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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,781
  • May 23, 2007 1:43pm May 23, 2007 1:43pm
Cesearnc,

What is your strategy you use particularly for USD/YEN?

I assumed it was Fibs with Moving avg cross-overs and price projections.


Quoting cesarnc
I always keep a buy limit in UJ, 10 pips above the 1hr 100 EMA. It's good for business.

Watch for the swing between daily pivot levels 121.53 (P) and 121.73 (R1). Just falling off R1 now...
  • #4,782
  • May 23, 2007 1:49pm May 23, 2007 1:49pm
Monthly R1 level @ 241.76. Seems to be giving the Dragon a little bit of difficulty.
Attached Image
  • #4,783
  • May 23, 2007 1:59pm May 23, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting newjersey24
Cesearnc,

What is your strategy you use particularly for USD/YEN?

I assumed it was Fibs with Moving avg cross-overs and price projections.
buying dips when they extend to the 1hr 100EMA, then selling tops depending on what is going on across the board.

Like now, at 121.63 with 121.85 not flashing news, I'm keeping to tp partials at the top (121.85) and let the rest for the exhaustion.

Most of the time, a nice USD selloff like today, provide nice bottoms to fish. And fast you are floating with positive trades, with time to figure out how to manage them.

I always keep several positions in UJ, some times quick 10 pips dips, some time better entries. With patience, a big push arrives to kick you account to the skies. Patience is key for Yen pairs.

I usually reduce the size of the trade by late NYC, as to prevent from harsh talkings and rumors and gossips that usualy inspire an UJ selloff...
  • #4,784
  • May 23, 2007 2:33pm May 23, 2007 2:33pm
Thanks man, I looked back and see the opportunity with 100EMA.
I'll use that along with price projection and Fibs

Quoting cesarnc
buying dips when they extend to the 1hr 100EMA, then selling tops depending on what is going on across the board.

Like now, at 121.63 with 121.85 not flashing news, I'm keeping to tp partials at the top (121.85) and let the rest for the exhaustion.

Most of the time, a nice USD selloff like today, provide nice bottoms to fish. And fast you are floating with positive trades, with time to figure out how to manage them.

I always keep several positions in UJ, some times quick 10 pips dips, some time better entries. With patience, a big push arrives to kick you account to the skies. Patience is key for Yen pairs.

I usually reduce the size of the trade by late NYC, as to prevent from harsh talkings and rumors and gossips that usualy inspire an UJ selloff...
  • #4,785
  • May 23, 2007 2:34pm May 23, 2007 2:34pm
Quoting newjersey24
Thanks man, I looked back and see the opportunity with 100EMA.
I'll use that along with price projection and Fibs
I keep daily pivot levels under watch, too. You'd me amazed how this pair trade them at the pip.
  • #4,786
  • May 23, 2007 3:18pm May 23, 2007 3:18pm
16:12 USD/JPY may take another attempt at the 122.00 level, with talk off a large barrier expiring in the Asia session
  • #4,787
  • May 23, 2007 3:21pm May 23, 2007 3:21pm
Man, I neva knew that with this pair. I had used them when I was tradind GDP/USD, but i assumed that the USD/YEN channelling it wouldnt make much sense.

I'll take a look on that too.

Let me ask you this u calculate ya pivot based on NY market close 5pmest or by 12 GMT?? Or do u use a website to get the pivot levels?


Quoting cesarnc
I keep daily pivot levels under watch, too. You'd me amazed how this pair trade them at the pip.
  • #4,788
  • May 23, 2007 3:42pm May 23, 2007 3:42pm
Quoting newjersey24
Man, I neva knew that with this pair. I had used them when I was tradind GDP/USD, but i assumed that the USD/YEN channelling it wouldnt make much sense.

I'll take a look on that too.

Let me ask you this u calculate ya pivot based on NY market close 5pmest or by 12 GMT?? Or do u use a website to get the pivot levels?
If you use MT4, this file updates your Daily pivot levels everyday at 00:00 GMT.

It is set for 1440 min (daily) but you can change it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Daily Fib Pivots.ex4   20 KB | 368 downloads
  • #4,789
  • May 23, 2007 4:10pm May 23, 2007 4:10pm
anybody else see a 123 top on UJ ?

will this mean a down move on GJ as well ?
  • #4,790
  • May 23, 2007 4:28pm May 23, 2007 4:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
If you use MT4, this file updates your Daily pivot levels everyday at 00:00 GMT.

It is set for 1440 min (daily) but you can change it.
First of all, can anyone tell me what is the pivot?
And how do I use it for my G/J trading?
  • #4,791
  • May 23, 2007 4:36pm May 23, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting cesarnc
If you use MT4, this file updates your Daily pivot levels everyday at 00:00 GMT.

It is set for 1440 min (daily) but you can change it.
Cesar,

I attach your file on my MT4 chart, and do see something looks good.
241.12 is like the dividing price (PIVOT), my guessing is that above it we buy, below it we sell. Am I right?
  • #4,792
  • May 23, 2007 4:45pm May 23, 2007 4:45pm
Quoting trader8686
Cesar,

I attach your file on my MT4 chart, and do see something looks good.
241.12 is like the dividing price (PIVOT), my guessing is that above it we buy, below it we sell. Am I right?
Not so fast buddy... I use them as guidelines only for the intraday.

