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US100

Unemployment claims in the US surprised with an increase. In the first reaction, US100 is rising after the reading.

1. Unemployment claims: 261k Expected: 235k Previously: 232k.
2. Continuing claims: 1757k Expected: 1802k Previously: 1795k.

The very large surprise in the increase in applications for benefits may mean that the unemployed in the economy are increasing rapidly, but the drop in continuing applications reflects still strong employment in the economy. After the reading, the market reassured itself that Fed rates are unlikely to be raised in June.

The market is pricing a Fed pause in June with a 72.5% probability after the claims reading. The odds of a 25 bp hike fell about 6%, to 27.5%, compared to yesterday's forecasts.

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EURUSD

1. US indices finished yesterday's trading higher. S&P 500 gained 0.62% to 4,294 points, Dow Jones moved 0.50% higher to 33,833 points and Nasdaq 100 added 1.27% to 14,484 points. The Russell 2000 dropped 0.41%, as investors were taking profits after a good session the day before.
2. Asian stock markets are poised for their second consecutive week of gains, buoyed by the prospect of economic stimulus in China and the S&P 500's transition into a bull market.
3. Japanese markets bounced back from a two-day downturn - Nikkei climbed 1.66% to 32,174 points and Australian stocks also rebounded after a three-day decline - S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.11%.
4. South Korean stocks have hit their highest point since June of the previous year - Kospi gained 1.25%.
5. Indices from China decreased by around 0.25%
6. European futures point to a flat opening of the European cash session today, DAX futures are traded 0.06% lower at 16,014 points.
7. The Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year on Year (YoY) remained as expected at 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY fell to -4.6%, lower than the forecasted -4.3%.
8. The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda stated that the bank is implementing policies to achieve a stable 2% inflation rate.
9. A spike in US unemployment claims to the highest level since October 2021 indicates a softening labor market, which lowered the expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated for a prolonged period.
10. Despite the S&P 500's return to a bull market, an analyst from Bank of America has stated that the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic.
11. Analysts at Bank of America believe that as long as inflation remains high globally and particularly in the US, the EURUSD is likely to remain weak. Currently, the carry trade is also applying downward pressure on the euro.
12. Saudi Arabia reportedly threatened the US with economic repercussions last fall due to oil price reductions, according to the Washington Post.
13. Precious metals trade mixed - gold trades flat, silver gains 0.15%, platinum gains 1.25% and palladium jumps 0.18%
14. Binance.US has halted USD deposits and warned of a potential pause in fiat withdrawals in response to the "extremely aggressive and intimidating tactics" employed by the SEC and intended to safeguard customers and the platform.

EURUSD chart - according to BoA a sustained rally in EURUSD would necessitate a change in the Federal Reserve's stance, Interval H1.

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JAP225

After a two-day decline from a 33-year peak, Japan's Nikkei share average rebounded on Friday. The Nikkei index surged 1.61% to 32,149.76 by midday, recovering nearly 4% from Wednesday's 33-year high. Index is on track to complete a nine-week advance, marking its longest winning streak in over five years. Since June 2, it has climbed nearly 2%, extending its advance since April 7 to 17%.

From the fundamental perspective, Nikkei performance is boosted by Japanese GDP data, which showed a growth at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the first quarter of the year, surpassing the earlier estimates of 1.6% made last month.

The two consecutive days of decline were likely just profit-taking from investors after a solid period of index appreciation. Now, with the indexes rebounding, it is a positive sign that bulls are still in power and set the stage for a continuation in the next week. Today, significant contributors to the Nikkei's performance included Uniqlo brand owner Fast Retailing, which jumped 3.85%, and air-conditioning maker Daikin Industries, which rose 3.09%.

The Nikkei 225 (JAP225) index is currently showing a strong bullish momentum, with its price standing at 32,159 points. This comes after the index rebounded from a significant support level at 31,500 points, which indicates a bullish sentiment in the market. If the bullish momentum maintains its strength, we could see the index aiming to test the recent peak at 32,770 points. However, it's important to consider potential downside risks as well. If the bullish momentum weakens, we could see a correction towards the next lower level of 30,600 points.

