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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,721
  • May 21, 2007 2:40pm May 21, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting forexenator
Hi Cesar,

I have a question for you. I believe most of the GBP/JPY movements is due to carry traders coming in and out of the market, and this is of course due to the high interest rate on GBP/JPY, then why Gold/USD is going up for years now, in spite of the great interest rate when you short that pair?
I'm not familiar with the drivers behind Gold. Know it's one safe place to run away from risk, only.
  • #4,722
  • May 21, 2007 7:48pm May 21, 2007 7:48pm
Good info:

Yen Trades Near Record Low Versus Euro Before April BOJ Minutes
By David McIntyre and Kosuke Goto

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...uV8&refer=home
  • #4,723
  • May 22, 2007 12:25am May 22, 2007 12:25am
Quoting cesarnc
Good info:

Yen Trades Near Record Low Versus Euro Before April BOJ Minutes
By David McIntyre and Kosuke Goto

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...uV8&refer=home

From this article it looks like the ECB is going to raise rates while the BoJ is going to keep them level. This is carry trade positive right? Longterm implications being that the EJ will rise?
  • #4,724
  • May 22, 2007 1:06am May 22, 2007 1:06am
Some notational info for EurYen
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #4,725
  • May 22, 2007 3:10am May 22, 2007 3:10am
looks like every dip on GY is a good buying opportunity...still wonder when will it push forward...damn...this ugly range is a deja-vu from october last year.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,726
  • May 22, 2007 3:39am May 22, 2007 3:39am
Quoting gagiul
looks like every dip on GY is a good buying opportunity...still wonder when will it push forward...damn...this ugly range is a deja-vu from october last year.
And we all know what happened after that
up up up... Go guppy go!
  • #4,727
  • May 22, 2007 5:56am May 22, 2007 5:56am
This "164 barrier" is constant in the chatters. Increasing in intesity as days go by...

122 barrier reported in UJ...

GJ expected to follow suit, hopefully.

Just FYI

06:49 164 barrier in EUR/JPY been most impressive we've seen in quite some time..Usually all the "barrier" business is mostly talk but not in this instance
  • #4,728
  • May 22, 2007 6:33am May 22, 2007 6:33am
If these levels don't get broken soon, I'd expect a fairly sizeable unwind in carries followed by a reaffirmed upswing to the same levels.

There's just too much money to be made through volatility for this sideways trading to continue for too long before something gives.
  • #4,729
  • May 22, 2007 6:40am May 22, 2007 6:40am
Quoting nathbear

There's just too much money to be made through volatility for this sideways trading to continue for too long before something gives.
You gotta a point... But there has been several hours with poor change in the carries scenario, just a quick dip in UJ during the Asian session...

Market seems on hold, collecting interest as long as conditions stay stable: no harsh rumors, stocks sound and safe, China shaking but not spooking and all...
  • #4,730
  • May 22, 2007 7:06am May 22, 2007 7:06am
Quoting cesarnc
You gotta a point... But there has been several hours with poor change in the carries scenario, just a quick dip in UJ during the Asian session...

Market seems on hold, collecting interest as long as conditions stay stable: no harsh rumors, stocks sound and safe, China shaking but not spooking and all...
You're absolutely right, but that 'on hold' appearance hasn't just been for the last few hours... it extends right back through the past couple of weeks for GBP/JPY and even longer for the other yen crosses. Sure there have been a few dips that have been met with almost instantaneous buy support right back to the same levels it was at pre-dip, but for the most part the action has been sideways.

