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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #101
  • May 18, 2007 7:19pm May 18, 2007 7:19pm
Net change in long CAD positions in the COT report was +27%, while net change in short was negative. Non-commercial is EXTREMELY net-long CAD (USDCAD short)

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

* this is a nice piece of info for other pairs, BTW
  • #102
  • May 18, 2007 7:27pm May 18, 2007 7:27pm
Quoting cesarnc
Net change in long CAD positions in the COT report was +27%, while net change in short was negative. Non-commercial is EXTREMELY net-long CAD (USDCAD short)

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

* this is a nice piece of info for other pairs, BTW
Like the avatar cesarnc.....
  • #103
  • May 18, 2007 7:37pm May 18, 2007 7:37pm
Quoting hilmy83
oh man, this is would be my biggest trade since i've started in August of 2006. There's no bottom for this usdcad. I hope it'll go under $1!!
Congrats hilmy83. Not all traders can catch big moves like this, even less traders can fully take advantage of the move (ie: scale up AND hold on until price has exhausted).
I got a killer short 7 weeks ago but I wasn't paying enough attention to loonie. I've learnt my lesson.
PS: It wasn't the weekly pinbar that set my short signal up.
  • #104
  • May 18, 2007 7:52pm May 18, 2007 7:52pm
Quoting amaruenterprise
Like the avatar cesarnc.....
Me and my big mouth
  • #105
  • Edited 8:07pm May 18, 2007 8:00pm | Edited 8:07pm
  •  Drphu
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Take2Trades and call me in Morning! | 31 Posts
Looks like one more Good Run down before Reversal to me!

Anytime after a good solid break below 1.087
"Make Life's Reality a Dream Come True!" DrPhu
  • #106
  • May 18, 2007 10:21pm May 18, 2007 10:21pm
Quoting cesarnc
Me and my big mouth


LOL I came here just to see this. Next time watch your predictions, Britney! Hahaha. For those of you who want details on how this happened, please join us over at the GPBJPY forum for a lesson in modesty and humility. My posts don't count lol.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #107
  • May 18, 2007 10:55pm May 18, 2007 10:55pm
Quoting cesarnc
Me and my big mouth
Cesar, I think this would be much more appropriate for you...

http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/msnbc/C...g_6a.widec.jpg
  • #108
  • May 18, 2007 11:03pm May 18, 2007 11:03pm
Quoting pabloski
Cesar, I think this would be much more appropriate for you...

http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/msnbc/C...g_6a.widec.jpg
......
  • #109
  • May 18, 2007 11:27pm May 18, 2007 11:27pm
What USD or CAD news will stop the fall? Or will it be technical, with buyers buying at all time lows. Or will it continue.
Attached Image
  • #110
  • Edited 12:39am May 19, 2007 12:26am | Edited 12:39am
Quoting goodthings
What USD or CAD news will stop the fall? Or will it be technical, with buyers buying at all time lows. Or will it continue.
There are many fundamental reasons that have impulsed (and impulse) CAD strength along with USD depreciation (that I think will continue next week). For me, at this moment there are no reasons for the downtrend to stop. I was waiting to see what was going to happen with the strong support levels, but with today close @ 1.0892 this pair has showed no respect for them. I think this close opens the door to see new multiyear lows next week.
So instead of being expectant to see a trend reversal, I prefer to keep shorting this pair till I see some serious sings of stall.
And about "buyers buying at all time lows", I have just read this on DailyFX:

Quote
Thursday, 17 May 2007USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 5.64 as nearly 85% of traders is long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.44 as 84% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.4% higher than yesterday and 17.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 11.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 1.1% below its monthly average. The SSI signals more USDCAD losses.

So even though most of traders had long positions on USDCAD waiting for a reversal, the downtrend continued +100 pips today. Maybe these massive long positions took place due to the pair reaching such lows (although it makes no sense to me shorting this pair at this point). This commentary is from 17 May, so as Cesar said when he posted this link http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm, it seems that today many traders realized it is better to go long CAD. Let's see if so many traders keep buying this pair next week. I'm on the other side, I'll keep shorting it.
  • #111
  • Edited 7:49am May 19, 2007 1:23am | Edited 7:49am
Quoting pabloski
So even though most of traders had long positions on USDCAD waiting for a reversal, the downtrend continued +100 pips today. Maybe these massive long positions took place due to the pair reaching such lows (although it makes no sense to me shorting this pair at this point). This commentary is from 17 May, so as Cesar said when he posted this link http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm, it seems that today many traders realized it is better to go long CAD. Let's see if so many traders keep buying this pair next week. I'm on the other side, I'll keep shorting it.
With all due respect to DailyFX I tend to believe the info from the CFTC official site where more then 2/3 of the traders hold USD/CAD short positions (CAD longs). Also the report cover up to May 15th so I expect with the resent down move that number to be even higher.

