driven jump out, had poor impact in the carries .

There is one very important thing on the table here. Let's get it from super low 221.0 in February: since then, there are big.. not big... huge.. not huge... ELEPHANTLY GIGANT money running about 2,000 pips up PLUS an amazingly attractive rates differential that only tends to get BIGGER

As someone mentioned previously in the thread, that will take Tokyo to be swallowed by 3 simultanous earthquakes + China dropping a nuke in the moon for this piece of money give up the huge gains...

We are happy to see the dimes popping up in our daily swaps, you can figure the billion dollar running this pair.

So 100 pips down here and there or daily profit takings are not to be taken as the end of the world as we know it, imo.
  • #4,849
  • May 24, 2007 10:46am May 24, 2007 10:46am
Oh man, Got it!!!

I thought the info i put previously should put pressure to elevate the value of the Yen.

I guess, should have waited for confirmation like increase interest rates.


But lemme ask your this. In Feb didnt the BOJ just announced without being scheduled of the rate hike? Didnt it catch many traders, investors off guard?


When this had happen, I was very much focuses on GPD/USD at that time and missed the whole sell off.
  • #4,850
  • May 24, 2007 10:53am May 24, 2007 10:53am
Quoting newjersey24
Oh man, Got it!!!

I thought the info i put previously should put pressure to elevate the value of the Yen.

I guess, should have waited for confirmation like increase interest rates.


But lemme ask your this. In Feb didnt the BOJ just announced without being scheduled of the rate hike? Didnt it catch many traders, investors off guard?


When this had happen, I was very much focuses on GPD/USD at that time and missed the whole sell off.
Two factors weighted in Feb's selloff:

- It was about the end of Japan FY, when massive amount of Yen was expected to be repatriated (bought back, thus valued). So carry trades stood on hold because the yen buying was hitting the market off-guard. The carry trade "redemption" was scheduled to get back shortly after.

- Right at this momemnt, Chinese government acted to kick the speculators out of the stock market. Problem is that there were so much speculative money in Shanghai that the selloff ran out of control and triggered a chain reaction that shook up the whole world.

The odds for 2 events hitting the market so heavily in the same week? You won't find a bookie to talk to...
  • #4,851
  • Edited 12:10pm May 24, 2007 11:04am | Edited 12:10pm
im also sure more than never now about carries health.my only problem now is where to keep my stops, as it seems there is a little retracement/range going on. any ideas?

Edit: curios market sentiment today after US news. In my opinion, Uy and Gy seems pretty bottoming, so ill put a stop around 240.50.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,852
  • May 24, 2007 12:00pm May 24, 2007 12:00pm
Dow Jones just printed -50 points (!!!) after a +80 start up. And GJ barely makes too much below 241, (thank you God!)

Feet and blood at glacial temperatures here, but the stock market is not being taken as a run-for-your-life trading day.

240 was a tough nut to crack on the way up and we are holding 90 pips above it. In that sense, GJ is hanging above a critial area, that could have inspired profit taking (as 164 did to EJ) but has not.

Japan CPI coming up in a few hours to add to the uncertainty, but odds are still favouring GJ longs....
  • #4,853
  • May 24, 2007 12:31pm May 24, 2007 12:31pm
Some technical here...

GBPJPY peacefully consolidating in 23.6 Fib level of this recent uptrend. Next target considering this retracement is @ 243 (blue line).
Attached Image
  • #4,854
  • May 24, 2007 12:36pm May 24, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting pabloski
Some technical here...

GBPJPY peacefully consolidating in 23.6 Fib level of this recent uptrend. Next target considering this retracement is @ 243 (blue line).
Wow, I liked that one... We can then expect 38% fib to hold a possible JPY bullish outcome later on.

All in all, retracement to 23% suggests continuation, indeed...
  • #4,855
  • May 24, 2007 12:41pm May 24, 2007 12:41pm
Dont understand what you all mean,is it going up or down? I am in a sell and in 10 pips profit should i run?
  • #4,856
  • May 24, 2007 12:58pm May 24, 2007 12:58pm
Quoting Lbabe
Dont understand what you all mean,is it going up or down? I am in a sell and in 10 pips profit should i run?
i know right? they think we are all technical wizards like they are. is it going up or down. that's what i want to know too, so i can know what to do.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,857
  • May 24, 2007 1:04pm May 24, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting bravado
i know right? they think we are all technical wizards like they are. is it going up or down. that's what i want to know too, so i can know what to do.
This is not about Tech B.S. Carry trades are on hold as is the rest of the market. But among the kaleidoscope of news and charts and Elliots and "It wills", sanity emerged where it was less expected: carry trades holding well at high levels.... Up or down? Up is favoured.

FAVOURED, likely, odds in favour of. I don't "It will" forex...
  • #4,858
  • May 24, 2007 1:13pm May 24, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting bravado
i know right? they think we are all technical wizards like they are. is it going up or down. that's what i want to know too, so i can know what to do.

Remember the trend is your friend. The trend is long, 240 is holding, price above 100 ema, JPY CPI is usually doesn't change much (news later) it seems to look and smell like a duck.... long looks favorable.

But then again, who know's when duck hunting season starts....
  • #4,859
  • May 24, 2007 1:47pm May 24, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting cesarnc
This is not about Tech B.S. Carry trades are on hold as is the rest of the market. But among the kaleidoscope of news and charts and Elliots and "It wills", sanity emerged where it was less expected: carry trades holding well at high levels.... Up or down? Up is favoured.

FAVOURED, likely, odds in favour of. I don't "It will" forex...
ok so it will go up then?
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,860
  • May 24, 2007 1:50pm May 24, 2007 1:50pm
Quoting 4xefx
Remember the trend is your friend.
this means extra shopping on christmas time.

i'd like to think my relationship with trend is strictly professional.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
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