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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #161
  • May 22, 2007 3:50am May 22, 2007 3:50am
I would LOVE to be long when this thing goes; here's my problem... on the one hand it can explode up and be gone for quite some time/pips. The problem is it can run up 200 pips and just be at the top of the daily channel down. THAT area would then be a legit area for a short BACK to near lows to make a double bottom and THEN bye bye birdie.
  • #162
  • May 22, 2007 4:09am May 22, 2007 4:09am
maby.....maby not
  • #163
  • May 22, 2007 4:39am May 22, 2007 4:39am
lol missed that, kind of wish I had taken long now.
  • #164
  • Edited 6:52am May 22, 2007 6:39am | Edited 6:52am
Quote
you're very brave trying to stop a boulder rolling downhill. Look ak the EURCAD chart - there's not much resistance for a couple hundred more pips

Ive got big muscles

Ive got a small stop so im risking 25 pips for a possible decent move up. good R:R I think.

Looking at EUR/CAD chart on daily timeframe we see something potentially very important regarding resistance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #165
  • May 22, 2007 8:19am May 22, 2007 8:19am
As long as USDCAD remains below 1.0880-90 and EURCAD below 1.4600-20, they are bearish for me. Wait for a break of 1.46 barrier in EURCAD and will see a good move down, in my opinion.

Too sad Cesar is off this thread, seems Im the only one shorting this pair now...
  • #166
  • May 22, 2007 8:43am May 22, 2007 8:43am
Quoting pabloski
As long as USDCAD remains below 1.0880-90 and EURCAD below 1.4600-20, they are bearish for me. Wait for a break of 1.46 barrier in EURCAD and will see a good move down, in my opinion.

Too sad Cesar is off this thread, seems Im the only one shorting this pair now...
my friend but , i dont think USDCAD goes base on EURCAD ...

at least in this case ...
  • #167
  • May 22, 2007 8:44am May 22, 2007 8:44am
I think soon USDCAD start to go up thats why i said now time for long
  • #168
  • May 22, 2007 8:56am May 22, 2007 8:56am
Quoting viking
my friend but , i dont think USDCAD goes base on EURCAD ...

at least in this case ...

I know, Im talking about two different pairs. Read my post again, I never stated a correlation between them. Just said that at this levels both are bearish for me.
  • #169
  • May 22, 2007 8:57am May 22, 2007 8:57am
Quoting pabloski
Too sad Cesar is off this thread, seems Im the only one shorting this pair now...
I just have nothing to add to the thread anymore. i'm short and that is it.
  • #170
  • May 22, 2007 9:03am May 22, 2007 9:03am
Heres a daily chart showing that they have a good correlation

I think it is worth a the risk for a long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #171
  • May 22, 2007 11:16am May 22, 2007 11:16am
Quoting el_duende
I think it is worth a the risk for a long
Based upon what? The downward momentum has slowed and everyone wants to jump on the tracks to pick up a few pennies.. Don't try to outsmart the market here, wait for the momentum to turn before risking capital. Go back and read through this thread, it's littered with bottom callers (gamblers) who were proved wrong. I'd rather join upward momentum even after it's a few hundred pips off the low, rather than trying to pick a bottom here.
  • #172
  • May 22, 2007 11:37am May 22, 2007 11:37am
Quoting Trader KGB
Based upon what? The downward momentum has slowed and everyone wants to jump on the tracks to pick up a few pennies.. Don't try to outsmart the market here, wait for the momentum to turn before risking capital.
You know you are right, I am still holding my long since 1.11, but the downtrend is still intact, I just calm myself by the fact of positive interest everyday only. But on the other hand you can see on the 4 hour chart that the CAD is ready for at least some retracement. Note here I said it is ready and not it started the retracement.
  • #173
  • Edited 12:21pm May 22, 2007 11:46am | Edited 12:21pm
Im only risking 25 pips for potential move up that may not materialise. As R:R I think it is worth it. Sure its going against a huge move down but as you say momentum has slowed which is why I think a small risk is worth it.

(Just to add from a previous post of mine in case people think I randomly decided to go long)

Quote
Reasons
Ive gone long at 1.0841. stop 1.0816

Reasons
$ strength is increasing
1.0830 looking like current resistance
record low in currency
going long gives positive interest
on hourly chart techincal indicators starting to show up is the way to go

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #174
  • May 22, 2007 11:52am May 22, 2007 11:52am
USD/CAD 4 Hour chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FX-000 May.jpg Size: 29 KB
  • #175
  • May 22, 2007 12:11pm May 22, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Based upon what? The downward momentum has slowed and everyone wants to jump on the tracks to pick up a few pennies.. Don't try to outsmart the market here, wait for the momentum to turn before risking capital. Go back and read through this thread, it's littered with bottom callers (gamblers) who were proved wrong. I'd rather join upward momentum even after it's a few hundred pips off the low, rather than trying to pick a bottom here.

Dude we are not trying to "outsmart the market" here. You can't force people to go short with you, it is our choice to go long period. It sounds like you are 100% certain USD is going down, which is wrong. Nothing is 100% certain else there is no forex market. So if we people who went long are "gamblers" then people shorting with you are what? forex gods? Everyone here is trying to guess for the next move, nothing wrong with that. Don't force your system on other people. this is supposed to be only a debate about USD/CAD pair itself.

I meant no offence.

REgards.
  • #176
  • May 22, 2007 12:14pm May 22, 2007 12:14pm
Quoting amylase
So if we people who went long are "gamblers" then people shorting with you are what? forex gods? .
  • #177
  • May 22, 2007 1:14pm May 22, 2007 1:14pm
amylase - I'm not short (no position), and not trying to force my system onto anyone. Just conversing that the bottom spotting may be a bit premature at this juncture (from this trader's perspective), and that the odds of such strategies oftentimes are not favorable (though difficult to state empirically). I could very well be wrong, after all, I was close to going long last week at 1040 before the floor gave way. Granted I didn't see el_duende's first post where he mentioned his strategy, I just saw his chart & saying it's time to buy and thought caution was thrown to the wind. I stand corrected.
  • #178
  • May 22, 2007 5:03pm May 22, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting amylase
forex gods?
yes? what do you want amylase.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #179
  • May 22, 2007 5:05pm May 22, 2007 5:05pm
Quoting bravado
yes? what do you want amylase.
  • #180
  • May 22, 2007 5:30pm May 22, 2007 5:30pm
Quoting bravado
yes? what do you want amylase.
I'm sorry amylase, bravado keeps picking up the phone in my office at the top of the tower. I am listening now, go ahead
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
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