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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #16,921
  • Jun 9, 2023 7:32pm Jun 9, 2023 7:32pm
Quoting bistolis
Wicks indicating that bulls are winning most likely{image} If historical tendencies are any indication, probably the dow will continue this uptrend until the close of today. Unless I am mistaken about this. So far this is my impression of this pattern
Hi Bistolis

Do you use the 30 minute chart as your big boss? (as opposed to the 60 minute) do you know of any rules for this or is it down to personal preference?

Also, Just wandering if you can explain a bit more about what you mean by "historical tendencies" what period are you talking about?

Thankyou
  • #16,922
  • Edited Jun 11, 2023 2:12am Jun 10, 2023 2:45am | Edited Jun 11, 2023 2:12am
Quoting p1pThief
{quote} Hi Bistolis Do you use the 30 minute chart as your big boss? (as opposed to the 60 minute) do you know of any rules for this or is it down to personal preference? Also, Just wandering if you can explain a bit more about what you mean by "historical tendencies" what period are you talking about? Thankyou
I am using multiple timeframes. mostly what you see on my chart. if those dont make sense then I will go to higher frames.
What I noticed is that many times when a trend starts on a Friday it keeps on going until the end of day. But thats just what I think and I didnt bother researching the past. It didnt happen yesterday. as usual I would have more success predicting if I would just flip a coin
  • #16,923
  • Edited 9:07am Jun 11, 2023 8:46am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting bistolis
Wicks indicating that bulls are winning most likely{image} If historical tendencies are any indication, probably the dow will continue this uptrend until the close of today. Unless I am mistaken about this. So far this is my impression of this pattern
Wicks indicating that bulls are winning most likely

Not so. bistolis. Wicks show that PRICE has reached a level where sellers are waiting to sell. If there are more buyers than sellers, PRICE will continue to go up until the sellers outnumber the buyers. Where this is, only those with Order Book knowledge know, or think they know. The reverse is true for Tails.

The Strat Shadow gives a better indication since it is POSITIVE and UP on all 3 of your time frames.

A more conservative entry is to WAIT for PRICE to CLOSE above the M15 Range.

All indices were whipsawed on Friday morning until the M15 range was cleared.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,924
  • Jun 11, 2023 9:06am Jun 11, 2023 9:06am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} I am using multiple time frames. mostly what you see on my chart. if those don't make sense then I will go to higher frames. What I noticed is that many times when a trend starts on a Friday it keeps on going until the end of day. But that's just what I think and I didn't bother researching the past. It didn't happen yesterday. as usual I would have more success predicting if I would just flip a coin
I would have more success predicting if I would just flip a coin

Just a reminder, bistolis:

Nowhere in these 2 threads does PASR instruct to predict the Future. Not even Elon Musk, Jeff Bazos, Buffet, Trump, AI, Nostradamus etc., or our own NASA Rocket Scientist, Dr. Joe, can (could) predict the Future so why try?

Trying to predict the PROBABILITY of where PRICE is likely to go creates a sub - conscious bias in the trading mind which, more often than not, will drain your trading account and confidence.