Honestly, I really want to short all three pairs right now but I don't want to swallow the huge negative swap rate for a long period of time if this period of inactivity continues to drag out. Instead, I continue to sell dips as my signals are triggered then close those trades for my combined couple hundred pips per run and then buy back into the carry trades on support. It has been quite a profitable period for me but I really do think that the longer this goes on, the less and less buy support we will see to combat the pressure to the downside and we could easily see a slide comparable to that which occurred in February. I'm not advising traders to avoid going long on these pairs at the moment because carry conditions are obviously so favourable, but I would suggest doing so with caution and with careful money management strategies in case you do manage to get caught in the almost inevitable avalanche that is building.
  • #4,731
  • May 22, 2007 7:16am May 22, 2007 7:16am
Quoting nathbear
You're absolutely right, but that 'on hold' appearance hasn't just been for the last few hours... it extends right back through the past couple of weeks for GBP/JPY and even longer for the other yen crosses. Sure there have been a few dips that have been met with almost instantaneous buy support right back to the same levels it was at pre-dip, but for the most part the action has been sideways.

Honestly, I really want to short all three pairs right now but I don't want to swallow the huge negative swap rate for a long period of time if this period of inactivity continues to drag out. Instead, I continue to sell dips as my signals are triggered then close those trades for my combined couple hundred pips per run and then buy back into the carry trades on support. It has been quite a profitable period for me but I really do think that the longer this goes on, the less and less buy support we will see to combat the pressure to the downside and we could easily see a slide comparable to that which occurred in February. I'm not advising traders to avoid going long on these pairs at the moment because carry conditions are obviously so favourable, but I would suggest doing so with caution and with careful money management strategies in case you do manage to get caught in the almost inevitable avalanche that is building.
You're right... But I'm long all yen pairs at Friday's bottom area, so safe here. In case of the avalanch I got sometime to vanish.

But as long as they don't fall, it is worth the waiting to see what those "big barries" hold for us.
  • #4,732
  • May 22, 2007 8:48am May 22, 2007 8:48am
I have so far
Long AUD/JPY => I close it cos it is to high to keep holding... A nice 2% increase to my coffer waiting.....

Long EUR/USD => I am now crying dun know if I should close the damn trade after i see the solid downtrend T_T

Long USD/CHF = cut my loss and carry on.......

Long USD/CAD => I am still adding position.... one reason => Oil

Long GBP/USD => GBP economy is still strong?

Long GBP/JPY => Strong vs weak ?
  • #4,733
  • May 22, 2007 9:37am May 22, 2007 9:37am
I was looking back all the way to 2002 on the USD/YEN chart and noticed
basically everytime this year, price takes a mojor hit. Sometimes 200 pips, sometimes 400-500 pips.


Is there any explanation on why May-June price takes a serious dip.

Right now, we have caustious/conservative buys now TP at 122.

However, we have quite a few Buylimits set with sells stops going down from 120s to 118s.


Any comments, answers or reference is greatly appreciated!
  • #4,734
  • May 22, 2007 10:20am May 22, 2007 10:20am
We are now aproaching 239.99 the daily high from 1-30. Been a long time since we have been this high.

Could show serious resistance, but if broken could see more upward movement to the 241 area.
  • #4,735
  • May 22, 2007 10:30am May 22, 2007 10:30am
The big 240 is imminent! will it break!
  • #4,736
  • May 22, 2007 10:32am May 22, 2007 10:32am
just opened a champaign
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,737
  • May 22, 2007 10:34am May 22, 2007 10:34am
Quoting el_duende
The big 240 is imminent! will it break!

240 has been broken

Nothing holding us back now till 241.33 1-24-07 daily high
  • #4,738
  • May 22, 2007 10:35am May 22, 2007 10:35am
Quoting yezbick
240 has been broken

Nothing holding us back now till 241.33 1-24-07 daily high
it depends on how much time it will stay there...I hope it wont fall like a rock back to 239.50. Hold Gozilla hold.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,739
  • May 22, 2007 10:36am May 22, 2007 10:36am


Patience rewards in those dreaded Yen pairs...

I'm off 3/4 position. left 1/4 for the ride...

Back to bottom fishing

still on EJ, UJ longs...
  • #4,740
  • May 22, 2007 10:39am May 22, 2007 10:39am
Just need UJ to fart a tomahawk to 122 and I can call it a week.
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