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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #141
  • May 21, 2007 7:23am May 21, 2007 7:23am
Quoting pabloski
Shorted again on friday @ 1.0881. Open TP at this moment.

Seems the trend is for Bravado to be Paris Hilton...
i am a pro.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #142
  • May 21, 2007 10:40am May 21, 2007 10:40am
Quoting WTB
WOW, today's down-move on both USDCAD and EURCAD was too fast and too straight forward for my taste, so I didn't profit from that down thrust in the first couple of hours of London.

Anyone caught that up?
i've had few shorts eurocad since mid april (1.5250 ish)

recently i just closed a position usdcad trade, and reopened with couple of position since 1.1055

these cad pairs have been a trip with gas rising and good fundamentals. But I'm sure it's gonna be over soon, since they are waaaay to oversold. Feel a little upset cause i've been riding it for the longest time..feeling a bit attached.....NOT!
  • #143
  • May 21, 2007 12:21pm May 21, 2007 12:21pm
Well I might have killed it, went short at 72.

So be prepared for a correction.
  • #144
  • May 21, 2007 1:12pm May 21, 2007 1:12pm
14:11 DODGE SAYS CHEAPER U.S. DOLLAR HELPS ENCOURAGE U.S. EXPORTS

14:09 Bank of Canada's Dodge says US current acct gap showing signs of stabilizing; says cheaper US dollar supports US exports

still on the wires.
  • #145
  • May 21, 2007 1:59pm May 21, 2007 1:59pm
14:57 BOC's Dodge declines to comment on gains in Canadian dollar
  • #146
  • May 21, 2007 2:15pm May 21, 2007 2:15pm
cadjpy looks more interesting at the moment then usdcad.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #147
  • May 21, 2007 2:17pm May 21, 2007 2:17pm
I have been reading this thread with great interest, in order to figure out people thoughts & reasons for shorting CAD across the board. Let me explain the rationale behind this drop & cheer up people who are long USD/CAD.

This all started Sept/Oct. 2006, CAD pairs were in a stable down trend, when suddenly one day CAD foreign minister made an announcement that he will start taxing some foreign pool of investment. With this statement it seemed that he had let the cat among the pigeons, there was mayhem. Look at the CAD pairs, EUR/CAD went from 1.42 t0 1.57, GBP/CAD rose some 2000 pips, CAD/JPY came down to 97. There were no fundamentals involved that was pure panic & mindless selling of CAD.

The same thing is happening this time. The fundamentals stay the same, a month of good manipulated data does not mean that Canada is flying high. It is better placed then other economies but not to an extent that its currency should appreciate to this level i.e. 1.08. This i call it mindless buying of CAD, this is happening now-a-days because the hedge fund managers & other investment groups are buying CAD without paying attention to fundamentals, this is risking their clients money & when CAD depreciates then they wont have time to get out & will lose big time. This happened in Feb/March 2007 when all the JPY pairs crashed, because there were too many one sided, non fundamental trades.

How long can this last, not long, unless the Canadians want to live on zinc, & other metals & have oil for the drink. With open market policy around the world there are cheaper commodoties & oil to be had from other countries. CAD will lose the USA market, because no way we are paying them obnoxious prices for their goods.

So now we have determined that all this CAD strength is non fundamental. It will reverse. From where no body knows because technicals always lag behind. Can it go to parity, it might. The more down it goes the more chances you have to be profitable with your long trades.

Bank of Canada is very unlikely to increase the interest rates, even if they do it is already priced in.

Now let me tell you about a scenario which i will implement & i know no body can ever make me lose this trade set up. I might stay in this trade for years.

At present USD/CAD is 1.0830. That means 1 Dollar buys 1.08 Canadian dollars. There are only 10,800 pips to zero. USD/CAD can never ever go to 0.0000. I just entered USD/CAD long at 1.0840 with 1 mini lot which gives me little less than 1 dollar/pip. I have set aside $ 15,000, only for this trade. There is no stop. The limit is 1.2000. Now i dont care where ever it goes. I will enter another long 1 mini lot, if the price goes to 0.9830. For every 1000 pips drop in USD/CAD i will keep on adding 1 mini lot. No stops but limit on all of these is 1.20. I will add more money to my account if need be. This set up you can never ever lose. Just stay put, even if it takes 20 years. At present you get a daily interest of 0.30 dollars on long USD/CAD positions. This positive interest rate is there to stay for at least some time, so no worries there either.
  • #148
  • May 21, 2007 2:35pm May 21, 2007 2:35pm
Oh boy.... I give up this thread....



Breach of Friday's low 0874. New low at 8225. Retest of Friday's low during today's dollar frenzy. Failed. New test of 8230 low area, retrace and stays.

BOC's Dogde says "USD down is good to the US exporters, no comments on strong CAD"

So...

GO LONG USDCAD appears...

Thanks for the ride guys... I'm off...
  • #149
  • May 21, 2007 2:44pm May 21, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting kzazs
I have been reading this thread with great interest, in order to figure out people thoughts & reasons for shorting CAD across the board. Let me explain the rationale behind this drop & cheer up people who are long USD/CAD.

