15 minute opening range Forex

Morning exchange open.

Ninja

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KTjX79RD

Rules
15 min range to form
Use the fib to find the 40 x 50%, order on the reversal atleast to the 1.5.

profit

Trade ends before an hour

How is the range measured? Do you go for the high and low of a 15 minute candle?

Supposing we are before tokyo open. I.e. 8am +7gmt. At exactly 9am that is the point of opening. Then where price goes in a direction away from the oprning for 15 minutes, that is the range. Now if price then pierces that 15 min range, you use the fib to find the 40 and 50% in the opposite direction of the pierce, when prices returns to that, you then make your order, taking the reversal. Stop loss at 0 and tp at 1 or 1.5 or subjective low or high.

So ya, i usd the high and low

so you use buy stop or sell stop orders when expecting price to come back into the range and out the other way?

Yes, i use buy or sell stops.

supposing a person finds the method he gets stopped out a lot, we can add the simple floor and ceiling resistance to further better your chances of not getting stopped out.

Like so

1. Find your pair at opening. Here i used 730 to 830 am +8gmt as my trading time frame. Meaning by 830am i am out.

2. Measure the 15 min range for your tp and sl basis

3. If there is a candle higher or lower than this prior to the time when the range will form, adjust your fib to that. If no, then the succeeding bars after your 15 min will be where you can increase your stop loss placement.

4. Then put in the fib

5. Enter at .38

6. Target 1 to 1 r or 1.6 or 2.6

I recorded a sample based on this.

The idea therefore is after the hour is done, you can chill and take profit.

Spending no more than 1 hour as a whole per day resonates with me as it's one of the best advise I've taken from Mark Douglas.




Note in the vid you will also see. As always we entered thru a reversal. 15m range formed, then price went up, then it went down.

Why fib? Why not candle patterns? Well, fib has an arbitrary target. So you can easily move or slide the tp and stop loss to that area. The less i have to compute, the faster i can enter and more precise.

Also you can have your own fib model.

The following are alternatives

.5 standard deviations. Meaning-5 to 5 where .5 is the increments.

1 standard deviations. Meaning -10 to 10, where .5 for the mid.

You can also have .25, .5, or .33 .5 for the entries. Although i really am not confident with the .25, and id really prefer to see price pass the 1/3rd to show volume.

Hence, the standard fib is ok. And 50%

Supposing you want no fib. What do you do?

It's a but more subjective.

Support and resistance. But in this case just the high or low or during the the range is your resistance. (Hence why its harder). Take trades where the higher or lower highs exists prior to the range for more success rate.

Entry? Ceiling or floor rejection. Aka mark douglas.

Horizontal the top, then the point of where 3 lines first meet.

If price goes up and rejects and passes its opening? Market order.

Stop loss on otherside of high or low, then tp, arbitrary 1 to 1 or 1 to 2 or 1 to 3 versus the size of the 15m range.

So there is an element of chance. Thats perfectly up to you.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GCOZupUJ

But i urge and suggest people to use the fib. It is simply more high probability.

Note. After the hour you saw price went up again reversing. that is also why i don't trade past the hour. I can't be too greedy. Also 1 to 1, 1 to 2, or 1 to 3 r is more than enough.

Summary.

There is a 1 min breakout to 1hour breakout, even 2 hours. My model works best with the 15m.

Try it, demo trade 20 or so trades of one pair of your choosing just follow the rules.

Sample trades that you probably will take and win but did not follow the fib rules. I suggested don't take these.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PzvLV5IF

Cable here followed the breakout and did not reverse. So if you want to trade these sort, you will get confused because we only look at reversals.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/latOXbs8

This confirms with our model, however if your entry is below 38, you will get stopped out. And then it'll fly to the moon.

For entries below 38, itll triger then
It opened, went down past the fib stop loss, then went up.

So if you're prudent, go 50 always. If your average risk taker, go .38. If you're risky .25 to .33

https://www.tradingview.com/x/585RMpRg

As long as the nearest highs or low are near your range, it is prudent to adjust your ceiling or floor for the fib.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/QLmaHqxl

Here, simply ignore the trade. Too far, risky, just avoid. There is another opportunity later in the day.

If the model does not appear? We disappear.

I will share my thoughts about what I have understood regarding the method:

1. You choose a currency pair and a trading session. In this example, I will stick with USDJPY and the Tokyo session.
2. I wait for the session to open and observe price development for 15 minutes afterwards. Once 15 minutes have passed, I have the range of the opening, which includes the highest and lowest prices during that 15-minute period after the opening.
3. I draw lines to mark the high and low (and the area between them becomes my range) and wait for the price to break either of these extremes.
4. Once the price has broken one of the extremes, I wait for it to retrace back into my trading range (if it breaks the high, I will wait for a bearish move, and vice versa).
5. I draw a Fib level based on the high and low points and wait for the price to reach a key level (such as the 38% or 50% zone) before taking a trade in the direction of the retracement (for example, in the case of a bullish retracement, I take a long trade; in the case of a bearish retracement, I take a short trade).
6. My stop-loss (SL) level will be the size of the range.
7. The take-profit (TP) level varies according to my risk appetite.

Is this correct?

Yes, this is it.

