Price Action Trading (PAT) - Amplifying Market Insights | Page 78 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun 53,466 replies

Fun with raff's indicators 11 replies

Journal for my fun charts 43 replies

Attachments: Price Action Trading (PAT) - Amplifying Market Insights
Exit Attachments

Price Action Trading (PAT) - Amplifying Market Insights

  • #1,541
  • Jun 15, 2023 12:35am Jun 15, 2023 12:35am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} I would like to discuss trades with you rather than just giving signals. I will post my trades on EA after you share your position and thought process. This will be a healthy way for us to move forward and discuss this pair setup. By doing this, we can both learn more about the EURAUD pair and improve our trading strategies. We can share our knowledge and insights, and learn from each other's experiences. This will help us to become more successful traders. Thank You
Great post!
  • #1,542
  • Jun 15, 2023 12:38am Jun 15, 2023 12:38am
Hi Pat,
It would be nice to discuss trades with you. I mostly trade GU and EU.
ShemittahFX
  • #1,543
  • Jun 15, 2023 6:10am Jun 15, 2023 6:10am
USDCAD
LONG
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD 1D.jpg Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #1,544
  • Jun 15, 2023 6:26am Jun 15, 2023 6:26am
Quoting Surya108
USDCAD LONG {image} {image}
What makes you say that? Remember, the trend is your friend...
  • #1,545
  • Jun 15, 2023 6:38am Jun 15, 2023 6:38am
USDCAD

H1 is in a downside correction against H4

H4 is moving in same direction as D1 but D1 is also corrective as it is moving against W1 so there is the possibility of a move up

Personally i would not take this type of trade as TFs are out of alignment .
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #1,546
  • Jun 15, 2023 7:29am Jun 15, 2023 7:29am
Quoting pipfarm
usdcad h1 is in a downside correction against h4 h4 is moving in same direction as d1 but d1 is also corrective as it is moving against w1 so there is the possibility of a move up personally i would not take this type of trade as tfs are out of alignment .
thank you for your opinion
i will re analyse the pair
but definately one thing i learned from your post
if all tf's are in alignment it becomes a high probability trades

thank you again for giving your opinion!
  • #1,547
  • Jun 15, 2023 8:43am Jun 15, 2023 8:43am
Quoting pipfarm
USDCAD H1 is in a downside correction against H4 H4 is moving in same direction as D1 but D1 is also corrective as it is moving against W1 so there is the possibility of a move up Personally i would not take this type of trade as TFs are out of alignment .
4H coming back into alignment with D1 and D1 moving with W1 short
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #1,548
  • Jun 15, 2023 9:13am Jun 15, 2023 9:13am
Quoting Surya108
{quote} thank you for your opinion i will re analyse the pair but definately one thing i learned from your post if all tf's are in alignment it becomes a high probability trades thank you again for giving your opinion!
Yes but no all is as it seems.

H1 contains the swings, corrective and impulse of the H4 swing and H4 contains the swings, corrective and impulsive of D1

That is what is meant by alignment.

A lot of traders believe that if H1 and H4 are going in the same direction the are aligned that is the fast way to lose your money.

You must wait for H1 swing to come into alignment with a swing on H4 that is moving with D1 , you can use any three timeframes with a multiple of at least 4.
Follow The Markets Structure - Patience and Discipline
  • #1,549
  • Jun 15, 2023 9:33am Jun 15, 2023 9:33am
Quoting pipfarm
{quote} yes but no all is as it seems. H1 contains the swings, corrective and impulse of the h4 swing and h4 contains the swings, corrective and impulsive of d1 that is what is meant by alignment. A lot of traders believe that if h1 and h4 are going in the same direction the are aligned that is the fast way to lose your money. You must wait for h1 swing to come into alignment with a swing on h4 that is moving with d1 , you can use any three timeframes with a multiple of at least 4.
there's lot to learn here
thank you for making me feel it
will definately apply your idea in my trading
  • #1,550
  • Edited 10:56am Jun 15, 2023 10:13am | Edited 10:56am
the GBPUSD-GBPAUD situation is noteworthy.
aud/usd-short.
H1.
my general conclusion is that trading is much simpler than many people think.
  • #1,551
  • Jun 16, 2023 1:05am Jun 16, 2023 1:05am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} VIX is up today but lowest it ever was. If VIX goes up, s&p goes down. If s&p goes down dollar could go up, but also could go down. SPY penetrated one of the weekly highs of 2022 a few day ago, now it sits at the bottom of the April range. On a smaller timeframe we can see right now the dollar is going up, while the s&p is going down(inverse relationship), the vix is also going up. Historically if VIX is at a top a downfall will stop and market goes up. If VIX is at a bottom , markets will go down. And since some people plan for half a year,...
Aplogy for late reply, as was out the whole evening , dinner and party (aerly party, couldn't wait till Friday)
Here my thought in response to your statement (blue)

"VIX is up today but lowest it ever was. If VIX goes up, s&p goes down. If s&p goes down dollar could go up, but also could go down."

