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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,361
  • Jun 23, 2023 2:08pm Jun 23, 2023 2:08pm
Thread update, 5 weeks into the experiment, and a few changes. Firstly my EU shorts ride has been interesting but as it fell recently I closed some of the positions to reduce exposure to the pair, I decided to close 1 losing and 1 winning trade and make a small gain each time, I still have short exposure on the pair but this is much reduced and I'll continue to collect the swap whilst I wait. I've added SPX500 and USDMXN to the basket and this has worked well, both pay finance overnight and USDMXN allows me to short USD directly which hedges my long USD positions. Takes a while to get a feel for unfamiliar pairs so I'm still tweaking the grid sizes.

5 weeks in, 361 auto trades taken and equity = +9%, last week was a losing week due to my overexposure to EU, hopefully this should be less of a problem going forward.

Glastonbury ?
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,362
  • Edited 4:41pm Jun 28, 2023 4:28pm | Edited 4:41pm
This is actually week 7 of my hedge experiment (should be 6 weeks in the post above) so just updating the diary with a few thoughts. My basket potentially contains 4 pairs, 2 indices and gold, and whilst my long EU continues to collect positive overnight finance, other instruments continue to hit TPs. Equity is today at 7% after 7 weeks but that balance figure would be nice to realise. By pausing some of the pairs/indices I seem to be able to hold a reasonably stable hedge position and collect TPs and finance, which slowly increases the equity. Still a work in progress with grid sizes and correlations but still happy to let the EAs do their thing, it's been good to see the balance increase whilst still holding a short position on EU for weeks.

Very little emotion now and feels more like a maths exercise than trading, still no SL in sight, will continue to update if only for my own records.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,363
  • Jul 7, 2023 2:07pm Jul 7, 2023 2:07pm
End of week 8 update, equity@ +10.34% = weekly gains of +1.29%, dropping gold as backtesting shows some bigger DD scenarios and I'm not a fan of the way it behaves even though I've profited from it. Adjusted my graduated grids so they get 10% tighter as price moves away from the first trade, each pair has its own set of parameters after some optimisation using MT4,working mostly on 1hr charts now.

Of the 8 weeks so far, 7 = profitable with a 4% DD on the odd one, no predictions, no stopless, minimal screentime, and so the story continues.

Have a good weekend all.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,364
  • Jul 7, 2023 2:32pm Jul 7, 2023 2:32pm
Quoting LazyTrades
End of week 8 update, equity@ +10.34% = weekly gains of +1.29%, dropping gold as backtesting shows some bigger DD scenarios and I'm not a fan of the way it behaves even though I've profited from it. Adjusted my graduated grids so they get 10% tighter as price moves away from the first trade, each pair has its own set of parameters after some optimisation using MT4,working mostly on 1hr charts now. Of the 8 weeks so far, 7 = profitable with a 4% DD on the odd one, no predictions, no stopless, minimal screentime, and so the story continues. ...
excellent...
  • #2,365
  • Jul 8, 2023 3:02am Jul 8, 2023 3:02am
Quoting birdland
it's been exactly one month since i started the experiment here on a small account. that's why i closed out all positions today;-) as far as possible, i didn't let my knowledge flow in and really bought and sold without bias. after all, +10% or +1118 pips or $1000 with little effort in one month. the interim decline was about 5-6%. all statistics (more transparency like here is not possible) plus equity curve here: {image} {image} {image} {image}
update after 3 1/2 months: +37%

i changed nothing, still trading GU only and just a look every 2-3 hours for placing limitorders and thats it. no stop loss, only limitorders.
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,366
  • Jul 8, 2023 3:23am Jul 8, 2023 3:23am
You guys are smashing it ...excellent ...
  • #2,367
  • Jul 8, 2023 4:13am Jul 8, 2023 4:13am
hi dear . really i like to learn and trade hedge and averaging system i tried it many times but i have no strategy for it till now i searched some pages of your topic here but i did not get your idea can you help me to learn your system if possible if there is recap post thanx for that
  • #2,368
  • Edited 7:18am Jul 8, 2023 4:53am | Edited 7:18am
Impressive figures Bird, and there's me thinking I was doing alright . A quick look every 2-3hrs is also key info, similar to myself although I rarely intervene now (I do run simulations at weekends and evenings tho if/when I feel the need (in case anyone reading/thinks this is easy/set and forget). Thx also for posting your report, hope you don't mind my take based on your equity numbers (if you closed everything now, for others reading):

10K + 2.7K profit = +27%, divide by 15.2 weeks (3.5 months) = approx +1.8% per week. (I'm running currently at +1.3% but still a work in progress)

Now I'm thinking I give you all my money, you take 0.2% per week and I'll have even less screen time . Seriously tho, this should show others what is possible with a certain mindset, keep posting from time to time pls, it's useful to compare.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,369
  • Jul 8, 2023 5:05am Jul 8, 2023 5:05am
Quoting dramrtalaak
hi dear . really i like to learn and trade hedge and averaging system i tried it many times but i have no strategy for it till now i searched some pages of your topic here but i did not get your idea can you help me to learn your system if possible if there is recap post thanx for that
Hello Dram, everyone is pretty friendly here and happy to help, my advice: please read the entire thread many times over, stop every time someting doesn't make sense and re-read. Post others' results on your charts, open a simulator account for free (it's all you need) and run trades for hours to see how pairs behave and to give yourself an idea of how long you may be in DD and the sort of equity you'll need to cover margin.

