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The Swamp

  • #110,381
  • Jul 14, 2023 2:22pm Jul 14, 2023 2:22pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} yeah better scalp during range days,,,I don't mind scalping on trending days either.. just make sure not trade against trends,,, that is the hardest part in trading....., But all those comes down to risk managements.. I have to flat all trades if its close to 5% daily drawdown
Hey I think I lost my cell. It may have fell off the tractor. I may have burried it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,382
  • Jul 14, 2023 2:28pm Jul 14, 2023 2:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Hey I think I lost my cell. It may have fell off the tractor. I may have burried it.
ohh no..just tried... it went straight to your voice mail///
  • #110,383
  • Jul 14, 2023 2:40pm Jul 14, 2023 2:40pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} ohh no..just tried... it went straight to your voice mail///
I found it. I dont know how I didnt run it over. After it cools it should work.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,384
  • Jul 14, 2023 3:14pm Jul 14, 2023 3:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Still bullish signs. The fix being above 1238.4. a 4h closes in an hour. Its Friday, today being a week close. It is the largest close in the near term. If today closes below 1238, and opens below 1238 next week. That would be a small sign of bull weakness. More so if today closed below 1171. ATM its pure bullish testing 1238.4. If it did close below 1238. Sunday Monday into early NY. 1241/42 may be some R. An inability to reach 1241 from below would be weakness. The same being true if it headed North of.1241/38, it being supportive. Not...
Most pullbacks just retrace some. Closing today below 1238 could bring a test of 1171. And that's fine most days. 1045ish is also fine for a week. 1.0667 ish is fine too. Those lower are fantasy. The trend being up and all. The thing being, the 1186 algo dont care about trends. The algo at 0.9595 didnt care it was in a down trend. So if the bulls start to slip. The retrace can be just like the one starting last Sept -0.9595. To bring us to this 1186 algo. It can swing back to to the algo at 9595, and to the unsatisfied one at 0.79xx. Personally I dont know if this 1.125x area will hold. (1186+ slip) The last dominant ones slipped 43 to 60 pips. I only have 1/2 dozen of these to study. If the pattern completes as the others. This may be a top area. Last time the eu stopped more than 43 pips below .9595. It bounced, then went back to make the 0.953x low. That aprox the 60 pips. If the 1.1186 pattern holds. We may see 0.79xx next.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,385
  • Jul 14, 2023 7:17pm Jul 14, 2023 7:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Month average range is about 398 pips (1.1232.) ATM 400 pips moved in July. Some day support 1190/96. 47 pips above 1186.
July is above average atm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Fighting this battle atm 1223. If bulls lose (1223 battle), 1038 1044 is normal. If they win. Then it can try/test 1258. If they lose the battle at 1258. 1044 will probably come. PA like to be an average Jane. The Algo at 1186, indicates it could be a much greater than average fall. Like time frame wise, It would be below 0.8 to reach an algo of equal size.
Quoting gatorinla
5 year eu average 1.1223 1 yr 1.0499 10 year 1334 {image}
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Still bullish signs. The fix being above 1238.4. a 4h closes in an hour. Its Friday, today being a week close. It is the largest close in the near term. If today closes below 1238, and opens below 1238 next week. That would be a small sign of bull weakness. More so if today closed below 1171. ATM its pure bullish testing 1238.4. If it did close below 1238. Sunday Monday into early NY. 1241/42 may be some R. An inability to reach 1241 from below would be weakness. The same being true if it headed North of.1241/38, it being supportive. Not returning strong bull. Being above is bullish. Bullish into the same 1186 shadow. PA may sit here a while in range. As the range rises w/o breaking North. The b/o lower gets closer. Its best for bulls to stay above 1239. Even if not, 1171 and 1156/59 are supportive. This 1186 1250 area is special. This is a place a big reversal can start. It can 1.2745, or 0.8 from here. Since 2008 that trend was lower. It is bullish, it hasn't shown a bear sign. It refuses to test common retrace levels like 1196 was. The next test is today's close.
PA is bullish. But its missing closing above large little known levels.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,386
  • Jul 14, 2023 7:28pm Jul 14, 2023 7:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} July is above average atm {quote} {quote} {quote} PA is bullish. But its missing closing above large little known levels.
A 1218 close. St in this bullish trend 1241 should get a visit. If not 1171 looks better.
Missing 1241 is a little sign of the day bulls weaker.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,387
  • Jul 14, 2023 10:27pm Jul 14, 2023 10:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Hey I think I lost my cell. It may have fell off the tractor. I may have burried it.