Based on trendline projected from the last 2 peaks, it seems like S&P has reached another resistance.
The VIX is strangely up.
This means that there are more puts being opened 23-30 days out and thus causing VIX to go up.
Protection is being bought.
No matter, it is important to realise that the risk-reward is now favoring the short side.

It is possible that we could see a market correction in the near future, as you suggest.
There are a number of factors that could lead to a sell-off in stocks, including:

Rising interest rates: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates several more times this year, which could put pressure on stock prices.
Inflation: Inflation is rising at its fastest pace in decades, which could erode corporate profits and lead to a sell-off in stocks.
Geopolitical risks: The military tension with China and the ongoing trade war between the United States and China are two major geopolitical risks that could weigh on stock prices.

If any of these factors materialize, it could lead to a sell-off in stocks that would push VIX up.
However, it is important to remember that VIX is not always a reliable indicator of future market movements.

As for the other three points, it is also possible that we could see the following:
The dollar could slightly up.
This is because the dollar is often seen as a safe haven asset, and investors may be looking to buy dollars in times of uncertainty.

The pound could stay over 1.26. This is because the pound is currently trading at a high level, and it may need to consolidate before it can make further gains.
However, it is important to remember that these are just my newbie predictions, and the actual market movements could be different.

And since some people plan for half a year, they also tend to psychologically sell it when half of the year is done(June), one could look at seasonal patterns of s&p 500 for the last years here

The market is currently in a state of flux.
There are a number of factors that could lead to a market correction, including rising interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
However, it is also possible that the market could continue to rise, based on seasonal patterns of the S&P 500 in recent years.

On the other hand, there are also some factors that could support the market.
For example, the unemployment rate is at a record low, and corporate earnings are still growing.
Additionally, seasonal patterns of the S&P 500 in recent years suggest that the market could be ready for a turn.

In the past five years, the S&P 500 has typically fallen in the first half of the year and then rallied in the second half.
Overall, the market is currently in a state of flux.
It is too early to say for sure whether the market will correct or continue to rise.
However, we should be aware of the risks and potential rewards of investing in the market.


"Also the bond market is up today so there is a bit of a flight to safety."

The fact that the bond market is up today is a sign that investors are looking for safer assets.
This could be due to a number of factors, including rising interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
When investors are feeling uncertain about the future, they tend to move their money to safer assets, such as bonds.

A flight to safety is when investors sell riskier assets, such as stocks, and move their money to safer assets, such as bonds.
This can happen when there is uncertainty in the market, such as during a recession or a financial crisis.



"Also the bond market is up today so there is a bit of a flight to safety. No one can know for sure but am expecting the following scenario:
1) Vix up 2) market correction down 3) Dollar slightly up 4) Pound stay over 1.26, but not reach for newer highs until next week.
Tell me if i described it wrong(Alot of this is retail stuff!) i love to get corrected."

Your description of the market is generally accurate.
You identified the key factors that could lead to a market correction, and you made reasonable predictions about how different assets might react.
However, it is important to remember that these are just predictions, and the actual market movements could be different.

" I think they will hike again due to not tackling demographic issues, the politicians/FED are not dealing with underlying issues. I think Larry Williams describes it better."

As for your specific comment about politicians and the Fed not dealing with underlying issues, I agree that this is a problem.
The Fed is focused on the short-term, and they are not always able to see the long-term consequences of their actions.

The Fed is walking a tightrope.
It needs to raise interest rates enough to control inflation, but it also needs to be careful not to raise them so much that it hurts the economy.
It is too early to say what the Fed will do, but it is clear that they are facing a difficult challenge.

Politicians are also focused on the short-term, and they are often more interested in getting re-elected than they are in solving long-term problems.
This is a major challenge for our society.
People need to find a way to get politicians and the Fed to focus on the long-term, so that we can address the underlying issues that are causing problems like inflation.



END NOTE :
My trading focuses on indexes and gold, and read a lot of financial data every day to keep up with the current market scenario.
The current market conditions are complex and there are a number of factors that could lead to a flight to safety.

In addition to these factors, there are also some positive signs in the market.
For example, the unemployment rate is at a record low, and corporate earnings are still growing.

