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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,821
  • May 24, 2007 4:25am May 24, 2007 4:25am
just entered a long, hoping coming out of the latest retracement. anyone agree?
  • #4,822
  • May 24, 2007 4:37am May 24, 2007 4:37am
Nothing open here until the US news and the DOW opens. It has the potential to throw a handful of pairs in different directions so I'll wait it out and be patient before making my moves. We're still feeling the effects of not just Greenspan's comments but also the general sentiment of risk aversion so I'm not game to try and pick the market right now.
  • #4,823
  • May 24, 2007 4:51am May 24, 2007 4:51am
Quoting aslan
just entered a long, hoping coming out of the latest retracement. anyone agree?
yeah, im also long since the 61 Fib retrace, so im up around 30 p now...but I think its a good idea to close the trade before news and enter after...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,824
  • May 24, 2007 5:01am May 24, 2007 5:01am
Quoting gagiul
yeah, im also long since the 61 Fib retrace, so im up around 30 p now...but I think its a good idea to close the trade before news and enter after...
USD-negative news lately has been GJ positive. Not that this cannot be changed. But, as UJ downside is not so favoured as GBP's and EUR's upside the unbalanced reaction tends to push GBp and EUR a lil bit more up than push UJ down.

Reiterate "has been", "can change", "favoured", "tends".

But of course, better trades for fast pips will be in the dollar pairs.

Here's a possible nice trade: USDCAD is just about yesterday's low and just above 1.0800 mark. Clearly waiting for the news push. Breach of yesterday's low might provide a good fall. I aways leave a sell stop 1 pip below previous day's low and has provided nice trades with the ultra downtrend of this pair.

Sorry for the off-topic, btw
  • #4,825
  • May 24, 2007 5:26am May 24, 2007 5:26am
Quoting cesarnc
USD-negative news lately has been GJ positive. Not that this cannot be changed. But, as UJ downside is not so favoured as GBP's and EUR's upside the unbalanced reaction tends to push GBp and EUR a lil bit more up than push UJ down.

Reiterate "has been", "can change", "favoured", "tends".

But of course, better trades for fast pips will be in the dollar pairs.

Here's a possible nice trade: USDCAD is just about yesterday's low and just above 1.0800 mark. Clearly waiting for the news push. Breach of yesterday's low might provide a good fall. I aways leave a sell stop 1 pip below previous day's low and has provided nice trades with the ultra downtrend of this pair.

Sorry for the off-topic, btw
I dont think its an off-topic that would mind someone. This thread became more like an investors' lounge. so we can talk about diversifying risk too.

I know about USD CAD and EUR CAD, just took a look at them recently,and of course I regret I didnt trade them during the boring April... Until recently, I was trying to focus on a few pairs only, but this is not a good approach, as any pair has its downturn moments...
Im also short on USD CAD since yesterdays pullback, and I will add to it once it goes below 1.0810...however, the length of this downtrend scares me, its one of the best downtrends i've ever seen, classical trade book approach. If you just use fibs, u could make a lot of money on it...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,826
  • May 24, 2007 6:17am May 24, 2007 6:17am
09:13Market looks to be in a holding pattern now until the 1000EDT new homes sales is out of the way. In general, the market is in search of a theme that can sustain a directional move for more than 12 hours, and nothing appears imminent on the horizon. JPY-crosses had a healthy pullback from yesterday's test of 164.00 in EUR/JPY, and buying JPY-crosses on dips remains as the primary playable trend.

I'm not adding until news out.
  • #4,827
  • May 24, 2007 6:36am May 24, 2007 6:36am
Dow has opened slightly positive... I guess that's a good sign. Really hard to tell at this point though, so I agree, I'm out until news.
  • #4,828
  • May 24, 2007 7:00am May 24, 2007 7:00am
Quoting nathbear
Dow has opened slightly positive... I guess that's a good sign. Really hard to tell at this point though, so I agree, I'm out until news.
can u guys give me a link of a website where I can follow the Dow live? coz until now couldnt find a good one.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,829
  • May 24, 2007 7:04am May 24, 2007 7:04am
fuck, and I closed my GY longs. why why?? at least I believe this confirms that there no reason to fear a sell off on GY soon.

The good and interesting part is that neither Eu or GU are falling...wonder why? anyway this should be very GY bullish...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,830
  • May 24, 2007 7:08am May 24, 2007 7:08am
Dow Jones Gone Wiiiiilllllllldddddddd Last +80
  • #4,831
  • May 24, 2007 7:09am May 24, 2007 7:09am
Quoting gagiul
can u guys give me a link of a website where I can follow the Dow live? coz until now couldnt find a good one.
Nyse.com
  • #4,832
  • May 24, 2007 7:11am May 24, 2007 7:11am
Quoting gagiul
can u guys give me a link of a website where I can follow the Dow live? coz until now couldnt find a good one.
I have an account with Northfinance I use almost exclusively for their metatrader charting. It gives me my Dow information.

