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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #17,041
  • Jul 13, 2023 6:18am Jul 13, 2023 6:18am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote}Looks like you're going on breaks as well as potential reversals during the time windows you like, with more emphasis on SR and less on PA, yes?
A good question. S/R or/and PA.
There are some possibilities like S/R > PA, S/R<PA, S/R=PA or S/R unrelated to PA
Everyone wights differently the importance of insights that are gained from all the available data and charts.
While there are common "things" applied to the majority of traded instruments, there are also some specific "things" related to a given instrument and/or a group of instruments. On the top of that there is an obvious semantic problem. A simple example, what does PA mean and how a given definition and understanding of it can potentially be applied in relation to many other factors, not excluding the emotional sate of a trader.
Having access to a very large amount of data, different TFs and the way that information is processed, it is no surprise that one can easily be well confused.

Possibly a good starting point is the term "loss". In trading it is a less complicated term, and limiting loss is an important concept applied to trading. If one tries to avoid loss, my advice is not to consider trading at all.
Would like to write much much more, but nothing of it would be new, and it has been well explained on countless occasions.
Wishing many good trades to all!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #17,042
  • Jul 13, 2023 1:14pm Jul 13, 2023 1:14pm
M1 RTY RUSSELL 2000

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It had to happen!

For some reason today, I ignored my long standing sacrosanct rules and tried to walk on water!

First mistake - I didn't reload my latest template which had my BIC and SIC on.

2nd mistake - I just traded candles.

3rd mistake - I did not wait for the candle to close and entered on a moving candle.

4th mistake - Entered a second trade but on a closed candle BUT without analysing what I did wrong - probably greed -fomo.

5th mistake - Did not adjust my number of contracts for an initial trade and still had on my regular number of contracts.

6th mistake - Did not wait for PA to resolve itself/wait 15 minutes from NY Open before my first trade.

All shown in the yellow rectangle

By this time I was in such a mess mentally I could not see straight. My initial reaction was to shut everything down and walk away but I cannot remember when I last had a losing day especially with a big loss so I made another cup of coffee and started analysing the mess.

I was at the point where I didn't have confidence in myself or my strategy and missed my "normal" entry - the close over NY Open.

It wasn't until 7:22am where I got my confidence back when I identified where a BIC will be but still not enough to take the trade. Finally, at 7:29am, with confirmation from the Strat Shadow, I entered my next trade.

From then on, it took me the next trades until 8:15am to get above break even and make a minuscule of profit.

By this time I felt like I had been taken for a ride by a Honky Tonk Woman without enjoying it!

Inserted Video


Since volume and volatility was already low today and with RTY being a low volume Index anyway, I endured more than normal slippage so this is the end of my trading career with RTY!

It took me a while to summon up the courage to post this and even now I still feel jittery so let's hope I get this out of my system.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,043
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:08pm Jul 13, 2023 5:08pm
Quoting Strat
M1 RTY RUSSELL 2000 {image} It had to happen!
Love it - you got your mind right, hopped back in the saddle, and gently rode her into submission!

I will add to your story, as I believe I understand why I hadn't been profitable trading manually up until now. I simply wasn't paying close enough attention / not really caring about the trades, and would try to salvage the mess I had made, without adequately understanding/caring about the reason for the mess. My algos are running 100X the capital, so subjectively playing with pennies made me flippant. Anyway, taking it seriously now, I have 1-3 losers daily, and days are at least 90% profitable. Even then, if I analyze why a losing day occurred, it generally boils down to my error - mostly from thinking (the worst), not following rules/parameters, or falling in love with a direction. I feel I have enough profitable time under the belt now to kick up the volume for more meaningful profits. Thanks Strat!
  • #17,044
  • Edited 6:32pm Jul 13, 2023 6:19pm | Edited 6:32pm
As mentioned yesterday, I have a bullish bias on the higher time frames. I am anticipating price will trade up into the gap on the weekly chart. NQ has already traded up to (and filled) its equivalent so I'm expecting ES to follow suit

We fell short by a couple of ticks today so that will continue to be my bias going into tomorrow's trading

I took this trade during the NY PM earlier today, this was my thinking...

we had an energetic move up at the beginning of the PM session (1), I believe this was a sucker play

price came back aggressively, on all those traders who chased it up (2) taking them out, before resuming higher. I tried to wait for confirmation before entering, not the prettiest entry but managed to snatch 5 handles

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  • #17,045
  • Jul 14, 2023 10:19am Jul 14, 2023 10:19am
M1 NQ

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Story so far as NQ enters into consolidation

EDIT: Cropped first image too short

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,046
  • Jul 14, 2023 12:37pm Jul 14, 2023 12:37pm
M1 NQ



I thought I was done for the day but after a quick shufti at the chart after breakfast, there are some trades you just cannot turn down!

