FIBO-ABCD Strategy Journal (Fib+TDTL) | Forex Factory

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Attachments: FIBO-ABCD Strategy Journal (Fib+TDTL)
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FIBO-ABCD Strategy Journal (Fib+TDTL)

  • #1
  • First Post: May 21, 2007 5:17pm May 21, 2007 5:17pm
Hi all,

This is my journal for the day.

05.21.07 EURUSD
O 13514
SL 13682
TP 13374

Close at 13468 Profit 46 pips

I am applying Fib ratio + Tom Demark TrendLine for my analysis ONLY.

Here is how I did:
1. Use MN, WK, D, and (4H if need to) to find the trendline.
All the trend line have to be in same side of market trend. If the price is
not in the same trend, doing the test if the pt D=127.2 fib ratio is
complete. PT 127.2 is the way of considering a possible reversal pt.
2. Looking for entry at point C of Fib ratio. The price have to be in same side
of trend that confluence with higher time frame.
3. TP always set fib ext 127.2, and stop loss always set at pt A (swing
high/low)

I do not like to spend a lot time to wait the setup and place trade. As the result, I came out this lazy idea to identify the chart once a day=00:00GMT and I can make the decision right the way.

From back test, I only did Jan-2006, even the profit:loss ratio isnt fair enough (about 1:2<), but winning ratio in this point is almost 99.9%.

I will appreciate if someone can do more backtest.
If you have any question, please let me know.

The trading journal will keep going when there is trade setup.

P.S. For this point, I will only focus on EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 May. 21 14.58.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #2
  • May 21, 2007 6:19pm May 21, 2007 6:19pm
john,

Can you give us, a step-by-step in drawing those charts, for example which TL that you draw first, and the chart evolution of that, also how you use fib#, all of them or just 50% like Jacko ?

It would be nice to know not only the result, but how you come up with it, thanks for your sharing.
  • #3
  • May 21, 2007 6:53pm May 21, 2007 6:53pm
Quoting mason
john,

Can you give us, a step-by-step in drawing those charts, for example which TL that you draw first, and the chart evolution of that, also how you use fib#, all of them or just 50% like Jacko ?

It would be nice to know not only the result, but how you come up with it, thanks for your sharing.
rule of draw TDTL
swing high form when candle are lower on left and right
swing low from when candle are higher on left and right

draw the line from the latest swing from right to left and extend to the right.

but in FIBO strategy, we just want to see if major TDTL been violate by price
then we consider the direction of price.

The fib ratio i use are 23.6,38.2,50,61.8,78.6,127.2,161.8

At this point, I have hard time to describe it in detail, but the concept is follow the trend with higher timeframe, then enter the trade at point c.

if 127 full fill, but trendline didnt break in higher TF, consider lower TF for trendline break as direction change confirm for shorter TF to enter the position.

I will try to make more examples when I open the trade.
  • #4
  • May 21, 2007 7:06pm May 21, 2007 7:06pm
O 13464
SL 13529
TP 13426

Reason:
MN uptrend TL didnt violate, but 127 ratio full fill. consider reverse pt
WK uptrend TL violate, trend change to downtrend
D downtrend TL hold the price direction
H4 pt C = swing high. connect back to previous swing high = downtrend TL hold the price direction.
pt C also = 38.2 retrace. and previous price low.

expecting pt D ext 127 to be fullfilled.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 May. 21 16.55.jpg Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 May. 21 16.55.jpg Size: 38 KB
  • #5
  • May 23, 2007 11:03am May 23, 2007 11:03am
TP fullfill. Profit +38 pips

at this point, we have tp 127 fullfill at day chart and 4H chart. also, day chart downtrend TL was violate. we will expect direction change to uptrend.
for next entry, we have to wait patient if there is pt C form in 4hr or day chart.

p.s. ebook is in progress. to be continue!! ^^
  • #6
  • May 23, 2007 1:15pm May 23, 2007 1:15pm
Hi all,

Here is the eBook:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...17#post1449117

Enjoy!!!
  • #7
  • May 24, 2007 4:00pm May 24, 2007 4:00pm
Hello John, very intrigued by your system.

