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  • #110,061
  • Jun 28, 2023 3:40am Jun 28, 2023 3:40am
Quoting gatorinla
Looking for the option 1.09/1.0910 bounce. Getting down there looks hard to do. Getting below 0917 looks hard. {image}
The q is ending. + 0917 close yesterday was bullish. But below it may not be. The option is below 0917 and 0956. The close being bullish yesterday leaves me that. But reaching the option area. Then taking -1.0900 etc is the opposite. The last Q 0835, year 0700. With 2 days left in this Q, mid year. This is a place things can change if it looses support, and that bounce dont occur. I think pa is bullish. Loosing support after falling below 0956 0917 0901 0835 not so bullish. I want to see bulls recover back above 0957 after the option area is hit. There is still enough time to blow up the bull path. With 2.5 days to go.

Since it is bullish, the option level is harder to reach. That's the dilemma. That's my skepticism on shorts. Its also where the fear of the option not being hit comes from. Large options under key bull supports. On a normal day I dont think those would be hit. But they are large, at the Q ending.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,062
  • Jun 28, 2023 4:46am Jun 28, 2023 4:46am
I'm adding short again, but I'm looking at the longer term. Accumulating shorts,
As long as EU stay below monthly trend line.
DXY looks to me like its heading for a break out up
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #110,063
  • Edited 5:36am Jun 28, 2023 5:25am | Edited 5:36am
Quoting axecap
I'm adding short again, but I'm looking at the longer term. Accumulating shorts, As long as EU stay below monthly trend line. DXY looks to me like its heading for a break out up
You have to trade what you see. This month 1013 can be R to me. A new month starts next week, 1.1013 will change. ATM 1.1186 has my vote. Week wise 0935.2 may separate bull bear. Day 1.0901x.
London fix settled above 0935.2, and day 1.09001.
Not above the month yet. But the month will change in 2.5 days.
One h before L-fix options expire. That may bring 1.0900/1.0910. The hour after, may bring 1.0949+ or 1.0956. Or at least it will not be a surprise.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,064
  • Jun 28, 2023 5:39am Jun 28, 2023 5:39am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You have to trade what you see. This month 1013 can be R to me. A new month starts next week, 1.1013 will change. ATM 1.1186 has my vote. Week wise 0935.2 may separate bull bear. Day 1.0901x. London fix settled above 0935.2, and day 1.09001. Not above the month yet. But the month will change in 2.5 days. One h before L-fix options expire. That may bring 1.0900/1.0910. The hour after, may bring 1.0949+ or 1.0956. Or at least it will not be a surprise.
If L fix ends up below 1.0901. That could stop a bounce. This is what bears want. Bears dont want L fix above 1.0956+.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,065
  • Jun 28, 2023 5:46am Jun 28, 2023 5:46am
Options 1.0900/1.0910 2.6 billion. This is the only reason, I have a short. The large option. I think pa is bullish.
4.9 billion 1.0845/1.0910. I plan on buying and close short. 1.0917 is often a support area. Its above The upper edge of the large option.
Since closing above 0956.. PA has not passed the week 1.0935.
The option is large. But looking at pa alone. I dont have a lot of faith in the option draw. I'm just trading it blindly. The 12h closed below 0956. Even that dont give me enthusiasm about the option.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,066
  • Jun 28, 2023 6:00am Jun 28, 2023 6:00am
Quoting axecap
I'm adding short again, but I'm looking at the longer term. Accumulating shorts, As long as EU stay below monthly trend line. DXY looks to me like its heading for a break out up
What's the upper level of the tl?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,067
  • Jun 28, 2023 8:37am Jun 28, 2023 8:37am
Pa is back above 0935.. Options may have missed the boat. 0949 should attract. +0956 is bullish. 25 min to go.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,068
  • Jun 28, 2023 8:48am Jun 28, 2023 8:48am
With 12 min to go. I closed short, and took a long. PA dont look like it can take 0917 in time to make 0900/0910 options.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,069
  • Jun 28, 2023 8:51am Jun 28, 2023 8:51am
Quoting gatorinla
With 12 min to go. I closed short, and took a long. PA dont look like it can take 0917 in time to make 0900/0910 options.
