Profit on Fluctuation System: Hedged | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

EA needed for hedged grid trading system 0 replies

Let's measure the spread's fluctuation (scientific approach) 0 replies

Why such crazy fluctuation with the JPY? 4 replies

Hedged Carry Trading 3 replies

Looking for zero Hedged Margin broker 6 replies

Attachments: Profit on Fluctuation System: Hedged
Exit Attachments

Profit on Fluctuation System: Hedged

  • #41
  • May 18, 2007 12:18pm May 18, 2007 12:18pm
Hi:

Thanks for the file.
However, it doesn't look like anything different than prev. version.
Only think it was changed around was entern setting was moved up/down rearranged. In any case, I tried with new revised version and it doesn't seem to place an order. How about you? Did it work for you?
For me, HedgeDCA EA works better than this one as far as place an order, but, HedgeDCA, it doesn't close-all when it reached profit. It only close 1 that reached profit and left other one dangling.

Well, concept is there... so, have to find the EA that works.

Cheers!

Quoting mikejody
How is this one? I believe it is for minis, but it opened 2 orders at exactly the same time for me.
  • #42
  • May 18, 2007 3:29pm May 18, 2007 3:29pm
Sorry, that is the only EA I have.

By the way, made 4% profit today!

Quoting fx4_ever
Hi:

Thanks for the file.
However, it doesn't look like anything different than prev. version.
Only think it was changed around was entern setting was moved up/down rearranged. In any case, I tried with new revised version and it doesn't seem to place an order. How about you? Did it work for you?
For me, HedgeDCA EA works better than this one as far as place an order, but, HedgeDCA, it doesn't close-all when it reached profit. It only close 1 that reached profit and left other one dangling.

Well, concept is there... so, have to find the EA that works.

Cheers!
  • #43
  • May 18, 2007 3:36pm May 18, 2007 3:36pm
This, my first week trading this method, I closed up 10%.
  • #44
  • May 18, 2007 4:07pm May 18, 2007 4:07pm
one idea i tested for about three months in demo was using the manage-profit ea (been some time but i think that was the one) and set it to close all open and pending trades if there was a 1% or even 2% increase in the account. My math was a bit different (there was a calculation for getting parity/equality out of the currencies initiating different lots-per-long (E/U and U/C) for a given pair).

My general findings for myself in a SBFX demo were that there were days (more often than not) that the trades would be held over to the next day as the x% profit was not realized yet. In the mean time i'm looking at some no brainer set ups that i (or nearly any other trader with some chart time) would have taken on either pair alone and made much more than the x% profit target in the "Hedge" model. I stopped my tests as it was evident to me that it would be far easier just doing some simple TA, draw a couple trend lines, find local S/R, flip the coin, click the mouse and take your chance with one trade long or short and not try to psych myself into some form of 'comfort' by thinking i was hedging and safe (which time proved was a false assumption). For my three month test period the account was barely over break even as once the currencies begin moving against your initial entry they can really cook an account, swap or no swap.

I really appreciate the insights of MrMikal, he has a very keen grasp on the math/MM and enjoy his posts in anythread he visits!

For me and my personality, i find it easier to do the homework and take an educated guess on an entry rather than hope for a 'difference' in profit between two pairs. Just My Ramble on what i too thought was a worth while experiment at the time (December 2006??)

Best wishes on your experiment and gathering of pips.
: ) Thom
  • #45
  • May 18, 2007 4:29pm May 18, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting mikejody
Sorry, that is the only EA I have.

By the way, made 4% profit today!
hello
do you use the last ea that you attached?
what is your setting?
what time frame?
do you set this ea in eur and chf charts?
thanks
  • #46
  • May 18, 2007 5:55pm May 18, 2007 5:55pm
No problem.
Thanks for sharing whatever you had.
I did make some profit today also.

However, I noticed the swap charge is not in my favor if I open both same lot size on both pairs. I am going to think about it a little more on this strategy.

Quoting mikejody
Sorry, that is the only EA I have.

