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15 minute opening range Forex

  • #81
  • Edited 11:29am Jun 28, 2023 11:14am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks. Yes you’re right. I never used the Fib tool, still needs some practice. Have you tested just using the center of the opening range as your reversal entry point. If you plot/draw the Fib using the high/low of that defined range, the 50 level should essentially be the same. Not sure about SL/TP levels yet.
Yes, thE 50% mark if price reaches it shows good volume. It's just that your risk to reward decreases.

If the range is 1 0.5 0 and direction is 1 to 0 and entry is .5, then your risk would be 1 to .5 and rr is 1 to 1 atleast.

Stop loss should be at 1 and tp atleast at 0. I find any rr less that 1 to 1 to be a waste. But thats just me.

You can get away with .3 as entrence and .9 as tp. Or .6 as entry and 0.1 as tp. Its a nice 1 to 2.

But with the reversal of the 15 orb, 1 to 2 is the norm and you can reach a decent tp for more than that.

I believe in playing the odds. So higher rr even if your win rate is low will always beat a higher winrate with low rr.

One way to augment for using the 50% is you use the highest open or close as your range for the breakout.

Ill give an example
1m
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YOiWDBBH
5m
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qnESfowk
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #82
  • Edited 3:18pm Jun 28, 2023 1:45pm | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting Sovy
{quote} Yes, thE 50% mark if price reaches it shows good volume. It's just that your risk to reward decreases. If the range is 1 0.5 0 and direction is 1 to 0 and entry is .5, then your risk would be 1 to .5 and rr is 1 to 1 atleast. Stop loss should be at 1 and tp atleast at 0. I find any rr less that 1 to 1 to be a waste. But thats just me. You can get away with .3 as entrence and .9 as tp. Or .6 as entry and 0.1 as tp. Its a nice 1 to 2. But with the reversal of the 15 orb, 1 to 2 is the norm and you can reach a decent tp for more than that....
Risk to Reward is meaningless if you don't assign a probability factor to it. That’s why I asked if you have done any proper backtesting for any of the instruments and opening ranges so you would also know about your win/loss rate for all the days/trades you executed it.
  • #83
  • Jun 28, 2023 6:53pm Jun 28, 2023 6:53pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Risk to Reward is meaningless if you don't assign a probability factor to it. That’s why I asked if you have done any proper backtesting for any of the instruments and opening ranges so you would also know about your win/loss rate for all the days/trades you executed it.
Yes, i already said ive backtested and forward tested the method.

You can do the same by retracing each pair you prefer and at what time with the method.

Atleast 25 trades via the exercise of mark doughlas. Or 100+ trades as the norm.

I really urge people to replicate it via backtest. So you can come up with a different or the same result
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #84
  • Edited 8:29pm Jun 28, 2023 7:49pm | Edited 8:29pm
Daily bias was short. I wondered if orb would challenge it. However it didn't. So i was unable to do a hedging trade to show to you guys.

Euro

8am tokyo open
8 to 815 range formed, saw a strong short. I was already worried. A fat bar normally will push down.

815 bar to 830 kept going down.

830 to 845 bar continued south. I am not one to force a trade; so, no trade for euro tokyo open.

Also note, tokyo open does not follow any daylight savings. It is forever consistent.

As for the other exchanges, at your own choice wether to follow the daylight savings or ignore it. I ignored it. Basis simply that the algo probably does not care. Or that the clearing houses simply does things as it normally does.

Ok here goes one. Uwu but was kind of forced. Atleast it'll make money as the daily bias will go it's way down later.

i feel we can further ammend the model into a tighter beast.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ai5MgXnS

Xau usd

8am +8gmt

First 15 min is the range

That we measure with our fib that goes both ways.

2nd bar pierces and closes down, meaning we're looking for a buy at the .3 to .5 level targetting atleast 1 and above.

Very good.
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  • #85
  • Jun 29, 2023 2:57pm Jun 29, 2023 2:57pm
Sovy. I backtested your strategy for EUR/USD and GBP/USD only for the London Open (08:00-08:15 as the range) but couldn't find it profitable. I tried using a 1:1 RR and 1:2 RR based on the 50% retracement level as my entry trigger. No trade after 08:45 was entered. I will check for a longer period like 3 months but it doesn't look that good.
  • #86
  • Jun 29, 2023 3:11pm Jun 29, 2023 3:11pm
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KXH9WFvj

Euro

+8 gmt

9pm to 10pm

915 formed range.
2nd bar pierce down below and closes
We form the fib.
3rd bar pierces but stops me out.
I enter again. 2.21 on 1 anx 3.74 rr on 1.5 standard diviation entering at .3.

Very nice
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #87
  • Edited 4:21pm Jun 29, 2023 3:12pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting lddd
Sovy. I backtested your strategy for EUR/USD and GBP/USD only for the London Open (08:00-08:15 as the range) but couldn't find it profitable. I tried using a 1:1 RR and 1:2 RR based on the 50% retracement level as my entry trigger. No trade after 08:45 was entered. I will check for a longer period like 3 months but it doesn't look that good.
Thats a good result.

if london is not profitable for you, there are other times to trade.

