Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/06/07/th...flation-fears/

The Bank of Canada Un-Pauses, Hikes 25 Basis Points, Second Central Bank to Un-Pause on Resurging Inflation Fears

by Wolf Richter • Jun 7, 2023

More rate hikes are on the table. “Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.”

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The Bank of Canada un-paused today, after having “paused” following the January hike. The pause had been widely ballyhooed as the end of the rate hikes and a pivot toward rate cuts. Those hopes have now been bitterly disappointed. Everyone is figuring out that this inflation isn’t just fading away on its own.
Today it hiked its policy rates again by 25 basis points, bringing its overnight rate to 4.75%, the highest in 22 years, in a move that surprised a lot of observers.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...023-06-07_.png

The Bank of Canada has now become the second central bank to pause and then un-pause, after the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had paused in April and un-paused in May, and hiked for the second time post-pause yesterday, on fears that inflation was getting entrenched via inflation expectations and surging labor costs that weren’t matched by productivity gains.

At its meeting in January, when the Bank of Canada hiked one more time and announced the pause, it stressed that it was a wait-and-see pause, not a pivot, though that message had been widely ignored. At the time, BOC Governor Tiff Macklem said in an interview, “The question really we’re asking ourselves is, ‘Have we done enough?’ We’re pausing to assess whether we’ve done enough.”

Turns out, it has not “done enough.”
The rate hike today reflects “our view that monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2% target,” it said in the statement today.
So, well, turns out, amid strong consumer spending, a tight labor market, and increased activity in the housing market, the Bank of Canada has not done enough. And it un-paused the ballyhooed pause.

The BOC pointed out that the “stubbornly high” underlying inflation rose for the first time in 10 months. The increases were broad-based across goods and services, “reflecting strong demand and a tight labor market,” it said in the statement.
The BOC is now seriously fretting about the resurgence of underlying inflation:

1. “Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.
2. “The economy was stronger than expected” in Q1 with GDP growth of 3.1%
3. “Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost from population gains.”
4. “Demand for services continued to rebound.”
5. “Spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and, more recently, housing market activity has picked up.”
6. “The labor market remains tight: higher immigration and participation rates are expanding the supply of workers but new workers have been quickly hired, reflecting continued strong demand for labor.”

And it warned that “with three-month measures of core inflation running in the 3.5-4% range for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target.”

And the BOC put the possibility of more rate hikes on the table. It said, “We will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behavior are consistent with achieving the inflation target.”

Yields jump on the move.
The Canadian bond market was surprised by the move and is now adjusting to it. The one-year yield jumped by 17 basis points to 5.13% today, now expecting one more rate hike and no rate cuts within the 12-month period:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...2023-06-07.png

Quantitative tightening will continue.
“Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet,” it said.
During its crazed QE starting in March 2020 through March 2021, the BOC piled on an additional C$455 billion in assets. As of the most recent balance sheet, it has now shed 46% of these pandemic QE assets, well ahead of the Fed and other central banks — though it’s behind the Fed on rate hikes, perhaps on the theory of faster QT and slower rate hikes.

It started early by starting to unload its repos and Treasury bills in 2020. It never seriously bought mortgage bonds and then stopped buying them altogether in late 2020. And it unwound most of its other small holdings.

Its largest remaining holdings today are Government of Canada (GoC) bonds: at C$313 billion they’re down by 27.4% (red) from the peak. The “Indemnity” reflects unrealized losses on its bond holdings, currently C$28 billion (brown), which it carries as an asset under an indemnity agreement with the Government of Canada, that, if it actually ever sold those bonds, rather than hold them to maturity, and thereby realized the losses, the government would indemnify the BOC for those losses.
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21 comments for “The Bank of Canada Un-Pauses, Hikes 25 Basis Points, Second Central Bank to Un-Pause on Resurging Inflation Fears”

1. nov22
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:00 pm
   Nobody talks about business investment anymore under the current interest rate environment. I wonder how bad it is now. BTW, commercial real estate vacancy rate is 15% in downtown Toronto.
   Reply
2. rodolfo
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:00 pm
   Well does the fed have the guts to follow this one?
   Reply
   1. Juliab
      Jun 7, 2023 at 1:17 pm
      It depends on the movement of US inflation. Why not follow BoC? !
      Reply
   2. Occam
      Jun 7, 2023 at 1:24 pm
      25 basis points more would put US monetary policy at either mildly stimulative or around neutral, depending on which inflation index you use. Meanwhile, fiscal policy remains highly stimulative long term. Fifty basis points plus a statement that there will be no pause or skip until inflation hits the 2% target would convince Wall Street that the Fed wasn’t going to tolerate 4% inflation. However, the Fed will tolerate higher inflation because abusing the currency is the political and societal choice that has been made, and the Fed is part of government and society.
      Reply
      1. jon
         Jun 7, 2023 at 1:32 pm
         I’d rewrite this: “Abusing the currency is the political and societal choice that has been made, and the Fed is part of government and society.”
         as
         Abusing the currency is the choice which helps the elites and rich , that has been made, and the Fed does not work for common people but for its masters .
         I don’t see FED being hawkish either in their action or their words.
         Reply