Additionally, seasonal patterns of the S&P 500 in recent years suggest that the market could be ready for a turn.
In the past five years, the S&P 500 has typically fallen in the first half of the year and then rallied in the second half.

The market is unpredictable.
The market is constantly changing. The factors that are driving the market today may not be the same factors that are driving the market tomorrow.
The market is affected by a variety of factors.
.......and Don't try to time the market............... (this will lead to FOMO)


Best Wishes

PAT Chiko
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,552
  • Jun 16, 2023 2:27am Jun 16, 2023 2:27am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Aplogy for late reply, as was out the whole evening , dinner and party (aerly party, couldn't wait till Friday) Here my thought in response to your statement (blue) "VIX is up today but lowest it ever was. If VIX goes up, s&p goes down. If s&p goes down dollar could go up, but also could go down." Based on trendline projected from the last 2 peaks, it seems like S&P has reached another resistance. The VIX is strangely up. This means that there are more puts being opened 23-30 days out and thus causing VIX to go up. Protection is being bought....
Did you use ChatGPT?
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #1,553
  • Jun 16, 2023 2:46am Jun 16, 2023 2:46am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Did you use ChatGPT?
Further to that do you know that expiration of $2.2 trillion notional $SPX/ $SPY contracts today during the quarterly expiration will be the largest June OpEx on record.
Occurs four times per year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
Wtch the market and some may take a break from the market. This move will can lead to increased volatility.
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,554
  • Jun 16, 2023 2:50am Jun 16, 2023 2:50am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Did you use ChatGPT?

Lol.
Outdated Data
The most recent training data is from 2021 of September.

Nobody in sane mind would like to use them.

BTW, if you use GPTChat, Good luck and all the best
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,555
  • Jun 16, 2023 2:58am Jun 16, 2023 2:58am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Further to that do you know that expiration of $2.2 trillion notional $SPX/ $SPY contracts today during the quarterly expiration will be the largest June OpEx on record. Occurs four times per year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Wtch the market and some may take a break from the market. This move will can lead to increased volatility.
Aha! Thahnk you, so the expiration simply adds volatility and are usually not used for any direction bias? I figured how traders use this.. what are significiant amounts and usual amounts that might affect forex?
cheers!
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #1,556
  • Jun 16, 2023 3:08am Jun 16, 2023 3:08am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Lol. Outdated Data The most recent training data is from 2021 of September. Nobody in sane mind would like to use them. BTW, if you use GPTChat, Good luck and all the best
i saw Aussi comment and figured something is up..
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #1,557
  • Jun 16, 2023 3:08am Jun 16, 2023 3:08am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Aplogy for late reply, as was out the whole evening , dinner and party (aerly party, couldn't wait till Friday) Here my thought in response to your statement (blue) "VIX is up today but lowest it ever was. If VIX goes up, s&p goes down. If s&p goes down dollar could go up, but also could go down." Based on trendline projected from the last 2 peaks, it seems like S&P has reached another resistance. The VIX is strangely up. This means that there are more puts being opened 23-30 days out and thus causing VIX to go up. Protection is being bought....
Is that an example of having a good network, bro?
Damn, i'm same as the FED, cannot see more than the next rate day
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #1,558
  • Jun 16, 2023 3:19am Jun 16, 2023 3:19am
Quoting Pat Chiko
{quote} Further to that do you know that expiration of $2.2 trillion notional $SPX/ $SPY contracts today during the quarterly expiration will be the largest June OpEx on record. Occurs four times per year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Wtch the market and some may take a break from the market. This move will can lead to increased volatility.
Are you referring to Option contract rn bro?
Can you please shed some light on how exactly, the expiration of an option contract will increase volatility?
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #1,559
  • Jun 16, 2023 3:57am Jun 16, 2023 3:57am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Are you referring to Option contract rn bro? Can you please shed some light on how exactly, the expiration of an option contract will increase volatility?
YES. Option.

Options contracts expire, market participants required to either buy or sell the asset at the strike price.
This can lead to large movements in the market, as market participants adjust their positions to meet their obligations.
Traders who are holding losing positions may be forced to sell their currency, which can cause the trend to reverse.

Price could simply consolidate in the next two weeks.
Bears will load up, but could get p*ss as it could break out right after consolidation.

For S&P the price at top end of the rising channel.
A pullback is healthy here.

Who knows...
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
  • #1,560
  • Jun 16, 2023 5:14am Jun 16, 2023 5:14am
EJ/UJ


Scalping short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 002.jpg Size: 44 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 009.jpg Size: 74 KB
I come from the future.
Karen X Mas Bonus 2025 All Time Profit: $15,104
0 traders viewing now