Losing hope that profitable trading can be achieved

Finally some good replies and not like the first replied i got. I asked my self, why i even bother posting this in the internet

Anyway thanks for the tips, here is a bit more info on my struggles and why i feel how i feel.

In all these years i have tried many trading systems and this is usually how it goes.

If is a rigid system i do well a few weeks then i get some bad weeks and i'm up a few dollars after placing like 50 trades. So the equity curve is like a Channel.

Then i started question the system and i say, i need to back test this. So i go to MT4 load X month and i start testing and to my surprise some month works great and some month works awful, then i say this is totally random some month are +20% and others are -18% i don't really see an edge or extremely small one,

This is when they next step come which is me realizing of course it won't work all the time, markets are not always on the same state. a breakout strategy will not work on a month of range market etc so i go Manual trade.

Same thing, it goes well a few weeks/month then it start bad and i start questioning what I'm doing, do these strategy have an edge?
So i go back manual back testm but is not that simple, as usually i know which pairs are strong or weak, what is the market conditions for that day but don't have that info for when i'm back testing on a chart from 2019. So i start looking a rigid system where there is no personal decision on when to enter or when to exit so i can backtest and have proof that with time i have an edge, and it start the loop all over

I have been loading some strategies on Trading view and tested for a year and they are profitable on specific timeframe, specific pair but others that strategy is not profitable at all. So again i start doubting if profitable is something achievable or we are just having luck geting the right market for the right strategy.

If i trade Parabolic SAR strategy on AUDUSD on 15 char from the entire year i would be profitable, but if i do that same strategy on a USDCHF 15 Min char i would be in red. So i question is really the strategy or is just luck that i chose the right strategy for that specific market in place.

Regarding my strategy i don't have a go to since all i tried failed in some way as i mentioned above.

I do trade smaller timeframes, i have from 1 Min chart up to 4hr. and everything in between. I tried breakout, pullback, EMA bounce, trendlines break, trendlines and a few more. Like you said, technical is not my problem. consistency and believing is.

I have looked at most systems published on Trading View. It's funny how the publisher of the system has a back test to show some or even great returns and when I look at the auto back test for my self it's always at break even or in the red. Does not matter the time frame or the instrument. Don't bother. Most are just simplistic variations of the same thing. I guess the biggest problem with most such systems is that they always keep you in a trade. With the trend, against the trend, does not matter and that is why the end result is break even and a lot of wasted time.

It's not just the trading view strategies, all strategies i have tested that were systematic (A-B-C repeat) has this problem. It depends what stage of the market you are. So they can work great one month and awful other month. And it make sense, if you have a RSI (buy high-buy low strategy) will work great on range markets month and awful on trend markets. same apply with breakout or trend follow strategies, they will work great those month that there is a trend and they will work badly on month. So this lead me to believe that the path is to don't have 1 and just trade what the market is doing. but this lead to NON systematic approach and this takes a lot of experience and confidence that what you are doing is correct even with multiples losses in a row and that is hard to achieve without data to back your actions.

I guess I can extend the don't bother statement to pretty much everything available on the internet. Youtube, sites like this, trader blogs and so on. In my experience rarely anything of value ever comes for free. That is why about a year ago I decided to develop my own method based on my personal observations and statistics.

I was actually thinking of starting a thread where I ramble about how full of BS the retail trading sphere is. It's full of gurus out there claiming to have done this and that and they will share their secrets with you for free or 500 or 999 dollars. How much of a trader is someone who has several books, does a trading course, runs a YouTube channel and so on? All this takes time and effort. And if I can spend 4 hours a day trading profitably with potentially uncapped profits, why would I bother to do anything else other than enjoy my life?

Further more, let us assume that the algos running for the big boys are evolving constantly to outsmart the other algos and live traders. Why would any profitable trader give away his "secrets" to large groups of people for any amount of money thereby risking his method to be deconstructed and fed in the next update. It's easy to sell BS and dreams and that is why we get flooded with BS systems, magic indicators and so on.

If you are talking about an automated strategies (trading robots etc.) then I have almost nothing to say about it. I tried to automate my trading but after some time I realized that it will not work for me. I could make a trading robot that would show amazing profits for the last year, but for the last 2-3 years it showed a loss. On one currency pair it would make profit, on another a loss... And at some point I realized that I won't be able to trade real money with that robot because it is absolutely random. I don't believe in trading robots, a least at these that are people selling.

So you are not thinking about robots and trading systems anymore. That's a move forward.

