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15 minute opening range Forex

  • #41
  • Jun 26, 2023 4:28am Jun 26, 2023 4:28am
Quoting Sovy
Hello.
Hey Sovy.

Your descriptions are somewhat imprecise or difficult to understand for me. I assume English is not your native language.

1.) How do you decide what market to trade at the beginning of an Open? You posted charts of EUR/USD, gold, etc.
2.) Have you intensively backtested your strategy? Do you know e.g. how the results of one of your entry and exit rules have been for say at least the last 2 years for EUR/USD? I say "one of the rules" because it appears to me your parameters like you set the SL or TP still seem to vary a bit.

Thank you and good luck with it.
  • #42
  • Jun 26, 2023 4:47am Jun 26, 2023 4:47am
Quoting ifurlan
I will share my thoughts about what I have understood regarding the method
That's how I understood it too.
  • #43
  • Jun 26, 2023 5:12am Jun 26, 2023 5:12am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Hey Sovy. Your descriptions are somewhat imprecise or difficult to understand for me. I assume English is not your native language. 1.) How do you decide what market to trade at the beginning of an Open? You posted charts of EUR/USD, gold, etc. 2.) Have you intensively backtested your strategy? Do you know e.g. how the results of one of your entry and exit rules have been for say at least the last 2 years for EUR/USD? I say "one of the rules" because it appears to me your parameters like you set the SL or TP still seem to vary a bit. Thank...
I like the majors, gold, and basic indices like sp500.

Orb has been around since 1990s. I simply made a model that works for me which is the fib entry of a 15 min reversal.

I backtested and currently forward test and trade using this method.

The video i posted essentially shows how the method works.

1. Find an opening of exchange or closing or news convinient to you

2. Measure the first 15. Mins. See where the current price breaks. Enter the opposite by using the fib

3. Use fib the measure the .33, .38, .5 and enter thru there.

4. 1 to 1 r, or 1, 1.5, 1.6, or more depending on your risk taste.

Stop loss may be adjusted depending on the bars or market structure forming so that part i leave to you. But the method is simply this.



https://www.tradingview.com/x/7AMVByC2

Here is sample entry at sydney close.

There is an art to this also. And thats something you learn iver time
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #44
  • Jun 26, 2023 5:17am Jun 26, 2023 5:17am
Is that what you mean?

EUR/USD 26/06/2023

Chart is M1 (for a better view on the touch/break of the range)

London Open = 08:00 (10:00 on my chart)
08:00 - 08:15 = Range (first 15 Minutes after the Open)

Range High = 1.09051
Range Low = 1.09027
Range = 2.4 Pips

1.) Price touched the low of the range 2 Minutes after the Open.
2.) I am drawing the Fib from the low to the high of the range (never used it, hope that's correct).
3.) I buy on the 50% Fib Level

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #45
  • Jun 26, 2023 5:49am Jun 26, 2023 5:49am
Quoting lddd
Is that what you mean? EUR/USD 26/06/2023 Chart is M1 (for a better view on the touch/break of the range) London Open = 08:00 (10:00 on my chart) 08:00 - 08:15 = Range (first 15 Minutes after the Open) Range High = 1.09051 Range Low = 1.09027 Range = 2.4 Pips 1.) Price touched the low of the range 2 Minutes after the Open. 2.) I am drawing the Fib from the low to the high of the range (never used it, hope that's correct). 3.) I buy on the 50% Fib Level {image}
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5enYJbaV

Here is how it would look if you're using the traditional fib
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #46
  • Edited 6:19am Jun 26, 2023 5:54am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} https://www.tradingview.com/x/5enYJbaV Here is how it would look if you're using the traditional fib
Unfortunately, I can't see anything from it. Too small. Would be nice if you could post desktop charts in full width instead of using your phone.

Here's what it appears to me on TradingView. On your example you drawn the Fib in the wrong direction. Price first traveled/touched the low of the 08:00-08:15 range and since then it moved to the upside. So i would have considered to BUY at the 50.0 level.

I started drawing the Fib indicator starting from the low to the high of the range. It should be the traditional Fib tool.

Update: Wrong chart posted. I meant drawing it from the high to the low of the range.

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  • #47
  • Jun 26, 2023 6:36am Jun 26, 2023 6:36am
Euro 9 to 10

Rules

1. First 15 min range.
you can view this at 15m or lower time frame. Important see the range

2. 2nd 15 m candle should pierce above or below.

3. If pierce above, then traditional fib down up. Order for a short
4. Enter at .38
5. Go for 1 to 1 or your risk tolerance.

If you get stopped out, try one more time. Else, if 2 loses, thats it for the day.

Here was a nice trade.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rBo7xikR
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #48
  • Jun 26, 2023 7:02am Jun 26, 2023 7:02am
What is Euro 9 to 10? You need to be more precise in your writings. It’s really hard to understand what you mean :-)

What is „pierce“? …
  • #49
  • Jun 26, 2023 9:00am Jun 26, 2023 9:00am
Maybe this could help to backtest your strategy idea. However it uses two fixed lines acting as the buy/sell trigger instead of the Fibonacci levels you draw in by hand.

