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15 minute opening range Forex

  • #161
  • Jul 7, 2023 6:09am Jul 7, 2023 6:09am
Quoting Shakka
{quote} That should be a buy trade IMO.
Yes right. Thanks for letting me know. Corrected the image.
  • #162
  • Jul 7, 2023 6:41am Jul 7, 2023 6:41am
GBP/USD - 07/07/2023

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Looks like another one stopped out. Not sure about using a fixed stop loss that is at the opposite fib level. You basically get stopped out on noise, using a 6 Pips stop loss on a volatile pair like GBP/USD. Especially on the Open where the volatility is expected to be higher.

I know this is scalping approach but hm. There might be a better way to deal with the SL otherwise it doesn't seem to work out well, only trading 1 forex pair, only doing 1 order per day/setup. On the other hand if you constantly have to re-enter everything changes. You need more time to be there in front of your chart/platform to execute the orders, you need to have other position sizing. You may also want to scale in then and add to a winning trade instead of using a fixed X:X RR type of a trade.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #163
  • Jul 7, 2023 7:01am Jul 7, 2023 7:01am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Understand. But what if the 3rd candle doesn't touch the entry trigger a second time? In my example, price could have continued down without the next candle touching the entry trigger again. So then you don't enter? So I try to summarize. - Orders are ONLY placed within the 15 minute candle AFTER the candle that first broke the high/low of the range is CLOSED. - Orders are ONLY placed when price then touches the Fib level (30%,50%). It might do not, then there is no order. - Orders are ONLY placed in the opposite direction of the first M15...
If it does not trigger, no trade regardless of the result after hindsight

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Rjer4Fjd

This london open euro is a 1 to 1 potential at best. So i consider it -1 since the target was 1 to 5.

I'll write the summary of the day again later.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/UHPioJ28

This one for cable or gbp usd only 3r potentially.

Quoting lddd
GBP/USD - 07/07/2023 {image} Looks like another one stopped out. Not sure about using a fixed stop loss that is at the opposite fib level. You basically get stopped out on noise, using a 6 Pips stop loss on a volatile pair like GBP/USD. Especially on the Open where the volatility is expected to be higher. I know this is scalping approach but hm. There might be a better way to deal with the SL otherwise it doesn't seem to work out well, only trading 1 forex pair, only doing 1 order per day/setup. On the other hand if you constantly have to re-enter...
There's two ways to deal with the stop loss

1. Use the range as stop loss or risk
2. The 0 to 33% as stop loss or risk.
Whether you choose one or the other, what matters is rr must be greater than 2.
3. If you get stopped out. Step back and let it go.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #164
  • Jul 7, 2023 10:08am Jul 7, 2023 10:08am
Euro whole day price action based on open and close
15 min range, 15 pierce, 15 reversal on 1/3rd of range.

Profit atleast 1 to 2

Sydney open and close
Open no trade
Close no trade

Tokyo open and close
Open no trade
Close -1

London open
-1

Ny open
5r atleast (imperfect entry, entered at .9 but got atleast 5r) (subjective entry unfortunately since v9lume was good but didnt start at .3

3r for.today. not bad.

Strictly speaking today would have been -2
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #165
  • Jul 7, 2023 10:29am Jul 7, 2023 10:29am
Quoting Sovy
This one for cable or gbp usd only 3r potentially. There's two ways to deal with the stop loss 1. Use the range as stop loss or risk 2. The 0 to 33% as stop loss or risk. Whether you choose one or the other, what matters is rr must be greater than 2. 3. If you get stopped out. Step back and let it go.
I've used the 0% level (-1R) as my SL in this example. It didn't even reach to +1R (100%). Totally irrelevant if there is/was/will be a potential 3R or 100R in the future. I would have gotten stopped out on this one before it even reached to the +1R target at 100%.

Here's the GBP/USD chart again for today on the London Open including the Fib plotted over it to see the levels.

