Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Thanks, Monarch, good answer!

Clam61, I've revealed quite a few clues during this thread regarding my methodology. Besides EW Theory, I've developed my own proprietary method for determining points where the market is likely to reverse - call it the "Q" System. Call them support and resistance values, if you like. They are often very precise, but the complexity is quite high so the method is prone to error. Even as the inventor of the system I often make mistakes, but I am improving. The system works on different time frames, and when there is a convergence of values generated from different timeframes, then the probability of a reversal at that precise point is particularly high. The method is mathematical and geometrical, involving price movement, and is still undergoing research and development.

When the Q system and the Elliott Wave theory both point to a certain point, then the likelihood of a reversal at that point is very good. The difficulty is in accomplishing the task of performing both analyses accurately and in a timely fashion. When I've taken the time, and been in the right frame of mind, then the results have generally been very good.

I don't employ any technical indicators, because I'm too ignorant of them. I suspect that a person could employ technical indicators to advantage if they knew enough about the behavior of the market and what they were looking for. But I haven't reached that point yet. However, I would speculate that there is a characteristic early signature of a very strong movement developing. I'm sure alot of research has gone into this question already, so there are undoubtedly some experts out there who know how to detect a strong trend using technical indicators, as well as the characteristic signature of a strong trend coming to an end and reversing.

hi itme

clues huh?

wow, i wish this thread wasn't so long! do you remember around what pages you made these clues available? beginning, middle, end?

thanks itme!

Sorry, I can't tell you where the clues are, because I don't know. However, the search function at the bottom of this and every page could be helpful if you discover some keywords.

Generally, the clues are inspersed throughout the thread, and follow in sequence. There aren't that many text blocks, so you may want to scan just the text blocks and ignore most of the trade signals.

Sorry, it won't be easy, and I don't think that the activity will necessarily be very helpful. I suspect that there are other more mature, well documented trading systems out there already. However, very few, if any, that hold as much promise of super high returns as this approach.

The following post which was the launch of a controversial thread ( a thread which was eventually relegated to the dungeon of this site for allegedly being a satire) contains some essential mathematical understandings which underlie the logic of our trading method. Take the allegations in this following piece of what is possible as far as trading is concerned separately, and just examine the mathematical proof that financial return on a trade equals Reward : Risk Ratio times Risk Factor. It is vital that one understands this point very well before they can appreciate the merit of my trading approach.

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From $7.00 to $770 Billion in Two Weeks Trading Program <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> First of all, I would like to acknowledge that the title of this thread is somewhat misleading. It says " From $7.00 to $770 Billion in 2 Weeks Trading Program" whereas in reality this thread is about making $7.7 trillion in two weeks, not just $770 billion. But if most people heard that we planned to multiply $7 into $7.7 trillion in just two weeks, they probably couldn't believe it. So we snagged them with a more conservative figure of $770 billion. True, $770 billion is no small change, but it's a far cry from $7.7 trillion, which is about the size of the world economy (if I'm not mistaken).

Now that we've dispensed with our confessions, we will, without further ado, get on with the serious part of this thread, namely how to capapult $7 into $7.7 trillion in just two short weeks, working only five days a week.

I was tinkering in the forex factory this morning when I made a monumental discovery! I was playing with formulas and discovered the secret to ultimate wealth multiplication, namely that the return on capital is simply a product of the reward / risk ratio and risk factor, expressed by the following formula:

Earnings per Trade = Initial Capital * (Times) Reward : Risk Ratio * (Times) Risk Factor

The combined return on capital from a series of similar trades is the per trade multiplier multiplied by itself by the number of trades

So if ...

TCi = Initial Trading Capital

RRR = Reward : Risk Ratio

RF = Risk Factor ( percentage of capital that could be lost in each trade)

MF = Multiplication factor per trade

#T = number of trades in a trading program

MFTP = multiplication factor in a total trading program

Then,

MF = TCi + (RRR * RF* TCi) / TCi , and

MFTP = Exponential (MF : #T)

Capital at the end of the trading program = TCi * MFTP

Final capital = TCi * Exponential (TCi + (RRR * RF* TCi) / TCi : #T)

As a consequence of this incredible discovery, my friend and I have decided to start with his trading account which is currently sitting at $7.00 , and we will find an average of four winning trades each day which have a reward : risk ratio of an average of five to one. We will trade with a 20% risk factor.

