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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,801
  • May 19, 2023 8:49am May 19, 2023 8:49am
I was heavily bullish going into this opex, but I did have IWM May19/22 $170 calendar puts, in for 13c, they have a chance of small profit today if we keep sliding.
Also Qs $320/316 bear puts, those @ 23c debit, likely total loss. Other than those, I am now flat. I might put toe in water on some bearish index trades for the debt ceiling game, although I think the risk that they don't, at the last minute, raise the limit, is very small. Maybe enough drama there to feed the bears, though.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,802
  • May 19, 2023 12:19pm May 19, 2023 12:19pm
I closed all SPX call trades but I would stayed in some if it weren't for JPOW talking. Looks like they could get a run back to SPY 420 into the close.....
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...compare volume to oi and see it's almost all 0dte trading
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,803
  • May 19, 2023 12:56pm May 19, 2023 12:56pm
here into the close I filled a set of May 22 XSP $415/410 bear put verts for 20c...looking for a lot of shit talking re: debt ceiling over the weekend and a pull back Monday

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,804
  • May 21, 2023 11:27am May 21, 2023 11:27am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_U...ceiling_crisis

When they took it to the wire end of July 2011, spoos fell 1325 to 1025 +/-, a fast drop of > 20%. If they don't work out a DC raise and USA starts defaulting, Fitch et al dings the credit rating, it'll be much worse. We could easily see the Oct 2022 low taken out in just a matter of a week or 2....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,805
  • May 21, 2023 11:53am May 21, 2023 11:53am
penciling in Jun02 a possible Black Friday, the following Monday Jun05 even blacker. If it comes down to that, maybe Treasury will say they found some extra $billions under the sofa cushions. Anyway, I think this time might be different than all the other dozens of times the DC has been raised. You have many in the House who actively want to see the US default....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,806
  • May 22, 2023 1:18pm May 22, 2023 1:18pm
Quoting The Fool
penciling in Jun02 a possible Black Friday, the following Monday Jun05 even blacker. If it comes down to that, maybe Treasury will say they found some extra $billions under the sofa cushions. Anyway, I think this time might be different than all the other dozens of times the DC has been raised. You have many in the House who actively want to see the US default.... {image}
Can’t Biden simply invoke the 14th amendment and force them to pass the budget? I should caveat this by saying I know almost nothing about US constitutional law.
  • #18,807
  • May 22, 2023 8:50pm May 22, 2023 8:50pm
Quoting clemmo17
{quote} Can’t Biden simply invoke the 14th amendment and force them to pass the budget? I should caveat this by saying I know almost nothing about US constitutional law.
...it would be litigated all the way up to the SCOTUS, and they would likely shoot it down, and all that would take months probably. With a friendlier SC, might be a good thing, because that would de facto eliminate the debt ceiling drama maybe forever, but no, JB not gonna try that.

I think there will be a "deal" reached between JB & McCarthy, but it still has to clear the House, and that might be rife....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,808
  • May 22, 2023 9:41pm May 22, 2023 9:41pm
Quoting The Fool
here into the close I filled a set of May 22 XSP $415/410 bear put verts for 20c..
...yeah this didn't work
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,809
  • May 24, 2023 8:47am May 24, 2023 8:47am
will likely hold past Memorial Day, I foresee DC drama dragging into next week, and the closer it gets to Jun01, the more likely we see some bigger slides in the indices

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...8?d=1684872405
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,810
  • May 24, 2023 7:17pm May 24, 2023 7:17pm
the power of trading in combos....100% risk free trade.....actually will go on for a small credit, 0 downside risk, 0 tail risk, needs $10k margin, max profit around $9k with a good finish at expiry...substitute 10x XSP call verts @ same position as the SPX call verts shown.....

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,811
  • May 24, 2023 7:37pm May 24, 2023 7:37pm
Quoting The Fool
will likely hold past Memorial Day, I foresee DC drama dragging into next week, and the closer it gets to Jun01, the more likely we see some bigger slides in the indices .....
Yeah idk, Ima be reluctant to hold anything (or much) short over the weekend, they will likely wrap it up next week. Scenario is they negotiate a deal over the weekend and put it to vote next week early. I could be wrong. We'll see.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,812
  • Jun 6, 2023 10:00pm Jun 6, 2023 10:00pm
SPX dbl cldr for FOMC week...similar trade in RUT. I'll not be surprised to see indices calm to sideways running into the Fed day, 6/14. Big bear mover there will be a surprise hike, but slim chance of that. I'd reckon a bullish reaction to the pause or skip.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,813
  • Jun 6, 2023 11:06pm Jun 6, 2023 11:06pm
I MIGHT like to have more flys in my diet. The broke wing shown has a downstream cheap put vert to guard the bw tail risk. Risk is $120 to net max $3k - what's not to love? I'd likely shoot the vert in XSP, maybe a day or so longer than the fly.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,814
  • Jun 7, 2023 8:50pm Jun 7, 2023 8:50pm
Small caps breakout ala RUT has been impressive and I'd say will keep going to 1950 maybe 2000, but I think my 1930 target looks good for the morning of FOMC day.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,815
  • Jun 9, 2023 12:40pm Jun 9, 2023 12:40pm
DJIA and SP500 close up to end the week. RUT closes down for the day. Crowded trade? I’m going to wait it out. Fed will skip. Then a meltingly hot summer.
  • #18,816
  • Jun 9, 2023 7:42pm Jun 9, 2023 7:42pm
Quoting clemmo17
DJIA and SP500 close up to end the week. RUT closes down for the day. Crowded trade? I’m going to wait it out. Fed will skip. Then a meltingly hot summer.
yeah the RUT divergence has been a little odd.....a few days back it was up when /NQ and /ES were flat to down. Next Tues-Wed should bring some noise, but I'm not so sure of anything. The better/bigger of my setups is in RUT, so I'd like to see it rally well above 1,900 by midweek. CPI, then FOMC - Tues-Wed....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,817
  • Jun 12, 2023 8:02am Jun 12, 2023 8:02am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CPI, then FOMC - Tues-Wed....
...Softening CPI helps the Goldilocks bid. Strapping in for a volatile week....maybe.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,818
  • Jun 13, 2023 4:35am Jun 13, 2023 4:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...Softening CPI helps the Goldilocks bid. Strapping in for a volatile week....maybe.
The easy call, the Goldilox dream, is inflation is dipping, the Fed is pausing, and stocks are rallying....at least for a day or two anyway, all I need.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,819
  • Jun 13, 2023 4:50am Jun 13, 2023 4:50am
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...gonna be interesting, especially if inflation stays sticky. Some are predicting money mkt fund rates approaching 10%. Why bother with stocks?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,820
  • Jun 13, 2023 5:34pm Jun 13, 2023 5:34pm
I need Jerome to carry the mail for me tomorrow.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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