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15 minute opening range Forex

  • #61
  • Jun 27, 2023 10:49am Jun 27, 2023 10:49am
Quoting Sovy
The main principle is price fakes and goes a different way.
Yes, I understand the strategy behind it, hence my question whether you have done a longer backtest for one of your traded instruments and market openings.
  • #62
  • Jun 27, 2023 12:27pm Jun 27, 2023 12:27pm
Quoting charts247
{quote} From experience, a small opening range breakout (less than average size) will persist in the direction of the break, but you must be aware of the wave structure count which means are we in the middle of a trend or at the end when a reversal is likely to happen. A large opening range breakout ( Greater than average) will reverse most times than not. This also depends on the current state of the market i.e. Momentum High or Momentum low or just at the beginning of a new impulse after a pullback. If you are in a trend and the price has already...
This is noted. I just found for the past 200 plus trades that if a 1 hour range occurs, it mostly doesnt reverse. I'll compare if having an average versus just the stretch works out.

Quoting lddd
{quote} You wrote that you use the first 15 Minutes as your opening range, but 9-10 are 60 Minutes for me, not 15. That's why i asked if you could be more precise in your wording as i didn't make sense to me. It's a bit confusing. NY Open is 8:00 am (local time in New York) not 09:00 am. London Open is 08:00 am (local time in the UK) not 09:00 am. It would be nice if you could use uniform formulations for your times here, makes it easier for anyone trying to follow up with your strategy. Thanks and regards.

The range is 15 minutes. The 1 hour is the time frame before you say, ok, nothing to trade here.

Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes, I understand the strategy behind it, hence my question whether you have done a longer backtest for one of your traded instruments and market openings.
Yes. And forward tested. The circumstances in the past may not be the same. But more than 100 trades support the idea of reversals.

Ive also done tests of 200+ for straight out breakouts only. Works really well if you do the 1 hour range versus the 15 minutes. I only focus on the 15 since it reverses more often. And works really well with the standard fib.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #63
  • Jun 27, 2023 2:30pm Jun 27, 2023 2:30pm
Quoting Sovy
The range is 15 minutes. The 1 hour is the time frame before you say, ok, nothing to trade here.
Okay, understand. What are you then doing in the hour before the Open, what are you waiting for to see?
  • #64
  • Edited 7:12pm Jun 27, 2023 7:02pm | Edited 7:12pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Okay, understand. What are you then doing in the hour before the Open, what are you waiting for to see?
Playing with my son. Doing errands. Playing diablo 4. Or eating or exercising.

I dont want to imprint a bias. Because the market in the next 3 15 bars or 9 5 min bars will contain all of my concentration. I don't want to be unfocused. So it's best to relax and not waste focus.

I am tempted to trade if i see a model or pattern. Even a simple pin bar, which i really love. So i avoid the charts at all costs.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #65
  • Jun 27, 2023 10:33pm Jun 27, 2023 10:33pm
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7MAhc4QL

Euro +8gmt 8 am to 9am

1. 15 min range
2. Pierce at north (2nd 15 min bar)
3. Enter on fib .33/.38 or red bar of volume profile.
4. Target 1 or 1.5 or more depending on your risk.

You can trail the stop loss every .5 diviation or just chill.

Good trade.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #66
  • Jun 27, 2023 11:01pm Jun 27, 2023 11:01pm
So lets assume we have a 15 minute range. And the 4th 5 minute candle doesnt break the bottom but comes back up to the 38% fib from the bottom. Would that be a buy. Ir is it necessary for a piercing of the low of the 15 minute range ? Obviously vice versa for a buy. .
Thanks
  • #67
  • Jun 27, 2023 11:14pm Jun 27, 2023 11:14pm
Quoting sheppy
So lets assume we have a 15 minute range. And the 4th 5 minute candle doesnt break the bottom but comes back up to the 38% fib from the bottom. Would that be a buy. Ir is it necessary for a piercing of the low of the 15 minute range ? Obviously vice versa for a buy. . Thanks
it could work but, i normally put the trade after the second bar closes.

If you check the structure and feel it could work. Go else, its ok to be prudent because you have many chances throughout the day.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #68
  • Jun 28, 2023 4:20am Jun 28, 2023 4:20am
EUR/USD Wed, 28/06/23

Hey Sovy. Let me know if my following trade example of your strategy is correct.

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Here we have the opening range from 08:00-08:15 (15 Minutes after london open). Price broke the high at would have reversed back to the 0.38 or 50.0 level of the Fib but only after some time passed. How long to wait until the reversal happens and prices reaches to the 0.38 or 50 level, before the order will become invalid and you remove it?
  • #69
  • Jun 28, 2023 4:56am Jun 28, 2023 4:56am
Quoting lddd
EUR/USD Wed, 28/06/23 Hey Sovy. Let me know if my following trade example of your strategy is correct. {image} Here we have the opening range from 08:00-08:15 (15 Minutes after london open). Price broke the high at would have reversed back to the 0.38 or 50.0 level of the Fib but only after some time passed. How long to wait until the reversal happens and prices reaches to the 0.38 or 50 level, before the order will become invalid and you remove it?
First 15 mins is the range.
Next 15 mins is the pierce.
3rd 15 mins is the correct direction after fakeout.