Since Earnings per Trade = Initial Trading Capital * Reward : Risk Ratio * Risk Factor

In this case:

TCi = $7
RRR = 5.0
RF = 20% = .20

Therefore the return on capital per trade will be 7 * 5 * .20 = $7 for the first trade, representing a 100% return on capital.

MF = Multiplication factor per trade
#T = number of trades in a trading program

MF = TCi + (RRR * RF * TCi) / TCi = 7 + (5 * .2 * 7) / 7 = 2.0

This means that the money in the trading account will double with each trade.

If we perform 4 winning trades per day, for 10 days, then we will perform a total of 40 winning trades. (#T = 40). Since the account will double with each trade, the performance of the trading program will be:

MF = TCi + (RRR * RF* TCi) / TCi = 7 + ( 5 * .2 * 7) / 7 = 2.0

MFTP = Exponential (MF : #T) = Exponential (TCi + (RRR * RF* TCi) / TCi : #T) = Exponential ( 2.0 : 40 ) = 1.1 X 10 to the Twelfth power

Final capital = TCi * MFTP = TCi * Exponential (TCi + (RRR * RF* TCi) / TCi : #T)

Capital at the end of the 2 week trading program = TCi * MFTP = $7 * 1.1 X 10 twelfth power = 7.7 X 10 twelfth power = $7.7 Trillion

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In case anyone doubts the veracity of the above mathematics, we will provide a common example.

Let's say you trade in a mini account with 400:1 leverage. (FX Solutions and other brokers provide this kind of leverage.) Your account value is $1000. If you can find a way to trade with a reward : risk ratio of 5 : 1, and use a risk factor of 20%, then if you win each trade you will double your account with each trade in the following fashion:

Lets say your trade has a 10 pip risk (the stop size plus the spread) for a 50 pip reward. With a risk factor of 20%, you will be willing to risk $200 in the first trade. That means, since the stop is 10 pips, you will be taking 20 lots at $1 per lot. With a 400:1 account the collatoral will be $25 per lot, for a total of $500. That leaves $500 in the account to accomodate the stop.

When the trade is won, then the earnings will be 20 lots times 50 pips reward times $1 per pip per lot. The total earnings will therefore be $1,000 , which means the multiplication of the account will be times 2.0. The trading account will double each and every trade that is won.

This process will be repeated 4 times per day for ten days.

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With the above amazing mathematical discovery, we have decided to risk $7 to attempt this astonishing feat of trading.

We will only need to trade 5 days a week, which means that we will take two days off each week to rest.

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The only outstanding issue that I have not yet addressed, is how exactly we are going to accomplish finding four winning trades each day with a reward : risk ratio of 5:1 or better.

This would be extremely difficult for most people.

However, we believe that we are uniquely equipped to accomplish this.

First of all, both of us are using a trading model that has delivered this kind of results for its inventor for many months. We are not nearly as skilled yet at implementing this trading model, but we think that with teamwork and care we might be able to pull it off.

If other people set their minds to the task, we believe that they will have a fighting chance of achieving this kind of trading skill also.

In my other trade journal, where my partners and I tried to generate trading signals with a high reward : risk ratio, we ran into various problems. Chief among them were the issues of getting into the trades at the exact price when there was a delay in getting the information to the recipients of the trading signals, as well as the difficulty in finding trades which would travel a long way to a predictable destination sufficient to create a good reward : risk ratio.

Meanwhile we discovered that there are numerous opportunities each and every day to enter trades employing our analytical model where the accuracy level is a matter of only two or three pips, and the reward is a minimum of 25 to 75 pips. These are not the kind of trades,however, that would lend themselves to trading signals, as they need to be entered into with split second accuracy when the precise conditions are fulfilled. Both the exit and the entry price can only be precisely established at the time when the trade is entered and exited.

We realised that it is much easier to risk five pips to make 25 pips than it is to risk 45 pips to make 225 pips. But according to the irrefutable mathematics above, the impact on the trading account is exactly the same! In both examples the reward : risk ratio is 5: 1. So we will alter our strategy slightly and focus on ultra high accuracy entries with more modest targets. The number of opportunities with this kind of trade is much higher, so it should be much easier to double our account four times daily with this strategy than with the previous strategy.