      
      

   3. Random Intime
      Jun 7, 2023 at 1:43 pm
      For Fed balance sheet size is the problem. They should prioritize reducing it rather than rates.
      Reply

   
   

3. rodolfo
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:11 pm
   And it warned that, “with three-month measures of core inflation running in the 3.5-4% range for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target.”
   Just like Wolf has been calling it for months
   Reply
4. Mark
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:22 pm
   “Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.”
   Translation:
   “It’s amazing how much counterfeit currency we actually brought into existence.”
   Reply
5. Flaming Anarchist
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:30 pm
   Real estate prices started climbing in Canada again, in my hometown Nelson BC $500k for something I couldn’t live in on a busy street. Everywhere you go people are spending like crazy. 50% of adjustable rate mortgages have hit the trigger point with 100% + of the payment going to interest. The Trudeau Government passed emergency legislation to extend amortizations. Some have seen them increase to 70-90 years. We have another 2008 brewing, this time Canada will feel the pain.
   Reply
   1. TEMPLE
      Jun 7, 2023 at 2:49 pm
      I have family in Nelson and likewise watch the market there, and I am as shocked by what I see in that tiny little middle-of-nowhere town as I am with what I see here in Nanaimo (a town that anything bad you can say about it…is basically the truth).
      Prices are down here about 15% here from the peak madness (early January 2022 in The ‘Mo), but that represents a sizeable bounce off the -25% pricing of January 2023. Sales are off by quite a bit, too, and anything over a million just rots on the market, but the idea of million dollar non-waterfront houses in Nanaimo would have been laughable five years ago. It’s still laughable, but it has become reality. It’s not really a robust market, unlike what real estate agents are saying, but there’s sure a long way to go until we get back anywhere close to actual affordability.
      TEMPLE
      Reply
      1. Maximus Minimus
         Jun 7, 2023 at 3:04 pm
         Not sure if you can comment on the situation north of Nanaimo, Parksville to Courtenay?
         Reply

      
      

   2. Maximus Minimus
      Jun 7, 2023 at 3:03 pm
      Not until the loonies currently in charge are replaced.
      Reply

   
   

6. Pol Pothead
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:36 pm
   Wolf, can you comment on the argument that the #1 upward contributor to CPI (28.5% YOY) are mortgage interest costs from variable-rate mortgages (and rolling renewals of fixed-terms) adjusting to the rising benchmark rates? Don’t the hikes statistically exacerbate, not relieve, this surge?
   Reply
   1. Wolf Richter
      Jun 7, 2023 at 2:04 pm
      If that’s what you believe, you need to argue that with the BOC, not with me.
      The BOC said the opposite of what you say. It’s cited in the article. Read the article!
      Reply

   
   

7. Anonymous
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:48 pm
   I’ve grown weary of this trickle of rate increases. Inflation is going to rage past 2024. Currency is going to be devalued significantly and everyone is getting significantly poorer.
   The fed and government is going to drag out the inflation past the general election and then we may have a deflation/stagflation, whatever. I don’t see this changing until 2024 or later…
   Reply
   1. OutWest
      Jun 7, 2023 at 2:10 pm
      “Currency is going to be devalued significantly and everyone is getting significantly poorer.”
      From what I observe, the wealthiest 20% or so of citizen’s are able to manage inflation in a way that actually increases their wealth. Tax policies help ensure that they prosper under most scenarios.
      Reply

   
   

8. Mr. Market
   Jun 7, 2023 at 1:56 pm
   – The charts remain in agreement. The FED could hike the next time but the charts are also predicting that rate cuts are coming.

Yes would you please explain WHY the Patterns Repeat ?? Thanks.

https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...uopUusWM9Q--~D
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...rXeNU1nL4Q--~D
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...bhbOb8RQ6Q--~D

Let’s Rethink That, Again
The winds from Canada are darkening the atmosphere in Wall Street. Not just literally, but also metaphorically. From the extreme north and south of the globe, those banking on lower interest rates from the Fed are caught in a pincer movement. First the Reserve Bank of Australia and now the Bank of Canada have shown that after a central bank “pauses” (stops hiking), its next move can still be another hike. In the US, the possibility of a Fed pause has been treated interchangeably with the notion of a peak in rates, to be followed by cutting. So hikes elsewhere have dampened enthusiasm around a likely pause by the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week.