Don't take this the wrong way but asking for quick answers suggests the search for quick solutions, I've been trading for many years and have invested 1000s of hours in various trading persuits, I think you'll need to spend many weeks just getting your head around what goes on here. I still go back and review past trades and posts and never consider myself as anything better than a beginner, looking for a reasonable way not to lose.

The good news is that if you absorb some of the info in Rob's thread here it can save you some down/doubt time.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,370
  • Jul 8, 2023 5:12am Jul 8, 2023 5:12am
Quoting dramrtalaak
hi dear . really i like to learn and trade hedge and averaging system i tried it many times but i have no strategy for it till now i searched some pages of your topic here but i did not get your idea can you help me to learn your system if possible if there is recap post thanx for that
as Lazy said in his latest post it's not a set and forget system no really a system just tools that you use to help your own trading style and the only way to learn to use these tools is to try out yourself nobody can tell you, everything you need is through out the thread, if you put the work in you will be rewarded but it does require at lot of work...
  • #2,371
  • Jul 8, 2023 8:16am Jul 8, 2023 8:16am
Quoting LazyTrades
Impressive figures Bird, and there's me thinking I was doing alright . A quick look every 2-3hrs is also key info, similar to myself although I rarely intervene now (I do run simulations at weekends and evenings tho if/when I feel the need (in case anyone reading/thinks this is easy/set and forget). Thx also for posting your report, hope you don't mind my take based on your equity numbers (if you closed everything now, for others reading): 10K + 2.7K profit = +27%, divide by 15.2 weeks (3.5 months) = approx +1.8% per week. (I'm running...
yes exactly 27% realised profit, that's what goes there. i use leverage 1:1 per position, so none.

but if i have 7 shorts and 2 longs open at the same time the leverage is of course 5 on the total amount (7-2=5)

i used to manage money and finally put it to rest about 15 years ago. freedom and independence are worth more to me than even more money;-)

i don't even understand why traders work for prob firms...but not my problem.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #2,372
  • Jul 8, 2023 12:44pm Jul 8, 2023 12:44pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} as Lazy said in his latest post it's not a set and forget system no really a system just tools that you use to help your own trading style and the only way to learn to use these tools is to try out yourself nobody can tell you, everything you need is through out the thread, if you put the work in you will be rewarded but it does require at lot of work...
thank you good luck
  • #2,373
  • Jul 9, 2023 4:14am Jul 9, 2023 4:14am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hello Dram, everyone is pretty friendly here and happy to help, my advice: please read the entire thread many times over, stop every time someting doesn't make sense and re-read. Post others' results on your charts, open a simulator account for free (it's all you need) and run trades for hours to see how pairs behave and to give yourself an idea of how long you may be in DD and the sort of equity you'll need to cover margin. Don't take this the wrong way but asking for quick answers suggests the search for quick solutions, I've been trading...
ok thanks by the way i am in forex from 2008 i think everyone have to find his way and style of trading i think i find it already good luck for everyone of you
  • #2,374
  • Jul 16, 2023 4:45am Jul 16, 2023 4:45am
Nothing much to report this week, only small profits from some EurJpy and UsdMxn trades and the usual carry. Whilst USD stays weak I'm generally against the trend and currently holding 6x EurUsd shorts, this is only a very small part of my (real-money) trading capital though. This is where I believe running simulations and back-testing comes in useful however as you can see, using many year's of historical data, how these scenarios have played out in the past, so 6 levels doesn't concern me at all. Maybe trading/thinking more like the bookmaker rather than the punter might help (I could be wrong), have a good week ahead.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,375
  • Edited 10:40am Jul 28, 2023 9:38am | Edited 10:40am
Positive day today otherwise all quiet on the hedging front, currently +21% equity on my original investment, but have significantly increased my trading capital (real money) this week. TP has been too low previously and increasing this to close to the first grid level has helped a lot on each pair. Held an EU trade with no SL for over 7 weeks, patience the key, have a good weekend all.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,376
  • Edited 9:59am Aug 1, 2023 9:22am | Edited 9:59am
Short USDMXN, UK100 & EU, two more pairs yet to trigger, will see how this next round develops, could take days/weeks, collecting small swap in the meantime.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,377
  • Aug 1, 2023 1:18pm Aug 1, 2023 1:18pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} 6 x SHORTS BE 32471......don't reckon it will get there before the weekend but you never know...
still massively underwater with this particular trade, but did say you could be holding trades for months, didn't want you all to feel I've left the thread, so in the meantime at 8pm GMT I will post just my closing trades for the last 24hrs for a couple of weeks then will explain at the end what I'm doing, but it's an easy, low DD, little method that could produce a health return
  • #2,378
  • Aug 1, 2023 1:33pm Aug 1, 2023 1:33pm
Any input would always be welcome, I'm reasonably comfortable with what I'm doing at the moment as forward testing is replicating my backtesting. My guess is you are trading many more pairs than me as I'm positive swap only pairs. I've a largish account and not phased by the DD scenarios but would certainly welcome any real comparisons from grownups trading live. P.S. I read the cable thread for entertainment.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,379
  • Aug 1, 2023 2:02pm Aug 1, 2023 2:02pm
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  • #2,380
  • Aug 2, 2023 2:02pm Aug 2, 2023 2:02pm
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