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Palladium

Palladium prices have been falling for quite some time - the main reason being an expected oversupply of the metal next year. One of the world's largest producers of the metal, Russian giant Nornickel estimates that the palladium market will reach a surplus of up to 300,000 ounces in 2024 against an estimated 200,000 ounce deficit in 2023. The company accounts for 40% of global palladium production. Among other things, palladium is used to reduce exhaust fumes in automobiles.

According to Nornickel, 80% of the world's palladium supply is absorbed by the automotive industry, where demand for palladium is expected to grow by 1% y/y in 2023. On the other hand, however, electric cars where palladium is not used because they do not emit exhaust fumes are growing in popularity. In addition, manufacturers are increasingly replacing palladium with cheaper substitutes. Increased consumption of palladium in 2022 and 2023 has resulted in the sale of accumulated stocks by automotive companies, but these sales are expected to end in the second half of the year as companies potentially empty their inventories. Nornickel also expects 180,000 tons of surplus nickel in 2024.

PALLADIUM is slipping towards $1,300 per ounce and has fallen below the 71.6 Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from January 2016. From this level, declines may deepen even to $1100 per ounce where previous price reactions are located.

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Oil

Oil is taking a hit at the beginning of a new week. Brent (OIL) and WTI (OIL.WTI) are trading around 1.5% lower at press time. Recent OPEC actions and announcements provided only a short-term boost for prices and oil quickly resumed pullback. Brent dropped and reached the lowest level since the beginning of June today. There is no strong, clear reason behind the move lower today. However, some news surfaced recently that may support bears today.

Iranian authorities made some upbeat comments on possible agreement between Iran and the West that may lead to a lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil. However, it should be noted that negotiations have been going on for years now and similarly positive comments did not lead to any breakthrough earlier. Apart from that, Goldman Sachs slashed its December 2023 Brent price forecast from $95 to $86 per barrel, citing increased recessionary fears as well as higher output in Iran, Venezuela and Russia as reasons.

Taking a look at OIL chart at H4 interval, we can see that the price launched this week's trading with a bearish price gap and moved lower to test the $74 support zone. At first it looked like bulls may manage to halt sell-off there but selling resumed and OIL slumped below. Brent is quoted in the $73 per barrel area now and trades less than 1% higher month-to-date after gaining as much as 8% MTD earlier. The next support zone to watch can be found in the $72.50 area and is marked with local lows from mid-March, early-May and early-June 2023.

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Quadruple Bottom on Oil?

Crude oil continues its declines in another week of June. In addition, new Goldman Sachs forecasts for crude have emerged. GS is now pointing to a level of $86 per barrel for Brent at the end of 2023, against a previous forecast of $95 per barrel. Why the forecast cut?

1. Higher production from Russia and Iran offsets the impact of an additional cut from Saudi Arabia
2. The market should be balanced after the AS cut, but there will not be a deficit
3. GS expects higher production growth this year and next year from countries outside of key OPEC members
4. Uncertainty about China

Technically, however, there is a potential signal of a quadruple bottom. The price would still have to fall a few tens of cents, but this is a very important test for oil. Usually the fourth test of support leads to a breakout, so the emergence of very negative news on, for example, demand from China or the continuation of hikes by the Fed could lead to a breakout from the consolidation. On the other hand, if oil survives this test, it seems that the trend should eventually reverse and lead to a breakout to price ranges, probably to levels of $80-90 per barrel.

The recent lows associated with the triple/quadruple bottom formation are near $71.5 per barrel. If a rebound from this area were successful, then, with a breakout of the neckline near $78 per barrel, the range of the formation would point to around $85 per barrel, where the retracement of 23.6 currently holds.

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US100

Wall Street futures are expected to open higher at the beginning of the new week, with investors eagerly awaiting important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on interest rates later in the week. The US500 index futures rise a 0.3% increase, reaching 4320 points, while the US100 (NASDAQ 100) trades 0.5% higher at 14630 points, which is close to this year's all-time high of 14680 points.

The financial markets are currently dominated by a positive sentiment, as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve to announce a pause in their cycle of interest rate hikes after a string of 10 consecutive increases. This sentiment has led to an appreciation of higher-risk equities, while the performance of major currencies has caused the dollar index to decline. The US100 (NASDAQ 100) has experienced modest gains, indicating a potential continuation of the bull market trend.