Ideally from opening to entry at the order is made before 45 minutes passes by. When an hour passes by, the computation changes. It becomes a 1h range breakout. So instead of a reversal. You'll be looking for a normal breakout of the 1h range not 15mins.

Here is euro at tokyo closing which is +8gmt 5 pm to 6pm
Range formed at 5 15. 530 bar pierced up. I measured the fib of 5 15 and then entered at .38 or .33 short. My target is 1.5 standard deviations.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gTCOuk35

For your euro time, you had 2 weird opportunities, a buy from the 3rd 15 min and a sell on the 4th. Either way, based on our rules, you would have made atleast 1.7r on each trade for a .3 to 1 standard diviation trade.
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #70
  • Jun 28, 2023 5:27am Jun 28, 2023 5:27am
Quoting Sovy
First 15 mins is the range. Next 15 mins is the pierce. 3rd 15 mins is the correct direction after fakeout. Ideally from opening to entry at the order is made before 45 minutes passes by.
Okay. So the entry is only valid if price will reverse to the Fib level for either the 08:15 or 08:30 M15 candle that follows after the range (08:00 M15). After that it's 08:45 and 45 Minutes have passed. So no trade anymore.

In my example for today, the 08:30 M15 candle was still bullish and didn't reverse to either the Fib 0.38 or 50 level. So I would not have had a trade here today and removed my order again by 08:45 (UK time).

Quoting Sovy
Here is euro at tokyo closing which is +8gmt 5 pm to 6pm Range formed
Why on earth would you trade EUR/USD at the Tokyo Close rather than the London Open? Tokyo closes 1 hour after the London Open at 09:00 am (UK time). London Open is what makes volume increase, not a closing Market in Asia?

It's a bit confusing. It would be great if you could stick to one instrument like EUR/USD and post charts for the next month trading it every morning at the London Open so we will then find out if that can be profitable or not. All these different markets and opens, what is the reason for it? So the strategy is not profitable doing it for only one instrument and one market open?
  • #71
  • Edited 6:00am Jun 28, 2023 5:42am | Edited 6:00am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Okay. So the entry is only valid if price will reverse to the Fib level for either the 08:15 or 08:30 M15 candle that follows after the range (08:00 M15). After that it's 08:45 and 45 Minutes have passed. So no trade anymore. In my example for today, the 08:30 M15 candle was still bullish and didn't reverse to either the Fib 0.38 or 50 level. So I would not have had a trade here today and removed my order again by 08:45 (UK time). {quote} Why on earth would you trade EUR/USD at the Tokyo Close rather than the London Open? Tokyo closes 1...
I advise you to view at either 5 min or 1 mi then use vertical lines to divide the every 15 mins. So it'll be easier to see.

Here is a vid i made just for you.

At +8gmt eur usd london time zone. London open

Why i took tokyo close? Because i shared it as one of the times you can trade.

Inserted Video


Here.

Measure 15 min range. 2nd range went up then down piercing the below. On 3rd 15 mins it went up at the .38. If you would have profited here.

Eur usd.

Ok, everyone please question the idea that you shouldn't trade the close of an exchange.

Here is my idol on it.
Inserted Video


P.s. if you want, i can teach you thru discord, for a price which is your attention for atleast 15 mins. just send me a dm and I'll send you my discord so you can dm me and we can do a short call.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #72
  • Jun 28, 2023 6:05am Jun 28, 2023 6:05am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} I advise you to view at either 5 min or 1 mi then use vertical lines to divide the every 15 mins. So it'll be easier to see. Here is a vid i made just for you. At +8gmt eur usd london time zone. London open Why i took tokyo close? Because i shared it as one of the times you can trade. https://youtu.be/l-lWajeDW4Y Here. Measure 15 min range. 2nd range went up then down piercing the below. On 3rd 15 mins it went up at the .38. If you would have profited here. Eur usd.
Thank you but i can hardly see anything on your phone pictures or videos. Please make it bigger. As a serious trader you should use a desktop computer and not your phone to look or even think about trading something.

You picked an winning example but MY example for EUR/USD concentrates on the 15 Minutes after the London Open. I am not interested in trading the Tokyo Close.

Any reversal trade for EUR/USD following your strategy therefor would have been going short at 0.38 or 0.50.

Here is another EUR/USD chart with some markings.
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  • #73
  • Jun 28, 2023 6:16am Jun 28, 2023 6:16am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thank you but i can hardly see anything on your phone pictures or videos. Please make it bigger. As a serious trader you should use a desktop computer and not your phone to look or even think about trading something. You picked an winning example but MY example for EUR/USD concentrates on the 15 Minutes after the London Open. I am not interested in trading the Tokyo Close. Any reversal trade for EUR/USD following your strategy therefor would have been going short at 0.38 or 0.50. Here is another EUR/USD chart with some markings. {image}

I dont know what time you chose but that winning trade is on london open. Thats not tokyo open or close. I also am willing to discord with you to explain how to do it for the price of your attention for atleast 15 mins.