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For those who have no idea why I took it:

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,047
  • Edited 8:38pm Jul 14, 2023 6:25pm | Edited 8:38pm
NY PM 5 handle trade

This was my thinking today...

large range bullish week + weekly gap objective reached. Therefore being Friday afternoon, I'm expecting some kind of retracement back inside the weekly range, therefore shorts favored

5 minute: NQ failing to make higher highs with ES

1 minute: PASR


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  • #17,048
  • Jul 15, 2023 1:34am Jul 15, 2023 1:34am
Hi Strat!Can you please share this template?
THX
Quoting Strat
M1 RTY RUSSELL 2000 {image} It had to happen! For some reason today, I ignored my long standing sacrosanct rules and tried to walk on water! First mistake - I didn't reload my latest template which had my BIC and SIC on. 2nd mistake - I just traded candles. 3rd mistake - I did not wait for the candle to close and entered on a moving candle. 4th mistake - Entered a second trade but on a closed candle BUT without analysing what I did wrong - probably greed -fomo. 5th mistake - Did not adjust my number of contracts for an initial trade and still had...
Find it The Best Entry Points
  • #17,049
  • Jul 15, 2023 8:47am Jul 15, 2023 8:47am
Quoting p1pThief
{quote} Yes - a bit of everything... most of my trading arsenal has been learnt here. I do look at a couple of other things too but I know Strat thinks its BS so ill keep those thoughts from the thread Here is an example of a very slow, boring, 5 handle trade I took on the ES at todays London open (all concepts learnt here) My higher time frame bias is bullish, so favoring longs 15m (Big boss) made a low, lower-low, and then a higher-low 5m (Boss) broke structure 1m (worker) large bullish candle breaking structure,...
I do look at a couple of other things too but I know Strat thinks its BS so ill keep those thoughts from the thread

No, please share these - the Market is dynamic but unfortunately I am not, I am just stuck in my old ways and need to keep on learning to keep up with modern advances in trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,050
  • Jul 15, 2023 9:00am Jul 15, 2023 9:00am
Quoting p1pThief
As mentioned yesterday, I have a bullish bias on the higher time frames. I am anticipating price will trade up into the gap on the weekly chart. NQ has already traded up to (and filled) its equivalent so I'm expecting ES to follow suit We fell short by a couple of ticks today so that will continue to be my bias going into tomorrow's trading I took this trade during the NY PM earlier today, this was my thinking... we had an energetic move up at the beginning of the PM session (1), I believe this was a sucker play price came back aggressively, on...
Hi p1pThief,

I am anticipating price will trade up into the gap on the weekly chart. NQ has already traded up to (and filled) its equivalent

Where do you see the gap on NQ? I don't see any gaps on my data - see my Weekly NQ chart

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I like your analysis and reasoning, please keep posting. Thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,051
  • Jul 15, 2023 9:24am Jul 15, 2023 9:24am
Quoting p1pThief
NY PM 5 handle trade This was my thinking today... large range bullish week + weekly gap objective reached. Therefore being Friday afternoon, I'm expecting some kind of retracement back inside the weekly range, therefore shorts favored 5 minute: NQ failing to make higher highs with ES 1 minute: PASR {image}
Hi p1pThief,

5 minute: NQ failing to make higher highs with ES

Have you found a reliable relationship between ES and NQ?

I'm expecting some kind of retracement back inside the weekly range, therefore shorts favored

Spot on!