The Australian and Canadian economies have much in common, and both are considerably smaller than the US. But their combined experience is telling. In Australia, the RBA “skipped” on a hike in February and March, while leaving the option of hikes wide open. It has now hiked at three successive meetings. That wasn’t expected. (For more on Down Under, see colleague Daniel Moss’s column today here.) The following chart shows the evolution of market expectations for the where the target rate would be after the June meetings, compared with where the rate actually stood. Since March, the overnight index swaps market signaled that people thought the RBA was done, and neither of the last two hikes was priced in at all:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...MwWZv6tLGw--~D

In Canada, the central bank messaging had been different. The BOC made clear that it thought the hike in January would be its last. Expectations for the June meeting at one point were that the bank would already be cutting rates by now (largely because the regional banking failures in the US were thought for a time to have changed the outlook). It hasn’t worked out that way:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...8EoGLsp9lg--~D

The main problem for both these central banks was inflation. It’s falling, but nowhere near fast enough. Diana Iovanel, economist at Capital Economics in London, said:
Inflation has proved sticky in both economies and investors have revised up expectations for rate hikes. In other words, pauses don’t necessarily mean sustainably lower long-term yields unless inflation is under control which, at least with the benefit of hindsight, wasn’t the case in Australia or Canada.
That’s an unpalatable message for the US, where inflation is higher than in Canada (although lower than in Australia). Looking at core inflation, excluding food and energy to avoid extreme base effects, the decline in all three economies is painfully slow:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...wJBfJcoLcA--~D

While the news from Sydney and Ottawa was unwelcome, and surprising for shorter-term money markets, longer bond yields were adjusting to the notion that rates would stay higher. This chart from Iovanel of Capital Economics usefully points to the key events of the last few months, to show that the pauses and skips in Canada and Australia didn’t stop longer-term yields from rising:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...jNGySd7ZXA--~D

In the US, however, the Canadian news plainly came as a shock. As a result, the fed funds futures market’s projected course shifted upward again, and now assumes that the target rate will still be above 5% at year-end. There has been some drama along the way, but at this point investors are inured for rates to stay somewhat higher for much longer. This is the projected course as of Jan. 1 compared to today:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...jxNfXmV7_Q--~D

Meanwhile, the 10-year yield, critical building block of global finance, took a jump. It appeared for a while that the banking crisis had decisively ended its upward trend. Now, the yield is back above its 200-day moving average:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...JE7E.9fWhg--~D

Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at Stonex Financial Inc., said the moves in Canada and Australia showed that central banks were holding on to flexibility and reserved the right to surprise the markets. She also damped suggestions that the Fed could give up on getting inflation back to 2%. “The Fed has a credibility issue,” she said. “So it would be very difficult to change the target right now without having reached that target, or to cut before reaching it. So my suspicion is that the Fed is going to hike again, perhaps not in June.”
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...Ygayv1NenA--~D

What Happens Next (Banking Edition)?
The key question, it should go without saying, concerns US inflation. If it were to rise in the numbers to be published next Tuesday (which scarcely anybody expects), we should brace for a rate hike the next day. The greater risk, in my opinion, is that inflation Canada-style fails to move down fast enough, and rates stay higher for longer. We’ll have time to discuss that next week.

The other critical issue concerns the banks. At present, the assumption appears to be that the big reduction in rates as banks failed three months ago can be dismissed as a head-fake. The authorities intervened promptly and aggressively, and everyone has calmed down, initially because looser money was thought to be on the way. Now, we’re back to assuming that fed funds will dig in above 5%. But is it safe to ignore the banks?
Judging by the yield curve, regional banks aren’t out of the woods yet. SVB Financial fell just as the inversion (the gap between two- and 10-year yields) dipped to more than 100 basis-points. It returned this week to an 80 basis-points inversion:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...V1rcaBwZmA--~D

An inverted yield curve is a famous recession indicator. Joe LaVorgna of SMBC explains why:
The main reason the yield curve is so good at predicting recessions is because it causes them. It is standard practice that financial intermediaries borrow short and lend (invest) long. When the curve is deeply inverted, it gums up the money and credit creation process because there is little financial incentive to make loans or invest in securities. Consequently, the inverted curve signals tightening in credit conditions and looming financial market stress.

And of course it’s closing in on the point at which SVB failed. Credit conditions surveys in recent weeks have shown banks becoming more reluctant to lend. The index of “true financial conditions” kept by Will Denyer of Gavekal Research, which combines a number of monetary variables, looks alarming, with conditions barely easier than three months ago and at levels much tighter even than during the credit crisis in 2008:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...dzA1UwGaKQ--~D

The stock market still seems to think the banks are damaged goods. Whether looking at valuation (the KBW banks index is still trading below book value), or comparing to the rest of the market, the bounce from the March crisis point is minimal:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...Sexo4POvgg--~D

It’s true that stock investors are worried about banks’ profitability more than their default risk. The crisis has left their profits seriously challenged. But poor earnings and an inverted yield curve can’t go on for long without creating another banking crisis. If that happens, the prospects for lower rates improve. But so, unfortunately, do the chances of a recession.