The US100 index, currently priced at 14630 points, is displaying a strong upward trend, suggesting a robust bullish momentum. This is supported by the bullish signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, with higher highs indicating a strong upward movement. The next potential resistance zone for the US100 index may be around 15000 points. However, if the price fails to reach this level a retracement to around 14300 points or even further down to 14000 points is possible.

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BTCUSD

Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a range of 25,300 to 26,000. The key support level is at 25,300, which has shown significant reactions in the past few months. If the bullish momentum fails to sustain this level, a potential further decline may be expected.

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GBPUSD - Chart of the Day

Economic outlook
The robust labor data suggest that the UK economy is doing better than predicted despite high inflation and rising central bank interest rates. The job report indicates that workers are demanding and receiving pay awards, which, coupled with businesses' higher pricing intentions, risk of a wage-price spiral. As such, the Bank of England may decide to continue raising interest rates to fight inflation.

Post-publication of the labor data, GBPUSD has seen a modest rise. The pair is currently hovering near the highs, although the jump only roughly halves the losses from the previous day. Given that markets have already priced in about 100 bps worth of future rate hikes, this report doesn't significantly change that. Therefore, the gains for the pound may be more limited if solely reacting to the labor data. Additionally, GBPUSD performance will be highly reactive to the upcoming US CPI inflation report and the tone set by the Federal Reserve. The possibility of a future rate hike in July by the Federal Reserve may support dollar and could put a downward pressure on GBPUSD currency pair.

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Ripple

Cryptocurrency RIPPLE gains 5% as fintech lawyers await to get access to internal SEC correspondence in court later today. Ripple has been fighting the SEC for nearly 2 years according to which the cryptocurrency is a security, and the company behind it has committed illegal sales. The cryptocurrency has proved surprisingly resilient to the crypto crisis of recent days.

1. The dossier due to arrive in court today is expected to include messages exchanged by SEC members after former director Hinman's speech. The one contrary to Gensler's position indicated that cryptocurrencies could be commodities. Potentially inconsistent comments could undermine the SEC's authority and increase Ripple's chances of winning in court.
2. The Federal Trade Commission (CFTC) has long been in dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over whether cryptocurrencies should be considered commodities or securities. Over the years, there has still been no consistent position on the issue. This regulatory mess could be exploited by lawyers;

A look at the chart

In recent weeks, which have been very weak for crypto, the price of Ripple has managed to rise unexpectedly. The chart below shows the divergence between Binancecoin (yellow chart) testing the December minima, and Ripple - this one has been gaining since late May. In contrast to Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies. The market is taking a positive view of the chances of winning in court, with the judge allowing evidence of the Commission's internal correspondences into the case despite the SEC's protest.
RIPPLE is climbing in the vicinity of 0.56 USD, and potentially breaking the psychological resistance of previous peaks at 0.57 USD may open the way to 0.68USD where the price may encounter the first significant resistance (past price action).

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Gold - Chart of the Day

Gold traded lower yesterday after the publication of CPI data, with its price falling to $1941 per ounce. Today, gold traded calmly as investors await the Fed's interest rate decision later today. While many expect the rates to remain unchanged, some anticipate a more hawkish stance given the high core CPI, prompting some to exit the gold market. This has added to the caution in the market, causing a slide in gold prices.

From a technical standpoint, gold is still viewed as being in a bullish uptrend channel, suggesting also a potential upward movement in the medium time frame. However, recent price action has been rejected several times from a short-term descending trend line, suggesting that gold might be at a crucial turning point. Support is around the 1920 - 1940 area, where the 100-day SMA currently lies. A break below these levels could unfold further bearish momentum. On the upside, if gold can manage to move above the 2000 level, it could suggest a resumption of bullish momentum.

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USDJPY

USDJPY is on the move today with Japanese yen being the worst performing G10 currency while US dollar is one of the top performers. USDJPY is up almost 1% on the day. USD strengthening is driven by yesterday's FOMC meeting, which in spite of a pause in rate hikes, turned out to be very hawkish. This is because the new dot-plot showed a median rate expectation at 5.6% for end-2023, an increase from 5.1% in March dot-plot. This also means that FOMC members see two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year while market expectations prior to the meeting were for one more hike yesterday or at the July meeting before ending the cycle. Hawkish message sent by Fed led to a major repricing in market expectations with swap market no longer pricing in Fed rate cuts this year.