Here is an example of GBP/USD based on the London Open for June 1st.

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  • #50
  • Edited 6:01pm Jun 26, 2023 5:40pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting lddd
What is Euro 9 to 10? You need to be more precise in your writings. It’s really hard to understand what you mean :-) What is „pierce“? …
Ny time 9 am to 10 am. Opening range.

Pierce the range 15 mins.

Ah thats a different method than my own. The two lines. I use the fib simply because it allows me to max my rr to more than 1r. But if it works for you, that is ok.

The main principle is price fakes and goes a different way.

euro tokyo open 9am gmt plus 7 to 10am.

15 min opening range in 1 min time frame view.

Measure the range form

See where price pierces. Up or down.

If up, we are looking for a short. If down, we are looking for a long.

My suggested price action is the use of fib as entry. So take that golden zone reversal. And target atleast 1 to 1 r. Or standard diviation 1.6 or more depending on your risk preference or subjective take profit.

Example in tokyo session, that is the day's opening gap.


https://www.tradingview.com/x/imhMwZYu

https://www.tradingview.com/x/u5fI87dD

target met
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #51
  • Jun 26, 2023 9:38pm Jun 26, 2023 9:38pm
Hi,

If i trading jpy pair in GMT+8. My fibo range is from 8.00 to 8.15 right or i can choose any time between 8 to 9am to draw the fibo?
  • #52
  • Edited Jun 27, 2023 3:07am Jun 26, 2023 10:05pm | Edited Jun 27, 2023 3:07am
Quoting r3shss
Hi, If i trading jpy pair in GMT+8. My fibo range is from 8.00 to 8.15 right or i can choose any time between 8 to 9am to draw the fibo?
tokyo time is 9am to 10am +7gmt.

You draw fib on the 9am to 915 am +7gmt candle.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LCO3xUjY

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BmbsInWj

EURO.

Rules

Sydney close 2pm +7gmt.

Measure the 15 min range.
Let the next 15 min bar form to see where it pierced.
Measure the first bar with the fib with extention in the direction opposite the pierce. The 3rd bar serves as entry bar.

It should tag the .38. Then target 1 or 1.6 or your subjective risk.

Note this is very precise. So, if your spreads wide. I advise to only do jpy pairs at tokyo session or ausy pairs. And trade euro pairs at london session or tokyo closing. Or ny session.

Just because we know when to trade doesnt mean our instruments will do the same.

Because of spread my first frade got kod so i entered again. Got it with profit.

Mechanically i dont move the stop loss or widen it. I often have to enter the second time. But if you want a wider stop loss, adjust the end via the 2nd 15m bar

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MazzxBuK

Beautiful sydney close trade for ninja or usd jpy.

2pm +7gmt

Measure the 15m range

See where the second 15m range pierces.

Use the fib in the direction opposing the 2nd 15 m (3 5 min bar) pierce. The 3rd 15 mins

Enter at the .38 with stop loss at 0. Target atleast 1. If your risk tolerance is high go for 1.6, or more.

This is rare but in this case it went to 4.2

update on when to trade

For clarity, I'll be using sea time of gmt plus 8.

Suggested first trafe of the day for aus and jpy pairs is

8 am to 9am which is the tokyo opening.

Spreads are infinitely Bigger prior to this opening.

1pm to 2pm which is sydney close.

4 to 5pm or london opening

5pm to 6pm or tokyo closing

9pm to 10pm for ny opening

Outside of these, i can't vouch for it because. I am asleep at those times.

Also i apologise, japan x tokyo is gmt plus 9 not 7.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/THd63x95

Euro tokyo close. 5pm +8gmt to 6pm +8gmt.

At 1 min. Wait for the bars to form the 15 m range.
The next 15 m should pierce that range.
Now measure with fib going to the opposing direction where you will trade.
On the 3rd 15m, thats whern you enter your order. This is to avoid the noise of being stopped out.

Target 1 or 1.6 or your prefered risk.