Small But Mighty
The incredible market rally turbocharged by excitement surrounding artificial intelligence has lost momentum in recent days. That was inevitable. But one corner of the market is showing signs of strength. Smaller companies, ignored of late, are bouncing much like a ball that has been held underwater.
Small-cap stocks’ rebound has drawn attention from multiple Wall Street strategists. After so long in the doldrums, any little jump would attract attention. The graph below shows the ratio of the Russell 2000, which comprises the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, and the Russell Top 50 Index, which includes the 50 largest. At one point on June 1, the 2000 underperformed the Top 50 to the lowest in 20 years. That has since changed based on the slight uptick recently:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...rg6qPeHOIQ--~D

That the index has lagged other benchmarks isn’t that surprising. “Small caps tend to be more volatile and linked to the underlying domestic economy,” wrote Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. She also noted that out of the 2,000 companies the gauge tracks, a significant swath are banking-related. The trans-Atlantic banking turmoil was only three months ago and lingers in “the collective investor memory.”
“It’s been touch and go to declare the crisis over,” Krosby said. But “seeing the index gain support suggests we’re finally moving beyond the worry that another bank-related headline is going to throw financial markets into a tailspin.”

The Russell 2000 has been trading below key technical thresholds since early this year, and has underperformed the S&P 500 since the market low last October. This is unusual, according to SentimenTrader’s Dean Christians, because small caps typically outperform during the early part of new uptrends. A rally led exclusively by mega caps as we’ve been experiencing is a rare phenomenon.

By his analysis, the disconnect between small and large-cap indexes has been one of the biggest in history. In 40 years, this is only the sixth time that the spread in the distance from a two-year high for the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 has widened to 15%.
“The previous uncoupling occurred in April 2020 when uncertainty around Covid left small caps in the dust as investors crowded into the relative safety of mega-cap Technology stocks,” Christians wrote in a note Wednesday. This time, the disconnect has been fueled by the intensity of the excitement over AI.
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...QsF3ly0mHg--~D
Source: SentimenTrader

The recent leg higher has the Russell 2000 inching past its 200-day moving average for the first time since the banking turmoil. For technical traders, this is a classic positive signal. Rich Ross of Evercore ISI on Wednesday said he expects them to follow the uptrend.
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...Zeb5sep4VQ--~D

Krosby noted that small caps are traditionally a bellwether for the broader economy. “With all the ongoing debate regarding the state of the economy, and concerns about an impending recession, steady interest in small caps suggests the economy is more resilient than the headlines imply,” she said, “or that a recession could be milder than initially projected.”

The obverse is also true. Small caps tend to be rate-sensitive, so if nerves about higher fed funds rates persist, or the banking sector kicks up another accident, they will find it difficult to sustain an upward trend. But small caps’ revival after a terribly narrow rally is undeniably a cheering development.
— Isabelle Lee

Survival Tips
There’s nothing good in the air tonight, and it’s time to get out your N-95 masks. Only this time, you need to put them on when leaving a building, rather than entering. That at least is the case for us in New York and many other places downwind of the forest fires in Quebec.
First Photoshop and now deepfakes have diminished the power of photographic evidence. Cameras really can lie nowadays. So please take my word that the images of Gotham converted into a hellscape that you’ve seen are true to life. A video of the George Washington Bridge, linking New Jersey with Upper Manhattan and the world’s busiest bridge for car traffic (even though a toll absurdly costs $16), has been doing the rounds on Twitter. And yes, it does look like this:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...igC.BMM7Rg--~D

That’s the view from Manhattan, much the same as the grand view of the span and the Hudson we get from my apartment. This photo shows what it looks like from New Jersey toward Manhattan. I say looking “toward” because it was impossible to see from the other side of the river. My apartment building should be plainly visible, except it isn’t:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...8RBRN0Pusw--~D

It doesn’t usually look like something out of Blade Runner. Several photographers have helped by printing “before and after” shots as the cloud of gunk moved in. This one is good (and judging by the Twitter handle comes from a keen investor in silver and Bitcoin):
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...P9CvwI_wAw--~D

This time-lapse video of the downtown skyline captures what the day has been like. And for a professional shot of New York’s tallest building that seems to be from a noir thriller, try this one from Bloomberg:
https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?ur...1Pr7yLBc8A--~D
One World Trade Center peers out. Photographer: Alex Kent/Bloomberg

I’m not a medical expert, but if tears come to your eyes and your throat starts to tighten as soon as you step outdoors, it’s probably not good. If you still have N-95s from the pandemic, this is the time to put them on. Please be careful out there. And as a tip for longer-term survival, whether this is a freak occurrence or a step in a trend of warming, it’s really not a bad idea to look for a way to stop such things happening in the first place.

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As always look at the patterns repeating. Upon signing up for the 90-day course I will give you one hour of my time to give you an overview of why this happens as one of my friends and clients loveandpeace asked me this morning to explain the fundamental reasons for this and only through direct discussion is this possible to do.


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https://seekingalpha.com/article/461...=31732263.2207

Summary

1. During the U.S. Financial Crisis, Canadian banks were considered some of the strongest in the world.
2. Since 2009, Canadian bank's business models have changed significantly.
3. Today, Canadian banks have major issues.
4. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Market Pinball Wizard. Learn More »

https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/...o=getty-c-w750

Walter Bibikow

As part of our ongoing series of articles on bank stability, we wanted to address Canadian banks in this missive. I want to take this opportunity to remind you that we have reviewed many larger banks in our public articles. But, I must warn you. The substance of that analysis is not looking too good for the future of the larger banks in the United States. You can read about them here.