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  • #166
  • Jul 7, 2023 10:51am Jul 7, 2023 10:51am
Quoting Sovy
Rules 1. Measure the opening range (around 4.4 pips) 2. It first went south, so buy the 38% or 50% 3. Stop loss 4.4 4. Tp 1.6 level or 2.6 level or prudent 1 to 1 https://www.tradingview.com/x/oyhh0P2Q
In the example for June 19th and EURUSD you had an inside bar after the range was formed. Here's M15 chart to see it better. What to do in this case? Do we enter or skip. The first buy opportunity then would have been at 10:45. 10:30-10:45 pierced the Low.

10:00 M15 formed the range
10:15 did nothing (Inside Candle)
10:30 pierced the Low
10:45 BUY or too late!?

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  • #167
  • Jul 7, 2023 11:38am Jul 7, 2023 11:38am
EURUSD London Open - If 0.3 entry triggered,maybe it did due to low spread on this instrument SL hit,small loss move on

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  • #168
  • Jul 8, 2023 9:07pm Jul 8, 2023 9:07pm
Adding levels to aggressiveness of entry using .1 deviations. Where 0 to 1 0.1, 0.2,..., 1.

The idea is the higher the standard diviation. The more the volume, the less chances for getting stopped and easier getting a 1 to 1 x 1 to 2 or more.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gtkUmi8N.

Quoting lddd
{quote} In the example for June 19th and EURUSD you had an inside bar after the range was formed. Here's M15 chart to see it better. What to do in this case? Do we enter or skip. The first buy opportunity then would have been at 10:45. 10:30-10:45 pierced the Low. 10:00 M15 formed the range 10:15 did nothing (Inside Candle) 10:30 pierced the Low 10:45 BUY or too late!? {image}
If 2nd bar does not break the high and or low, i would not trade.

Quoting lddd
{quote} I've used the 0% level (-1R) as my SL in this example. It didn't even reach to +1R (100%). Totally irrelevant if there is/was/will be a potential 3R or 100R in the future. I would have gotten stopped out on this one before it even reached to the +1R target at 100%. Here's the GBP/USD chart again for today on the London Open including the Fib plotted over it to see the levels. {image}
Therr is the 2 stop out rule. Where if 1 entry gets stopped, because the entry is tight, you're allowed to try again.

I simply don't do this anymore because i set and forget with a 1 to 5.

If i get stopped out, i move on. There are other sessions.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/IBhUFvnL

This only got 1.5 rr. As i gamble with a 1 to 5, id get stopped out.

If i trail stopped, i would have secured a 1 to 1. It got .3 to .8 so that is more than 1 to 1.

So it really is a matter of how you plan to approach the rules. Do you move stop loss? Or set and forget?
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #169
  • Jul 9, 2023 1:55am Jul 9, 2023 1:55am
Price is fractal

1 min reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/8YieoUT2

1 stop out, 1 to 5 r+

3 mins reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/wMzyqmc9

5 mins reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rJuOBja3

15 mins reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/A6HqAqiv

30 mins reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JkOiCNHg

1 h reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ODe06vRU

4h reversal

https://www.tradingview.com/x/N3q7Ntj3

Daily reversal

Monday is the range

https://www.tradingview.com/x/EuQJpBbh

Weekly reversal

1st week is range
https://www.tradingview.com/x/05EiqQ4q

Ok anything beyond this is really really long. But for the sake

https://www.tradingview.com/x/43foXEbn

Quarterly first month is range.

So on and so forth.

Summary

Find the when, and apply a model that you trust. Any model, price action, supply demand, occilators, fibs, flip coin. Provided it is on the proper range of the time.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #170
  • Jul 9, 2023 3:16am Jul 9, 2023 3:16am
Hey Sovy. It looks to me like you don't really have a solid trading plan yet. Much seems to be very vaguely defined. So I'm a bit surprised/irritated how you were able to do a reliable backtest at all? In your first posts you talked about 1:2 risk/reward, now it's 1:5. The entry rules also seem to vary here and there.

If you were able to agree on any rules, please post them again and I will do a backtest for GU and EU based on the last few months.

Good luck so far, regards!
  • #171
  • Jul 9, 2023 3:22am Jul 9, 2023 3:22am
Quoting Sovy
The more the volume, the less chances for getting stopped and easier getting a 1 to 1 x 1 to 2 or more.
Who proved that? More volume simply means more volume. Nothing to do with getting stopped out less often or not.

