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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,341
  • Jun 9, 2023 3:00pm Jun 9, 2023 3:00pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} alot of "IFS" in there, I do get where you are coming from but if you can manage your money on a 50/50 basis then even a coin flip you will succeed then you don't have to wait for set ups, not saying I'm right but it has worked for me for over two years now, each to their own...
That's good.
What was your max DD?
  • #2,342
  • Jun 9, 2023 3:04pm Jun 9, 2023 3:04pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} That's good. What was your max DD?
with my bank never more than 5% as I hedge directly or use other pairs or indices and use very very small lots
  • #2,343
  • Edited 3:53pm Jun 9, 2023 3:41pm | Edited 3:53pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} No You can have an EA trading your logic. How do you trade without prediction? You enter S+B at the same time or what? What do you manage the risk if things are not going in your favor? Please an example and will see how risky/safe is your method.
Hi Merka, I guess we aren't really trading without prediction, the prediction is that price will eventually cross some line in the future, averaging means we move our TP line as things develop, I'm also collecting on the carry. It's very risky BTW (depending on your definition of risk).
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,344
  • Edited 4:00am Jun 10, 2023 3:44am | Edited 4:00am
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Hi Merka, I guess we aren't really trading without prediction, the prediction is that price will eventually cross some line in the future, averaging means we move our TP line as things develop, I'm also collecting on the carry. It's very risky BTW (depending on your definition of risk).
If you don't mind, can we explore how is your MM?

Lets make an example.
1) you enter a Sell(0.01)
2) price goes against you.
3) how do you manage this situation? what are your next steps?
If we don't want to predict the market than we should be talking about which MM is best for both trending/ranging market.
till now I didn't find any MM that's good on both trending/ranging markets and has max DD=20%.

If you guys found it, please let me know
  • #2,345
  • Jun 11, 2023 5:44am Jun 11, 2023 5:44am
Correct me if I'm wrong but your questions suggest you haven't read the entire thread, at least once, as many of these questions have already been answered and I don't think anyone here has claimed any clever solution to the reality of trading. I'm quite happy to admit I could get wiped out in any given day and if/when it happens I'll be the first to post. I would say I can't remember the last time I used a hard SL on a trade, long before I started rambling on Rob's thread. If someone has a question that hasn't already be answered, or is struggling with the concepts posted, I'm sure someone will be happy to help, it's been quite a friendly thread so far.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,346
  • Jun 11, 2023 6:52am Jun 11, 2023 6:52am
Quoting Merka
{quote} If you don't mind, can we explore how is your MM? Lets make an example. 1) you enter a Sell(0.01) 2) price goes against you. 3) how do you manage this situation? what are your next steps? If we don't want to predict the market than we should be talking about which MM is best for both trending/ranging market. till now I didn't find any MM that's good on both trending/ranging markets and has max DD=20%. If you guys found it, please let me know
I've posted many real time trades as Lazy says think you need to read the entire thread, making money in trading is hard you going to have to earn it ...if you think you can read a couple of posts and become profitable you are very much mistaken...again happy to help if you are unsure of anything ...
  • #2,347
  • Jun 11, 2023 8:15am Jun 11, 2023 8:15am
Gentleman
I'm not here to steal anything.
And yes, I have read few pages before and now.
For a thread that's aiming to trade without prediction, hence relying only on MM, and not talking about MM it's incredible.
You should be focusing/sharing MMs in order to avoid gambling like this guy.
Inserted Video