So, let's take a look at the Canadian banking environment. Canada did not have a banking crisis in 2008. In fact, during the Great Recession, Canadian banks, especially the so-called Big Six, were among the safest banks in the world. However, their business models have changed significantly since then. Yet, many retail depositors in both Canada and the U.S. still think that Canadian banks would be a safe haven in a major global crisis. In this article, we would like to highlight some of the issues we currently see at Canadian banks.

Exposure to capital markets and wealth management-related revenues have increased substantially
The revenue mix of Canadian banks has changed a lot since the Great Recession. If we look at Royal Bank of Canada (RY) aka RBC, which is the largest Canadian bank and is also viewed by many depositors as the safest bank in Canada, then its share of revenues from capital markets and wealth management increased from 37% in 2007 to 53% in 2022. Obviously, these revenues are very volatile and are very likely to be under significant pressure in a recessionary environment.

Rising financing for oil and gas and mining companies
According to the 2023 Fossil Fuel Finance Report, for the first time since 2019, when this report was published, RBC ranks #1 as the largest financier of fossil fuels. RBC provided fossil fuel companies $42.1B in 2022, an increase over its 2021 financing, making for a total of $253B since 2016. Notably, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was ranked second with $39 billion; however, JPM’s total assets are $3.7 trillion, and RBC’s total assets are less than $1.5 trillion. The Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) aka Scotiabank and The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), which are among the Big Six Canadian banks, are also on this list.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...5579342275.png

2023 Fossil Fuel Finance Report

In addition, five of the six largest global financiers of the tar sands are Canadian banks.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...5575498827.png
RAN, Financial Times

Source: RAN, Financial Times.

The tar sands oil industry has already faced major issues during the 2014–2016 oil crisis. Obviously, these energy loans would be under severe pressure in a recessionary environment.

The leverage ratio is a concern
According to our estimates, the weighted-average leverage ratio of the Big Six Canadian banks was a tad above 5.5% as of the end of 2022. By comparison, the respective metric for the U.S. banks was more than 9%. We believe Canadian banks have low leverage ratios given that their business models have become more risky since 2008.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...5681675171.png
Company Data

Residential mortgages and high real estate prices In Canada
Many clients of Canadian banks view a mortgage insurance system in the country as a safety feature that would protect banks from the negative consequences of a potential real estate bubble. However, this system is mandatory only for mortgages with a down payment of less than 20%. If we look at RBC's mortgage book, 76% of its mortgage book is uninsured. More importantly, the highest shares of uninsured mortgages are in Ontario (83%), followed by British Columbia (82%), which saw the highest increases in real estate prices.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uplo...5557621102.png
Company Data

The Bottom Line
The Canadian banks were among the safest in the world during the 2008–2009 crisis, but their business models have changed significantly since then. There are 34 domestic banks in Canada, and it’s a quite small and oligopolistic market. At SaferBankingResearch.com, we found only two banks that meet our criteria. Those two banks are the best we could find in Canada, and they are the best choice for those Canadians who want to keep their money in their country.

But those who have the opportunity to open an account at a U.S. or European bank should take a look at our Top banks to diversify their savings. The Big Six did not meet our standards.

At the end of the day, we're speaking of protecting your hard-earned money. Therefore, it behooves you to engage in due diligence regarding the banks which currently house your money. You have a responsibility to yourself and your family to make sure your money resides in only the safest of institutions. And, if you are relying on the FDIC, I suggest you read our prior articles which outline why such reliance will not be as prudent as you may believe in the coming years.

It is time for you to do a deep dive on the banks that house your hard-earned money in order to determine whether your bank is truly solid or not. And, you can feel free to utilize the methodology we outline here.

Housekeeping Matters
This article, as well as Saferbankingresearch, was a combination of efforts between Avi Gilburt and Renaissance Research, which has been covering U.S., European, LatAm, and CEEMEA banking stocks for more than 15 years.

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Avi Gilburt

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Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis with over 6000 members and almost 1000 money manager clients. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition.

Avi is an accountant and a lawyer by training. His education background includes his graduating college with dual accounting and economics majors, and he then passed all four parts of the CPA exam at once right after he graduated college. He then earned his Juris Doctorate in an advanced two and a half year program at the St. John’s School of Law in New York, where he graduated cumlaude, and in the top 5% of his class. He then went onto the NYU School of Law for his masters of law in taxation (LL.M.).

Before retiring from his legal career, Avi was a partner and National Director at a major national firm. During his legal career, he spearheaded a number of acquisition transactions worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in value. So, clearly, Mr. Gilburt has a detailed understanding how businesses work and are valued.

Yet, when it came to learning how to accurately analyze the financial markets, Avi had to unlearn everything he learned in economics in order to maintain on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time. In fact, once he came to the realization that economics and geopolitics fail to assist in understanding how the market works, it allowed him to view financial markets from a more accurate perspective.