Quoting Sovy
If 2nd bar does not break the high and or low, i would not trade.
  • #172
  • Jul 9, 2023 5:38am Jul 9, 2023 5:38am
Quoting lddd
Hey Sovy. It looks to me like you don't really have a solid trading plan yet. Much seems to be very vaguely defined. So I'm a bit surprised/irritated how you were able to do a reliable backtest at all? In your first posts you talked about 1:2 risk/reward, now it's 1:5. The entry rules also seem to vary here and there. If you were able to agree on any rules, please post them again and I will do a backtest for GU and EU based on the last few months. Good luck so far, regards!
I dont mind if you think that way. This method works for me and like i said, i know no method that is pureply mechanice. A part of it is subjective.

I have a method for 15 mins down to a minute and up to weekly. It's just a matter of if the signal shows itself and when. And in this thread i focused on the 15min reversal.

From the word reversal, i also therefore know the not reversal. The key thing to get from this is know when to trade and you can decide which model works for you.

Quoting lddd
{quote} Who proved that? More volume simply means more volume. Nothing to do with getting stopped out less often or not. {quote}
https://www.investopedia.com/article...the%20downside.

More volume more buying or selling pressure. More opportunity for one direction or the reversal of it. This is nothing new.

rules for the 15 mins range is still the same.

From open, close, or news announcement. 15 min passes, that is the range. The next 15 mins must breach the high and or low. 3rd bar goes the opposing direction and that is where we place the order at the .3 or .5. And target atleast 1 to 2.

I am in this thread refining the process on making it easier for me.

As risk rule spread x 10 is the minimum stop loss.
Range of 15 mins must be equal to or more than the above.
Atr 15 must be equal to or more than the spread x 10.

For agressive traders, 0 to .3 is the risk. Or 0 to .5. Anything above 0.5 is ok too even at 1. But that is subjective and based on the trader.

If you are not profitable with this method, then it may not be your style of trading. Like you can use the when to trade here and add your own model and test if it works for you.

Trade the open, trade the close, trade the news. But if you're experimenting, demo trade it first.

I will continue to refine this method and little changes over the next posts will happen. Like atr 15m will appear starting next week.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AC9rLXji

Bitcoin usd

15 m range

1. Measure the 15 min range from asia opening that is 8 am to 8 15 am +8 gmt
2. 47 ticks roughly
3. 2nd bar pierces down
4. 3rd bar goes up, entry on .3. Stop loss 47 and tp 94.

Profit.

For aggressive

1. 0 to .3 is the risk
2. 1 to 5 r

Atr 15m

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0lvkQRzn
33

Entry at .3 tp 66 ticks from entry

Profit 1 to 2.

All methods aligned at this time.

i will have to further study the meaning of the range being greater than its atr value in 15m.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #173
  • Jul 9, 2023 10:59am Jul 9, 2023 10:59am
I would not set any more rules for your entry. This probably only makes the whole strategy unnecessarily complicated and not more profitable.
  • #174
  • Jul 9, 2023 8:25pm Jul 9, 2023 8:25pm
Tokyo open euro

15 min range
2nd candle pierced below
3rd candle enroute to going up

1 to 2 r.

Aggresive entry .3 to .9 tp
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Tl9PUPtn

This may still go to 1 is to 5. If not, that is ok.

1 is to 1 on .5 to 1 entry

Checking range as stop loss

Not yet 1 to 1. So there is room for more to the upside.

Atr 15m
4.3 pips

1 to 1 met.

1 to 2 still in the process.

Seems like if range > than 15m atr. Higher chances for reversals. Mmm

Seems like atr may add a confluence.

Quoting lddd
I would not set any more rules for your entry. This probably only makes the whole strategy unnecessarily complicated and not more profitable.
Refining something to be better may make it worse but I learn more about it in the process. And doing it this way may filter out some entries that may seem good at first glance but may not be at all.

Following the original rules the range as tp, i can now use that as possible 1 to 1 or possible minimum target.

The atr 15m < the range seems to show that this atr breakout supports a reversal. In the least it gives an easy way to put one's stop loss with the original tp as target or 1 to 2.

