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Power of Two System

  • #481
  • Jul 15, 2023 2:18pm Jul 15, 2023 2:18pm
Quoting Bazenga
{quote} 2 or 3 trades a week are fine, if the win rate can be improved. Listen, which software are you using for your backtest? If it is Soft4fx, then you could send me your backtest simulation file, and I can go through those 24 trades you've taken, and probably detail out the common conditions I see in them here. I'm pretty good at breaking down abstract ideas into easier to follow storylines or set of instructions.
Hi again Bazenga, Yes I’m using Soft4fx, how can I send you the file?
Send me a PM?
But Now I have to go out with my family, and I will contact you tomorrow if that is ok?
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  • #482
  • Jul 15, 2023 2:24pm Jul 15, 2023 2:24pm
Quoting El1000
{quote} Hi again Bazenga, Yes I’m using Soft4fx, how can I send you the file? Send me a PM? But Now I have to go out with my family, and I will contact you tomorrow if that is ok? {image}
Yes, that's okay: we can communicate more tomorrow. I'll send you a PM in the meanwhile.

If I learn more from you that I can share with this thread, I'll do so with your permission.

Edited to add: That's a pretty good equity curve you have there. Hope we can all get to understand what additional ingredients you've added to your system .
  • #483
  • Jul 15, 2023 3:24pm Jul 15, 2023 3:24pm
Quoting Outcast918
{quote} oh that sucks GBPUSD edit: WIN +2R Yeah the whole strategy was built for a particular trading view fractals indicator with some edited settings.
In light of the recent posts mate, you would probably one of the best guys to ask, how have you found it so far? And how was your experience in the paid community?
  • #484
  • Jul 15, 2023 5:21pm Jul 15, 2023 5:21pm
Hi Bazenga, I went back to check the red news events. Because I know that Scott and his gang do not open trades just before high impact news events. So I basically add the following rules
1) Do not open trades in KZ if high impact news are near.
2) If have trades from previous session or previous day that are still running and haven't reached TP, close them before news.
Doing this has filtered out more losers than winners.

Quoting Bazenga
{quote} Hello Tibetian. I'm glad you've raised this issue. Some 15 days ago, I had made a similar comment, on post 86 (you can click through to it). I started backtesting data from 2015, and the results were definitely unimpressive. Like a streak of 7 to 10 consecutive loses, and several months each ending in a net loss. It was very surprising, but I decided to stick with it a bit more, and see if I was missing something. Since then, there have been a few more videos released...
  • #485
  • Jul 15, 2023 10:17pm Jul 15, 2023 10:17pm
Has avoiding trades around red news improved your win rate to the point of making the system viable? Have you backtested this enough?

Quoting Tibetian
Hi Bazenga, I went back to check the red news events. Because I know that Scott and his gang do not open trades just before high impact news events. So I basically add the following rules 1) Do not open trades in KZ if high impact news are near. 2) If have trades from previous session or previous day that are still running and haven't reached TP, close them before news. Doing this has filtered out more losers than winners. {quote}
  • #486
  • Jul 16, 2023 12:28am Jul 16, 2023 12:28am
I'm backtesting on EURUSD, have yet to get a significant amount of trades, but an interesting pattern is emerging. When I reduce the target to 2:1 rather than using the 3:1, I actually won all the trades I backtested. Using 3:1 will make me lose them.
Also, I traded 5 times (forward test) this past week, and I got 4 out 5 wins ( The wins are: 2 are 2RR and 2 are 3RR).

So you guys may want to consider just seeing if reducing the target to 2RRs would help improve the winrate, and therefore, the profibility of this system.
  • #487
  • Jul 16, 2023 12:52am Jul 16, 2023 12:52am
Quoting HazHazHaz
I'm backtesting on EURUSD, have yet to get a significant amount of trades, but an interesting pattern is emerging. When I reduce the target to 2:1 rather than using the 3:1, I actually won all the trades I backtested. Using 3:1 will make me lose them. Also, I traded 5 times (forward test) this past week, and I got 4 out 5 wins ( The wins are: 2 are 2RR and 2 are 3RR). So you guys may want to consider just seeing if reducing the target to 2RRs would help improve the winrate, and therefore, the profibility of this system.
Hey Haz. Questions:

1. What tiime period did you backtest?
2. How many trades did you take during that backtesting period?
3. Have you tweaked the system in any way - like by not taking counter trend trades, or not taking extended sweeps, etc?
  • #488
  • Jul 16, 2023 2:01am Jul 16, 2023 2:01am
Quoting Bazenga
{quote} Hey Haz. Questions: 1. What tiime period did you backtest? 2. How many trades did you take during that backtesting period? 3. Have you tweaked the system in any way - like by not taking counter trend trades, or not taking extended sweeps, etc?
Disclaimer: I'm new to backtesting and still learning, so I may be doing many mistakes.
1. From May this year to the current day on EURUSD.
2. Only 8 for now ahaha . I'm working on it!
3. No. I just followed the rules. I take both counter trades and extended sweeps.