For those interested in how Avi went from a successful lawyer and accountant to become the founder of Elliottwavetrader.net, his detailed story is linked here.
Since Avi began providing his analysis to the public, he has made some spectacular market calls which has earned him the reputation of being one of the best technical analysts in the world.

As an example of some of his most notable astounding market calls, in July of 2011, he called for the USD to begin a multi-year rally from the 74 region to an ideal target of 103.53. In January of 2017, the DXY struck 103.82 and began a pullback expected by Avi.

As another example of one of his astounding calls, Avi called the top in the gold market during its parabolic phase in 2011, with an ideal target of $1,915. As we all know, gold hit a high of $1,921, and pulled back for over 4 years since that time. The night that gold hit its lows in December of 2015, Avi was telling his subscribers that he was on the phone with his broker buying a large order of physical gold, while he had been accumulating individual miner stocks that month, and had just opened the EWT Miners Portfolio to begin buying individual miners stocks due to his expectation of an impending low in the complex.

One of his most shocking calls in the stock market was his call in 2015 for the S&P500 to rally from the 1800SPX region to the 2600SPX region, whereas it would coincide with a “global melt-up” in many other assets. Moreover, he was banging on the table in November of 2016 that we were about to enter the most powerful phase of the rally to 2600SPX, and he strongly noted that it did not matter who won the 2016 election in the US, despite many believing that the market would “crash” if Trump would win the election. This was indeed a testament to the accuracy of the Fibonacci Pinball method that Avi developed.


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Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

https://dailyreckoning.com/does-anyo...ganda-anymore/

“Does Anyone Believe American Propaganda Anymore?”

“Does anyone believe American propaganda anymore?”
This is the question of investigative journalist Matthew Taibbi.

We can offer no answer of course. Yet we hazard the number of those who do dwindle daily.
You recall the dynamiting of the Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline. Through this underwater tube Russia funneled natural gas to Germany.
Last September it took the blasts. Who was to blame?

Official fingers pointed directly toward the Russian hellcat, Putin.
Why this fiend would wreck the thing… thus denying him vast quantities of lucrative energy sales… and impairing his nation’s economy… we have always found mysterious.

Yet we were told he was the one.
Earlier this year investigative reporter Seymour Hersh released whistleblowing claims that the United States did the dynamiting.
The story received little notice in the press.

It Was a “Pro-Ukrainian Group” — No — It Was Ukraine Itself
Shortly thereafter information came trickling out that the United States was not responsible after all.
It was instead the deed of a vague “pro-Ukrainian group” who executed the feat from a rented sailing vessel.
Who precisely were these saboteurs? We were not informed. Yet the mystery has undergone an additional deepening…
We are presently informed that this bunch was not merely a “pro-Ukrainian group” — but the security forces of Ukraine itself.

We are further informed that Mr. Zelenskyy lacked all awareness of the caper. It was all dark to him.
Yet it evidently was not dark to the United States government.

We are now informed — by The Washington Post — that the American intelligence services were told about Ukraine’s impending rascality.

A Real-Life Conspiracy!
Reports Mr. Bezos’ organ of “information”:
Three months before saboteurs bombed the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander in chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure…

The highly specific details, which include numbers of operatives and methods of attack, show that for nearly a year, Western allies have had a basis to suspect Kyiv in the sabotage. That assessment has only strengthened in recent months as German law enforcement investigators uncovered evidence about the bombing that bears striking similarities to what the European service said Ukraine was planning…

More:
The European intelligence made clear that the would-be attackers were not rogue operatives. All those involved reported directly to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, who was put in charge so that the nation’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wouldn’t know about the operation, the intelligence report said.

Keeping Zelenskyy out of the loop would have given the Ukrainian leader a plausible way to deny involvement in an audacious attack on civilian infrastructure that could ignite public outrage and jeopardize Western support for Ukraine — particularly in Germany, which before the war got half its natural gas from Russia and had long championed the Nord Stream project in the face of opposition from other European allies.

Do you follow along?

It’s Hard to Keep up With the Changing Stories
The United States government has transitioned from “It was Russia!”… to “It was a pro-Ukrainian group”… to “It was the Ukrainian security forces — but not Zelenskyy himself.”
What will the next tale be?

We do not know. Yet we hazard we will be dealt one.
Is the business a clever ruse to discredit the theory of American responsibility?
Is the United States “throwing Ukraine under the bus,” as the phrase runs… thus beginning to distance itself from the Kyiv regime?
We do not know the answer. Yet our spooks are on the case.

We have yet to receive definitive word from them — though fascinating whispers begin to circulate.
What is a fellow to believe? Who is he to believe?
May we forgive him for clinging to “conspiracy theories”?
After all, he is knocked over the head with official tales that shift from day to day, from week to week, from month to month, from year to year.