This hawkish turn from Fed is not only supporting USD but also putting pressure on JPY. This is because it signals that divergence between Fed and BoJ policies will continue to grow. Bank of Japan will announce its next monetary policy decision on Friday but no change to the level of rates or other monetary policy settings is expected.

Taking a look at the USDJPY chart at D1 interval, we can see that the pair is trading in an upward channel. Pair broke above a local high from late-May 2023 and is now trading at the highest level since late-November 2022. USDJPY is approaching a mid-term resistance zone in the 142.00 area. Note that the upper limit of the channel can be found slightly above this resistance.

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Bitcoin Below $25,000

The mood of the cryptocurrency market is weak today, with Bitcoin starting to fall after yesterday's Fed decision and slipping from the $26,000 level to $24,800. Unlike the Nasdaq, crypto was unable to make up for the sell-off during Jerome Powell's conference.

Industry portals also point out that Binance's exchange-traded security fund-the so-called SAFU-has suffered significant losses because Binancecoin (BNB) and Bitcoin were the main components of its reserves-that have recently fallen sharply (especially BNB). Since the beginning of June, the value of SAFU was said to have fallen from $950 million to $861 million. The fund is to be used only in extreme situations for the exchange according to WSJ sources the exchange makes sure that its value is at an all-time high. Binancecoin is also losing today and has not been able to stay above $240.

Investors continue to withdraw their funds from the Binance exchange due to regulatory uncertainty and concerns about systemic risk. Since the Fed announcement, nearly one-fifth of the reserves in stablecoins (cryptocurrencies tracking mainly USD, used for purchases) have disappeared from the exchange.

The Bitcoin sell-side risk index is near all-time lows now. The indicator calculates the market's unrealized gains and losses to the so-called realized asset size, i.e. the prices investors paid for the BTC they bought. Relative to the total realized value, the total value of gains and losses is $391 billion, which is historically very low. The low level of the ratio has historically occurred during periods of depleting supply pressure and total market abandonment. In addition, Glassnode reported that the indicator was supported by a low reading of the volume index - RVT.

BITCOIN, D1 interval. The price has fallen below $25,000 and if the level is not recovered relatively quickly a test of the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement, around $21,300, will not be ruled out - in the vicinity of these runs also the so-called Realized Price average, i.e. the average of purchases of all BTC since the beginning of the trading history - this average has served as an important trend indicator in many previous cycles.

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US100

US100 index, currently trading at 15354 points, has shown strong bullish momentum by breaking a significant resistance level at 15220 points seamlessly. This upward movement also led to a break above the upward trending channel, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish trend. The next significant resistance level is around 15654 points. However, traders should be cautious as the recent rally may trigger profit-taking activities. In that case the index may decline to the last consolidation zone between 14500-14600 points.

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Oil

Brent (OIL) launched new week's trading with a bearish price gap as new on rising Iranian exports as well as cuts to Chinese growth forecasts created downward pressure on prices. OIL tested 200-period moving average at H4 interval this morning (purple line) but bulls managed to defend the area.

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AUDUSD
The Australian dollar is one of the worst performing G10 currencies at the beginning of a new week. While there was no major news coming out from Australia over the weekend, there was some worrisome news relating to China - Australia's largest trading partner. A number of large financial institutions - including Goldman Sachs, UBS and Nomura - decided to cut their 2023 GDP growth forecasts for China. Goldman Sachs explained its decision saying that fiscal and monetary stimulus in China will not be enough to generate a strong growth impulse.

China, 2023 GDP growth forecasts

1. Goldman Sachs: 5.4% vs 6.0% previously
2. Nomura: 5.1% vs 5.5% previously
3. UBS: 5.2% vs 5.7% previously

RBA minutes are scheduled for release tomorrow at 2:30 am BST and will be a potential mover for AUD. RBA delivered an unexpected rate hike at its latest meeting and traders will look for a hints on whether this means that more rate hikes are coming. There is a feeling that recent upbeat data as well as the more hawkish stance of other central banks will encourage RBA to deliver another rate hike at July meeting as well.