Are there any free backtesting software I can utilise, where I can place trades like it is in real time? Any tips to make this easier? My results so far is as attached (in blue are forward/in real time trades).
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  • #489
  • Jul 16, 2023 2:16am Jul 16, 2023 2:16am
Quoting HazHazHaz
{quote} Disclaimer: I'm new to backtesting and still learning, so I may be doing many mistakes. 1. From May this year to the current day on EURUSD. 2. Only 8 for now ahaha . I'm working on it! 3. No. I just followed the rules. I take both counter trades and extended sweeps. Are there any free backtesting software I can utilise, where I can place trades like it is in real time? Any tips to make this easier? My results so far is as attached (in blue are forward/in real time trades). {image}
Thanks for your feedback. Continue doing more backtests. I consider backtests to have statistical validity when they are at least 100 trades. But in this TPOT system, due to its high risk reward ratio, and the high advertised win ratio (between 40% and 67%, depending on which Scott's video you watch ), I'd say that even with as low as 30 trades, one should at least be net positive, and ideally be above 10% profit, working with a 1% risk per trade.

I'll look through the time period you've specified, and see if I get results close to yours. This system is very mechanical, and people trading in the same time period should get similar (or almost similar) results.

I currently use Soft4fx for my backtests. It used to cost 99USD, but now I see the price is 109USD, for a lifetime licence. Worth it, in my opinion, if one is serious about eventually getting a viable Forex system. It saves a lot of time: you can simulate an year's worth of trades within a day, or even within an hour, depending on the system's complexity. With TPOT, I'm simulating a month in 60 - 90 minutes. And Soft4fx uses real, historical data, granulated at the tick level, from Dukascopy, with real spreads as they occurred in real time.
  • #490
  • Jul 16, 2023 2:25am Jul 16, 2023 2:25am
Quoting HazHazHaz
{quote} Disclaimer: I'm new to backtesting and still learning, so I may be doing many mistakes. 1. From May this year to the current day on EURUSD. 2. Only 8 for now ahaha . I'm working on it! 3. No. I just followed the rules. I take both counter trades and extended sweeps. Are there any free backtesting software I can utilise, where I can place trades like it is in real time? Any tips to make this easier? My results so far is as attached (in blue are forward/in real time trades). {image}
By the way, you could use FXBlue Simulator on Metatrader, if you want a completely free simulator.

You can download this simulator here. It is completely free. I think you only need to register with the website to get download access.

You can watch YouTube videos on how to use the simulator, to shorten your learning curve. A clip such as this one might start you off.

With FXBlue, you can afterwards upload your simulations to the website for deeper analysis of your trading strategy.
  • #491
  • Jul 16, 2023 2:27am Jul 16, 2023 2:27am
Quoting Bazenga
{quote} Thanks for your feedback. Continue doing more backtests. I consider backtests to have statistical validity when they are at least 100 trades. But in this TPOT system, due to its high risk reward ratio, and the high advertised win ratio (between 40% and 67%, depending on which Scott's video you watch ), I'd say that even with as low as 30 trades, one should at least be net positive, and ideally be above 10% profit, working with a 1% risk per trade. I'll look through the time period you've specified, and see if I get results close...
I shall look into it! Thank you and yes, I know it isn't much myself ahhaha.
I look forward to your results. Please if you may, to try the 2RR too and see if there is a difference.
  • #492
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:07am Jul 16, 2023 3:07am
I have only done June 2023 for EU and GU. Despite all those consecutive losses. June was a positive month for both.

If taking into account red news, filtering out some trades, GU was +9R in June. EU was +15R. I will confirm these figures again later.

It takes lot of time to backtest to make sure that all rules are followed. They have some strange rules in their paid mentorship, like the range of M15 cannot be too big, cannot be too far from the sweep, but they didn't specify how big is too big!