For instance, after strong news reading you can expect the pair to travel through 1, maybe 2 pivot levels. Breach of R3 and S3 are unlikely to extend much further. - Unlikely - Cable pushed 90 pips above R3 today, never looking back.

I trade fundamentals as movers and technicals for key prices for R&S, via pivots, EMAs and larger term fibonacci retracements.
  • #4,793
  • May 23, 2007 4:54pm May 23, 2007 4:54pm
Talks now have EJ @ 170...

The dollar traded initially lower versus the yen, in sympathy to all the dollar selling versus the pound, and recovered later in the NY session. The Euro/JPY cross had a nice pop higher as the dollar rallied versus the yen, eclipsing 164.00 a talked about “barrier level” for the past several weeks. The Eur/Jpy look to be eyeing 170, and unless there is not some interest rate change (read much higher) in Japan anytime soon, its probably not a good idea to bet against this pair.
  • #4,794
  • May 23, 2007 4:58pm May 23, 2007 4:58pm
Quoting cesarnc
Not so fast buddy... I use them as guidelines only for the intraday.

For instance, after strong news reading you can expect the pair to travel through 1, maybe 2 pivot levels. Breach of R3 and S3 are unlikely to extend much further. - Unlikely - Cable pushed 90 pips above R3 today, never looking back.

I trade fundamentals as movers and technicals for key prices for R&S, via pivots, EMAs and larger term fibonacci retracements.
For R&S you can run the indicator EA on the chart, and easily read it. In that, you really don 't need the pivots. I know fibonacci, but I don't know what is EMAs. Can you give me 1 -2 min education ? Thanks.
  • #4,795
  • Edited 5:22pm May 23, 2007 5:10pm | Edited 5:22pm
Quoting trader8686
For R&S you can run the indicator EA on the chart, and easily read it. In that, you really don 't need the pivots. I know fibonacci, but I don't know what is EMAs. Can you give me 1 -2 min education ? Thanks.

It is an Exponential Moving Average; it is calculated by a logaritimic function that gives more importance to the last period
That's the definition from investopedia:
"An exponential moving average (EMA), sometimes also called an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each day decreases exponentially, giving much more importance to recent observations while still not discarding older observations entirely. The graph at right shows an example of the weight decrease".

Hope that it helps
  • #4,796
  • May 23, 2007 5:51pm May 23, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting kunz78
It is an Exponential Moving Average; it is calculated by a logaritimic function that gives more importance to the last period
That's the definition from investopedia:
"An exponential moving average (EMA), sometimes also called an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA), applies weighting factors which decrease exponentially. The weighting for each day decreases exponentially, giving much more importance to recent observations while still not discarding older observations entirely. The graph at right shows an example of the weight decrease".

Hope that it helps
THANKS A LOT! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
  • #4,797
  • May 23, 2007 7:28pm May 23, 2007 7:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
Talks now have EJ @ 170...

The dollar traded initially lower versus the yen, in sympathy to all the dollar selling versus the pound, and recovered later in the NY session. The Euro/JPY cross had a nice pop higher as the dollar rallied versus the yen, eclipsing 164.00 a talked about “barrier level” for the past several weeks. The Eur/Jpy look to be eyeing 170, and unless there is not some interest rate change (read much higher) in Japan anytime soon, its probably not a good idea to bet against this pair.
Hold on, when did EUR/JPY breach the 164.00 level? My charts show a high of 163.99 before a 50+ pip correction down to 163.47 currently. If anything this should reaffirm the strength of the barrier there. I could see how some brokers might show a few pips difference in price there but a few pips can hardly be called an 'eclipse'!

Be careful. Manage your potential losses and enjoy the current conditions because there is plenty of money to be made, but I'm still saying don't be surprised when the fall comes because it will come. The world is screaming for it.
  • #4,798
  • May 23, 2007 8:16pm May 23, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting nathbear
Hold on, when did EUR/JPY breach the 164.00 level? My charts show a high of 163.99 before a 50+ pip correction down to 163.47 currently. If anything this should reaffirm the strength of the barrier there. I could see how some brokers might show a few pips difference in price there but a few pips can hardly be called an 'eclipse'!

Be careful. Manage your potential losses and enjoy the current conditions because there is plenty of money to be made, but I'm still saying don't be surprised when the fall comes because it will come. The world is screaming for it.
The world screaming for it? Ok, but I dont think the market is... Never be so sure about what the market will do...
  • #4,799
  • May 23, 2007 8:39pm May 23, 2007 8:39pm
If I was sure, I'd already be short, which i'm not. In fact, I just closed out my longs for considerable profit pending more evaluation.

Eventually, though, the market catches on to what the world wants and reacts accordingly. This is why fundamental news announcements can have such an effect on currency prices. All I am saying in this case is to not get so involved in your trades as to think this period of northward movement can and will go on forever because it won't.
  • #4,800
  • May 23, 2007 8:40pm May 23, 2007 8:40pm
As we say in Brazil, "an empty mind is the devil's office". 163.99, 164.00, 164.01, who the hell cares?

I got IBFX 164.00 and GFT 164.01, should I then file suit against IBFX for "ripping me off"???....

That's why during choppy markets I go graba nap, shopping whatever. If I stay in front of the computer, breakouts in the M5 appears, impossible trendlines pop up, fbonaccis with the low of Jan/1982 starts worring me

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