Who Can You Trust?
Argues Mr. Taibbi:
Specialists in “anti-disinformation” insist a goal of foreign fake news artists is to assault the reasoning process itself, making populations distrust once-reliable sources, leaving them susceptible to conspiracy theories. If that’s true, how is it not provably the case that domestic officials are playing the same game, moving goalposts on everything from the origin of the coronavirus to vaccine efficacy to Nord Stream?

The Nord Stream narrative has now gone from “No one thinks anyone but Russia did it” to “It’s a mystery!” to “There’s no evidence Russia did it” to “Pro-Ukraine saboteurs may have done it” to “The U.S. and its allies have known for nearly a year Kyiv did it, but said otherwise the whole time.”

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He concludes with the central question, the essential question:
What are we supposed to think next time officials make statements after a disaster? Are we supposed to forget all this background?
Indeed… what are we supposed to think?

Regardless of the answer, we invite you to reflect upon this cardinal fact:
The government of the United States either A: executed the pipeline blasting itself, or…
B: The government of the United States was complicit in the most enormous act of eco-terrorism ever perpetrated — that doubled as a war act against a principal NATO ally.

That is, either the government of the United States executed the dynamiting… or was informed of the plot… and chose to keep it dark… thus blessing a war act against a primary ally… perpetrated by the government it is supporting materially in war against Russia.
How do you like it?

Putin Did It, Putin Did It!!!
Meantime, the United States and its allies continue to blame Russia for every misfortune — even misfortune against Russia itself.
An armed drone recently impacted the Kremlin itself, working some slight damage. Who was responsible?

Naturally it was Russia, came the chorus cries. They yelled that it was a “false flag” operation ordered by the dictator Putin to rally his people to his side.

It would write the warrant for some form of retaliatory atrocity — a retaliatory atrocity that, weeks later, the Russian dictator has yet to execute.

Now, this week, the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine burst.

The resulting torrents have flooded vast tracts of land and wrought fantastic environmental damage.
Who was responsible for the cataclysm?

Once again old Vladimir is the culprit. Those who initially fingered him for the pipeline and who subsequently fingered him for the drone Kremlin attack… are now fingering him for the dam burst.

Yet a question surfaces: Why would the man wreck the dam?

A Head-Scratcher
The Russian armed forces have spent months and months erecting minefields, trenchworks and other defensive positions in the area.
The flooding undid all of these herculean efforts — and threatened to drown the men occupying the trenches.

Moreover, the dam burst threatens to derail water supplies that nourish vital Crimea.
Finally, the burst potentially imperils the safe operation of the nearby Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant presently under Russian control.

Wonders commentator Thomas Luongo:
Why would Russia attack a dam in territory they control that provides local power to Kherson, cooling water to the ZNPP and fresh water to Crimea?

Is There Anything Putin Won’t Do to Hurt Himself?
We must conclude that this Putin is a very, very self-detesting and sadomasochistic fellow.
First he blasts his own energy pipeline in a determined effort to wreck his nation’s economy.
Next he orders a strike against his very seat of power that humiliates himself by exposing Moscow’s vulnerability to air attack.
Finally he bursts a dam and works incalculable damage upon his own strategic interests — and potentially risks a nuclear meltdown.
Is there no atrocity this man will not inflict upon himself?

Next, we hazard, he will sit upon a nuclear bomb — and pull the pin — merely to spite himself
Would you put it past him?

In fairness — in fairness — we do not know who blasted open the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine.

We even admit the possibility that Vladimir himself executed the atrocity. Some have advanced theories chronicling his possible motivations.
Some such theories — by our lights — are even plausible.

Yet after the false pipeline accusations… and after (likely) false drone assault accusations…

Why should we trust the dam burst accusations?

“Does anyone believe American propaganda anymore?”

Beha'alotcha
This week’s Parsha of Beha’alotcha starts on a high with the mandate to kindle the Menorah daily. It then moves on to describe the circumstances of Pesach Shaini (the 2nd Pesach). We then go on a quail hunt and witness the re-distribution of power. All this plus a little LASHON HARA—gossip by way of Miriam—all combine to offer up to us a rather all-encompassing Parsha..

While all of the above is well known, one short section of the portion has become one of our Synagogue favorites.Every time we remove and replace the Torah from the Ark we recite VAYEHI BINSOA HaARON and UVNUCHO-- the very same verses recited by the Israelites in the desert when they marched with the ARK as described in this morning's reading.

Apparently, these verses were so significant that they are singled out with brackets surrounding them. Even the brackets are extraordinary. They are inverted NUNS, two Hebrew letters, upside down. Normally an extra letter of any sort disqualifies the Torah from use and here, not only do we have extra letters but these letters-be they brackets-are upside down- apparently written incorrectly.

Some commentaries explain that these bracketed two verses create a book onto itself. Imagine a whole Book of the Bible devoted to the comings and goings of the ARK.

‘VAYEHI BINSOA HaARON—When the Ark traveled’. But it wasn't just the Ark traveling. The People of Israel traveled alongside, in a precise order. The Israelites and their Ark started and stopped together. What an amazing sight; The Ark filled with the hopes of a People and their Creator, inspiring the People to forge ahead and fulfill their destiny. YES—a sight worth singing about.