PASR instructs to keep an OPEN trading mind and TRADE WHAT YOU SEE and, in the case of trends, follow the Strat Shadow along with Dr. Joe's very SIMPLE approach.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,925
  • Jun 11, 2023 11:36am Jun 11, 2023 11:36am
Quoting Strat
{quote} Wicks indicating that bulls are winning most likely Not so. bistolis. Wicks show that PRICE has reached a level where sellers are waiting to sell. If there are more buyers than sellers, PRICE will continue to go up until the sellers outnumber the buyers. Where this is, only those with Order Book knowledge know, or think they know. The reverse is true for Tails. The Strat Shadow gives a better indication since it is POSITIVE and UP on all 3 of your time frames. A more conservative entry is to WAIT for PRICE to CLOSE above the M15 Range. All...
thanks for the feedback.
I saw the shadow being green on all timeframes and I was waiting for the right time to buy , which I highlight on M1. After price reached my target levels I exited the entire position and one partial along the way. While watching m1 I noticed that price was struggling to go lower and it created those wicks on the first 5 minutes or so of the open.
I try not to be biased and predicting as you say. my observation is probably coincidence and my mind trying to make sense out of chaos.
  • #16,926
  • Jun 12, 2023 6:07am Jun 12, 2023 6:07am
today was not a good day for me, not necessarily for the material losses (only 0.9%) but for the fact that they affected me mentally and I couldn't take the other opportunities, fear settled in me, today it was so trendy and I couldn't take advantage of it, I'm disappointed of myself, but in the end these losses make me see what I'm doing wrong and I see them as a lesson.
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  • #16,927
  • Jun 12, 2023 6:21am Jun 12, 2023 6:21am
Quoting DexterzxD
today was not a good day for me, not necessarily for the material losses (only 0.9%) but for the fact that they affected me mentally and I couldn't take the other opportunities, fear settled in me, today it was so trendy and I couldn't take advantage of it, I'm disappointed of myself, but in the end these losses make me see what I'm doing wrong and I see them as a lesson. {image} {image} {image}
You should use higher frames as well. Sometimes there are clues in higher frames as to how deep a retracement might go. And sometimes just accept the loss and jump back in at later spots.
I suggest to just focus on single instrument and get used to not have to take trades everyday. Many days you might not see any trades and that's ok.
Why did you quit on the index? It is much easier to create a trading schedule around the trading hours of a US index. If you live in eastern europe it is that much easier to trade an index in the afternoon or even late night. US open is at 16:30 for EET
  • #16,928
  • Jun 12, 2023 6:29am Jun 12, 2023 6:29am
Quoting DexterzxD
today was not a good day for me, not necessarily for the material losses (only 0.9%) but for the fact that they affected me mentally and I couldn't take the other opportunities, fear settled in me, today it was so trendy and I couldn't take advantage of it, I'm disappointed of myself, but in the end these losses make me see what I'm doing wrong and I see them as a lesson. {image} {image} {image}
Entering on the 1 instead of the 3 (wave off the shadow). Nothing wrong with that, just need to recognize the W:L off of the 1 will be much worse than off of the 3, albeit with many more opportunities. So, need to look at stats of trading off the 1 by itself, off the 3 by itself, and off the 1&3 both. Knowing those stats will make you comfortable with taking losses as well as re-entering on the 3 after the 1 loss.
  • #16,929
  • Jun 12, 2023 6:42am Jun 12, 2023 6:42am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} You should use higher frames as well. Sometimes there are clues in higher frames as to how deep a retracement might go. And sometimes just accept the loss and jump back in at later spots. I suggest to just focus on single instrument and get used to not have to take trades everyday. Many days you might not see any trades and that's ok. Why did you quit on the index? It is much easier to create a trading schedule around the trading hours of a US index. If you live in eastern europe it is that much easier to trade an index in the afternoon...
thank you bistolis for your response, I did not quit us30,I made a trade in the morning for 1RR and i use higher tf's for direction S/R and sometimes price action and ellastic band as well
  • #16,930
  • Jun 12, 2023 6:56am Jun 12, 2023 6:56am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Entering on the 1 instead of the 3 (wave off the shadow). Nothing wrong with that, just need to recognize the W:L off of the 1 will be much worse than off of the 3, albeit with many more opportunities. So, need to look at stats of trading off the 1 by itself, off the 3 by itself, and off the 1&3 both. Knowing those stats will make you comfortable with taking losses as well as re-entering on the 3 after the 1 loss.
do you mean that if I trade from the first wave of the strat shadow there are much higher chances of losing but at the same time more opportunities and if I trade from the 3rd wave I have higher chances of success because the trend is already established?
  • #16,931
  • Jun 12, 2023 7:22am Jun 12, 2023 7:22am
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} do you mean that if I trade from the first wave of the strat shadow there are much higher chances of losing but at the same time more opportunities and if I trade from the 3rd wave I have higher chances of success because the trend is already established?
I can't say why for certain, but yes, higher chance of success with fewer opportunities.

Here's an actual market truth that goes to efficient market theory. W:L + Edge = Risk:Reward. In our case here, edge is subjective, and R:R is variable based on the setup, so not useful in actual trading, but may help in swallowing losses without losing your focus/positivity.
  • #16,932
  • Jun 12, 2023 9:36am Jun 12, 2023 9:36am
Basic PASR is not really my forte. Unfortunately there was no big trend after the open
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EDIT I guess I was not paying much attention (or any at all)
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Not sure if it is or not a good entry. It was very choppy and I wasnt sure if it is moving sideways or reversing
  • #16,933
  • Jun 12, 2023 9:52am Jun 12, 2023 9:52am
Quoting bistolis
Basic PASR is not really my forte. Unfortunately there was no big trend after the open{image} EDIT I guess I was not paying much attention (or any at all) {image} Not sure if it is or not a good entry. It was very choppy and I wasnt sure if it is moving sideways or reversing
the support from your last entry would have worried me and I would not have entered,I'm not very good at basic pasr either, all of my winners are from trend trading
  • #16,934
  • Jun 12, 2023 9:59am Jun 12, 2023 9:59am
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} the support from your last entry would have worried me and I would not have entered,I'm not very good at basic pasr either, all of my winners are from trend trading
Anyway the dow is so choppy lately and I am being extra careful. Hopefully equities will start rolling soon. Up or down doesnt matter
  • #16,935
  • Jun 12, 2023 3:01pm Jun 12, 2023 3:01pm
Quoting DexterzxD
today was not a good day for me, not necessarily for the material losses (only 0.9%) but for the fact that they affected me mentally and I couldn't take the other opportunities, fear settled in me, today it was so trendy and I couldn't take advantage of it, I'm disappointed of myself, but in the end these losses make me see what I'm doing wrong and I see them as a lesson. {image} {image} {image}
today was not a good day for me, not necessarily for the material losses (only 0.9%) but for the fact that they affected me mentally and I couldn't take the other opportunities, fear settled in me,