The past 20 london trades are indeed not perfect but it is still 13 r.
But lets say 1 to 1 only it is +1 to date. Thats why it's really recommended to do more than 1 r.

Also it is ok to have no trade. This is the discipline we all need to carry. More than half didn't give us signals but just 1 good trade can give you a 1 to 5

I used c trader for testing since it allowed me more than enough bars to check versus trading view free which limits me.

Im using the .3 diviation system so 0, .3, .6, .9, 1.2, 1.5, and 1.8. This gives me 5 r at most.

My favorite time to trade is 5pm or tokyo close and 1pm sydney close at +8gmt. I understand why most people don't trade these times since we've been taught not to trade the closing of the exchanges. But it simply works for me.
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  • #88
  • Jun 29, 2023 8:18pm Jun 29, 2023 8:18pm
Euro

+8gmt tokyo opening

8am to 815 forms the range
815 to 830 pierces and closes down below
830 to 845 shoots up.

Entery is at the measure of 8 to 815 candle
Order set buy stop at .3 stop loss at 0, tp at .9, 1.2, 1.5, and or 1.8 for a x2, x3, x4, or x5.

Entry is at done at 830 to 845

If you get stopped, just enter again at a lower level for more rr. Or at .3 still with target at 1.2 and up


Very good trade this tokyo session.

Why is my order pending? I have a daily bias in mind and it'll go down still later after our drive and then go up to it's main target. But until then, the 15m orb reversal is enough.

Visually, it looks like w check. As nike used to say, just do it.
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  • #89
  • Jun 30, 2023 3:15am Jun 30, 2023 3:15am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/04O9yEk4

Euro

+8 gmt

3 to 4pm

3 to 3 15 forms the 15m candle
3 15 to 330 forms the pierce to the upside.
330 to 345 dives to the south creating our profits.

Meausre the 15min range 3 to 3 15. Use the fib. Then enter on the 3rd candle formation.

.3 to .9 will give you a 1 to 2. The good trade gave us a 1 to 4 r.

Hope you took notice or this.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #90
  • Edited 11:22am Jul 1, 2023 9:26am | Edited 11:22am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} Thats a good result. if london is not profitable for you, there are other times to trade.
I don’t have time to trade other opening times and I also don’t want to trade more than 1 currency pair.

I‘ve now tested the last 6 months for both EUR/USD and GBP/USD but still didn’t get a profitable end result.

Quote
Im using the .3 diviation system so 0, .3, .6, .9, 1.2, 1.5, and 1.8. This gives me 5 r at most.

Don‘t understand.

Have a good weekend.
  • #91
  • Edited 11:34am Jul 1, 2023 10:28am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I don’t have have time to trade other opening times and I also don’t want to trade more than 1 currency pair. I‘ve now tested the last 6 months for both EUR/USD and GBP/USD but still didn’t get a profitable end result. {quote} Don‘t understand. Have a good weekend.
I can respect that. Maybe this isn't the method for you.

May back test
Latest to backwards
1. No trade
2. 1 to 5 r
3. 1 to 5 r
4. -1
5. 1 to 4 r
6. 1 to 5 r
7 -1
8. 1 to 2r
9. No trade
10 no trade
11. No trade
12. No trade
13. No trade
14. 1 to 5 r
15. 1 to 3 r
16. No trade
17. No trade
18. No trade
19. No trade
20. No trade

Mmm may wasn't so bad on euro open. Its just that there are days that simply didnt have trades.

My method is not a consistency method. There can be times that there are simply no signals.

12 r if you followed the rules and went for a 1 to 2 r. For may. This is not counting the possibility of a 1 to 5.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3jvI3Rif

try to study this diagram. It should assist on how the system kinda works. It's like a ring low and ring high pattern.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #92
  • Jul 1, 2023 11:03am Jul 1, 2023 11:03am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qpCOfKqH

Eth usd

Really nice tokyo open

Rules
15 mins forms the range
Next bar pierces north
We use the fib extension to the south and enter on the .3 standard diviation and target a 1 to 2 atleast.

Pretty neat. Full potential went 10 r.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #93
  • Jul 1, 2023 11:40am Jul 1, 2023 11:40am
Quoting Sovy
12 r if you followed the rules and went for a 1 to 2 r. For may. This is not counting the possibility of a 1 to 5.
Where did you place the stop loss? I used the full size of the range as my distance away from the entry and targeted a 2R. Only 1 order per day.

I get different results. Are you also sure to have used the same range on EUR/USD, so 08:00-08:15?
  • #94
  • Edited 11:58am Jul 1, 2023 11:47am | Edited 11:58am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Where did you place the stop loss? I used the full size of the range as my distance away from the entry and targeted a 2R. Only 1 order per day. I get different results. Are you also sure to have used the same range on EUR/USD, so 08:00-08:15?
I used the opening of london based on babypips which is 3 to 4 pm my time.

I used the range 0 to .3 as my risk and .3 to .9 as my tp for a 1 to 2. And i focused solely on euro in this example for the backtest. I used pepperstone as broker.

