Dave
1% Money Management is a myth, fib is a myth and so on.. 45 replies
'Averaging Down Is for Losers' - valid or not? 27 replies
Fast Averaging versus Slow Averaging 1 reply
Averaging 7 replies
Martigale and Averaging Down 4 replies
DislikedTo me, the really good news of your analysis is that the time of trade isn't unique to one particular entry time; it appears that the "method" is robust for entries between 6 and 18.Ignored
Disliked{quote} My guess is, that at this stage the EntryHour is not so relevant yet. It will be interesting to check this again once we have a positive expectancy (i.e. level 3 or level 4, hopefully).Ignored
DislikedWhat if you increase the number of levels to 4? To 5? It would be interesting to determine if there is an optimal number of levels - i.e., do you get a Poissen distribution?Ignored
DislikedAlso, with three levels and higher TP/SL, I suspect that the average number of bars needed to complete a trade is increasing substantially, along with the total number of trades opened, which means that swap costs could start negatively impacting the returns.Ignored
DislikedLevel 2 - SL/TP Now we are adding a second level. Once the first trade hit the stop loss, we now leave open the first trade and add a second trade in the same direction as the first trade. For both trades we now set new stop loss and take profit levels relative to the entry price of the second trade.Ignored
DislikedAccording to your 5th post, whenever a new trade is opened, the TP/SL for each previously opened trade is reset to the TP/SL used for the new level based off the entry price of the new level.Ignored
DislikedIf this is the case, when at the 4th level and the 4th trade hits it's TP (80 pips), how can the trades at Levels 1, 2, and 3 be in profit?Ignored
DislikedNow that we investigated Averaging Down, perhaps it is interesting to investigate Averaging Up (i.e. adding to winning positions, rather than scaling-in when in drawdown)? What do you think?Ignored
DislikedMany years ago, there was a FF member named yazzie who shared his idea of "Hedging/Averaging down" correlated pairs. He didn't go into details, but he did share enough stating that he averaged down at "wide intervals" on the losing pair (100-300 pips; he was trading the GBPJPY against EURJPY) and taking rather quick profits (20-50 pips) on the winning pair.Ignored
Dislikedfor me, averaging up, allows me to minimize the number of trades in my basket that are going against the prevailing trend, while adding a sufficient number of trades with the trend that can compensate for the losing trades.Ignored
DislikedThe fact that you have what looks to be a positive expectancy off of random trades is simply fascinating and worthwhile to pursue.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Indeed interesting to read his story and approach. Said he made a lot of money using averaging down (by hedging using another pair) and was trading full-time. Has not been on FF the last 5 years. Hope he did well and is retired by now. {quote} I am fully with you. Adding to a winning trade feels much better, than pooring more money in a losing position. {quote} For years I blindly assumed the mathematicians are right, and those on FF who claim otherwise are just beginners who have not encountered the Black Swan yet. However, so far my backtests...Ignored
DislikedMy manual trading experienced shown that usually if you randomly enter trades and you use MM to come out from bad trades than soon or later you will face unconfortable situations and DD will increate a lot.Ignored
Dislikedit appers to be best a little price prediction and after use, if required, MM to come out from loosing positions.Ignored
DislikedI am getting your results for AUDCAD but not for EURUSD. Did you use the same EA Settings for both?Ignored