Ill use a metal detector
I came by just want to thank you for always sharing and all that work , i was lucky to find your post in my early days. J
  • #110,388
  • Jul 15, 2023 5:50am Jul 15, 2023 5:50am
July month range average was met at 1.2313. In the 9.5 months since the 2022 low the EU has risen 1708 pips. That is a average of 180 pips PM in 9.5 months. Using the 400 average, compared to the 180 pips in 9.5 months as a benchmark. The eu can retrace 55.25%. Or about 221 pips. That can be a retrace to 1.0050. What's next 221 pips higher (1.146x), or a retrace to 1.0050, a combination of either?. I dont know. What's factual is the month average range. PA has been bullish. As of Friday pa is still bullish. Its been bullish since the rise from 0.9535. There was an algo at 0.9595. There is/was algo at 1.1186. Pay attention to clues it sends. It is bullish. Friday was the first time in a week, pa didnt hold above the Lfix. So far, in the normal slip of the 1.1186 shadow. Month average range was met +32 pips or (108%) of average month range. Momentum is up the last 9.5 months. The odds for bulls may be lessoning using the month average. A 55% retrace of July may be in the picture. Pay attention to supports holding or not holding. I had closed longs 1.1171/1.1186. I collected small positions on the rise above. My risk on the shorts capped at 0.5%. If it drops I will periodically add to shorts.
A 55% retrace of the last 9.5 months is possible. That is a 940 pip move. The trend since 2008 is lower. There are 2 algos one much higher, the other 0.79xx. 1186 is closer to center.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,389
  • Jul 15, 2023 6:02am Jul 15, 2023 6:02am
-1.1004 is likely a loss of momentum. Close a day below 1.1104/1.0998 before Wednesday is a bad sign for longs. Today is mid month. Wednesday is mid week. Loosing 1.0903.5 is more of what a reversal would look like. A ship takes a long time to turn. Its bullish have no doubt. Its making HH and HL's. But it had a small slip Friday, within the 1186 shadow.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,390
  • Jul 15, 2023 8:23am Jul 15, 2023 8:23am
A small retrace and one more push up just to get folks wouldn't surprise me, even if it is going to drop.
  • #110,391
  • Jul 15, 2023 10:55am Jul 15, 2023 10:55am
Quoting charlienoble
A small retrace and one more push up just to get folks wouldn't surprise me, even if it is going to drop.
Back to 1241 is normal with a slight bull trend or range. Not going there Monday would be miss #1. In a large uptrend. It should go to 1241 if bullish anytime into early NY. If it dont, it favors 1171. A baby step for bears. If the Lfix is below 1171 59 56 etc. That's not a positive sign for bulls. Its bullish so stuff like this can take days.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,392
  • Jul 15, 2023 12:53pm Jul 15, 2023 12:53pm
eurusd is currently going up strongly. there is a possibility of a gap up. in any case, signs of weakening of the upward movement, if any, will show next week.
  • #110,393
  • Jul 15, 2023 3:35pm Jul 15, 2023 3:35pm
Jan 2014 38.2% at 1238.
This is a year chart. Look at the lower wicks to the left. This is a significant area.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,394
  • Jul 15, 2023 3:58pm Jul 15, 2023 3:58pm
usdx 2018 to last years high. Has giving back 55.9% of gains. Its in a mofu zone. Friday closed less than 1 pip above the level.
Historically many reversals occur there. It was worth the price of admission to me.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,395
  • Jul 15, 2023 4:10pm Jul 15, 2023 4:10pm
Price going to go where the market lets it. 2000/2008.
That fib is hitting in 2 periods. Its bullish, I repeated that many times. I just caution people to look for weakness at key areas. It may go to the moon. But dont be silly enough not to see other longer periods. From a distance these large levels look small. They are not small. The 9 months up are like 7 same colored candles.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,396
  • Jul 15, 2023 4:23pm Jul 15, 2023 4:23pm
Some of you trade TL. You may not have one like this. You expect it to run and retest from below. It may be doing that.
This chart is quarters. Price can sit in this area for many months. Many of you are trend traders. If it sits here for months, You can kiss your account goodbye. Because it will give false breaks. That's the time you will jump in. And you will refuse to take the stop loss as the b/o proves fake. In reality the market ranges most times. Trading smaller sizes can make more money, it can make losses smaller. Waiting for the big one.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,397
  • Jul 15, 2023 10:50pm Jul 15, 2023 10:50pm
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  • #110,398
  • Jul 16, 2023 12:52am Jul 16, 2023 12:52am
Trading is a psyhological war against your emotions. ~ MoneyTradeEdge

Manual trading is a psyhological war against your emotions....Algo trading is the way of the peaceful warrior...
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I am who I am
  • #110,399
  • Jul 16, 2023 3:55am Jul 16, 2023 3:55am
Forever young...the wife of the president of South Korea, Kim Keon-hee, is 50 years old...
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I am who I am
  • #110,400
  • Jul 16, 2023 6:14pm Jul 16, 2023 6:14pm
I got a pivot at 1222. Normally I expect 1241/42 to be tested, and being bullish. 1241/42 to be broken+. If its unable to reach 1241, and slips below 1222. It may test 1171 59 56 pa
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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