Wednesday November 22 at 6:45 ET
The most likely reversal point for CAD/JPY is 102.36. Therefore the stop on our long trade should be adjusted to 101.98
For those not long CAD/JPY already, 102.36 is a low risk / high reward trade opportunity (risk is 48 pips), with far off targets:
Target #1 is 106.10
Target #2 is 106.70
________________________________________________________
Previous comments and trade signal:
Friday November 17 at 20:00 ET
When we entered a buy trade on CAD/JPY the conditions looked favorable. However, it turned out that the wave count was incorrect, since there seems to be an extended five wave set downwards connected to the big move in the market this morning. The next cluster of high probability reversal points is at 102.35 to 103.45. The recent low is 103.52, slightly short of our stop at 103.48. This means that we will need to adjust the stop to 102.19
One of the lessons that can be garnered from this experience is that if one wants to avoid losing trades, one should assume an extended wave, particularly when the market is engaged in a strong move.
Furthermore, another way of reducing the risk of losing trades is to refuse to enter until the very last "probable reversal target" has been met.
__________________________________________________ _________
Friday November 17 at 10:00 ET
CAD/JPY seems to have completed its entire wave pattern and came to the precise most probable trend reversal price of 102.97, a reversal price which is confirmed on three time periods.
Trade Signal #228A Buy CAD/JPY at 102.97
Stop is 102.48
Target #1 is 106.10
Target #2 is 106.70
Risk is 59 pips
Reward is 303 / 363 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.1 /6.1 to 1
For research purposes only.
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CAD/JPY update for Thursday November 16 at 5:00 ET
As predicted earlier CAD/JPY declined further, reaching 103.07 so far, and is likely to fall further to 102.50 to 102.75 before a good low risk / high reward opportunity to buy it emerges.
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Comment on failed Trade Signal #228 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.85 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">The trade signal #228 buying CAD/JPY was based on an impossible wave count. We said at the time "In terms of Elliott Wave, this is estimated to be the third impulse wave of a large upwards fifth wave." The problem is that there had only been a 1-2-3-4-5 downwards wave at the time of the entry, which constitutes an A of an A-B-C downwards corrective wave. There was still an upwards B and a downwards C to go before we should have entered that buy trade. We identified the bottom of Wave A to the precise pip at 103.85, but didn't keep track of the Wave Pattern properly. The long trade which we entered was only the B wave which only went up 87 pips to 104.72. We should have exited the trade there and reversed.
The price has since fallen 137 pips to 103.35, and it is still possible for the price to fall a little more before the long trade entry price is reached.
__________________________________________
Tuesday November 8 at 00:45 ET
Trade Signal #228 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.85
Stop is 103.54
Target #1 is 105.70
Target #2 is 107.30
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 175 / 335 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.3 /8.4 to 1
For research purposes only.
In terms of Elliott Wave, this is estimated to be the third impulse wave of a large upwards fifth wave.
The most likely reversal point for CAD/JPY is 102.36. Therefore the stop on our long trade should be adjusted to 101.98
For those not long CAD/JPY already, 102.36 is a low risk / high reward trade opportunity (risk is 48 pips), with far off targets:
Target #1 is 106.10
Target #2 is 106.70
________________________________________________________
Previous comments and trade signal:
Friday November 17 at 20:00 ET
When we entered a buy trade on CAD/JPY the conditions looked favorable. However, it turned out that the wave count was incorrect, since there seems to be an extended five wave set downwards connected to the big move in the market this morning. The next cluster of high probability reversal points is at 102.35 to 103.45. The recent low is 103.52, slightly short of our stop at 103.48. This means that we will need to adjust the stop to 102.19
One of the lessons that can be garnered from this experience is that if one wants to avoid losing trades, one should assume an extended wave, particularly when the market is engaged in a strong move.
Furthermore, another way of reducing the risk of losing trades is to refuse to enter until the very last "probable reversal target" has been met.
__________________________________________________ _________
Friday November 17 at 10:00 ET
CAD/JPY seems to have completed its entire wave pattern and came to the precise most probable trend reversal price of 102.97, a reversal price which is confirmed on three time periods.
Trade Signal #228A Buy CAD/JPY at 102.97
Stop is 102.48
Target #1 is 106.10
Target #2 is 106.70
Risk is 59 pips
Reward is 303 / 363 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.1 /6.1 to 1
For research purposes only.
_________________________________________________
CAD/JPY update for Thursday November 16 at 5:00 ET
As predicted earlier CAD/JPY declined further, reaching 103.07 so far, and is likely to fall further to 102.50 to 102.75 before a good low risk / high reward opportunity to buy it emerges.
________________________________________________
Comment on failed Trade Signal #228 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.85 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">The trade signal #228 buying CAD/JPY was based on an impossible wave count. We said at the time "In terms of Elliott Wave, this is estimated to be the third impulse wave of a large upwards fifth wave." The problem is that there had only been a 1-2-3-4-5 downwards wave at the time of the entry, which constitutes an A of an A-B-C downwards corrective wave. There was still an upwards B and a downwards C to go before we should have entered that buy trade. We identified the bottom of Wave A to the precise pip at 103.85, but didn't keep track of the Wave Pattern properly. The long trade which we entered was only the B wave which only went up 87 pips to 104.72. We should have exited the trade there and reversed.
The price has since fallen 137 pips to 103.35, and it is still possible for the price to fall a little more before the long trade entry price is reached.
__________________________________________
Tuesday November 8 at 00:45 ET
Trade Signal #228 Buy CAD/JPY at 103.85
Stop is 103.54
Target #1 is 105.70
Target #2 is 107.30
Risk is 41 pips
Reward is 175 / 335 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.3 /8.4 to 1
For research purposes only.
In terms of Elliott Wave, this is estimated to be the third impulse wave of a large upwards fifth wave.