We will keep all the readers apprised of our progress. You should not need to wait long, as the $7 starting capital, 400:1 trading account is up and waiting to be multiplied hourly until the broker is challenged with its enormous size and unparalleled growth curve.

I just hope that my friend doesn't get struck by the enormity of what we about to set out to do and chicken out before we get to try this out. This will make a great story to tell our grandchildren.

Finally, one might ask how to open an account with only $7.00. True, most brokers require an initial deposit of at least $250 or $300. However, if one trades a live account before one fully understands the science of money management, or before one has achieved sufficient skill in currency trading, or if one gets carried away with the heady liquor of success, and starts trading day and night without sleep, bathing, food, water, exercise (or any movement of any kind, outside of the finger movements necessitated by currency trading), social contact, or any of the other niceties of life, then the result is usually, if not invariably the rapid diminution of the initial trading capital until one is left with an account bearing only $49.50, or in some cases, $7.00 in it.

The skeptic will wonder how a person who has dissipated his trading account so severely one day, can be expected to string together 40 winning 5:1 reward / risk factor trades in a row the next. Well, the answer is that whatever one has done before, one can always learn from it and do better the next time. Where there is life, there is always hope, and hope springs eternal in the bosom of certain rare individuals. We are such individuals, and ever since we set out several years ago to make a fortune in the forex market, we have only been encouraged by the discoveries we have made about this market, and about ourselves. We are both rich in experience, and wise in knowledge, and mature in temperament, and so thus we feel that we are both adequately prepared to achieve the great feat of expanding $7 into $7.7 trillion in two weeks.

This one has some good information in it:

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...mula#post59332

Dear sir,

What should be the target for gbp in two months. 2.00 or 1.80. Please guide.

A wrong wave count on GBP/CHF resulted in a lost trade after we re-entered the buy position at 2.3535. The entry price we chose was the exact bottom of the third wave down, and thus the beginning of a fourth corrective wave, and not the bottom of an A-B-C downwards corrective wave of a new first impulse wave up which is what we imagined it was.

After we entered the buy trade there was a small (55 pips) fourth corrective wave up to 2.3590, then a strong extended fifth wave down which resulted in hitting the stop.

We should have been able to count this GBP/CHF wave pattern properly. When we re-visited the pattern later, the wave pattern was quite clear. Evidently we didn't take enough care when studying the wave pattern originally.

According to our current hypothesis, GBP/CHF will reverse now at 2.3400, or descend a bit further to about 2.3385 before reversing. This will probably happen when GBP/USD starts to rise strongly again and USD/CHF falls some more, but proportionately not as strongly.

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Previous comments and trade signals:

Wednesday November 22 at 4:15 ET]

Re-enter buy trade on Trade Signal #233C Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3535

A clear A-B-C downwards corrective wave is now complete, and the most high probability reversal value of 2.3530 was met as predicted yesterday November 21.
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Temporarily Exit Trade Signal #233C Buy GBP/CHF <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Tuesday November 21 at 10:00 ET

Trade Signal #233C Buy GBP/CHF at 2.3520 entered on November 15 reached the top of Wave 3 at the price of 2.3620. This would have been a good place to execute an interim exit of the trade, securing 85 pips of profit, pending re-entry of the buy trade at the bottom of Wave 4 following an A-B-C wave pattern and 50% to 62.9% retracement.

The target for the re-entered GBP/CHF trade is 2.3530

Thursday November 23 at 6:30 ET

We did a wrong wave count before on EUR/JPY, but won the trade nonetheless. EUR/JPY rose in a clear five wave set to 151.66, within the range which we expected it to reach. We had temporarily exited the short trade to wait for it to reach the top. We failed to issue a re-entry signal because we were distracted, but for those who recognised the top at 151.66 and took the short position, we believe the bottom of the trend has just been reached at 150.56, 110 pips lower.