It never made 0917 atm.. atm low 0923.. adr would be 0994. it still has 9 min, but 0917 is likely Bad Azzz. If so, it should pick up the attraction to 0949. The horse leaves the barn above 0956
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,070
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:02am Jun 28, 2023 9:02am
Weird shit.. Miss options then close under 0935.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,071
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:09am Jun 28, 2023 9:09am
FX options wrap - Flashing FX warning signals

https://www.tradingview.com/news/reu...rning-signals/
....
EUR/USD still stuck within a massive 15 billion euros of soon-to-expire options between 1.09-1.1000. However, implied volatility has seen light demand and the volatility premium for EUR puts over calls on 1-month risk reversals has recently grown to 0.375 from 0.1, which flags downside risks to spot. EUR/SEK options on high alert for Riksbank Thursday.
  • #110,072
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:11am Jun 28, 2023 9:11am
I would of bet both balls it would of already run back to 0948.9. Especially when it missed 0900/0910. ATM is below 0956 and 0948.9. The old level at 0917 may be tested. Bulls dont want to lose it.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,073
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:18am Jun 28, 2023 9:18am
0948.9 followed by +0956 is what I thought.. Losing 0917 is not part of my bull plan. My bull plan needs pa back above 0949 and 0956
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,074
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:23am Jun 28, 2023 9:23am
Quoting gatorinla
Weird shit.. Miss options then close under 0935.
This was very weird. to be back below 0935. Making a lower low after also. A bounce to 0948.9 is normal. That has yet to happen also. PA is weird. Probably because of the quarter with large players.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,075
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:30am Jun 28, 2023 9:30am
When in doubt, I get out.. I closed before stops were hit
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,076
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:33am Jun 28, 2023 9:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The q is ending. + 0917 close yesterday was bullish. But below it may not be. The option is below 0917 and 0956. The close being bullish yesterday leaves me that. But reaching the option area. Then taking -1.0900 etc is the opposite. The last Q 0835, year 0700. With 2 days left in this Q, mid year. This is a place things can change if it looses support, and that bounce dont occur. I think pa is bullish. Loosing support after falling below 0956 0917 0901 0835 not so bullish. I want to see bulls recover back above 0957 after the option area...
What's happening is not normal day pa. In caution of large bears are positioning the Q close. I abandoned ship.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,077
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:54am Jun 28, 2023 9:54am
I think pa is bullish. With pa above, and fading the year close (0700) and last quarter close (0835). There is 2.25 days left in this quarter. That's enough time to reach -1.0835 Q, or YC -1.0700. Since those are what I'm using for an anchor for direction. Losing 1.0917, 0935, and 0901. Is not in the fading plan. Knowing when your wrong early can save money. You dont want to be a deer in the headlight. A fake sense of security was the miss of the options. That gave bulls more enthusiasm. To me when it didnt return to 1.0948.9 a normal event that happens a high % each day. Plus closing the 1h below 1.0935 week balance. I had to look to escape. The day balance at 1.0901.x.. next.. It may not stop it since 0917 didnt.
That leads me to think 0835, and/or 1.0700 may be coming.. all is not lost.. We can short it. 1.0901 may develop R
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,078
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:08am Jun 28, 2023 10:08am
On the sideline personally. 1.0835 may support. 1.07 may support. 1.0898/1.0901 0917 0935 0956 can be s/r depending on the side.
When pa is back below 0898.. If may run down.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,079
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:19am Jun 28, 2023 10:19am
since it broke 0917.. it could resist.
An attraction to 0898, may bring it back below 0901
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,080
  • Jun 28, 2023 10:29am Jun 28, 2023 10:29am
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