The first issue I have is could you post the link from your ebook on how to draw the TDTL, there is no link associated with your pasting : "To read full article, please visit Forex Information – How to Draw DeMarkk Trendlines". I would appreciate that. I am in the process of drawing my charts with your method will post later to make sure I got it.

Really appreciate the effort,

Luke
  • #8
  • May 24, 2007 4:28pm May 24, 2007 4:28pm
John another question, do you draw three seperate TDTL's for each time frame (MN, WK, D, and possibly 4hr) and do you also put only two fib retracements from the MN chart?

Once again, thank you for your effort.

Luke
  • #9
  • May 24, 2007 5:40pm May 24, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting sublimeonskunk
Hello John, very intrigued by your system.

The first issue I have is could you post the link from your ebook on how to draw the TDTL, there is no link associated with your pasting : "To read full article, please visit Forex Information – How to Draw DeMarkk Trendlines". I would appreciate that. I am in the process of drawing my charts with your method will post later to make sure I got it.

Really appreciate the effort,

Luke
The link had been update. Please refer to the strategy thread.
  • #10
  • May 24, 2007 5:42pm May 24, 2007 5:42pm
Quoting sublimeonskunk
John another question, do you draw three seperate TDTL's for each time frame (MN, WK, D, and possibly 4hr) and do you also put only two fib retracements from the MN chart?

Once again, thank you for your effort.

Luke
1. yes, i draw the TD TL seperately according to the swing high/low is different.
2. i think it depends. but 2 fib ratio set is minimun to recognize the ABCD pattern. if neccessary, 3rd set will draw from the biggest swing to confirm the retrace ratio will hold or not.
  • #11
  • May 24, 2007 7:02pm May 24, 2007 7:02pm
O 13424 SL 13501 TP 13372

Reason:
1. Day Chart Downtrend TL resume.
Next TP is 161.8=13372.
13372 cluster with WK Fib 38.2=13366 and 4H 161.8=13364
I pick the highest one for saftey exit pt.
2. 4H TL Still in Shap. From PT C to D is very possible.
TP set at 13372 as cluster that explain in point 1.
Stop Loss set at pt C from 4H chart.

P.S. MN Chart is seeming forming Twizer Top also name Rail Road Track.
Next month is going to be roller coster month ^^

Tip: RR only work at the end of trend.

Happy Trader ^^
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 052407-2.jpg Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 052407-1.jpg Size: 52 KB
  • #12
  • May 24, 2007 10:33pm May 24, 2007 10:33pm
TP update to 13393

I feel 161.8 need a while to reach. dat why I change TP closer for more secure.
  • #13
  • Edited 1:52am May 25, 2007 1:27am | Edited 1:52am
Quoting johntsai
O 13424 SL 13501 TP 13372

Reason:
1. Day Chart Downtrend TL resume.
Next TP is 161.8=13372.
13372 cluster with WK Fib 38.2=13366 and 4H 161.8=13364
I pick the highest one for saftey exit pt.
2. 4H TL Still in Shap. From PT C to D is very possible.
TP set at 13372 as cluster that explain in point 1.
Stop Loss set at pt C from 4H chart.

P.S. MN Chart is seeming forming Twizer Top also name Rail Road Track.
Next month is going to be roller coster month ^^

Tip: RR only work at the end of trend.

Happy Trader ^^
John, where did you draw your Fib Ret. from did you do it for all time periods (MN, WK, D, 4HR), even past two MN retracements?

How do you decide where to draw from?

Edit: I think I have got in A to B is the larger fib retrace, while B to C is the smaller? On whatever time frame you take the trade on, for example in the trade currently going you have drawn it from the 4hr or the D chart? Am I correct?

Sorry for the confusing post however this is exciting.


Thanks for all your effort,

Luke
  • #14
  • May 25, 2007 3:13am May 25, 2007 3:13am
John at any point do you disregard "false" wicks and what I mean by that is when I draw some of my TDTL's they give strange angles that are clearly not following the trend, but often times if I draw the TDTL to the next TDTL wick and it much more closely follows the apparent pattern. I have come across this a couple of times, am I correct in doing this? Is this evidence of a trend change?

I have attached two pics and the green dotted line is my example. For reference the good TDTL.gif is the one that follows the trend, where as the poor TDTL.gif is drawn to the correct wicks.