Losses are just our cost of doing business - they always happen since there is no perfect system/strategy/black box. Always accept them making sure not to make them personal or to make you doubt yourself and your strategy. It's just like falling off a bike - get back on straightaway and start pedalling. The longer you dwell on your loss/losses, the worse it becomes as you provide food for your Little People. Take away their food and trade the very next set up.

Finally, you are not alone - it happens to everyone

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,936
  • Jun 12, 2023 3:06pm Jun 12, 2023 3:06pm
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} thank you bistolis for your response, I did not quit us30,I made a trade in the morning for 1RR and i use higher tf's for direction S/R and sometimes price action and ellastic band as well
bistolis's wise words:

I suggest to just focus on single instrument and get used to not have to take trades everyday. Many days you might not see any trades and that's ok.
Why did you quit on the index? It is much easier to create a trading schedule around the trading hours of a US index. If you live in eastern europe it is that much easier to trade an index in the afternoon or even late night. US open is at 16:30 for EET

Trading the US Indices will increase your profit consistency and profitability. Focus on ONE of them instead of wasting your time, energy and focus trying to find opportunities on 26 Forex pairs.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,937
  • Jun 12, 2023 3:12pm Jun 12, 2023 3:12pm
Quoting bistolis
Basic PASR is not really my forte. Unfortunately there was no big trend after the open{image} EDIT I guess I was not paying much attention (or any at all) {image} Not sure if it is or not a good entry. It was very choppy and I wasnt sure if it is moving sideways or reversing
Basic PASR is not really my forte.

All the US Indices were whipsawed again this morning. The long tails and wicks shouted STAY OUT - Basic PASR and all range methods are useless when under whipsaw conditions like this. WAIT until PA returns to normal size tails and wicks and THEN start looking for trades.

I waited until 7:19 my time (10:19 NY) before I traded NQ
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,938
  • Jun 13, 2023 4:31am Jun 13, 2023 4:31am
Quoting Strat
{quote} today was not a good day for me, not necessarily for the material losses (only 0.9%) but for the fact that they affected me mentally and I couldn't take the other opportunities, fear settled in me, Losses are just our cost of doing business - they always happen since there is no perfect system/strategy/black box. Always accept them making sure not to make them personal or to make you doubt yourself and your strategy. It's just like falling off a bike - get back on straightaway and start pedalling. The longer you dwell on your loss/losses,...
I have this quote on my monitor :
"When you get stopped out on your first entry, for whatever reason, if the set up and conditions are STILL in place then make A SECOND ENTRY",and I didn't take him into account, in all the trades the conditions were still good and I didn't enter, I'm not sad about yesterday's losses anymore, they were really a good lesson
  • #16,939
  • Jun 13, 2023 4:36am Jun 13, 2023 4:36am
Quoting Strat
{quote} bistolis's wise words: I suggest to just focus on single instrument and get used to not have to take trades everyday. Many days you might not see any trades and that's ok. Why did you quit on the index? It is much easier to create a trading schedule around the trading hours of a US index. If you live in eastern europe it is that much easier to trade an index in the afternoon or even late night. US open is at 16:30 for EET Trading the US Indices will increase your profit consistency and profitability. Focus on ONE of them instead of wasting...
the only thing I like about forex is the fact that they are more trendy than indices
  • #16,940
  • Edited 9:29am Jun 13, 2023 7:19am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} the only thing I like about forex is the fact that they are more trendy than indices
the only thing I like about forex is the fact that they are more trendy than indices

Having traded Forex since the 90s, I disagree and being "trendy" depends on the time frame and index you use.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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