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The Swamp

  • #110,361
  • Jul 13, 2023 4:36pm Jul 13, 2023 4:36pm
Quoting Boulder
So overextended trends... Tomorrow Friday.. let see this can reverse some for the weekend.. {image}
5 min R at 1225.. The spread sucks this time of day..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,362
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:29pm Jul 13, 2023 5:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote}1229 is 43 pips. ATM high 1227.. The past has been 43 to 60 pips the last 3 times. On year algos. There is not many year algos. One below 0.8, the other 1.2745. And this current 1186/slip level. Its sitting at 1225 now. So for slip at 41 pips. Most time frames are bullish, including the 1min.
43 pips now. 2 times 43 pips was the turn.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,363
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:32pm Jul 13, 2023 5:32pm
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weekly fibo

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daily cup handle..1.128X"s reach fibo 61.8

may be crop
  • #110,364
  • Jul 13, 2023 5:52pm Jul 13, 2023 5:52pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I dont think its sneaky. {image}
little corrections in session and flow one direction for several days...right, named trend or go formation target what gives more profit.. rapid ones always nails me .
  • #110,365
  • Jul 13, 2023 8:46pm Jul 13, 2023 8:46pm
Quoting Traderak
{quote} little corrections in session and flow one direction for several days...right, named trend or go formation target what gives more profit.. rapid ones always nails me .
Month average range is about 398 pips (1.1232.) ATM 400 pips moved in July.
Some day support 1190/96.
47 pips above 1186.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,366
  • Jul 13, 2023 9:20pm Jul 13, 2023 9:20pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,367
  • Jul 13, 2023 11:21pm Jul 13, 2023 11:21pm
5 year eu average 1.1223
1 yr 1.0499
10 year 1334
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,368
  • Jul 14, 2023 6:24am Jul 14, 2023 6:24am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It is bullish, 1.0974/75 may be a buy. But it can go deeper. If 1.074/75 is the low. The tp on a long may be 1.1045. Using ADR of about 70 pips. There is some support at 0965. Its lower than 0974/75. That may be a area for a stop.
I knew I should long here and forget :..(
a few post before you mentioned 1.118x also
  • #110,369
  • Edited 6:46am Jul 14, 2023 6:36am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting Traderak
{quote} I knew I should long here and forget :..( a few post before you mentioned 1.118x also
Bears haven't had a normal retrace in a few days now. Today if it dont reach 1190/96 (Today means in less than 3 hs from now), that cycle continues. But pa is well above week average now. Pa is above month average now. I dont see weakness in bulls atm. Just a possible place within the shadow of 1186. A small sign of weakness is being below 1190/96 and it becoming R. Followed by 1171 and so on.
9 is a small common ma some use. In the past 9 years 1258 is average.
In the past 1 yr 1223 is average.
Is it bullish now we have reached average? I dont know.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,370
  • Jul 14, 2023 7:09am Jul 14, 2023 7:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bears haven't had a normal retrace in a few days now. Today if it dont reach 1190/96 (Today means in less than 3 hs from now), that cycle continues. But pa is well above week average now. Pa is above month average now. I dont see weakness in bulls atm. Just a possible place within the shadow of 1186. A small sign of weakness is being below 1190/96 and it becoming R. Followed by 1171 and so on. 9 is a small common ma some use. In the past 9 years 1258 is average. In the past 1 yr 1223 is average. Is it bullish now we have reached average?...
9 month average is 1.0664.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,371
  • Jul 14, 2023 7:32am Jul 14, 2023 7:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Bears haven't had a normal retrace in a few days now. Today if it dont reach 1190/96 (Today means in less than 3 hs from now), that cycle continues. But pa is well above week average now. Pa is above month average now. I dont see weakness in bulls atm. Just a possible place within the shadow of 1186. A small sign of weakness is being below 1190/96 and it becoming R. Followed by 1171 and so on. 9 is a small common ma some use. In the past 9 years 1258 is average. In the past 1 yr 1223 is average. Is it bullish now we have...
Fighting this battle atm 1223.
If bulls lose (1223 battle), 1038 1044 is normal. If they win. Then it can try/test 1258. If they lose the battle at 1258. 1044 will probably come.
PA like to be an average Jane.
The Algo at 1186, indicates it could be a much greater than average fall. Like time frame wise, It would be below 0.8 to reach an algo of equal size.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,372
  • Jul 14, 2023 7:43am Jul 14, 2023 7:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Fighting this battle atm 1223. If bulls lose (1223 battle), 1038 1044 is normal. If they win. Then it can try/test 1258. If they lose the battle at 1258. 1044 will probably come. PA like to be an average Jane. The Algo at 1186, indicates it could be a much greater than average fall. Like time frame wise, It would be below 0.8 to reach an algo of equal size.
PA is bullish. Momentum is up. There is no doubt about that. PA is in a place where a reversal makes sense. Look for signs. Strong bullish is not going to 1196. Bullish is going to 1196 and bouncing to a HH. Its not necessarily bearish being below 1190. But that is the first small step to be bearish. Having pa unable to get back above 1190 or 1196.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,373
  • Jul 14, 2023 8:23am Jul 14, 2023 8:23am
Quoting Traderak
{quote} I knew I should long here and forget :..( a few post before you mentioned 1.118x also
I posted 0835 was Q close. pp 0829. The potential bounce there was logical. Now its at 1.0903.5. Getting back below 1.07 this year may be bearish again. 1.2745 is way up there. It needs to get out the shadow of 1186 now to go up or down.. A drop from it can run to -0.8. Since 2008 the trend is lower. This test of 1186 may be a trend change, back to the 2008 down trend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,374
  • Jul 14, 2023 9:00am Jul 14, 2023 9:00am
Pa the last 3 hs is green.. Nothing but bullish pa atm. I'm focused on 1238.4. The day and 12h closed below it. Lets see if the fix respects it. If so we may see 1196/90 still in the next 1h
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,375
  • Jul 14, 2023 9:21am Jul 14, 2023 9:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Fighting this battle atm 1223. If bulls lose (1223 battle), 1038 1044 is normal. If they win. Then it can try/test 1258. If they lose the battle at 1258. 1044 will probably come. PA like to be an average Jane. The Algo at 1186, indicates it could be a much greater than average fall. Like time frame wise, It would be below 0.8 to reach an algo of equal size.
I just keep scalping shorts this morning, shorted every Bounce on M5 chart..
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  • #110,376
  • Jul 14, 2023 9:34am Jul 14, 2023 9:34am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I just keep scalping shorts this morning, shorted every Bounce on M5 chart.. {image}
every drop climbs up again...when if it will be/ come the big one we will quit early...same my silver shorts; although gold do not move silver climbs.