Also when you trade live there are other rules that you must follow, e.g. you stop trading after 2 or 3 consecutive losses.

Quoting Bazenga
Has avoiding trades around red news improved your win rate to the point of making the system viable? Have you backtested this enough? {quote}
  • #493
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:08am Jul 16, 2023 3:08am
Should be more trades than these. For June only, I got almost 50 trades on EU and GU

Quoting HazHazHaz
{quote} Disclaimer: I'm new to backtesting and still learning, so I may be doing many mistakes. 1. From May this year to the current day on EURUSD. 2. Only 8 for now ahaha . I'm working on it! 3. No. I just followed the rules. I take both counter trades and extended sweeps. Are there any free backtesting software I can utilise, where I can place trades like it is in real time? Any tips to make this easier? My results so far is as attached (in blue are forward/in real time trades). {image}
  • #494
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:22am Jul 16, 2023 3:22am
Quoting Tibetian
I have only done June 2023 for EU and GU. Despite all those consecutive losses. June was a positive month for both. If taking into account red news, filtering out some trades, GU was +9R in June. EU was +15R. I will confirm these figures again later. It takes lot of time to backtest to make sure that all rules are followed. They have some strange rules in their paid mentorship, like the range of M15 cannot be too big, cannot be too far from the sweep, but they didn't specify how big is too big! Also when you trade live there are other rules that...
Did you use a simulation software? If so, do you have an analysis of those trades you took for June: how many trades in total, how many trades won, the longest winning streak (consecutive wins), and losing streak, maximum drawdown from a peak, etc? Do you also have an equity curve, such as the one El1000 put up in post 481? All these data points helps one decide if this trading system can be used in a real world trading situation: whether, for instance, it can be fitted to the requirements of a particular prop firm.

What other criteria are you using to filter out the trades, other than the red news one?

Is there a way of objectively quantifying what they mean by a 15 min range that is "too big", or "too far from the sweep"? Because without such, then those terms are too vague to be useful in a real trading situation. They'd only create unnecessary anxiety.

And yeah, I had mentioned their "maximum losses per day" condition, in post 307.
  • #495
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:32am Jul 16, 2023 3:32am
Quoting HazHazHaz
{quote} I shall look into it! Thank you and yes, I know it isn't much myself ahhaha. I look forward to your results. Please if you may, to try the 2RR too and see if there is a difference.
Haz, what time zone is the server of the broker you are trading with in? I have the options of using GMT or New York Close in my simulator. The New York Close system isn't a fixed offset from GMT: rather, it simply ensures that the trading day ends at the close of the New York Session, and in practical terms, this means that its offset from GMT shifts by an hour each time there's a Dayllight Savings Time adjustment.

Also, are you following Scott's rule to not trade extra big candles? If so, how are you objectively quantifying what's a big candle?
  • #496
  • Edited 5:07am Jul 16, 2023 4:52am | Edited 5:07am
Quoting HazHazHaz
{quote} I shall look into it! Thank you and yes, I know it isn't much myself ahhaha. I look forward to your results. Please if you may, to try the 2RR too and see if there is a difference.
Theres instructions on the official soft4x site

Link to download:

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post13321395
  • #497
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:54am Jul 16, 2023 4:54am
Quoting Tibetian
I have only done June 2023 for EU and GU. Despite all those consecutive losses. June was a positive month for both. If taking into account red news, filtering out some trades, GU was +9R in June. EU was +15R. I will confirm these figures again later. It takes lot of time to backtest to make sure that all rules are followed. They have some strange rules in their paid mentorship, like the range of M15 cannot be too big, cannot be too far from the sweep, but they didn't specify how big is too big! Also when you trade live there are other rules that...
Are you subscribed to their paid mentorship?
  • #498
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:56am Jul 16, 2023 4:56am
Just to say, my trades this week have avoided major red news, if theres MRN in the session, then I avoid that pair in that session.
If im already in a trade coming into a session with MRN, then ive closed it 15 minutes before.
  • #499
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:56am Jul 16, 2023 4:56am
Quoting Paulscaff1
{quote} Theres instructions on the official soft4x site {file}
Soft4FX guess is not free.
Correct?
  • #500
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:59am Jul 16, 2023 4:59am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Soft4FX guess is not free. Correct?
Its not mate......but that one is, its a different version.
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