With manual trading I would say that having a strategy means that you know what you are doing while opening trades. That's why at some point I removed all the indicators. The chart is everything you need. I remember the time when I was trading using RSI and at some point before opening a trade I started to think "Okay, so I'm going to enter a trade because some indicator shows me that pair is oversold...". At some point I realized that I have a strategy, I'm buying when RSI oversold, but in reality I don't understand what's going on. So these trades looked like the trading system, the only difference is that now I took trades manually. So now I'm a trading robot. Waiting for RSI to drop to take a trade, but now I'm looking at the chart. And some times when RSI is oversold I'm not taking the trade because I don't like the chart. After some time I'm at the point when I realize that my decisions based on the chart, so why I even need these indicators?
Remove all the indicators, you already know that they don't work. You should be able to read the chart.

What can I say based on my own experience:
1. I think you are now at the point when you are trying to find a "strategy" with set of rules that will make consistent profit. Unfortunately it doesn't exist.
2. Strategy means you know what you are doing. If you have a hobby then you should know this feeling. Let's say you like to make cocktails. You can perfectly make one kind of cocktail, you know what you are doing and you know that it will be great when you make it. Now someone asking you to make another cocktail and gives you the recipe. Can you make it? Yes. Are you comfortable to make it? Not really. Do you know what you'll get at the end? No. Will it be good? Don't know... Same with trading, you should trade when you understand what's going on, you are looking at the chart and you know what to do. Go back through your trades, your winning trades. Find something that you really understand. Not something that just closed above the level and bla bla bla. If you are trading manually long enough you should find some trades.
3. Choose currency pairs to trade. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF, USDCAD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, GOLD(XAUUSD).
4. Timeframe. 1H 30M 15M 5M. You can use only 15M. Don't trade 1 minute chart.
5. Back test doesn't work. You know it yourself. When you back test you already know which pairs are strong or weak, what is the market conditions for that day. Your words. If you have no time time watch real time data, analyze the market at the end of the day. Everyday at the evening open the charts and look what happened during the day. Is there is something you like? Something obvious.
6. Don't try to make money at this point. Your main objective right now is to find something you really understand.
7. Here is a 15M chart of EURUSD. Do you see something you like?

Thanks,

Yeah i think this is the right approach, i have been looking a rigid system that tells me exactly when to enter, when to exit, when the setup is good etc and that does not work, this would be ideal so you can back up with the backtest results when you are in doubt, but what i realize is that it may work for a few weeks/month on specific pair or specific timeframe but it will not be consistency profitable as it will fail miserably on other pairs or timeframes.

In all these years i have way too much technical in my mind and sometime that confuse me. The chart above for example. I would say that overall is a downtrend of course, so we would look for sells as i should be follow the overall trend but at the same time i feel the down move is too over extended at this point and there is a strong level holding so would hesitate to sell that close to support. The thing is, when do i realize a have an edge? that's killing me, after being up 20% to go back to 3% is hard to keep trading the same recipe when giving back 17% profit.

At the same time i do need to have a "recipe" (set of rules) that i can master so i avoid doing whatever feels like that day so i can get consistency on what I'm doing.

You are talking like all these analytics
I'm not talking about what would be in future. Let's start with something not very difficult. Right now, on this chart, do you see something where you would take a trade for some reasons? A place where you would took a trade and say exactly why you took it.
I would took that trade because:...
Little tip. If you traded breakouts then you should find something.

Agree. At the end it all comes down to you. You must do the work. Of course you can watch some videos on YouTube, but not for a long time. If you are following someone for a long time than you just don't want to do the work yourself. At some point you have all the knowledge. You need to apply them.

Off topic:
I recently wrote an article analyzing the trading of one of the youtubers.
In short. On YouTube, a person shows that he has 3 million in profits from April 1, 2021 to April 14, 2022. However, if we look at his trades history for this period, we will see that during the streams, when he trades live, he actually has a loss of 100 000 usd. You can read it here link.

if you trade breakouts you would wait for that level i was talking about to break and sell. That is what i would do. Not sure if that's the breakout you are referring to.

Yes, but can you actually recognize it on the chart?
I don't really like to use past charts, but that what helped me a lot. Let's say you take a trade. Why? Can you say exactly why you took that trade? It shouldn't be like "I think it is a support so I will sell". With the chart above, that's what I see.
- I took a sell trade due to the fact that we heave a clear support level, price touched it 4 times then we have a clear move down and a close below this support. The price was in consolidation and now moved out of it.
That is something that works for me, I'm looking at this chart and I really like what I see. But you will see it differently, so you have to find what you understand.

