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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #121
  • May 19, 2007 8:39am May 19, 2007 8:39am
The way I trade the USD/CAD is synthetically through the result of trading EUR/USD and EUR/CAD. The result is that you often enjoy the volatility in these two crosses, whilst limiting your overall exposure to the market, and if your getting it wrong, you simply hedge in the USD/CAD to reduce your actual exposure to nil, whilst you trade out of it on the synthetic components. Here's A heads up on one of those crosses.

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/6...d031507gr2.png

The EUR/CAD has fallen about 1000 pips now, and has reached the 61.8% retrace of its Oct 22nd - March 19th 1600 pip rally. Here's a chart (above) that I posted at OANDA (I wont post a link to the original thread cause I got an advertising warning last time I did ) when we were at that High.
Below that you have the support of the long term trend coming in currently at 1.4650. Im taking profits here, and am expecting considation in this cross before its decided whether the support will hold or break. I personally, think this cross is a great buy here, and expect that EUR/CAD will again head towards the 1.60 level after some consolidation around this level. As to where USD/CAD will go, depends on your opinion for the EUR/USD. Personally, I also think EUR/USD is heading for new terrortory on the upside, but looks as if it will test 1.34 on the downside first, and also consolidate before a substantial move up.

http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/1...fib618aec1.jpg
  • #122
  • May 19, 2007 8:41am May 19, 2007 8:41am
Quoting cesarnc
OK, double or nothing...

I'll use this one if USDCAD does not print 1.0300 this year
paris hilton. i dare ya.

no, i double dog dare you.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #123
  • May 19, 2007 9:15am May 19, 2007 9:15am
Quoting bravado
paris hilton. i dare ya.

no, i double dog dare you.
You're on, buddy.

Gonna love seeing bravado wearing a Paris Hilton avatar... Priceless.
  • #124
  • May 19, 2007 9:58am May 19, 2007 9:58am
Quoting cesarnc
You're on, buddy.

Gonna love seeing bravado wearing a Paris Hilton avatar... Priceless.
i meant you. you think you're tricky but you are not. can't wait to see YOU wearing the paris hilton avatar. that's right. let's see you smile then.

Quote
I'll use this one if USDCAD does not print 1.0300 this year

sucker.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #125
  • May 19, 2007 10:07am May 19, 2007 10:07am
Quoting bravado
sucker.


OH, I'm in pips countdown to see you swallowing it, buddy. I'm going to dance on your head first stab 1.0300, singing TOXIC, wearing no panties.

  • #126
  • May 19, 2007 10:57am May 19, 2007 10:57am
Quoting cesarnc


OH, I'm in pips countdown to see you swallowing it, buddy. I'm going to dance on your head first stab 1.0300, singing TOXIC, wearing no panties.

You sound awfully confident cesar, for a guy who still has a Britney Spears avatar up as a result of his last bet

I hope I'm still around here by the end of the year to see you girls change the avatars. Merlin must be very amused.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #127
  • May 19, 2007 11:23am May 19, 2007 11:23am
you guys should relax a notch, huh?

Yes, I'm awfuly confident. Could I be wrong? Certainly. Do I give a damn? No. Is it worth the shot? Look at your monthly chart and tell me.

IMO, USDCAD has one of the most beautiful long term trend among the currencies.

Add to that, increasingly strong fundies from CAD and mixed-to-negative-to-uncertain-to-FED-B.S. econ. data from the US.

Do not let last week dollar strength to mislead you. USD-index below 82.5 is bearish in the immediate term. Below 83 in the short term. Only above 84 it would delay USD from sinking in the medium-term. 84 was the level from which USD-index fell like a rock, this year.

Now, if I want to trade USDCAD, like I do, looking at last 5 years trend and these fundamentals, I'm so sorry, but one cannot even consider a trend reversal and be taken seriously at the same time...