It is now possible to enter a buy position at this price of 150.56, with a target of 151.75 or higher. The stop is at 150.19, making the risk 41 pips, and the minimum reward 115 pips. That makes the reward : risk ratio only 2.8, which is not sufficient to comply with our standard for live trades. But for research purposes we will label this Trade Signal #251 Buy EUR/JPY at 150.56

p.s. the lowest price reached was 150.32, 13 pips above the stop.
The latest high is 151.47 as of November 24 at 4:00 ET
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Previous trade signals and comments:

Monday November 20 at 4:00 ET

EUR/JPY broke out upwards past the five day trendline which was located at about 151.42 and appears to be headed for about 151.60 to 152.00 . It is better to exit now when it is retracing in Wave 4 here for a small loss and re-enter the sell at the top of the trend.

Exit Trade Signal #235 Sell EUR/JPY at 151.50
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Re-entry opportunity Trade Signal #235 Sell EUR/JPY at 151.37 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">Sunday November 19 at 22:00 ET

EUR/JPY has come up once again to the top of the 7 day channel and has completed a potential complete 5-wave upwards trend, assuming a failed fifth wave. This gives us a re-entry opportunity at about 151.42 for a low risk / high reward trade. The adjusted stop is 151.71

Re-entry opportunity on this trade:

Thursday November 9 12:30 ET
Trade Signal #235 Sell EUR/JPY at 151.37
Stop is 151.61
Target is 149.40
Risk is 26 pips
Reward is 199 pips
Reward:Risk ratio is 7.6 to 1

For research purposes only.

Thursday November 23 at 8:00 ET

Trade Signal #252 Buy GBP/JPY at 222.50

Stop is 221.95

Target is 225.00 to 226.00

Risk is 64 pips

Reward is minimum 241 pips

Reward : risk ratio is 3.8

For research purposes only,

This is a fifth wave up to the ultimate top, where a short trade is likely to be possible.

p.s. - the lowest price reached was 222.36, and the recent high is 223.92 as of November 24 at 4:15 ET
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Previous predictions and analysis:

Analysis of GBP/JPY for Tuesday November 21 at 5:45 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Tuesday November 21 at 5:45 ET

GBP/JPY reversed direction at 222.48 as we recognised at the time, and rose about 90 pips to 223.36, then corrected down to 222.75 - just 5 pips past the point where we predicted it would turn around, and which we stated would be a viable entry for a buy trade. It then rose 149 pips to a recent high of 224.27.

We now believe that it will reverse again and fall in a downwards Wave 4 A-B-C corrective wave, to about 223.50, and then reverse again and resume its climb to the ultimate high about 225.00 to 226.00.

The target of this corrective A-B-C wave is 223.50

The current price is 224.15
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Analysis of GBP/JPY for Friday November 17 at 5:30 ET

GBP/JPY did indeed rise as predicted from the reversal point at 222.48 to a recent high of 223.36 and is now engaged in a downwards A-B-C corrective wave.

The current price is 223.20.

The bottom of this wave at about 222.80 could be a viable low risk : high reward long trade with a target of 225.00 to 226.00. The safest trade will be the trade down from this ultimate high point, however.
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Analysis of GBP/JPY for Wednesday November 15 9:30 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message -->
GBP/JPY has fallen this morning to 222.48, which appears to be the low for this downwards trend which took it down 280 pips from its recent high of 225.28. It is now headed back up to about 225.00 again as GBP/USD rises strongly.

The current price is 222.68

Itme: Is the GBP/USD pair in a downward C wave targetting about 8650 or as you stated in your last post going up strongly. Thanks for all your hard work

item
I think that the end of GBPJPY wave will take us to 222.03 before it reverse

Thursday November 23 at 9:45 ET

USD/JPY will probably rise from the recent low of 116.00 to about 116.40 before falling to an ultimate low of about 115.40 .

According to my current wave hypothesis, that will be the bottom end of the first impulse wave downwards of a new downwards trend, and also the beginning of a relatively small A-B-C upwards corrective wave.

The bottom of Wave 1, wherever it is, will be the next low risk / high reward trade opportunity, trading Wave 2 upwards to about 118.20, first of all up in the A segment, then down in the B segment, then up again in the C segment.

p.s. - USD/JPY rose from the recent low of 116.00 to 116.47 before falling to an interim low of about 115.64 as of November 24 at 4:30 ET .