I have my own MM but still a bit risky for my liking and from what I have read so far no one here has something we can consider reasobly safe.
For new comers: what's described here is risky. Please manage your risk in case you still would like to try it.
  • #2,348
  • Jun 11, 2023 8:28am Jun 11, 2023 8:28am
Well done @davelansing on your strategy perfectly described.
Cheers
  • #2,349
  • Jun 11, 2023 9:34am Jun 11, 2023 9:34am
Quoting Merka
Gentleman I'm not here to steal anything. And yes, I have read few pages before and now. For a thread that's aiming to trade without prediction, hence relying only on MM, and not talking about MM it's incredible. You should be focusing/sharing MMs in order to avoid gambling like this guy. https://youtu.be/NMSDds2Bfrk I have my own MM but still a bit risky for my liking and from what I have read so far no one here has something we can consider reasobly safe. For new comers: what's described here is risky. Please manage your risk in case...
Sorry I can't help you with your MM that's something you need to work out for yourself I'm not a MM guru never said I was, just posted a few tools and some examples of my trades that some folks may find useful...yes its risky yes its hard said that from the beginning ...ps its all gambling ...if you know of anyway to make constant profits without risk please share as I don't know of any to date...
  • #2,350
  • Jun 11, 2023 10:02am Jun 11, 2023 10:02am
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} Sorry I can't help you with your MM that's something you need to work out for yourself I'm not a MM guru never said I was, just posted a few tools and some examples of my trades that some folks may find useful...yes its risky yes its hard said that from the beginning ...ps its all gambling ...if you know of anyway to make constant profits without risk please share as I don't know of any to date...
We are on the same boat. Till now didn't find any MM that's safe neither my own or anyone else that shared on internet like above video.
My point was to just warn new comers specially newbies about the risk.
Thanks
  • #2,351
  • Jun 11, 2023 12:07pm Jun 11, 2023 12:07pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} We are on the same boat. Till now didn't find any MM that's safe neither my own or anyone else that shared on internet like above video. My point was to just warn new comers specially newbies about the risk. Thanks
hence why I say try demo for at least month then biggest bank with smallest lots you can
  • #2,352
  • Jun 11, 2023 5:31pm Jun 11, 2023 5:31pm
Quoting Merka
Well done @davelansing on your strategy perfectly described. Cheers
Lol, I was editing my strategy post and hit the delete button instead of the save button. I was including the comment that the strategy can be adapted to lower time frames as long as you adjust the pip differential... use ADR for the time frame of interest.

Anyway, good luck!
  • #2,353
  • Edited 5:21pm Jun 12, 2023 5:01pm | Edited 5:21pm
Flat day today, picked up a little swap with EU shorts which already look better, might add 1 more pair and UK100 end of the week to diversify the portfolio, conscious of correlation though. Do like my overnight interest whilst playing the waiting game, surprising how this adds up in the background. Looking back, from May 15, EA has placed 171 trades with equity currently around +11%.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,354
  • Edited 7:53am Jun 13, 2023 5:53am | Edited 7:53am
Note to self, don't comment on EU shorts UJ and finance helping whilst I wait.
Glad I turned UJ back on today, multiple entries banked 1.5% so far, still work to do with EU but waiting it out.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,355
  • Edited 1:41pm Jun 14, 2023 8:27am | Edited 1:41pm
Great day to be long $, think of the finance tonight
*Dammit my UJs just hit TP
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,356
  • Jun 15, 2023 8:33am Jun 15, 2023 8:33am
Ok so everything now absorbed in margin with 7 levels running on two pairs; small lots (in relation to balance) and patience the key.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,357
  • Jun 15, 2023 10:28am Jun 15, 2023 10:28am
Quoting LazyTrades
Ok so everything now absorbed in margin with 7 levels running on two pairs; small lots (in relation to balance) and patience the key.
Good luck!
I have no clue where it's going
  • #2,358
  • Jun 16, 2023 2:30pm Jun 16, 2023 2:30pm
Quite a few profits today, obviously the long floating EU position doesn't help but will continue to hold and collect the finance.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,359
  • Jun 16, 2023 2:51pm Jun 16, 2023 2:51pm
That's a good run going on for ya, keep up the good work mate. How long did it take you to get to the stage where you can fully trust your guts and intuition?
  • #2,360
  • Jun 16, 2023 4:04pm Jun 16, 2023 4:04pm
Quoting Tygobei
That's a good run going on for ya, keep up the good work mate. How long did it take you to get to the stage where you can fully trust your guts and intuition?
Well it's not been that long so this could all blow up going forward but despite the current drawdown scenario I'm not concerned. I've certainly had more success and considerably less stress trading forex this way. I'll maintain you need to use real money forward testing as the mind is a funny beast and needs training, my trades are almost as small as possible in comparison to my balance though. I'm running 3 pairs and UK100, all of which pay interest overnight which makes a big difference to me, albeit psychologically, the best thing is I haven't placed a manual trade in weeks and only check the phone a few times a day for an update so minimal screen time.

In reality though, if the $ weakens for months to come, and there's no retracement at all, and I run out of money, and all my other positions lose as well, then yes it is game over. I'll be the first to let everyone know if this happens. Have a good weekend.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
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