15 minute opening range Forex

Hard to see anything from your small phone images. I now see it. Yes you'r right. For me it only reversed until the 23.6 level. So no trade here on EUR/USD.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yEI9NQAA

Uj went in the same direction

14 pips range

Be +1 waiting for it to go 1 to 1 or get myself stopped out.

Rule is the same. 15 min range from london open
Sl and tp the size of the range
Entry is .3 tp is 1.3

P.s. ya can't help using my phone. Currently at the pool. Thinking of ways to either focus on high low candle or the 3 line ones.

I will doo a backtest for DAX on your reversal idea of the 15 Minutes Open. I only entered long here on the breakout of the High but it looks like a potential good buy entry following your rules on the reversal would have been possible too. 3rd candle crossed the 0.3, 0.5 after a first false breakout of the Low of this range.

I maybe stop trying to trade Forex all together. Looks like only a lot choppiness. Scrolling back and forth the DAX chart, it looks much much cleaner/trending. So possible easier to trade for me. Big daily ranges maybe giving it also enough room to be profitable from day trading. Also you have a centralized market open and a more regulated environment, even no commissions and the spread is small too.

I am currently in the money. Unfortunately only a demo trade

Funny picture. Nice feet, laugh. I will also go swimming later. Really warm here at the moment. We are in the middle of summer.

Why not try the e mini. I love the sp 500. And mini sp 500 is cheaper and cost less.

One thing for sure. Sp 500 will only go up and knowing this, any setup that says a buy with a 1 to 1 or 1 to 2 will be of benefit. From the open.

The reason why things are choopy right now for forex is because of the manual corrections of the exchanges.

Example.

The interest rate of japan does not move but the ones by usa keeps increasing yet the price of yen compared to usd goes up and down up and down.

Thats why i only try to get a piece of the market when i can. And use little risk because the rr is good enough.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2nfuL2Fe

For us who do long term buy and hold and then cost average, this sp500 is the king. And because there will be non traders who only do this one thing, you know for sure sp500 will continue to rise.

I would like to commit to a trading instrument and strategy that I can focus on (and which is profitable at the end of a period like 30,60 or at least 90 days). What that is isn't that important to me. It is important to me to have something continuously successful. I don't want to be all over the place and trade all these many markets/instruments like you seem to do.

For me it's just too much and I see it like that if I can't even manage to be profitable with one thing why should I do it with several? If i can drive one car correctly, that's enough for me. I don't need 10 more cars...

E-Mini, S&P 500. I don't know. I picked DAX because it's the German Index and I am from Germany so the Open is in the morning for me (09:00 am). It It looks like Dax is mainly following the US markets. And yes it all seems to be only moving up long term.

I did some research again last night as i couldn't sleep and found this video. He also says it would be easier (especially for a beginner) to trade an index. Maybe just less noise, easier to trade for me. If something is easier to make money for me, why should I choose the more difficult route. I am in this to make money and not to be waste a lot of time.

What you say regarding to Forex and that it's only choppy right now. I can't say that. I've now watched the Forex market for over a 10 years. There are 21 days a month on average. At least 17 out of 21 i see price moving only all over the place, not respecting what ever ranges support/resistance you might come up with. That's a damn 80% of the time. Now for 3 days a month you then get a more smooth trending move and that is mostly from the London Open after price stuck in a rather tight range during the Asian market session. Then with the New York Open you mostly see it reversing the move again so you end up the day again where you started (or near to). So it's mostly mean reverting. Maybe that's why i got no luck with the London breakout approach i tried earlier before i found your topic. You basically doing the same i did but instead of trading the breakout you're trying the reversal from the Open.

So here's the video:

My DAX breakout trade is still running. Moved the SL to BE +10. I will now swim and tonight I will backtest your reversal strategy using the DAX

Looks like you got stopped out at +1R. It came all the way down again even crossing the Low of the Opening Range. So here we are, 8 Hours later in the day and we still haven't reached the +2R target.

GBP/USD 10/07/23. London Open

No trade here. It didn't reverse to 0.3 or 05. entry level within the 3rd candle. (1st forms range, 2nd breaks it, 3rd entry). Trading the breakout of the Low would have been nicely rewarded (depending on some profit target) with a SL set at the High. Easy to say after the fact.

Yes, i like to trade the reversals. It's probably because i am a counter trader. I kust find it easier and especially with the fibs.

Opening and closing of the range, news, i see them always returning to the original or more. Even if the price bias of the day says one thing and does the opposite.

I'll besting the 4th candle entry. Like it may add more conviction on some levels. And compare it with the 3rd candle entry with the 15 mins.

Some retail patterns worth nothing as reversals

1. Ring low and ring high
2. Double bottom double top
3. Inside bar
4. Fractal
5. Hammer and shooting star
6. Trend line break

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RtWp6Iuz

Euro didnt do a 15m reversal but a nice 30 m one.

Today we had a sell bias but price action on ny does it's thing and goes against london.