Note however, I added the ceiling and floor rule to help filter out getting stopped out. So if there is a candle higher or lower prior to the range, that could be where you put your stop loss. Then that will be included to the total length of the range. It is not 100% but it helps one from getting stopped out.

I made a video on the previous post showing it.

1. Choose time frame
2. Measure range
3. Check if there is a floor or ceiling prior to the range
4. If none, it will appear after the range, meaning we have to be patient (or choose a different pair)
5. Then use the fib
6. Then make an order. Stop loss beyond the floor or ceiling, tp, 1 to 1 r or 1.6 or 2.6 depending on your appetite.

But you can partials or move break even the moment you're 1r. Although, in my case, i just set the trade, then go back to work and check it before the next exchange opening.

Hello, I wanted to know what is the exact time of the candle, does it have a specific time
Can this indicator help?.........this is Candle Breakout
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14467435
Let me know, thank you

Hi, there is this indicator in trading view by butoiki on fx sessions, that on default mode should show all the opens and closes of the exchanges.

I am not familiar on how to use your indicator, is that in mt4? I dont really use indicators much now a days except for fib, but im willing to learn. :3

Specific time i use based on +8 gmt.

1. 8 to 9 am
2. 1 to 2 pm
3. 3 to 4 pm
4. 4 to 5 pm
5. 730 to 830 pm
6. 9 to 10 pm
7. 1 to 2 am
8. 5 to 6 am

The one i love best is 8 to 9am since its mornig for me. And 4 to 5 pm since its the first one i learned of for Tokyo box. Then there's 9 to 10 pm ny exchange. Just choose one or all. Hehe. Let it fit your lifestyle.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/u528wHkg

example with the indicator on. So you can remember the sessions.

Here is same close of ny trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LiE0GToJ

sydney open didn't reverse. Or it reversed above in the close of ny. These times in pretty much asleep so i just focus on tokyo, london and ny

Here is today's
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yxP4MWcJ

Let me do yesterdays whole trading

sydney open and close didnt reverse.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/3Sytp4xX

Tokyo open no trade for me, tokyo close here is one
https://www.tradingview.com/x/d6HqtW9u

London open, no trade for me at close
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YWHRr9bT

Ny open and close really good resulrs
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Mbl7MLEK

So these are.the times. Rr more than 1 to 1. Over all rr positive for the day.

Correction, that other one was actually sydney open. Ny close had no signal

Note also yesterday was powel day.

Note:

Get to know your pair. If your pair is euro based. Its probably a good idea to start trading at london so the range is bigger.

If its asia based, then tokyo atleast.

If ausy pair, then atleast in ausy time.

And you can trade everything at ny time.

Close of sydney trade.

Same rules.

1. Measure the 15m range
2. Use the fib to measure the pierce
3. Enter on .38 on the reversal direction.
4. Target 1, 1.6 or your own subjective design.
5. Then chill.

Thank you for your time, I will definitely check this weekend

No worries. This method, in a way should be called volume range breakout because it works in a timeframe where institutional volume moves.

And for now these are the only times I know. If you know more, you can have more opportunities.

My favorite pair to trade at my favorite time.

1. 5pm +8gmt or when tokyo closes.
2. 15 min range as viewed by 5 min candles
3. I use fib to retrace the range
4. It pierced up then went down
5. Because im at grocery. So i cant kept tabs, set break even plus 1 and let it be.
6. Break even plus 1 or tp.

Doesn't matter. Rules met. Trade done.

Cool strategy. It will fit my schedule since I work 9-5 and can only trade the Tokyo session during my spare time

Is this correct? Considering the range of the Tokyo session

A LOT, not ALOT. No such word.

Hi,

https://www.tradingview.com/x/DpR3OWmL

Here.

Yesterday's tokyo session on uj.

1. Time at 8 am
2. Measure the 8am to 815 am candles
3. Wait for pierce in top or bottom
4. Then put fib opposing the direction of pierce
5. Put order on .38 away from the pierce.
6. Sl the size of the range
7. Tp the size of the range atleast for 1 to 1

Euro thiS morning

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ox8mJ87O

1. 8am wait for 15m range to form
2. Wait for pierce
3. Measure range with fib in direction opposing the pierce
4. Take 1 to 1, or to 1.6

A note on brokers. You probably should focus on brokers that have very small spreads. Or factor in commissions.

I.e. this pepperstone. Its euro after the spread is kinds like oanda with the spread.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/c5unF7HY

Euro

Rules

1. Measure the 15 min range of 930 to 945 pm
2. Price breaches
3. Make fib
4. Take the 66% opposing the breach if price returns
5. Hold until 1 r or when price reaches -1 standard deviations

Good trade euro this ny. Gave us 5r.

Custom fib using -3 to 3. .33 to .66. 1 and 0. 50% isnt considered

Hi Sovy,

where do you come from?

Hello.

Euro morning

5 to 6

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KUHcIlho

Sydney open

1. Get 15 min range
2. Observe bar that pierces
3. Take order 1/3rd of the range opposing the pierce
4. Target 1, 2 standard diviation

730 830

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZI5JQhCf

1. Get 15 min range
2. See if next bar pierces up or down
3. Take reversal of the 3rd bar opposing the pierce at fib 33 and target 1, or 2 standard deviation.