I'm not trying to argue about the downtrend but for me it's just not safe to sell it here with more and more ppl betting one way. We all know that happens when everybody is taking one side only. Just look at the majors. Couple of weeks ago I've read some were betting that cable will keep going and going to numbers like 2.5000 . But where is the cable now and most important where are those ppl who bought at 2.01+ ? Have they taken a loss or still holding in hope to get at least break even when/if it moves higher?

Now it's totally different game if one is already short from the highs and have a lead of couple of hundreds of points. Adding to those shorts is good strategy. But opening a new short position at these levels is not a wise thing for me to do right now.

Regards
  • #112
  • May 19, 2007 1:45am May 19, 2007 1:45am
Quoting JimboFX
...I'm not trying to argue about the downtrend but for me it's just not safe to sell it here...

...Now it totally different game if one is already short frot the highs and have a lead of couple of hundreds of points. Adding to those shorts is good strategy...

Regards
sweet.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #113
  • Edited 2:04am May 19, 2007 1:55am | Edited 2:04am
  •  Drphu
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Take2Trades and call me in Morning! | 31 Posts
Reversals, Trades and Time Frames, Often trades are related to one another including the chart time frame but there is also the trade time frame to consider. and How much of a reversal are we taking about 200 pips? Ok
So maybe 500 is more like it?

It's all about time frames, how long do you want to be in the trade and what you expect out of the trade. Newer to trading people don't usually see that part yet and experienced people often forget to convey that info.

I've attached some nice charts, from monthly to ticks. It's reversed several
times, or has it? last October you could have gone long for a great run till
07 but if your were short since 2002 that was nothing of a reversal, your up
many thousands of pips.

I also know a lot of people taking longs for quite a while now stacking them up.

It could happen but do you really think it will? I gave a target earlier then reversal suggestion but when I did I meant a day or 2 run up is all as soon
as next week, Likely tuesday-wednesday. It's going to take a lot of changes
in CAD and USA to get it to really go up.

Big picture, to me it's in the 5th. wave down and it's going to go with the usual big push!

-Dr

PS. the charts are from top left to bottom right;

Monthly Weekly Daily
4 hours 2 hours 1 hour
30 min. 15min 10 min.
5 min. 1 min. Ticks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdCad.jpg Size: 132 KB
"Make Life's Reality a Dream Come True!" DrPhu
  • #114
  • May 19, 2007 4:37am May 19, 2007 4:37am
All I know is that trendlines are pointing down in every time frame, moving averages are pointing down and we just broke a historical low...

I dunno man, but it look rather bearish if you ask me So until that status quo changes, I will keep on searching for short opportunities according to my system just as I have for the last two months.
  • #115
  • May 19, 2007 4:53am May 19, 2007 4:53am
The last down trend began at 1.1878 and yesterdays low was at 1.0875. There is a runaway gap at 1.1371-79 on daily chart. This sort of gaps is supposed to be formed at 50% of the trend. Based on this gap it is likely that USD/CAD either has already reached the bottom yesterday or is very close to it.
  • #116
  • May 19, 2007 4:54am May 19, 2007 4:54am
Quoting WTB
Trust me if I say that we ALL made that mistake mate.
There,s a old chinese saying : u cant get pearls without dipping your balls under water,
No offense meant
  • #117
  • May 19, 2007 4:57am May 19, 2007 4:57am
Quoting WTB
All I know is that trendlines are pointing down in every time frame, moving averages are pointing down and we just broke a historical low...

I dunno man, but it look rather bearish if you ask me So until that status quo changes, I will keep on searching for short opportunities according to my system just as I have for the last two months.
The further down you go, the cheaper the USD looks to big buyers, and the greater your deviation from the various means becomes, hence the greater the possibility of a return by both psychological and number-theory results alone. It will probably take a bit of news to trigger it though, and I am also looking for for a jolt like you are. Watch the action next week. Interesting things may happen.The stars are aligned!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #118
  • May 19, 2007 5:16am May 19, 2007 5:16am
Quoting pabloski
Cesar, I think this would be much more appropriate for you...

http://msnbcmedia4.msn.com/j/msnbc/C...g_6a.widec.jpg
OK, double or nothing...

I'll use this one if USDCAD does not print 1.0300 this year
  • #119
  • May 19, 2007 5:22am May 19, 2007 5:22am
Quoting cesarnc
OK, double or nothing...

I'll use this one if USDCAD does not print 1.0300 this year
Don't do it cesar! Take it back while there is time. It won't, man, you can't see that far. Even the stars cannot speak thus!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #120
  • May 19, 2007 5:45am May 19, 2007 5:45am
Quoting Plutonite
Don't do it cesar! Take it back while there is time. It won't, man, you can't see that far. Even the stars cannot speak thus!
Relax man....

Just jump in the USDCAD bus to hell and enjoy the ride

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