The Employment Situation - June 2023

The Employment Situation - June 2023

From bls.gov

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, ... (full story)

Added at 7:44am

Payrolls rose by 209,000 in June, less than expected, as jobs growth wobbles

From cnbc.com

Employment growth eased in June, taking some steam out of what had been a stunningly strong labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 3.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday. That compared to the Dow Jones consensus estimates for growth of 240,000 and a jobless level of 3.6%. The total, while still solid from a historical perspective, marked a considerable drop from May’s downwardly revised total of 306,000 and was the slowest month for job creation since payrolls fell by 268,000 in December 2020. Closely watched wages numbers were slightly stronger than expected. ... (full story)

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Jul 7, 2023 7:54am

Nothing in here for pivot. Higher for longer remains even though some softening in Labor pressure.
Europe still appears in weaker state then US.
Market continues that Fed will pivot yet there is no reason for that given current data.

Bakker

Jul 7, 2023 8:43am

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It's clear there's a huge discrepancy in what ADP and Labor Statistics regard as employed.

rehmatkhan00

Jul 7, 2023 8:38am

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Quoting Giucca

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{quote} We all know that there are no more than 2 rate hikes left, and more importantly, we all see the situation in the US is terrible and getting worse. Who wants a currency of a country that's on a brink of a civil war?

Ignored

Yes, you are right Europe and UK economy is booming and everyone is crazy after their currencies

MatTrader101

Jul 7, 2023 7:49am

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Although NFP itself was slightly weaker, increase in working hours and earnings, plus unemployment rate going down, there is still huge pressure and very tight labour market, so FED will raise no doubt now.

USD to be neutral and for pairs to stay in range until Wednesday CPI numbers.

Giucca

Jul 7, 2023 8:28am

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Quoting jordanvic

Disliked

{quote} this fed is always wrong when predicting the future. its really hard for me to see them maintaining rates at this level in an election year. the market smells it

Ignored

We all know that there are no more than 2 rate hikes left, and more importantly, we all see the situation in the US is terrible and getting worse. Who wants a currency of a country that's on a brink of a civil war?

MatTrader101

Jul 7, 2023 8:40am

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Quoting OnlineAddict

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{quote} What are you talking about...market is moving PLENTY!

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Agreed, this is a haven for a day trader, levels are really respected today.

jordanvic

Jul 7, 2023 7:35am

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Good job ADP. you predicted it

BaliBoyz80

Jul 7, 2023 7:36am

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i think this is a good data, and look at avarage earn, jump again 0,4%...wonderfull. inflation going down, salary up, really promising.

foto

Jul 7, 2023 8:27am

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Quoting jordanvic

Disliked

{quote} this fed is always wrong when predicting the future. its really hard for me to see them maintaining rates at this level in an election year. the market smells it

Ignored

These numbers really do not present any systemic dangers that would alter Fed stance.
They are more consistent with Feds attempt at soft landing. Myself I am surprised at how resilient US economy continues, but it does just continue.
USD from this perspective has a yield advantage along with reserve currency status. In general parking money in a place where it is safe as the rest of the world enters period of convulsion has appeal.

jordanvic

Jul 7, 2023 8:15am

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Quoting foto

Disliked

Nothing in here for pivot. Higher for longer remains even though some softening in Labor pressure. Europe still appears in weaker state then US. Market continues that Fed will pivot yet there is no reason for that given current data.

Ignored

this fed is always wrong when predicting the future. its really hard for me to see them maintaining rates at this level in an election year. the market smells it

OnlineAddict

Jul 7, 2023 8:18am

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Quoting bel3ouchi

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What we need this weekend. Is geopolitical news from Europe. To move market

Ignored

What are you talking about...market is moving PLENTY!

bel3ouchi

Jul 7, 2023 7:57am

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What we need this weekend. Is geopolitical news from Europe. To move market

bel3ouchi

Jul 7, 2023 4:02pm

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get ready for high impact news this weekend .(geopolitical)

rehmatkhan00

Jul 7, 2023 8:17am

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I think we need to wait for some more hours to see what the price action does. Making assumptions and then making decisions base on these assumptions can affect our account t negatively

Giucca

Jul 7, 2023 8:26am

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Quoting Sennerd

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{quote} Anything in particular that makes you think that?

Ignored

The way markets reacted to the news, DXY dropped below a trendline, Gold wants to break out from a falling wedge...

Imtiyaz

Jul 7, 2023 8:48am

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I think job report is pressure on fed to rate hike wage are not considered now a days powl said in various testimonies wait for ecb talk

foto

Jul 7, 2023 5:04pm

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Quoting bel3ouchi

Disliked

get ready for high impact news this weekend .(geopolitical)

Ignored

Might very well be to explain today.

Business sets value based upon return vs risk which was missing in today's price action.
Unless there is a surprise collapse coming in CPI Wed. Fed is not moving from stance.
Market otherwise was far too content to ignore what is happening in other currencies.
Keeps gunning for a pivot which is not in the cards.

Giucca

Jul 7, 2023 7:50am

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Not sure if the data is good for the dollar, but price action says, the dollar is going to dump.

Analyst007

Jul 7, 2023 7:41am

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Good data for dollar!

Akrabu

Jul 7, 2023 7:44am

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Do these data provide stronger evidence supporting the FED's inclination to raise or maintain its rates in July?

Trader#01EE

Jul 7, 2023 7:49am

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Quoting BaliBoyz80

Disliked

i think this is a good data, and look at avarage earn, jump again 0,4%...wonderfull. inflation going down, salary up, really promising.

Ignored

Earnings have not kept up with inflation for 26 consecutive months, People are earning more but still becoming poorer every month. There are no roses here.