By the way, made 4% profit today!
  • #47
  • May 18, 2007 8:55pm May 18, 2007 8:55pm
Thanks Thom, nice to hear from you. I really appreciate your comments here. Since I'm in the air 4 days a week or so I can't really wait for the market to set up and take an educated guess on direction, so I have to explore these various methods that don't require guessing on direction.

I appreciate hearing from people why this won't work; I will probably discover that over time as well. Right now it is just a fun experiment and is profiting every day. Of course, the daily EUR/CHF has been up too, so I'll see how it goes when that descends.

Quoting accrete
one idea i tested for about three months in demo was using the manage-profit ea (been some time but i think that was the one) and set it to close all open and pending trades if there was a 1% or even 2% increase in the account. My math was a bit different (there was a calculation for getting parity/equality out of the currencies initiating different lots-per-long (E/U and U/C) for a given pair).

My general findings for myself in a SBFX demo were that there were days (more often than not) that the trades would be held over to the next day as the x% profit was not realized yet. In the mean time i'm looking at some no brainer set ups that i (or nearly any other trader with some chart time) would have taken on either pair alone and made much more than the x% profit target in the "Hedge" model. I stopped my tests as it was evident to me that it would be far easier just doing some simple TA, draw a couple trend lines, find local S/R, flip the coin, click the mouse and take your chance with one trade long or short and not try to psych myself into some form of 'comfort' by thinking i was hedging and safe (which time proved was a false assumption). For my three month test period the account was barely over break even as once the currencies begin moving against your initial entry they can really cook an account, swap or no swap.

I really appreciate the insights of MrMikal, he has a very keen grasp on the math/MM and enjoy his posts in anythread he visits!

For me and my personality, i find it easier to do the homework and take an educated guess on an entry rather than hope for a 'difference' in profit between two pairs. Just My Ramble on what i too thought was a worth while experiment at the time (December 2006??)

Best wishes on your experiment and gathering of pips.
: ) Thom
  • #48
  • May 18, 2007 9:26pm May 18, 2007 9:26pm
Quoting mikejody
Thanks Thom, nice to hear from you. I really appreciate your comments here. Since I'm in the air 4 days a week or so I can't really wait for the market to set up and take an educated guess on direction, so I have to explore these various methods that don't require guessing on direction.

I appreciate hearing from people why this won't work; I will probably discover that over time as well. Right now it is just a fun experiment and is profiting every day. Of course, the daily EUR/CHF has been up too, so I'll see how it goes when that descends.

i love this idea..

you got 10% by trade manual or using EA? which one..? thx
Simplicity your Life
  • #49
  • May 19, 2007 12:16am May 19, 2007 12:16am
Quoting stevenali
i love this idea..

you got 10% by trade manual or using EA? which one..? thx
Manually. I did not have the EA until yesterday. But remember, EUR/CHF was climbing this whole week, and people say that is why I profited. Don't trade this live until thorough testing under all conditions is completed.
  • #50
  • May 19, 2007 2:40am May 19, 2007 2:40am
MikeJody, thanks a lot for contributing this great idea.

Your way, i believe that it's very promising in earning.

And I agree with you on taking profit at 1% (or 2% etc), just my guess is that we should not re-build the hedge right away at the same exit price. A few hours waiting may be needed for the "rubber band" to re-joined, not sure if you get me.

well, but i still feel that the other guys misunderstood the system, what you earn is from the 5% time of errorneous correlation between the 2 pairs, instead of partial imbalance that favors Eur/Chf. so no matter eur/chf jump or drop, if only 5% error exists, you'll have the chance to experience profit/loss now and then, just when profit comes, you'll close the trades. That's it. But I do suggest a balanced hedge.

I didn't calculate mathmatically, i only think lazily in my head :-).
  • #51
  • May 19, 2007 7:52am May 19, 2007 7:52am
Charvo,

Thank you for your post. I think what you are saying is correct, yet it remains to be seen when EUR/CHF sinks.

I look at this system like this:

Let's say EUR/USD rises 10 pips. The reverse correlation is that the USD/CHF will sink 10 pips. However, occasionally it only sinks 5 pips, delays for a bit, then drops the other 5 pips.

During that delay we can make 5 pips. And since lot sizes are so large (and they can be, due to the reverse correlation) 5 pips can be a huge gain.