Thursday November 23 at 10:45 ET

My most recent analysis of AUD/USD confirms my previous analysis. AUD/USD is heading up to an ultimate high of .7780 to .7800

It was incorrect for us to have exited our long AUD/USD trade at .7736 to make only 46 pips of profit. We sacrificed at least 44 pips of profit, and halved the rate of return on our trade by doing so. We were obviously not of a normal state of mind when we entered our trades yesterday.

p.s. - as of November 24 at 4:30 ET AUD/USD has risen to an interim high of .7776, and has only formed a 1-2-3 wave pattern of an expected 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave pattern. The most recent prediction for an ultimate high is .7794

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Previous analysis of AUD/USD:

Re-enter Trade Signal #244 Buy AUD/USD at .7686 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Tuesday November 21 at 8:00 ET

I wasn't watching it at the time, but AUD/USD descended as predicted after our temporary exit signal at .7702 and fell 16 pips to .7686 at 3:20 ET this morning, comprising a 38.2% retracement exactly, and forming an obvious A-B-C pattern. It also met our exact high probability reversal number at this value. We should therefore have re-entered a long trade at .7702, and be holding for our target at about .7725 to .7800, and most likely .7800.

Thursday November 23 at 1:15 ET

CAD/JPY continued to fall after we entered our buy trade yesterday. ( Trade Signal #228A Buy CAD/JPY at 102.97 ). We were Elliott Wave blind yesterday it seems - very poor at evaluating the wave counts. ) The price subsequently fell to 101.61 this afternoon.

Various aspects of our system lead us to believe that the price of 101.61 is the bottom of the trend 456 pip downtrend that began on October 9.

Trade Signal #228B Buy CAD/JPY at 101.64

The stop is 101.29

Target #1 is 106.10
Target #2 is 106.70

Risk is 45 pips

Reward is 436 / 496 pips

Reward : Risk Ratio is 9.7 / 11.0

For research purposes only.
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Previous comments and trade signal:

Adjust stop Trade Signal #228A Buy CAD/JPY at 102.97 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Wednesday November 22 at 6:45 ET

The most likely reversal point for CAD/JPY is 102.36. Therefore the stop on our long trade should be adjusted to 101.98

For those not long CAD/JPY already, 102.36 is a low risk / high reward trade opportunity (risk is 48 pips), with far off targets:

Target #1 is 106.10
Target #2 is 106.70

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Friday November 17 at 20:00 ET

When we entered a buy trade on CAD/JPY the conditions looked favorable. However, it turned out that the wave count was incorrect, since there seems to be an extended five wave set downwards connected to the big move in the market this morning. The next cluster of high probability reversal points is at 102.35 to 103.45. The recent low is 103.52, slightly short of our stop at 103.48. This means that we will need to adjust the stop to 102.19

hi itme, what is your analysis for EURUSD?

EUR/USD prediction for Thursday November 23 at 15:00 ET

Our last prediction of November 21, two days ago, was based on an Elliott Wave hypothesis that was incorrect. The price declined to within 5 pips of our bottom at 1.2790, but then proceeded far past our target which was 1.2876, forming what looks like an incomplete 1-2-3 wave set which needs to become a complete 1-2-3-4-5 wave set by rising one more time.

The recent high is 1.2974, almost 100 pips higher than our upside target, and this point forms a new recent high, showing a new upwards impulse wave is underway. Our trade shorting EUR/USD at 1.2876 was obviously stopped out.

Since rising 179 pips in a larger Wave 3 upwards to its recent high, EUR/USD has fallen 35 pips to a recent low of 1.2939 and traced out a potentially complete A-B-C correction pattern.

The last or fifth wave upwards of this upwards Wave 3 should extent to at least 1.2984. However it is more likely to reach 1.2994, 1.3010, or 1.3030.

We will monitor the Elliott Wave patterns and try to discern the ultimate high of this fifth wave of the larger Third Wave up. This point will be an excellent low risk : high reward opportunity to sell EUR/USD according to our system while it traces out a larger Fourth Wave pattern down.

If the final wave reaches 1.3030, which we believe it will, then the fifth wave of the Third Wave will have travelled 91 pips, which is a typical travel for a fifth wave on EUR/USD.

The larger downwards Fourth Wave should descend to between 1.2770 and 1.2600, depending on world events, macro-economic news, and market sentiment. It will trace out a complex A-B-C wave pattern in all likelihood.