Cesarnc is right, though, Dow going through the roof on the back of the US home sales data. Only time will tell if it keeps those gains but i'm guessing it will. No sign of a carry trade unwind at this point.
  • #4,833
  • May 24, 2007 7:12am May 24, 2007 7:12am
I still feel a sell off is coming possibly next week!!! It usually happens this time of the year. and i see very low volume with Bulls in UJ. Granted it staying up but seems to be losing steam.

and added on to it with Greenspan comments, Yuan increasing their range, Congress pressure to increase value of the Yuan, plus UJ at its high since Feb 26 sell off, and its summer time!! indicate to me a sell off is in the horizon. After (If)U/J hits 122 downtrend should be immenent.

We are conservatice on buys, get some buy dips. but mostly sells are active and ready to go!!!!


Quoting gagiul
fuck, and I closed my GY longs. why why?? at least I believe this confirms that there no reason to fear a sell off on GY soon.

The good and interesting part is that neither Eu or GU are falling...wonder why? anyway this should be very GY bullish...
  • #4,834
  • May 24, 2007 7:13am May 24, 2007 7:13am
Quoting cesarnc
Dow Jones Gone Wiiiiilllllllldddddddd Last +80
JPY crosses popped up after New Home Sales announcement.

To add to Cesar's comment, EURCAD looks extremely attractive to short as well.
  • #4,835
  • May 24, 2007 7:16am May 24, 2007 7:16am
Quoting newjersey24
I still feel a sell off is coming possibly next week!!! It usually happens this time of the year. and i see very low volume with Bulls in UJ. Granted it staying up but seems to be losing steam.

and added on to it with Greenspan comments, Yuan increasing their range, Congress pressure to increase value of the Yuan, plus UJ at its high since Feb 26 sell off, and its summer time!! indicate to me a sell off is in the horizon. After (If)U/J hits 122 downtrend should be immenent.

We are conservatice on buys, get some buy dips. but mostly sells are active and ready to go!!!!

I agree with you and have short trades positioned to take advantage of what I see as good sell zones. 241.75 is my next level, which I expect to see tomorrow at some point. I've been long from 240.84, though, so we'll see where we go from there.
  • #4,836
  • May 24, 2007 7:20am May 24, 2007 7:20am
Quoting newjersey24
I still feel a sell off is coming possibly next week!!! It usually happens this time of the year. and i see very low volume with Bulls in UJ. Granted it staying up but seems to be losing steam.

and added on to it with Greenspan comments, Yuan increasing their range, Congress pressure to increase value of the Yuan, plus UJ at its high since Feb 26 sell off, and its summer time!! indicate to me a sell off is in the horizon. After (If)U/J hits 122 downtrend should be immenent.

We are conservatice on buys, get some buy dips. but mostly sells are active and ready to go!!!!

I don't call for carry trades selloff until the first 300 pips are gone. China raised rates, raised taxes, talked to paulson, widened Yuan's band and GJ is off the top by 40 pips only.

Until the long called armaggedon does not come, I'm a compulsive buyer off the bottom.
  • #4,837
  • May 24, 2007 7:31am May 24, 2007 7:31am
sorry noob question.

how can i work out what benefit i will get if i hold a gbp/jpy long each night, from the interest differential point of view?
  • #4,838
  • May 24, 2007 7:40am May 24, 2007 7:40am
Quoting aslan
sorry noob question.

how can i work out what benefit i will get if i hold a gbp/jpy long each night, from the interest differential point of view?
Dont ever fell sorry about your questions.

Go here:

http://www.interbankfx.com/swap_rates.php

Check the table on the right.



Oanda also has an interest calculator:

http://www.oanda.com/products/fxmath/interest.shtml
  • #4,839
  • May 24, 2007 7:41am May 24, 2007 7:41am
Quoting aslan
sorry noob question.

how can i work out what benefit i will get if i hold a gbp/jpy long each night, from the interest differential point of view?

Check with your broker, they should even have it on their website. GBP/JPY has one of the highest + interest on a long. FXDD = 24. + per lot (2.40+ on a mini)
  • #4,840
  • May 24, 2007 7:46am May 24, 2007 7:46am
well the price action is definitely very interesting now...the momentum on UY seems to vanish, and GU and EU seem to still hold pretty well above the lows. Well I guess either way GY should be favored to the upside
We leave no soldier behind.
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