In my micro chart close lower 1.1209 can shoot 1.115x
  • #110,377
  • Jul 14, 2023 11:03am Jul 14, 2023 11:03am
Quoting Traderak
{quote} every drop climbs up again...when if it will be/ come the big one we will quit early...same my silver shorts; although gold do not move silver climbs. In my micro chart close lower 1.1209 can shoot 1.115x
Scalped a few more shorts...I am all cashing out and done for the day
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  • #110,378
  • Jul 14, 2023 11:12am Jul 14, 2023 11:12am
Quoting gatorinla
Pa the last 3 hs is green.. Nothing but bullish pa atm. I'm focused on 1238.4. The day and 12h closed below it. Lets see if the fix respects it. If so we may see 1196/90 still in the next 1h {image}
Still bullish signs. The fix being above 1238.4. a 4h closes in an hour. Its Friday, today being a week close. It is the largest close in the near term.

If today closes below 1238, and opens below 1238 next week. That would be a small sign of bull weakness. More so if today closed below 1171.

ATM its pure bullish testing 1238.4. If it did close below 1238. Sunday Monday into early NY. 1241/42 may be some R. An inability to reach 1241 from below would be weakness. The same being true if it headed North of.1241/38, it being supportive. Not returning strong bull. Being above is bullish. Bullish into the same 1186 shadow. PA may sit here a while in range. As the range rises w/o breaking North. The b/o lower gets closer. Its best for bulls to stay above 1239. Even if not, 1171 and 1156/59 are supportive. This 1186 1250 area is special. This is a place a big reversal can start. It can 1.2745, or 0.8 from here. Since 2008 that trend was lower. It is bullish, it hasn't shown a bear sign. It refuses to test common retrace levels like 1196 was. The next test is today's close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,379
  • Jul 14, 2023 11:21am Jul 14, 2023 11:21am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I just keep scalping shorts this morning, shorted every Bounce on M5 chart.. {image}
U may get lucky with a few more days sideways. The market ranges more than trends..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,380
  • Edited 12:25pm Jul 14, 2023 11:51am | Edited 12:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} U may get lucky with a few more days sideways. The market ranges more than trends..
yeah better scalp during range days,,,I don't mind scalping on trending days either.. just make sure not trade against trends,,, that is the hardest part in trading.....,
But all those comes down to risk managements.. I have to flat all trades if its close to 5% daily drawdown
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