Then there's the two aggressive entries the .3 to .9 tp and .5 to 1 or 1.5

Giving people more options on what makes it easier is the subjective part or the art in trading. More profit or atleast more room for improvement and navigating against losses.

The harder part of trading is the management of one's trade.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #175
  • Jul 9, 2023 8:46pm Jul 9, 2023 8:46pm
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5aCdpmzi

Trail stop only up to here. Will see if i can higher rr on the next session
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #176
  • Jul 10, 2023 2:34am Jul 10, 2023 2:34am
Quoting Sovy
Refining something to be better may make it worse but I learn more about it in the process. And doing it this way may filter out some entries that may seem good at first glance but may not be at all.
Just be careful not to do too many refinements. Google "Curve Fitting". If you have a final strategy with your rules, backtest it. Do it properly and test over a long period of time to include as many different market conditions as possible. I suggest at least 5 years, preferably 10. The longer the better. Then test the same rules again without adjustments but against a completely different time span (out-of-sample). If it still showed consistent performance, maybe you found a little edge.

Quoting Sovy
Giving people more options on what makes it easier is the subjective part or the art in trading. More profit or atleast more room for improvement and navigating against losses.
I personally don't think so. If you wan't art better start painting. It's all about managing risk! You lose some, you win some. If your wins are greater than your losses, you win in the long run. Many people who want to look smart and give "options/opinions" but are they consistently making money trading.

Quoting Sovy
The harder part of trading is the management of one's trade.
Not so much. In fact, I think the less you do, the better. If you move your stop, just move it up. Don't ever give it more space. Otherwise, let the market do the work. You either make a profit or you make a loss on the trade. Does not matter. The main thing is that at the end of a period you have reached your goal after having several trades/days.
  • #177
  • Edited 3:08am Jul 10, 2023 2:48am | Edited 3:08am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Just be careful not to do too many refinements. Google "Curve Fitting". If you have a final strategy with your rules, backtest it. Do it properly and test over a long period of time to include as many different market conditions as possible. I suggest at least 5 years, preferably 10. The longer the better. Then test the same rules again without adjustments but against a completely different time span (out-of-sample). If it still showed consistent performance, maybe you found a little edge. {quote} I personally don't think so. If you wan't...
Youre entitled to your view point. and i will continue to do as i will. Thank you for your insights.

And here's a mechanical 1 to 1 rule based for you.

1. Range is 15m on any opening or closing
2. Measure the range for risk
3. 2nd 15m pierces the high or low
4. Enter at opposing entry 1/2 the candle.
5. Risk = range of candle
6. Tp range of candle.

This is the only one i can think of that may fit your liking. Outside of this.

P.s. if you want to see my point of view, we can always do a voice in discord. So i can also share the daily bias and other ideas that i haven't posted in this forum.

Cheers.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #178
  • Jul 10, 2023 3:11am Jul 10, 2023 3:11am
euro london open 15m range reversal

1. 15 min is range
2. 2nd bar pierces down
3. 3rd bar goes up

Entry at .3 risk and reward is the range of the candle, moved sl to +1. And waiting for the trade to finish.

Range of candle is roughly 15 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #179
  • Jul 10, 2023 3:16am Jul 10, 2023 3:16am
Quoting Sovy
euro london open 15m range reversal 1. 15 min is range 2. 2nd bar pierces down 3. 3rd bar goes up Entry at .3 risk and reward is the range of the candle, moved sl to +1. And waiting for the trade to finish. Range of candle is roughly 15 pips {image}
Looks good. But not matching the rules. The range broke on the Low so you want to BUY on the following candle. However it first reversed to the entry level (0.3) within the last M15 candle for the hour (11:00). So why did you take the trade?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #180
  • Jul 10, 2023 3:30am Jul 10, 2023 3:30am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Looks good. But not matching the rules. The range broke on the Low so you want to BUY on the following candle. However it first reversed to the entry level (0.3) within the last M15 candle for the hour (11:00). So why did you take the trade? {image}
Because the 3rd candle triggered the entry.

It did follow my rules. 2nd candle broke the low of the first. 3rd triggered the buy at .3

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z2JdiZMr
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
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