I prefer the aggressiveness of calling USDCAD 600 pips downwards than either staying out or wasting my time trying to convince myself and the others that there's a trend reversal where there's none
  • #128
  • May 19, 2007 11:43am May 19, 2007 11:43am
As expected, USDCAD broke below 1.0930 (2006 low) and reached as low as 1.0875. Further fall towards 1.0800 can be expected next week. Near term resistance is at the down trend line from 1.1787 to 1.1167, and as long as the trend line resistance holds, down trend will continue. For long term analysis, USDCAD is in long term bearish movement, further fall towards 1.0500 is still possible in the next several weeks.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #129
  • May 19, 2007 11:46am May 19, 2007 11:46am
Quoting cesarnc
you guys should relax a notch, huh?

Yes, I'm awfuly confident. Could I be wrong? Certainly. Do I give a damn? No. Is it worth the shot? Look at your monthly chart and tell me.

IMO, USDCAD has one of the most beautiful long term trend among the currencies.

Add to that, increasingly strong fundies from CAD and mixed-to-negative-to-uncertain-to-FED-B.S. econ. data from the US.

Do not let last week dollar strength to mislead you. USD-index below 82.5 is bearish in the immediate term. Below 83 in the short term. Only above 84 it would delay USD from sinking in the medium-term. 84 was the level from which USD-index fell like a rock, this year.

Now, if I want to trade USDCAD, like I do, looking at last 5 years trend and these fundamentals, I'm so sorry, but one cannot even consider a trend reversal and be taken seriously at the same time...

I prefer the aggressiveness of calling USDCAD 600 pips downwards than either staying out or wasting my time trying to convince myself and the others that there's a trend reversal where there's none
I was just kidding! Also, I never said there was a yearly trend reversal or anything like that. If you go back a few posts you'll see me making fun of the guys who suggested a trend reversal because of a 150 pip rise

Heck, I never do consider trends with those kind of timeframes, they are incredibly hard to predict, and I trade H4 charts. A year is a very long time. Wars start, presidents change, terrorists blow things up... to be able to predict the sentiment of a market towards a particular currency for that long is more astrology than I can handle. It can go down for 3 years, or 5, or 1.5, how can you tell when the reversal will happen? Or that it won't? You may be very right, but I personally don't have enough capital to trade the kind of lots I am trading now and withstand 500 pip swings before a destination is reached. For this reason I, like you, do not care what happens in the extreme long term.

Nice discussion though, and I swear I was innocently joking. It's not every day we get a Britney Spears avatar dare
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #130
  • May 19, 2007 11:58am May 19, 2007 11:58am
Quoting Plutonite
I was just kidding! Also, I never said there was a yearly trend reversal or anything like that. If you go back a few posts you'll see me making fun of the guys who suggested a trend reversal because of a 150 pip rise

Heck, I never do consider trends with those kind of timeframes, they are incredibly hard to predict, and I trade H4 charts. A year is a very long time. Wars start, presidents change, terrorists blow things up... to be able to predict the sentiment of a market towards a particular currency for that long is more astrology than I can handle. It can go down for 3 years, or 5, or 1.5, how can you tell when the reversal will happen? Or that it won't? You may be very right, but I personally don't have enough capital to trade the kind of lots I am trading now and withstand 500 pip swings before a destination is reached. For this reason I, like you, do not care what happens in the extreme long term.

Nice discussion though, and I swear I was innocently joking. It's not every day we get a Britney Spears avatar dare
i know man... Of course I'm not as stupid as to sit and watch the money burning if I'm wrong. Question is, USDCAD has all it takes to sink, say, to 1.0300. A lot of swing going on inthe meanwhile, and we may be talking about thousands of pips, see? I profit the bottom and reload the correction all the way down

Can you even guess a figure for cable or euro or yen like you can in CAD? Gosh no!. And that's what pissing me off about them. Cable 2.1000 or 1.9000? Euro 1.45 or 1.20? Freaking impossible to tell by the charts.