Of course there are times when that fluctuation works against us. Yesterday I had a 10% drawdown before making the final 4%. But 10% drawdown is really not much. I've traded some systems that experience 20-30% drawdowns.

Well, as I said, let's wait to make any difinitive determinations about this system until EUR/CHF drops, and then see what kind of fluctuations we get.

Thanks for your thoughts Charvo.

Quoting charvo
MikeJody, thanks a lot for contributing this great idea.

Your way, i believe that it's very promising in earning.

And I agree with you on taking profit at 1% (or 2% etc), just my guess is that we should not re-build the hedge right away at the same exit price. A few hours waiting may be needed for the "rubber band" to re-joined, not sure if you get me.

well, but i still feel that the other guys misunderstood the system, what you earn is from the 5% time of errorneous correlation between the 2 pairs, instead of partial imbalance that favors Eur/Chf. so no matter eur/chf jump or drop, if only 5% error exists, you'll have the chance to experience profit/loss now and then, just when profit comes, you'll close the trades. That's it. But I do suggest a balanced hedge.

I didn't calculate mathmatically, i only think lazily in my head :-).
  • #52
  • May 19, 2007 2:15pm May 19, 2007 2:15pm
Hypothetical:

Has anyone monitored if when the +1% hits the exact correlation between the 2 pairs is say 98.8% and when the account balance goes down, the correlation is say 98.1%? If this is true, maybe it would be best to only enter positions when the correlation is < 98.2% and close the positions once we hit the 1%.
  • #53
  • May 19, 2007 2:30pm May 19, 2007 2:30pm
Here's an EA I'm using live.

But be aware, all the concerns that have been raised are correct, although one might think equity is protected by a hedge you are exposed to all the components of the so called hedge: EUR,CHF and USD. And even when you got the lot ratio exactly right, you're still exposed to the EURCHF.
Going long EURUSD and USDCHF 1 lot each is equivalent to:
135.060 USD worth of EUR long
35.060 (135.060-100.000) USD short
100.000 USD worth of CHF short!
If you can't do the maths or don't understand it, this method is not for you. Forget about the correlation BS, the "if pair x moves this, pair y moves opposite 98% of the time" blabla.... Just watch the EURCHF.
Over the past period buying euro vs selling dollar and swiss hasn't been a bad strategy and hence this method is making money. But when the fundamentals change, the party is over.
Also closing and opening at the same price is useless, it's just throwing money at your broker.
And why not just trading EURCHF directly? Don't know you have a little short dollar exposure as well but I think it is mainly the misplaced confidence in the "hedge" that allows novice traders to sit out drawdowns.

Now about the EA:
With EntryMode 1 it is looking to open positions at 6 am and 6 pm, platform time (if not opened yet). With EntryMode 2 it opens positions when the candle body of the previous bar of the synthetic pair exceeded the hourly ATR14.
Once positions are opened, the EA updates every 5 seconds to close at the defined % balance increase. During this phase, the EA properties cannot be accessed!
The MaxDD acts as a stoploss, positions are closed when the losses reach a defined percentage of the balance.

Use Parameters:
Pair1
Direction1 Trade Direction Pair1( "buy" or "sell")
Pair2
Direction2
Ratio Lotsize ratio (Pair1/Pair2)
EntryMode 1= time based entry (6 & 18h) 2 = entry when candle body > ATR
Synthetic Synthetic pair used with EntryMode = 1
SynthDirection
MarginUsage % of available margin to use
ProfitFactor % balance increase to close positions
MaxDD Max allowed drawdown
MagicNumber
Suspend

Have fun with it.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 GaoXing Pseudo Hedger.ex4   9 KB | 550 downloads
  • #54
  • May 19, 2007 2:59pm May 19, 2007 2:59pm
Thanks for the EA BaasHarm. Could you tell us a little more about it, such as do we attach it just to one chart, TF etc...
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #55
  • May 19, 2007 3:12pm May 19, 2007 3:12pm
I fully agree with what BaasHarm have said. This strategy will work, but there are certain things to be considered. The lot allocate should not be 1:1, USD/CHF should weight more. Finding the right entry is also important to minimize the drawdown and shorten the waiting period of getting to the profit zone.

