East Coast Cable Sleepover Strategy

5/14 was a no trade

5/15 Base 1.9850 @ 2315 EST
Sell 1.9890 Stop 1.9930 TP 1.9850
Buy 1.9810 Stop 1.9770 TP 1.9850

Minnelli

5/15 no trade again sorry so boring. It does look like you would be long in trade if you did not have an order that expired like mine at 505EST.

I did mess around the last 2 nights with a similar strategy:
I took the base price and sell order 20 pips above the base with a target of 40, then a buy order 20 pips below the base.

So last night was:
Base: 1.9850
Sell 1.9870 stop 1.9910 TP 1.9830
Buy 1.9830 stop 1.9790 TP 1.9870

Results for this little strategy:
5/14 +40
5/15 +40

Minnelli

Hi Minelli,

At the forex tsd site is a thread called Hedgehog System & EA. It originated at sbfx forum and now one of the guys has his own website. They have put a lot of work into it.

From memory the strategy is very similar.

Thanks for the tip - I will go track it down.

5/16 Base 1.9780 @ 2320 EST
Sell 1.9820 Stop 1.9860 TP 1.9780
Buy 1.9740 Stop 1.9700 TP 1.9780

Alt Strategy
Sell 1.9800 Stop 1.9840 TP 1.9760
Buy 1.9760 Stop 1.9720 TP 1.9800

Remember all trades expire in 6 hours.

Minnelli

I'm testing with you, using your original strategy. Let me know, through backtesting if the 40 or the 20 is better.

Mike - actually I'm thinking that 40 may be too wide. Some of the trades are just missing but I don't want it too small either than the market doesn't have any room to expand and contract. It may have to be a number based on maybe a percentage of a daily/weekly range.

Are there any EA guys out there that could get this in an EA. I haven't played around much with EA's lately. I also don't want this to be a curve fitting exercise. If 35 or 40 pips turns out to be okay, than we can roll with it.

I think this will also work with other pairs but just don't have the bandwidth to dedicate this coming week.

I'm also not sure what to call this type of strategy so research is a little more difficult - is this a reverse breakout or something? That name really doesn't paint the picture and head fake probably isn't perfect.

Also, I looked at the Hedgehog system but that still moves in the direction of the market generally by buying and selling at the same time. My idea is still sell as the pair moves up slightly with the idea it will fall back.

Any help is appreciated...

Minnelli

"Bounce and Build" comes to mind; the market bounces from the entry to the take profit and builds the account balance.

Since you are testing 20 and 40, why don't we try 30? Sell when 30 above with a 30 target and 30 stop loss. Buy when 30 below with same stop and target?

Mike - if you have the time to post it here that would be great - the more the merrier. I'm only testing on On*d* because I can automatically set my stops and profits at 40, so it takes me less than a minute to setup my trades. Plus I'm doing it with a really small amount of money. If you can track the 30 trades here as well, that could be good fro everyone.

As for the 20s - my alt strategy I'm really not following the trade back to the base, but back to the other order. So that won't give us a good sample. I would love to have an EA that we could backtest and plop in our own numbers like 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 and see the results. If they all end up pretty close (i.e. no fitting) that could ad some fuel to our fire

Have a good night - going to bed now. Appreciate you joining in the discussion.

Minnelli

PS thanks for the tip about bounce and build I will try and find more info...good name...

Well at least we have a system that isn't losing money

5/16 - no trade

No trades whether it was 20, 30 or the original 40 - GBPUSD stayed in a narrow range last night.

What do you guys know about the Bollinger Bounce? It has some similarities to what we are trying to do. At least the concept when the pair gets high enough in a certain period it generally falls back to average.

Minnelli

If reference to EA help - it looks like Jason has a similar thought/strategy in mind. Any EA guys that can help may want to post over here:
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=30114

Thanks - Minnelli

5/17 23:00 EST -- Base 1.9745
Sell 1.9785 Stop 1.9825 TP 1.9745
Buy 1.9705 Stop 1.9665 TP 1.9745

Minnelli

5/17 no trade on our initial 40 pip trade - boring...but it missed the sell by only a couple around 0400EST.

So I think the 30 pip trade would have worked. Sell 1.9975 TP 1.9745

I know my 20 pip trade worked for 40 pips and would have worked for 20 pips as well back to the base price. But I'm taking the 20 above and below and reaching for 40, which worked again.

Sell 1.9765 TP 1.9725 +40pips

Minnelli

Summary:
Original 40 pip strategy: Sell 40 above, Buy 40 below, Target +40, Stop -40
4/26 +40
4/29 +40
4/30 +40
5/1 -40
5/2 +40
5/3 0
5/6 0
5/7 0 - no trade
5/8 0 - no trade
5/9 -40 stopped out at 860
5/10 0 - no trade
5/13 0 - no trade
5/14 0 - no trade
5/15 0 - no trade
5/16 0 - no trade
5/17 0 - no trade


Alt Strategy: Sell 20 above, Buy 20 below, Target +40 Stop -40
5/14 +40
5/15 +40
5/16 0 - no trade
5/17 +40

changing the perameters is fine, but careful you dont start curve fitting.

Try this EA. The strategy is trading the envelope channel during low volatile period. Use 5min chart. But according to the creator, the EA won't work with IBFX broker, because IBFX filter their data.

Thanks - I will give it a look tomorrow night.

Minnelli

If you hit around 40%, John Murphy,a 30 year veteran trader, says that you are hitting par for a futures trader.

So congrats so far you are at least 25% hit and success rate.

Need to get to bed so I would take a 40% win rate and I will look at the EA tomorrow. I apprecaite you guys joining the thread.

5/20 Base 1.9745
Sell 1.9785 SL 1.9825 TP 1.9745
Buy 1.9705 SL 1.9665 TP 1.9745

Alt Strategy (20 pip)
Sell 1.9765 SL 1.9805 TP 1.9725
Buy 1.9725 SL 1.9685 TP 1.9765

Minnelli

5/20 no trade - again

alt strategy -40 : the buy was picked up at 725 and was stopped at 685

the 30 pip strategy would have lost as well - but I did not trade it.

Better luck tonight...

Minnelli