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,052
  • Jul 16, 2023 7:32am Jul 16, 2023 7:32am
Quoting Strat
{quote} Have you found a reliable relationship between ES and NQ?
The top spots in ES are the top spots in NQ, and make up virtually all of the gains since April, so for anything other than micro TF's, they are very highly correlated. Using one to predict the other is silly though - for the exact reason given above - if one is lagging the other, it's because of the variation in breakdown of the indices, and those differences, by definition are what is lagging the other. Obviously, AAPL is doing the same thing in each index... So, by using correlation to predict one vs the other, you are effectively pitting a lesser known S&P component vs a lesser known NQ component. Or, another way of looking at it, you are finding a reason to do what you already know the top components are doing - going up, and are timing it with a correlative aspect of the lesser known components - not good. The only caveat to that is if one makes a large technical break, which may cause a reaction that spurs movement in the other.
  • #17,053
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:20am Jul 16, 2023 9:20am
Quoting Mdjq8792
{quote} I'll gladly do an updated summary, as a wise man once said: Repitition is the father of learning. Maybe @bistolis can confirm my info is correct once I have something presentable. I suggest we do that via private messages to not clutter the chat and maybe cause confusion. Happy trading week and green pips to all.
I'll gladly do an updated summary, as a wise man once said: Repitition is the father of learning. Maybe @bistolis can confirm my info is correct once I have something presentable. I suggest we do that via private messages to not clutter the chat and maybe cause confusion. Happy trading week and green pips to all.

Just curious - what happened?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,054
  • Jul 16, 2023 9:24am Jul 16, 2023 9:24am
Quoting Max74Italy
{quote} HI, I'm trying to learn, I'm still very far from the method in its entirety, also because there are thousands of posts to read, I'm just slowly trying to get an idea based on the summary I've read several times on the analysis that must be done BEFORE to make any entry. If this type of analysis that I have done is correct, the idea (mine) would be to wait on the 1 minute timeframe for a return to the strat shadow (I don't like to enter when the price is too far from the averages 20 and 72) (or the line of pasr) for a pulback.
the analysis that must be done BEFORE to make any entry. If this type of analysis that I have done is correct, the idea (mine) would be to wait on the 1 minute timeframe for a return to the strat shadow

What happened? You were doing so good
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,055
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:25am Jul 16, 2023 10:25am
NQ WEEKLY CONTROL CANDLES (WCC)

p1pThief sparked my attention to my Weekly Control Candles again

Previously I believed I did not need these for my M1 trading - now I wished I had paid attention to them.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,056
  • Jul 16, 2023 10:28am Jul 16, 2023 10:28am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} The top spots in ES are the top spots in NQ, and make up virtually all of the gains since April, so for anything other than micro TF's, they are very highly correlated. Using one to predict the other is silly though - for the exact reason given above - if one is lagging the other, it's because of the variation in breakdown of the indices, and those differences, by definition are what is lagging the other. Obviously, AAPL is doing the same thing in each index... So, by using correlation to predict one vs the other, you are effectively pitting...
Thanks Barbaresco, that was my observation too but I would still like to read what p1pThief does/sees
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,057
  • Jul 16, 2023 1:14pm Jul 16, 2023 1:14pm
Quoting Strat
NQ WEEKLY CONTROL CANDLES (WCC) p1pThief sparked my attention to my Weekly Control Candles again Previously I believed I did not need these for my M1 trading - now I wished I had paid attention to them. {image}
hi strat, how can you use wcc in 1m trading?
i suppose it's useful if you hold a trade longer or if the price is at the high / low of the wcc, etc
  • #17,058
  • Edited 11:25pm Jul 16, 2023 2:50pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting Strat
{quote} Hi p1pThief, I am anticipating price will trade up into the gap on the weekly chart. NQ has already traded up to (and filled) its equivalent Where do you see the gap on NQ? I don't see any gaps on my data - see my Weekly NQ chart {image} I like your analysis and reasoning, please keep posting. Thank you.
Hi Strat

If you open up the June contract for NQ you can see the 2 x gaps. June, because NQ traded through its 2nd gap in May

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  • #17,059
  • Edited 11:26pm Jul 16, 2023 3:10pm | Edited 11:26pm
Quoting Strat
{quote} Hi p1pThief, 5 minute: NQ failing to make higher highs with ES Have you found a reliable relationship between ES and NQ? I'm expecting some kind of retracement back inside the weekly range, therefore shorts favored Spot on! {image}
5 minute: NQ failing to make higher highs with ES

If your idea / bias of where price is going, is correct (which was the case on Friday.) Then yes, id say it is very reliable traded as a tool with PASR

If you blindly trade the divergence with no narrative, then it is a losers' game
  • #17,060
  • Jul 17, 2023 1:00pm Jul 17, 2023 1:00pm
M1 NQ

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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