- #466
- Edited 1:37pm Jul 15, 2023 1:26pm | Edited 1:37pm
- | Joined Feb 2021 | Status: Trader | 717 Posts
{quote} Hello Tibetian. I'm glad you've raised this issue. Some 15 days ago, I had made a similar comment, on post 86 (you can click through to it). I started backtesting data from 2015, and the results were definitely unimpressive. Like a streak of 7 to 10 consecutive loses, and several months each ending in a net loss. It was very surprising, but I decided to stick with it a bit more, and see if I was missing something. Since then, there have been a few more videos released...
From this week ive taken 5 trades 2 wins, 3 losses, 40% WR, +3R.
Despite this though im still ultra sceptical about it being a working strategy, there just isnt enough TA in the method to result in profitability (in my opinion), but I will see the test through anyway out of foolishness
One thing that might have an effect on testing results is the types of trades taken....
When the strategy was first introduced, there was no SFT, and no counter trades, it was simply either FT or NFT, and also there was no internal 15M range trades either, these were added in at a later date. Im assuming these add-ons of SFT trades, Counter Trades and Internal range trades were introduced to increase the trade frequency at the cost of lower probability.
Even without testing, Ive got a hunch that only sticking to higher probability scenarios I.E FT/NFT, no countering, and no internal range trades will yield slightly better results albeit with much less opportunities. ... When I say better... I still dont necessarily think it will be profitable, but am open to being proved wrong.
{quote} Ive not actually done a formal backtest. Im currently forward testing with a small amount of equity, once I take 10 losses in total, I will asses the R multiple, which will be either positive or negative. From this week ive taken 5 trades 2 wins, 3 losses, 40% WR, +3R. Despite this though im still ultra sceptical about it being a working strategy, there just isnt enough TA in the method to result in profitability (in my opinion), but I will see the test through anyway out of foolishness
{quote} Not optimal I know, just the way I like to do things. I prefer live time execution. But will keep it updated at the end of each week
I'm waiting for El to share with us what analysis they are doing to get such spectacularly good results
.
{quote} Wait. At the start of the year? Were you aware of this trading system in January? Also if there are other considerations you've incorporated into your analysis that haven't been mentioned elsewhere, kindly continue sharing them. About those two same direction candles: do you mean when they pass the equilibrium line?
Sorry my English is not that good Yes I think about the equilibrium (or 50% retrace in a fib) and yes normally you should the continue down to test the low again, but I see that price has a tendency to wick both way around this area, so I stopped taking trades in the last weeks of the test.
Also I only got about 2-3 trades a week (9 weeks test 24 trades)
{quote} In the start of the year in the test
Listen, which software are you using for your backtest? If it is Soft4fx, then you could send me your backtest simulation file, and I can go through those 24 trades you've taken, and probably detail out the common conditions I see in them here. I'm pretty good at breaking down abstract ideas into easier to follow storylines or set of instructions.