Thank You so much,

Luke
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: good tdtl.jpg Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: poor tdtl.jpg Size: 45 KB
  • #15
  • May 25, 2007 11:27am May 25, 2007 11:27am
Quoting sublimeonskunk
John, where did you draw your Fib Ret. from did you do it for all time periods (MN, WK, D, 4HR), even past two MN retracements?

How do you decide where to draw from?

Edit: I think I have got in A to B is the larger fib retrace, while B to C is the smaller? On whatever time frame you take the trade on, for example in the trade currently going you have drawn it from the 4hr or the D chart? Am I correct?

Sorry for the confusing post however this is exciting.


Thanks for all your effort,

Luke
first, let me answer your question:
1. the fib ratio always draw from the most obvious wick of the candle in the trend.
for example: in the pic of wk chart, i draw the fib from very bottom of the
wick. its very obvious. right? but, in day chart, i will consider to draw the
fib according to the swing high or swing low that form the TD TL. this can
easily recognize where is the ABCD pattern will form.
2. please send the screen shot so i can clearly explain your question.

position update:

i have to admit it that i made a bad entry last nit.
couple reasons.
1. day chart shows 127 fulfilled. i just feel too exciting the trend resume by the TL holds and making decision to open the position to tp 1618. it is not a good entry anyway. next expecting tp might be mn's fib retrace shown as pic.
2. 4H chart doesnt have qualify pt c. I am so dumn.. ><
3. qualification of entry pt is: first, there have to have a, b then form c.
second, the c pt better have price support from previous price low/high.
(something like previous price low become a resistance pt of pt c)
4. therefore, the trend still in right direction in day chart, and i will keep the position because TD TL hold the price. as the result, i make another update of tp to day's 161.8=13395. wish i can get off position soon or see next obvious pt c form and then update tp again.
5. sl price keeps the same as yesterday's high. this also the last swing high pt that form the TL.
6. attached TD TL indicator hope can help out to identify the right TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 052407-update.jpg Size: 65 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Ind_TD_DeMark_3_1_LA_Mod_03B_AIME.ex4   28 KB | 994 downloads
  • #16
  • May 25, 2007 11:30am May 25, 2007 11:30am
Quoting sublimeonskunk
John at any point do you disregard "false" wicks and what I mean by that is when I draw some of my TDTL's they give strange angles that are clearly not following the trend, but often times if I draw the TDTL to the next TDTL wick and it much more closely follows the apparent pattern. I have come across this a couple of times, am I correct in doing this? Is this evidence of a trend change?

I have attached two pics and the green dotted line is my example. For reference the good TDTL.gif is the one that follows the trend, where as the poor TDTL.gif is drawn to the correct wicks.


Thank You so much,

Luke
please read the qualification of TDTL article attached in the eBook.

the poor TL is not drawing correct.
in downtrend, the last swing high have to connect back to the prvious swing high that is higher then it in order to make a trendline from up to down.

for detail, please refer to eBook.
  • #17
  • May 25, 2007 1:26pm May 25, 2007 1:26pm
Sorry about that, reread and saw it.

Thanks again
  • #18
  • May 27, 2007 8:07pm May 27, 2007 8:07pm
my current position still open. but 4H form the entry for C pt.
attach as pic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 052707.jpg Size: 72 KB
  • #19
  • May 28, 2007 8:09pm May 28, 2007 8:09pm
John this is kind of a stupid question, but have you ever entered any positions where C is higher than A in a downtrend and vice versa for an uptrend? I have noticed a couple of instances, especially in the 4hr where C is sometimes higher, but all other timeframes hold the trend. Just wondering what your opinion was.

Thanks much.


Luke
  • #20
  • May 29, 2007 10:49am May 29, 2007 10:49am
Quoting sublimeonskunk
John this is kind of a stupid question, but have you ever entered any positions where C is higher than A in a downtrend and vice versa for an uptrend? I have noticed a couple of instances, especially in the 4hr where C is sometimes higher, but all other timeframes hold the trend. Just wondering what your opinion was.

Thanks much.


Luke
i might not quite understand ur question fully, but by answering some pt could help u out.

1. when c pt is higher then a, it not a valid entry due to fib 786 broke the rule of the trend. so , never never enter pt c is higher then a
2. can u pt out where i did to misleading u in 4h chart?
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