But the glide in the USDCAD long term is just amazing not to take the chances.
  • #131
  • May 19, 2007 12:00pm May 19, 2007 12:00pm
Quoting Plutonite

Nice discussion though, and I swear I was innocently joking. It's not every day we get a Britney Spears avatar dare
Yeah, you're so happy because I got a picture from the good old days... If you get harsh on me again, I'm gonna put the recent trashy ones

  • #132
  • May 19, 2007 3:37pm May 19, 2007 3:37pm
Quoting cesarnc
you guys should relax a notch, huh?

Yes, I'm awfuly confident. Could I be wrong? Certainly. Do I give a damn? No. Is it worth the shot? Look at your monthly chart and tell me.

IMO, USDCAD has one of the most beautiful long term trend among the currencies.

Add to that, increasingly strong fundies from CAD and mixed-to-negative-to-uncertain-to-FED-B.S. econ. data from the US.

Do not let last week dollar strength to mislead you. USD-index below 82.5 is bearish in the immediate term. Below 83 in the short term. Only above 84 it would delay USD from sinking in the medium-term. 84 was the level from which USD-index fell like a rock, this year.

Now, if I want to trade USDCAD, like I do, looking at last 5 years trend and these fundamentals, I'm so sorry, but one cannot even consider a trend reversal and be taken seriously at the same time...

I prefer the aggressiveness of calling USDCAD 600 pips downwards than either staying out or wasting my time trying to convince myself and the others that there's a trend reversal where there's none
good points.

i have other pairs i'm working well with at the moment.

this pair(usdcad) is good to keep my eye on from time to time. among few other pairs.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #133
  • Edited 9:09am May 20, 2007 8:33am | Edited 9:09am
"Short" and medium term trends are down: 1 week, 4 weeks, 3 months. See attachments.
I think it's time for a small retracement, though. About 100 pips at least.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: u-cad_1wk_2stdev.jpg Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: u-cad_4wk_2stdev.jpg Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: u-cad_3mo_2stdev.jpg Size: 48 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #134
  • May 21, 2007 3:47am May 21, 2007 3:47am
USDCAD bus driver changed gear from 3rd to 4th.

If he's not worried about the state of the breaks, neither am I

  • #135
  • May 21, 2007 4:27am May 21, 2007 4:27am
what happen to CAD now it will happen to USD in next days,but when i don't know!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #136
  • May 21, 2007 5:08am May 21, 2007 5:08am
Some fundi behind CAD

Quote
The exception to the meager volatility in the market was in USDCAD. On the back of strong economic data and firm energy prices, the Canadian Dollar has surged. The CAD hit a near 30-year high against the US dollar on Friday and is continuing its rally today. The pair is down about 45 pips from last week’s 1.0888 close. According to some analysts, the tight labor market, strong home price growth, and elevated energy prices makes it likely that the Bank of Canada's next move will be a hike. If the Fed engineers a soft landing in the US, global growth would remain firm, and demand for commodities high, benefiting the CAD. Against this backdrop, the US rate advantage against Canada is more likely to contract than expand, fueling a further decline in USDCAD.
  • #137
  • May 21, 2007 5:10am May 21, 2007 5:10am
WOW, today's down-move on both USDCAD and EURCAD was too fast and too straight forward for my taste, so I didn't profit from that down thrust in the first couple of hours of London.

Anyone caught that up?
  • #138
  • May 21, 2007 5:13am May 21, 2007 5:13am
Quoting WTB
WOW, today's down-move on both USDCAD and EURCAD was too fast and too straight forward for my taste, so I didn't profit from that down thrust in the first couple of hours of London.

Anyone caught that up?
I'm on since 0940. Left a stop sell at Friday's low + 1 this evening...
  • #139
  • May 21, 2007 6:16am May 21, 2007 6:16am
Shorted again on friday @ 1.0881. Open TP at this moment.

Seems the trend is for Bravado to be Paris Hilton...
  • #140
  • May 21, 2007 7:20am May 21, 2007 7:20am
$CAD 4R Pin North

i know its countertrend and not a very good pin but it might be worth debate.
merlin says" dont take a breakout unless it follows a false breakout", and there has been a false breakout so this could be the start of the real breakout, or not.


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