Here's my view on the topic you're discussing.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post1445682
  • #56
  • May 19, 2007 7:44pm May 19, 2007 7:44pm
Thank you for the EA. Do you have any stats on it? I'd like to see several months or years if you do. Also, what settings do you use, what pairs, what timeframe, etc.? Please post this information from now on when posting an EA so that you don't get all these questions afterward.

Thank you.

Quoting BaasHarm!
Here's an EA I'm using live.

But be aware, all the concerns that have been raised are correct, although one might think equity is protected by a hedge you are exposed to all the components of the so called hedge: EUR,CHF and USD. And even when you got the lot ratio exactly right, you're still exposed to the EURCHF.
Going long EURUSD and USDCHF 1 lot each is equivalent to:
135.060 USD worth of EUR long
35.060 (135.060-100.000) USD short
100.000 USD worth of CHF short!
If you can't do the maths or don't understand it, this method is not for you. Forget about the correlation BS, the "if pair x moves this, pair y moves opposite 98% of the time" blabla.... Just watch the EURCHF.
Over the past period buying euro vs selling dollar and swiss hasn't been a bad strategy and hence this method is making money. But when the fundamentals change, the party is over.
Also closing and opening at the same price is useless, it's just throwing money at your broker.
And why not just trading EURCHF directly? Don't know you have a little short dollar exposure as well but I think it is mainly the misplaced confidence in the "hedge" that allows novice traders to sit out drawdowns.

Now about the EA:
With EntryMode 1 it is looking to open positions at 6 am and 6 pm, platform time (if not opened yet). With EntryMode 2 it opens positions when the candle body of the previous bar of the synthetic pair exceeded the hourly ATR14.
Once positions are opened, the EA updates every 5 seconds to close at the defined % balance increase. During this phase, the EA properties cannot be accessed!
The MaxDD acts as a stoploss, positions are closed when the losses reach a defined percentage of the balance.

Use Parameters:
Pair1
Direction1 Trade Direction Pair1( "buy" or "sell")
Pair2
Direction2
Ratio Lotsize ratio (Pair1/Pair2)
EntryMode 1= time based entry (6 & 18h) 2 = entry when candle body > ATR
Synthetic Synthetic pair used with EntryMode = 1
SynthDirection
MarginUsage % of available margin to use
ProfitFactor % balance increase to close positions
MaxDD Max allowed drawdown
MagicNumber
Suspend

Have fun with it.
  • #57
  • May 19, 2007 9:48pm May 19, 2007 9:48pm
Greetings, has anyone tried this system? It sounds exactly like what we are doing, but there is no contact info and I won't purchase anything where I can't ask a few questions:

http://home.bellsouth.net/p/s/commun...upid=217506&ck=
  • #58
  • May 19, 2007 10:04pm May 19, 2007 10:04pm
Quoting mikejody
Greetings, has anyone tried this system? It sounds exactly like what we are doing, but there is no contact info and I won't purchase anything where I can't ask a few questions:

http://home.bellsouth.net/p/s/commun...upid=217506&ck=
If its a legitimate spread, it is nothing like what you're doing.
As has been explained to you several times, you are not trading a spread. You are trading a naked long EUR/CHF.
  • #59
  • May 19, 2007 10:20pm May 19, 2007 10:20pm
Oops, guess you missed the question. What I was asking is if anyone has used the system. I wasn't looking for an explanation of what we are doing, but rather whether or not anyone has experience with the other sytem.

Quoting billbss
If its a legitimate spread, it is nothing like what you're doing.
As has been explained to you several times, you are not trading a spread. You are trading a naked long EUR/CHF.
  • #60
  • May 19, 2007 10:30pm May 19, 2007 10:30pm
Quoting mikejody
Oops, guess you missed the question. What I was asking is if anyone has used the system. I wasn't looking for an explanation of what we are doing, but rather whether or not anyone has experience with the other sytem.
I was responding to this part of your post-

Quote
It sounds exactly like what we are doing...


It sounds nothing like what you are doing.
0 traders viewing now