You should be able to see what you like at the chart history. Something that you really understand. Otherwise what you expect when you are entering a trade? Let's say you are driving a car on a highway with 100km/h on a summer tires. Now the fog appears and you see nothing in front of you. Will you still drive with 100km/h? No, because you know that it's dangerous you see nothing in front of you. So you drop your speed to 5 or 10 km/h. You know what to do. (But we know that there are people who can't even recognize the fog. Listen to the news: "The fog caused a huge crash...". It's not the fog, it's the people who are still driving 100 km/h for some reason).

The main point. You must know what you are doing. You had profitable trades. Can you post a chart and point exactly why you took a trade? Otherwise why are you taking trades? What you expect?

Market is out to get you and everyone. You're not special. Don't give up. But you can take a break. Every time I consider myself just not cut out for this, I learn something new, my perspective changes, I grow. You know, little chickens have to break the shell to hatch. Little sprouts have to break through the crust to see the light. You'll get there.

I get it though and can empathise with your struggle.

Don't lose hope...take a break, re-center yourself, do more research, develop a more comfortable trading strategy and accept that everything is a learning process! I make frequent ongoing, profitable trades and I'm not brilliant. You can do it too!

Hi booker21,
I´m completly in the same place as you.
At this time, i have dedicated more than 10,000 hours and not a single light of consistency on my trading.
I doubt if it could be achived a way of life with this.
Regards

there are prop firms with no time limits.. so you can trade at your desired speed. D1 is a good choice - less noise.

As far as back-testing is concerned, the systems you've tested so far that appeared to be successful in backtesting:

Was it symbol/pair specific, or do the technical criteria apply to anything? If it was for any symbol, were the results relatively consistent with different symbols?

How many setup samples did these backtests have? If not tied to a specific ticker, how many samples per ticker?

In your backtesting, did you record data about maximum drawdown and maximum profit between entry/exit signals? This can be huge because it allows the potential to analyze different entry/exit strategies on setups, and it also shows what potential profits vs drawdowns these things have, regardless of exit strategy. Sometimes technical signals/setups themselves are not bad at all, but can be made better/worse depending on exit strategies and such.

If relative currency strength is your thing, there are ways to historically analyze that but it's very tedious and may require multiple monitors and a decently powerful CPU, depending on what kind of charts/etc you like to use to compare relative currency strength. Using MT4, dragging the window size to cover multiple monitors, putting 28 H4 stochastic oscillator boxes (my chosen method of appraisal), 28 H1 oscillator boxes, 28 M30 oscillator boxes, and using syncscroll indicator on everything, and of course having the normal big full featured charts on whatever timeframe synced up with that as well, I can historically measure relative currency power, at least up to a certain point in the past. It was extremely tedious to setup though, uses a lot of CPU, multiple monitors to avoid going insane (don't have to switch charts at all, except if I want to look at the full featured big chart for a symbol). It's also tedious to go through each 30 minute bar, each hourly bar, etc. and update the appraisal of relative currency strength, moving forward in time. However, as more samples are collected, any consist performance trends found in that data are priceless. Some people prefer recent candle dashboards instead of stochastics, or whatever other indicator they may prefer as a quick way to compare currency power relationships. All can be done this way.

Do you prefer multiple timeframe setups or pure single chart setups?

Are you only interested in specific R/R and winrate ranges, or are you open to accepting anything that demonstrates good overall performance? Like low R/R, high winrate, extremely high R/R, low winrate, or anything in between. It should be noted, that if max DD/profit potentials between entry/exit signals are recorded, different management protocols can sometimes have similar overall performance, but drastically different R/R and winrate results.

Do you measure profit factor?

Do you know when high impact calendar events are in the backtests? Are they specifically avoided or handled differently?

Have you specifically found any methods or overall areas of technical analysis/edges that you find particularly attractive even now, that really fit how you like to do things? Compared to everything else, how much testing and experimentation have you done with them?

One more thing I'd like to add: In any of the things that successfully backtested overall, did you ever notice any large discrepencies in performance over certain time periods? Over how many samples did these discrepencies last? Did you attempt to look for evidence that would suggest why these occured, which may be predictive of conditions that are favorable/unfavorable for the system?

Sometimes I felt very depressed because of losses, but over time I came to understanding that they are inevitable on the initial stage. Some people think that it’s possible not to lose, but it’s not real. Successful traders lose and burn depos too.
You can’t avoid losses completely but you can change your attitude to them and it will help you to trade better.
If you recently faced big losses, stop trading for some time. Distract from it. Don’t try to win back. Get back when you are ready. Try to be more rational, less emotional and never risk a bigger part of your depo.
Think twice. You’d better miss a good opportunity to enter the market rather than enter incorrectly.