Taking a look at AUDUSD at D1 interval, we can see that the pair halted an advance after reaching the 0.6885 resistance zone recently. Pair experienced a massive, almost-7% rally in the first half of June and given how steep those gains were, a correction or a period of profit taking cannot be ruled out. However, should the ongoing pullback deepen, the first support level to watch will be zone marked with 38.2% retracement of the upward impulse launched in October 2022.

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Will ECB end rate hikes in July?

EURUSD is pulling back today, following a steep rally that took place last week. Last week's advance was driven by ECB rate hike on Thursday. ECB President said at a post-meeting press conference that further tightening will likely be needed.

According to Gediminas Simkus, chief of Lithuanian central bank and ECB member, a rate hike in July should be delivered and it is not a matter of discussion. However, Simkus also said that ECB is nearing rate peak and it is too early to declare what decision will the Bank make at a meeting in September.

Money markets are almost fully pricing-in a July rate hike and an over-60% chance of a similar move in September.
EURUSD is pulling back noticeably today and is looking towards an important support zone, marked with 61.8% retracement of the last major downward impulse. This area was tested on Friday already but bears failed to break below. Moreover, a lower limit of the Overbalance structure can be found slightly below and further strengthens a support in the area.

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AUDUSD

1. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considered its last interest rate hike as a finely balanced decision.
2. There is increasing frustration due to the lack of stimulus in China.

The Australian dollar (AUD) has become more volatile following the release of RBA minutes and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) interest rate decision. The RBA's minutes revealed a balanced stance in votes regarding interest rates, which dampened expectations of further tightening in the near future. However, the RBA remains committed to achieving its target range for inflation. Furthermore, the AUD's performance has been influenced by concerns about the Chinese economy's recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. As investors worry about China's economic outlook, the Australian dollar, often seen as a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan, has declined. The absence of new policy stimulus from Beijing has led to frustration in the markets, affecting the AUD's performance alongside a drop in the Chinese yuan.

From the technical perspective, AUDUSD price is 0.6% lower at 0.6810. The price attempted to break above a resistance level at 0.6887 but faced rejection, resulting in a retracement towards the support zone around 0.6793. Currently, the price consolidates and if it fails to hold above this 0.6793 level, the next support zone can be found around 0.6707. On the other hand, if the price manages to bounce back, it can potentially come back towards 0.6887.

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Silver

USD strengthening and ETF outflows pressure silver prices

Silver is trading over 2% lower today, with the move being driven by significant strengthening of the US dollar triggered by better-than-expected US housing market data for May. Solid data makes the market think that another rate hike may be looming in July, given recent hawkishness of the Federal Reserve.

Apart from the strong US dollar and high US yields, we are also observing ETFs selling out their gold holdings. Silver ETFs sold more than 650 thousand ounces of silver yesterday while gold ETFs sold almost 30 thousand gold ounces, what was the fifteenth consecutive day of ETF sales. ETF sold almost 1% of their total silver holdings since the beginning of the year.

From a technical point of view, we can see that silver price has been pulling back since June 9, 2023 when price tested 50% retracement and 50-session moving average. Local lows from June 5 and June 15, which can be found slightly below 23.6% retracement, are being tested today. Next important supports in-line can be found in the $22.60 area, or local lows from May 25, 2023, as well as in $22.20 area, marked with 200-session moving average. Divergence with EURUSD points to silver being excessively oversold but it should be said that silver tends to be an underperformer at times precious metals struggle.

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USDCHF Technical Analysis

USDCHF pair is currently rising and is expected to breach the 0.8996 (50 SMA in Yellow) level and attack 0.9093. However, caution is advised for upcoming trading as breaching the last level will cancel the negative effect of the double top pattern and lead the price to start a new bullish wave. The targets for this wave begin at 0.9032.

Therefore, due to the contradiction between the technical indicators, it is recommended to stay aside until the price confirms breaching 0.8996 resistance or breaking 0.8956 (25 SMA in Blue) support. It should be noted that breaking this support will push the price to resume the bearish trend and head towards 0.89071 followed by 0.88869 areas mainly.


Price action signal

1. Sell with SL above the LUW (long upper wich) candle at 0.9007
2. TP 1: 0.8956
3. TP 2: 0.8901

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