This all started Sept/Oct. 2006, CAD pairs were in a stable down trend, when suddenly one day CAD foreign minister made an announcement that he will start taxing some foreign pool of investment. With this statement it seemed that he had let the cat among the pigeons, there was mayhem. Look at the CAD pairs, EUR/CAD went from 1.42 t0 1.57, GBP/CAD rose some 2000 pips, CAD/JPY came down to 97. There were no fundamentals involved that was pure panic & mindless selling of CAD.

The same thing is happening this time. The fundamentals stay the same, a month of good manipulated data does not mean that Canada is flying high. It is better placed then other economies but not to an extent that its currency should appreciate to this level i.e. 1.08. This i call it mindless buying of CAD, this is happening now-a-days because the hedge fund managers & other investment groups are buying CAD without paying attention to fundamentals, this is risking their clients money & when CAD depreciates then they wont have time to get out & will lose big time. This happened in Feb/March 2007 when all the JPY pairs crashed, because there were too many one sided, non fundamental trades.

How long can this last, not long, unless the Canadians want to live on zinc, & other metals & have oil for the drink. With open market policy around the world there are cheaper commodoties & oil to be had from other countries. CAD will lose the USA market, because no way we are paying them obnoxious prices for their goods.

So now we have determined that all this CAD strength is non fundamental. It will reverse. From where no body knows because technicals always lag behind. Can it go to parity, it might. The more down it goes the more chances you have to be profitable with your long trades.

Bank of Canada is very unlikely to increase the interest rates, even if they do it is already priced in.

Now let me tell you about a scenario which i will implement & i know no body can ever make me lose this trade set up. I might stay in this trade for years.

At present USD/CAD is 1.0830. That means 1 Dollar buys 1.08 Canadian dollars. There are only 10,800 pips to zero. USD/CAD can never ever go to 0.0000. I just entered USD/CAD long at 1.0840 with 1 mini lot which gives me little less than 1 dollar/pip. I have set aside $ 15,000, only for this trade. There is no stop. The limit is 1.2000. Now i dont care where ever it goes. I will enter another long 1 mini lot, if the price goes to 0.9830. For every 1000 pips drop in USD/CAD i will keep on adding 1 mini lot. No stops but limit on all of these is 1.20. I will add more money to my account if need be. This set up you can never ever lose. Just stay put, even if it takes 20 years. At present you get a daily interest of 0.30 dollars on long USD/CAD positions. This positive interest rate is there to stay for at least some time, so no worries there either.
Great info, thank you. We may enter a ranging period way sooner than you think, though, and your long should be good for more than a hundred pips before the next push down.

PS: I have Nobody Knows by Pink playing. Great song, very fitting
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #150
  • May 21, 2007 4:35pm May 21, 2007 4:35pm
I think it's time to close the short positions.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u-cad_1yr.jpg Size: 54 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #151
  • May 21, 2007 5:05pm May 21, 2007 5:05pm
I make 1 Lot long on 1.0840 , i think soon it will back to 1.1100 or more ...
  • #152
  • May 21, 2007 8:01pm May 21, 2007 8:01pm
Kind of wicked how much downward momentum cad has, I have everything up to the 4 hour coming up and it's barely budging. As long as fundies don't get involved, we could finally see a retracement.
  • #153
  • May 21, 2007 8:05pm May 21, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting shadeslay
Kind of wicked how much downward momentum cad has, I have everything up to the 4 hour coming up and it's barely budging. As long as fundies don't get involved, we could finally see a retracement.
you mean upward, not downward.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #154
  • May 21, 2007 8:10pm May 21, 2007 8:10pm
Quoting bravado
you mean upward, not downward.
lol you're right, so used to just looking at the chart down is down right?
  • #155
  • May 21, 2007 8:13pm May 21, 2007 8:13pm
Quoting shadeslay
lol you're right, so used to just looking at the chart down is down right?
you too can do this when you become a pro like myself.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #156
  • May 21, 2007 8:20pm May 21, 2007 8:20pm
Quoting bravado
you too can do this when you become a pro like myself.

Does this mean I'm pro now?
  • #157
  • May 22, 2007 2:10am May 22, 2007 2:10am
Ive gone long at 1.0841. stop 1.0816

Reasons
$ strength is increasing
1.0830 looking like current resistance
record low in currency
going long gives positive interest
on hourly chart techincal indicators starting to show up is the way to go
  • #158
  • May 22, 2007 2:46am May 22, 2007 2:46am
you're very brave trying to stop a boulder rolling downhill. Look ak the EURCAD chart - there's not much resistance for a couple hundred more pips.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #159
  • May 22, 2007 3:06am May 22, 2007 3:06am
Trying to catch a falling knife (meaning picking tops/bottoms), aint we?
  • #160
  • May 22, 2007 3:14am May 22, 2007 3:14am
I was thinking of a long but that last 4hr candle close ruined any decent price action going on. Starting to form a nice little wedge so something is bound to happen soon.
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