Tokyo close gave a good trade, not as good as sydney but this is still great.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dFjlmGUA

haha. I execited to early
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #53
  • Jun 27, 2023 2:51am Jun 27, 2023 2:51am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} Hi, there is this indicator in trading view by butoiki on fx sessions, that on default mode should show all the opens and closes of the exchanges. I am not familiar on how to use your indicator, is that in mt4? I dont really use indicators much now a days except for fib, but im willing to learn. :3 Specific time i use based on +8 gmt. 1. 8 to 9 am 2. 1 to 2 pm 3. 3 to 4 pm 4. 4 to 5 pm 5. 730 to 830 pm 6. 9 to 10 pm 7. 1 to 2 am 8. 5 to 6 am The one i love best is 8 to 9am since its mornig for me. And 4 to 5 pm since its the first one i...
Hi,

You mention here that the time range is 1 hour For example 8am to 9am . But we will draw the fibo from 8am to 8.15am only and wait the price to break and come back to .38 or .5 . So does it means that the price should come before 9am for the setup vallid or any time is okay.
  • #54
  • Jun 27, 2023 5:02am Jun 27, 2023 5:02am
Quoting r3shss
{quote} Hi, You mention here that the time range is 1 hour For example 8am to 9am . But we will draw the fibo from 8am to 8.15am only and wait the price to break and come back to .38 or .5 . So does it means that the price should come before 9am for the setup vallid or any time is okay.
Hi the period of trading is an hour. The range for our test is 15m.

On the 3rd 15 mins usually less stop out. So the trade is valid within the hour. After the hour, it would be called the 1h opening or closing range. I don't trade these because the thread is focused on 15 mins.

Are there variations of this? Yeah. But this one method is enough for anyone to start with. And it's simple and quick. And honestly i should be selling this to people, but i firmly believe in sharing what i know for free.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #55
  • Jun 27, 2023 5:56am Jun 27, 2023 5:56am
Thanks to the thread starter very Interesting that you created this thread on the OR Strong Reversal.
I will add one key factor to this type of trading. The odds will significantly jump in your favour, if you can keep a record of the average pip size of the Opening Range, let's say 20 days average OR size. You want to see an increase greater than 25% of the average OR size. Those pairs will give you more than 70% reversal than just wishing for a reversal to happen.
For the programmers out there making this type of scanner will be great for the community.
Cheers.
The key is to do what you know
  • #56
  • Jun 27, 2023 7:27am Jun 27, 2023 7:27am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oNXI0C3m

Euro

830 to 930 driver +8gmt

15m range forms, 2nd 15m bar goes up, take the fib where the extension goes down, then enter thru .38 and target 1 or 1.6

9 to 10 driver +8gmt

Wait for the 9 to 915 range and measure it. 2nd bar should pierce. 3rd bar should return and reverse. Fib to the reverse of the pierce, Enter thru .38. Target 1 or 1.6 or your choice.

Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #57
  • Jun 27, 2023 7:29am Jun 27, 2023 7:29am
Quoting charts247
Thanks to the thread starter very Interesting that you created this thread on the OR Strong Reversal. I will add one key factor to this type of trading. The odds will significantly jump in your favour, if you can keep a record of the average pip size of the Opening Range, let's say 20 days average OR size. You want to see an increase greater than 25% of the average OR size. Those pairs will give you more than 70% reversal than just wishing for a reversal to happen. For the programmers out there making this type of scanner will be great for the community....
wouldnt this ensure the price goes in the direction of the breach?

mmm if the bar is smaller than the average 20 or so, it could reverse more?
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #58
  • Jun 27, 2023 7:44am Jun 27, 2023 7:44am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} wouldnt this ensure the price goes in the direction of the breach? mmm if the bar is smaller than the average 20 or so, it could reverse more?
From experience, a small opening range breakout (less than average size) will persist in the direction of the break, but you must be aware of the wave structure count which means are we in the middle of a trend or at the end when a reversal is likely to happen. A large opening range breakout ( Greater than average) will reverse most times than not. This also depends on the current state of the market i.e. Momentum High or Momentum low or just at the beginning of a new impulse after a pullback. If you are in a trend and the price has already reached the end of the wave structure before the new session opened, you are likely to see a big opening range. I hope this helps.
Take a look at the attached. https://www.tradingview.com/x/YXaTtRtT/
The key is to do what you know
  • #59
  • Jun 27, 2023 8:23am Jun 27, 2023 8:23am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} Ny time 9 am to 10 am. Opening range. Pierce the range 15 mins. Ah thats a different method than my own. The two lines. I use the fib simply because it allows me to max my rr to more than 1r. But if it works for you, that is ok. The main principle is price fakes and goes a different way. euro tokyo open 9am gmt plus 7 to 10am. 15 min opening range in 1 min time frame view. Measure the range form See where price pierces. Up or down. If up, we are looking for a short. If down, we are looking for a long. My suggested price action is the use...
You wrote that you use the first 15 Minutes as your opening range, but 9-10 are 60 Minutes for me, not 15. That's why i asked if you could be more precise in your wording as i didn't make sense to me. It's a bit confusing. NY Open is 8:00 am (local time in New York) not 09:00 am. London Open is 08:00 am (local time in the UK) not 09:00 am. It would be nice if you could use uniform formulations for your times here, makes it easier for anyone trying to follow up with your strategy.

Thanks and regards.
  • #60
  • Jun 27, 2023 8:28am Jun 27, 2023 8:28am
Quoting Sovy
Euro 830 to 930
Again. 08:30-9:30 = 60 Minutes range, not 15 Minutes
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