Here for example is a may 30 trade. Really really good
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VFb9kbBq

Thats a Potentially 18 r trade
https://www.tradingview.com/x/RtIiGPsF
May 29 also an 18 r trade
.may 25 was a 5r trade

Dont force a trade. And it can lose sometime. since the stop loss is really tight. And its reallt tempting to revenge trade.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #95
  • Jul 1, 2023 12:40pm Jul 1, 2023 12:40pm
London session
15 minites range is 9.7pips
price breaks the range low first and after moves upward.
Can't understand if you enter short or long when price retrace back to fibs levels 38.2/50/61.8% ?
Thanks

Forex market time zone converter
https://www.babypips.com/tools/forex-market-hours
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  • #96
  • Jul 1, 2023 1:23pm Jul 1, 2023 1:23pm
Quoting Sovy
I used the opening of london based on babypips which is 3 to 4 pm my time.
Okay. So the range is 03:00-03:15 PM for you (GMT+8). I use local london time. So it's 08:00-08:15 for me. Why do you say "to 4 pm" what does that mean?

Quoting Sovy
I used the range 0 to .3 as my risk and .3 to .9 as my tp for a 1 to 2.
I don't understand how you come up with these decimal numbers to describe your SL or TP.

Perhaps you can give another reasonable example in clear English that describes your entry and exit rules and illustrates them with an enlarged chart. It is very difficult to follow the whole thing and sometimes very confusing what you write.

thanks in advance.
  • #97
  • Jul 1, 2023 1:35pm Jul 1, 2023 1:35pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Okay. So the range is 03:00-03:15 PM for you (GMT+8). I use local london time. So it's 08:00-08:15 for me. Why do you say "to 4 pm" what does that mean? {quote} I don't understand how you come up with these decimal numbers to describe your SL or TP. Perhaps you can give another reasonable example in clear English that describes your entry and exit rules and illustrates them with an enlarged chart. It is very difficult to follow the whole thing and sometimes very confusing what you write. thanks in advance.
May I suggest you also post a clear chart like I did above with your entry/SL/TP so evrybody can go back and compare everything.
This is a mechanical example and results should be the same apart from chart broker differences.
Thanks
  • #98
  • Jul 1, 2023 5:28pm Jul 1, 2023 5:28pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} May I suggest you also post a clear chart like I did above with your entry/SL/TP so evrybody can go back and compare everything. This is a mechanical example and results should be the same apart from chart broker differences. Thanks
Well, what i've tested is the following. Here's a winning example for last Friday.

30/06/23 - EUR/USD M15

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Chart example shows:

1) The first 15 minutes range after the London Open
2) Price breaks the high of the range
3) Sell at the mid point of the range (The 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level)

Stop Loss = 1R (size of the range as distance away from the entry).
Target = 2R (double the risked).*

Buy entry:

- Wait for the range to form 15 minutes after the open
- Wait for price to break the low of the range
- Wait for price to reverse back to the mid point of the range
- BUY

Sell entry:

- Wait for the range to form 15 minutes after the open
- Wait for price to break the high of the range
- Wait for price to reverse back to the mid point of the range
- SELL

No buy/sell order if price didn't reverse back to the mid point (the entry trigger) of the range after 45 minutes had passed.

Hope that makes sense.

Like said, I tested the strategy exactly according to these criteria and i couldn't find it to be profitable. I've tested EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the last 6 months, current year. Feel free to proof me wrong
  • #99
  • Jul 1, 2023 6:27pm Jul 1, 2023 6:27pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, what i've tested is the following. Here's a winning example for last Friday. 30/06/23 - EUR/USD M15 {image} Chart example shows: 1) The first 15 minutes range after the London Open 2) Price breaks the high of the range 3) Sell at the mid point of the range (The 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level) Stop Loss = 1R (size of the range as distance away from the entry). Target = 2R (double the risked).* Buy entry: - Wait for the range to form 15 minutes after the open - Wait for price to break the low of the range - Wait for price to reverse...
Very good explanation.
At the bearish candle at point 3 in your chart why not buying instead of selling?
Maybe in this way the backtesting could be profitable.
Cheers
  • #100
  • Jul 1, 2023 8:12pm Jul 1, 2023 8:12pm
Quoting Merka
London session 15 minites range is 9.7pips price breaks the range low first and after moves upward. Can't understand if you enter short or long when price retrace back to fibs levels 38.2/50/61.8% ? Thanks Forex market time zone converter https://www.babypips.com/tools/forex-market-hours {image} {image} {image}
Helo,

1st 15 min bar from open or close is the range.

Use a fib that goes both ways, either one that does .5 diviatuons or .3. I use .3

Thats like -3, -2.5, -2, - 1.5, -1, -.5, 0, .5, 1, ... 2.5 or -1.5, -1.2,.., 1.8.

You can use this once the 1st range forms.

2nd 15 min bar either breaks high or low of the range. If high, then we short. If low then we long.

3rd 15 min bar is the trigger bar. This is the bar that triggers your order.

Enter thru the 1st 1/3 or 1/2. Then target atleast 1 to 2 r.

Thats it. That is the method.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
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