The things i do. You can do with the phone.

Here is an indicator you can use in trading view. It's free.

Fx market sessions by boitoki

At default. You would have all sessions on. Turn off everything except london.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/B7dzzlZy

Again. London open. London opens at 4pm plus 8 gmt.

4 to 4 15 forms the range. 4 15 to 430 pierces and closes down below. 430 to 445 goes up.

Using your fib by measuring the 4 15 candle when the 430 candle closed should have shown you your entry. 3rd candle will go up, probably

Ok, one issue i see is meausuring past 3 15 min candles. Or 9 5 min candles or 45 1 minute candles.

remember, the range is 15 minutes only. This 15 minute candle can be a one 15 minute bar. Three 5 minute bar or 15 1 minute bars. This is what we measure with the fib.

The next one is the one that either pierces the high or low of the range. If it closes above then we short. If it closes below, then we sell.

The 3rd bar is our entry bar, meaning it's the one that will hit the buy stop or buy limit or you can enter on market.

If you dont get triggered by the 3rd bar, it is safe to not trade at all. It is ok. You can trade next time.
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #74
  • Jun 28, 2023 7:55am Jun 28, 2023 7:55am
Quoting Sovy
You can do with the phone. Here is an indicator you can use in trading view. It's free. Fx market sessions by boitoki At default. You would have all sessions on.
This indicator is NOT showing the correct session times. It doesn't seem to automatically adjust for daylight saving time. We are in summer time. Maybe that's the problem you got.

Incorrect:
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Correct:
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My trade example posted earlier marks the correct session. The first 15 Minutes after the London Open (the big green bull candle). Any reversal trade from there would have been waiting for a sell entry because the range got broken at the high first, so you wait for a second, third, candle or what ever time you wait fro price to come back into the range and then trade to the opposite direction of its initial break.

You want to teach me?
  • #75
  • Jun 28, 2023 8:17am Jun 28, 2023 8:17am
Quoting lddd
{quote} This indicator is NOT showing the correct session times. It doesn't seem to automatically adjust for daylight saving time. We are in summer time. Maybe that's the problem you got. Incorrect: {image} Correct: {image} My trade example posted earlier marks the correct session. The first 15 Minutes after the London Open (the big green bull candle). Any reversal trade from there would have been waiting for a sell entry because the range got broken at the high first, so you wait for a second, third, candle or what ever time you wait fro price...
Yes. I did say im willing to teach you if you're willing to pay attention for atleast 15 mins.

Supposing you're right and say 3pm if we consider daylight savings. Then price doesnt trigger a sell unfortunately. So no trade.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yxOCX7lr

So in this case, i would simply wait for another session
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #76
  • Jun 28, 2023 8:20am Jun 28, 2023 8:20am
Here's one more example on EUR/USD for today (MT4 + standard Fibonacci Indicator used for the range).

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  • #77
  • Jun 28, 2023 8:23am Jun 28, 2023 8:23am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} Yes. I did say im willing to teach you if you're willing to pay attention for atleast 15 mins. Supposing you're right and say 3pm if we consider daylight savings. Then price doesnt trigger a sell unfortunately. So no trade. https://www.tradingview.com/x/yxOCX7lr So in this case, i would simply wait for another session
  • #78
  • Jun 28, 2023 8:34am Jun 28, 2023 8:34am
Quoting lddd
Here's one more example on EUR/USD for today (MT4 + standard Fibonacci Indicator used for the range). {image}
Based on that knowing it pierced up, you have to flip the fib where the extensions target the short. They in effect work as targets.

I found myself sometimes making a lot of errors because of this flipping the fib. So you can silply have a fib with .5 diviations. Like 2.5, 2, 1.5, 1, .5, 0, -.5, -1, -1.5 so whether you trace up down or down up, the distances will always be equal. It could also be .33 or .25 or 1s
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #79
  • Jun 28, 2023 9:09am Jun 28, 2023 9:09am
Euro 9pm +8gmt to 10 pm trade.

9 to 915 forms the range.
Price went up on the 2nd 15m bar
Then went down on the 3rd.

I saw an issue. What if the price does not return back to the orgin of the range? Where do you put your tp?

Putting a 0.9 and 0.8 may serve as possible targets. Lets say entry is .3 .3 to .9 is already 2x the reward.

Experiment on these to see what works for you.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hManAKIE
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #80
  • Jun 28, 2023 11:07am Jun 28, 2023 11:07am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} Based on that knowing it pierced up, you have to flip the fib where the extensions target the short. They in effect work as targets. I found myself sometimes making a lot of errors because of this flipping the fib. So you can silply have a fib with .5 diviations. Like 2.5, 2, 1.5, 1, .5, 0, -.5, -1, -1.5 so whether you trace up down or down up, the distances will always be equal. It could also be .33 or .25 or 1s
Thanks. Yes you’re right. I never used the Fib tool, still needs some practice.

Have you tested just using the center of the opening range as your reversal entry point. If you plot/draw the Fib using the high/low of that defined range, the 50 level should essentially be the same.

Not sure about SL/TP levels yet.
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