Authority opinion: John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst with DailyFX,who possesses "proprietary volume data", says: "The drop in expected market action is not far-fetched though as fundamental indicators are in short supply this week, and the number of key releases in the previous period failed to seriously move the market. Looking to the vols indicators, the drop in the long-term read suggests the recent pick up in price action will not evolve into a trend. Furthermore, history shows a swing lower in the spread usually results in a market turn, both calling for 1.30 resistance to hold."

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strateg...240031933.html

p.s. - EUR/USD did indeed rise from the recent low of 1.2939 and rose strongly to an interim high of 1.3086, quite a bit higher than our projected targets of 1.2994, 1.3010, or 1.3030. This is as of Friday November 24 at 4:45 ET.

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Previous prediction:

EUR/USD prediction Tuesday November 21 at 4:00 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Tuesday November 21 at 4:00 ET

Our prediction for EUR/USD is that it will fall to about 1.2790 and then rise to about 1.2876. If it does as predicted, then a short trade down from 1.2876 will be the safest and most advantageous strategy.

The current price is 1.2820

p.s. - EUR/USD fell to 1.2795 at 9:00 ET November 21, then rose abruptly

very interesting itme!!!

i currently trade wolfe waves, which i am told is basically a bastard child of one part of elliot wave theory

from a wolfe wave standpoint, i also arrived at the same potential top for EURUSD of 1.3000 and a probable bottom of 1.2600 (which depends on how long it takes to get there)

interestingly enough, wolfe wave analysis uses only trend lines and no fib calculations.

i took a look at the elliotwave website and read some lessons plans. i am very interested in this stuff and ordered a book on elliot waves from amazon.

take a look at the pic below. i had to zip it because it is too big to upload otherwise.

Itme,

your hard work and desire to help others is admirable. As I'm very new to EW, it'd help to understand the wave count better if you could post charts from time to time if it's OK with you. I know you're probably very busy doing this, so I'll understand if you can't.

Thank you.

Krkvak

HI Krkvak,

Happy Thanksgiving to you, and all other living creatures, including turkeys!

I would love to post some EW numbered charts, but I barely even have them. My current charts are totally marked up with all kinds of esoteric data that only I could decipher, with only the odd number thrown in.

Also, I'm so short of time keeping up with this market with so many pairs, on so many time frames, all moving continuously and offering key opportunity doorways to wealth and mastery, that the posting of charts has been impossible to keep up with.

It takes quite a while to get a numbered chart all ready and presentable. Also, it's misleading to offer just one chart, because to get the count right you have to study the 30 year, 10 year, 6 month, one month, and 5 day perspective. So an accurate wave count is a massive undertaking. Many people don't seem to realise this, and approach EW theory in a cavalier fashion, as if it was an indicator that just crossed a line or reached a key value. Far from it. It's more like doing a complete personality profile of a human being, with many factors involved.

On a positive note, my new compluter and monitor layout and new systems of analysis, monitoring and tracking should lighten my burden and greatly increase my accuracy of analysis.

I looked at the Wolfe Wave thread, and see why it works sometimes. It is exploiting one aspect of Elliott Wave theory. If you expand your model, then you will be able to understand when it will work, and even why. It is actually very clever.

Question for you: can you make any sense of the Elliott Wave descriptions that I offer in my predictions?

Thursday November 23 at 20:45 ET

This is just a note to verify that USD/JPY just rose to 116.47, and may even climb a little higher. If it does as we expect, it will reverse about here and decline to an ultimate low of about 115.40.

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Prediction from earlier today:

USD/JPY prediction for Thursday November 23 at 9:45 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Thursday November 23 at 9:45 ET

USD/JPY will probably rise from the recent low of 116.00 to about 116.40 before falling to an ultimate low of about 115.40 .

According to my current wave hypothesis, that will be the bottom end of the first impulse wave downwards of a new downwards trend, and also the beginning of a relatively small A-B-C upwards corrective wave.

The bottom of Wave 1, wherever it is, will be the next low risk / high reward trade opportunity, trading Wave 2 upwards to about 118.20, first of all up in the A segment, then down in the B segment, then up again in the C segment.