Ninja Update (USDJPY)

Hi,

I believe FF is one among the ,fun and most visited platform for Traders who seek profound knowledge that obscure their trading performance when in state of torpidity ,emotional and in state of indecisive action that may in one way or another cause loss of their trading capital,
i know that for fact ,i have been there and despite of serious progress that I've made i found that it is so selfish if i can't help someone who is still stacking there drowning every penny of their trading capital just because they lack sufficient knowledge that could save them money

I remember these times, bad times if one may call it when I was constantly loosing money, FF was my home, it was of great consolation to see traders here making money in these times i couldn't, but what was the reason for me to stick here, right in this forum and not just any other forums, their post straddled my feeling, their willingness to share and learn, criticism, philosophical fights, their battles of knowledge, was quite outstanding.

That did not end there some traders took this battle of knowledge too way far and ignored each other so that they can show their true ego, but not necessarily some did that to find tranquility

Why am I saying all that, this will take me to opalescent reason why i started this discussion

1.Ninja update (usdjpy)
the real intent behind this platform is to invite all kind of traders to discuss their views on usdjpy and remember only usdjpy
2. To create family ( a strong Ninja family) that will help traders to learn and make money to live a comfortably life just like everyone else
3. I know trading is frustrating so from time time traders might misunderstood each other, i beg each and every one of you after you cool off , kindly apologize and let trading life take it's coarse.
4. With no guarantee expect this thread to be one of the high impact thread that will last in history of forex factory, because it is coming from outstanding innovative and living genius in this century, it's juvenile to say that but that's what I ought it to be

welcome everyone for day to day discussion about Ninja (USDJPY) and i wish each and every one of you The very best life can offer
TonyT.

I would like to start the discussion with the slippage that happened on yesterday CPI Data:

Why did it happen this is what I think

Slippage occurred simply because of possible intervention, if that didn't happen it would have sent NInja ( straight to 140.+) Territory with just one single spike that so bad for JPY isn't it , of course it is

Past is the best predictor of the Future, remember this territory (trading zone) was the zone of all possible hike 140.+ To 150.0+ japanese bank intensively intervined, why would they not yerstaday? No body talk about it but that doesn't mean it didn't happen, remember am talking about possibility here i might be wrong , but wrong in such away that people will understand what really happen during price slippage PP.

Will there be possible slippage again on Fed announcement today? That what i really want to discuss with you guys

If you closely take a look at current price of Ninja (usdjpy)
It's pretty clear that it might with stand the hike, but be warned don't take unnecessary risk, because it might happen.
The blue line mark the possible take profit of tonight wonderful magic ,it might happen

the target reached succefully, regardless that fed skipped the rate hike , knowing direction of which the market will go that is our main focus , Am done for today and see you guys

It's genius in work here.
TonyT.

good analysis

Hi Yead
Thanks so much for your positive reply let's keep doing what best amigo

We might trend low , possible area of tp is 140.080
I'll wait for confirmation and sell

the reason for why i want to go bearish is , regardless that the spike was bullish on ninja but the comments from the BOJ is hawkish , if well combined with TA it give possible sell signal CIO
TonyT.

However look out for 4hr candle stick it might close high before we start trending down

BOJ
JPY alert: The clear signals to watch for imminent Bank of Japan FX yen intervention

1. BOJ intervention in the yen forex market will be preceded by clear signals - here's what they are

Financial authorities in Japan, specifically the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan have been making 'verbal intervention' statements in recent months as the yen has depreciated. Authorities do not want the currency to decline rapidly and use the comments to slow its drop.
However, at some stage, if the yen falls too far for comfort, there will be actual intervention, in the form of selling USD/JPY. There may be some cross-selling but the bulk of intervention will be in USD/JPY.
In October 2022 the Ministry of Finance instructed the Bank of Japan to sell USD/JPY, actual intervention. In the weeks leading up to this there were warnings from authorities. These have gradations. I posted back in early June a guide to how these warnings escalate:

1. The 4 phrases from Japanese officials to listen for signalling imminent yen intervention

I'm adding a little more now, as we are getting closer to levels of concern.
Watch for words like "undesirable", "rapid", and "not reflecting fundamentals". For example:

1. sudden/abrupt/rapid movements in exchange rates are undesirable
2. markets that aren’t reflecting economic fundamentals are undesirable

As an escalation of statements, watch for "one-sided", "excessive", and "speculative moves". For example:

1. FX moves have been speculative
2. yen movement is a speculative activity
3. yen moves have been one-sided, moves have been excessive

Further escalation is indicated by the warning of action to come, and is the time to be prepared for actual intervention:

1. won’t rule out any options
2. ready to take action at any time
3. we could conduct stealth intervention
4. we are on standby

The next step is what is referred to as a "rate check". This is when the Bank of Japan contacts FX dealers at banks and asks for a dealing level in USD/JPY. Dealers quote the Bank a two-way price, a bid, and an offer. This is a bit of a charade as everyone knows what's going on, the BOJ is intervening by making a threat of intervention. While this is going on dealers will contact other banks and sell USD/JPY heavily, in effect 'front running' the BOJ. This is what the BOJ wants to happen, it's a form of intervention without buying any yen and selling USD (from reserves).
The next step is actual BOJ USD/JPY selling. This follows a rate check, maybe by weeks, maybe by days, maybe by only hours. Instead of just asking for a two-way price, i.e. checking the rate, the BOJ will get the price and then deal on it, selling USD/JPY to the dealer. the banks dealer will then get out of that position as best he or she can, all the while trying to sell extra because the BOJ is in the market slamming USD/JPY lower and there is money to be made. the effect is cascade of USD/JPY selling, driving it lower. Intervention.
Japan's Finance Ministry's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Kanda. It's the MoF that will instruct the Bank of Japan to intervene. And Kanda is the official responsible for doing so. You'll often see me referring to Kanda in posts as "yen intervention guy". Other references to him include Japan's 'top currency diplomat'.

Source ( forex .com)
Tony

Folks,Here you go again

Hello everyone
Do you think the intervention will be soon ?

Myself i think not anytime soon until we have our plate around 148.00+ area
What is your opinion on that?
i have an open position and ama hold it until 148.+ Or something.

It's a really perfect time to make some bucks$ on this currency pair.

Ama hold it until they intervene