Sydney range got broken the south by tokyo and london broke that to the north and ny broke the to the south and reversed.

The opening got pierced do many times today up down up down up down. many chances to make money

Just be careful not to add too many parameters. In my experience, that doesn't make a strategy better, rather the opposite. Have like 1-3 parameters for your entry and exit and then backtest it over a large enough sample size of data. If it works, good. If not move on. Just my personal opinion.

Today's EUR/USD trade has now also reached its +2R target. It took a while.

11/07/23

Rules (should always be the same)

Entry

1st M15 Candle = Opening Range
2nd M15 Candle = breaks High/Low of the Opening Range
3rd M15 Candle = Entry @ 0.3 or 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level

Risk Management

SL = Size of the Range (-1R)
TP = x2 (+2R)

Money / Trade Management

- Move SL to BE @ 1R of floating profits.

EUR/USD / London Open = No Trade / Loss (-1R)

GBP/USD / London Open = Loss (-1R)

Just as a side note. My DAX breakout trade from yesterday ended profitable. Reached to the +2R target today.

Ill write my euro summary later once ny open is done.

Euro right now has a bullish bias. So, waiting for an upportune moment to enter. :3

Sydney open was 5r plus
But the others like tokyo, sydney close, tokyo close london open were -1, -1, and 2 no trades for me.

Yes. Like said i would be only interested in trading the London Open + only for one forex pair (or what ever else market). If that doesn't lead to a profitable result, at least for the period of more than one quarter, then it probably isn't for me.

I can't and don't want to sit in front of the computer all day if it's not even worth it financially, apart from the whole lifetime you're wasting.

Anyhow. Have a nice day. Will test GBP/USD and Dax again for the whole last 3 months later (based on rules from my last post) and see if that might be different compared to EUR/USD. EUR/USD for the last 3 month, i've tested. It's not profitable.

Different strokes for different folks. :3

let us now add the idea of daily bias. What is this?
It is the opening price in the daily. Underline this. Go to 1 or 5 min time frame, see where price is going from opening to close, or opening to next bar's opening and you will have an idea of the daily bias. This is the price where ultimately by london or ny price will go.

And the idea of the 15 min range + the break out of the 5 min bar afterwards. (This became a bit more clear and supported either the reversal or not reversal.)

These two ideas are great to incorporate so you know as the case of the latter affects only the session whereas the first one applies throughout the day.

May you get rich with these simple 15 min ideas.

Example

Euro 5am +8gmt

Opening price goes south. Now price will go the opposite until around london. And there you can maximize the drop.

Thats how you would see the chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uNO4wQ2R

Scalp now the per sessions buy. Then later in the day. Enjoy a decent size drop.

For now observe what i shared here in your charts. You know when price opens and closes. You know other price when principles by other traders and check those too. Then apply this.

Summary

1. Daily bias, always check first
2. Apply the 15m and 5 min breakout
3. 2 filters out bad reversals
4. Trail stop or 1 to 2
5. Know that the daily bias will make the most profit and its when london takes out asia

Refining the fib reversal i can't help but think of applying the grid scalping. Where if price doesnt push further in one direction in a 1 to 1 size of the range. It'll reverse. It's pretty subjective and refining the rules will take a bit more.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PZ8ZWk3H

Here's a first look on the grid reversal.

For our reversal method

euro has no trade on sydney and tokyo open

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Yg1oVTHE

Euro sydney close. 2 pm +8gmt

Using the first 15 min as range. Also as stop loss.
Pierces the top then dives down.

.5 entry. Aggressive .3 does 5r. .5 entry does decent 4r

15 min range 1 to 2.

Good day for our system. Now simply enjoing a trail stop if it can do more.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/uD5FZM1C

Ny opening 8pm +8GMT
15m
1. Measure range
2. 2nd bar pierce south
3. 3rd pierces north

Very nice because of news.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hX2YMi8x
Euro

Plus 8 gmt

London open

1. Take the 15 m range
2. Price breaks the low
3. And enters our fib at .3 targetting 1.8 for a 1 to 5 r.

Really nice trade.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jC8fPEjd

+8gmt

Ny open 8 pm

1. 15 min opening range
2. 2nd 15m candle pierces the low
3. 3rd candle doesnt go up yet
4. Waiting until the 4th candle for confirmation else, no trade.
5. Price pierced and 5r.

Fib was used as entry

Hey Sovy. It's kind of very confusing. Since your first post, are you constantly changing your own rules or mixing the system with something completely different? I would like to be able to follow you but I can't. Could your please repost your rules for the 15 min ORB reversal strategy and then stick to it.

Are you sure you tested them correctly over a longer period of time? It honestly doesn't look like it to me.

The rules I have tested so far have not been successful for me neither for EUR/USD, GBP/USD or Dax. I checked the last 3 months. I used 1:2 RR where SL = size of the range. Entry on candle 3th at the 0.5 Fib retracement level.