But the text cautions us—that at times the Ark is ready to travel on but we need some motivation to get up and go. We are not always ready to follow and thereby realize our destiny.

At times it appears that our lives have come to an abrupt stop—a dead end. Like the upside-down NUNS, our plans and our very lives seem turned upside down. Many a time we feel we are being left behind as time and history march on. The Ark containing our dreams and hopes for the future move on and we miss the train and get left at the station.

All too often, be it with family matters, marriage, friendships, our children and even in our professions, things keep moving but for some reason, we find ourselves out of the loop. Many a project or program having advanced, leaving us behind.

All too often we rationalize and convince ourselves—it was not meant to be'-- letting ideas and opportunities pass us by. How often do we avoid a situation of ‘change', opting for the comfortable status quo; afraid of something that appears different? How often have our friends and associates run ahead with ideas and plans leaving us behind because we're just too afraid to move out of our box?

All too often we send our kids to school or shul, opting to remain on the spiritual and physical sidelines rather than moving along with them.

Yes, the fear of traveling on the road of life can at times appear overwhelming. It can force us at times to contemplate pulling over to the side of the road of life and just waiting it all out. We tend to forget that to get to our true destination, we have to re-enter the highway called life and move forward.

WAZE shows us the way. Global Positioning from above. Nothing new—Directions and suggestions from above and ever present—available to all at the push of a button.—AND IT’S CALLED—TORAH and TRADITION, our age old successful roadmap of life.

For strength, direction and what to watch out for on the highway of daily life, just position yourself with the Book of Life-a Torah filled with safe and sound tips for a continuing successful life’s journey. Whatever you do—don't get left behind! —Latch on to the Ark of Torah and Mitzvot - and enjoy the spectacular journey…Shabbat Shalom…

Rabbi Dr. Mordecai E. Zeitz
[email protected]

Congregation Beth Tikvah
Ahavat Shalom Nusach Hoari

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https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/23/econo...ngs/index.html

Former Fed Chair Bernanke argues economy must slow further to bring down inflation

By Bryan Mena, CNN

Published 7:18 PM EDT, Tue May 23, 2023


Washington, DCCNN —
Former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who steered the central bank during the Great Recession,argued in a newly released paper that the Fed still has more work to do to bring inflation down.

“Looking forward, with labor market slack still below sustainable levels and inflation expectations modestly higher, we conclude that the Fed is unlikely to be able to avoid slowing the economy to return inflation to target,” Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist, wrote in the paper released Tuesday.

Inflation has cooled in the past several months, according to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the Consumer Price Index, though some Fed officials have said that it’s not cooling fast enough.The new study co-authored by the former Fed chair argued that the labor market has become a larger contributor of inflation, and might prove to be a stubborn source of price pressures that might only be remedied by an economic downturn.

Indeed, the labor market remains on strong footing. Employers added 253,000 jobs in April and average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% that month. Jobless claims remain relatively low — though they have trended up in recent weeks — and job openings still exceed the number of unemployed people seeking work.
“Overheating in the labor market has played a minor role but an increasing one over time. As price shocks fade, it is likely to be the dominant factor, requiring a slowdown of the economy to return inflation to target,” Bernanke and Blanchard wrote in a slide show of their paper presented at a forum hosted by the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC.

The paper analyzed the causes of inflation’s ascension in 2021 and how it has evolved since.

Inflationary pressures began in the goods market that year as commodity prices spiked and American consumers, flush with stimulus payments at the time, dealt with the goods shortages, according to the study. Overall inflation crept up throughout that year, then the Fed began to raise interest rates in March 2022 from near zero.

The central bank has seen some progress since raising interest rates 10 times in a row, though bank stresses emerged earlier this year as inflation slowed, raising some concerns over the effects of the Fed’s aggressive rate hiking campaign. Despite the failures of three regional banks since March, the Fed still raised interest rates two more times during that period.

After officials voted unanimously to raise the central bank’s benchmark lending rate by a quarter point earlier this month, they indicated in their post-meeting statement that a future pause in rate hikes is now a possibility.

But some Fed officials have indicated in recent speeches and interviews that they’re not yet convinced that inflation is on a certain path toward the central’s banks 2% target, intensifying the debate over raising rates again or pausing.

Data gauging the state of the labor market in coming weeks and a CPI report during the Fed’s two-day meeting in mid-June will further inform officials on whether to opt for an additional rate hike or a pause. Officials will also be taking into consideration credit conditions and the lagged effects of tighter monetary policy, which could further dampen demand.

Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said during a conference on Monday that the time when rising interest rates begin to notably impact the broader economy “is getting nearer and we have to be extremely mindful thatthat built up slowing is already in the chain could start to show through at any point in time.”

“And when you add the credit tightening that we’ve been seeing to that, it means that there’s a lot of factors pulling back the reins on the economy and that’s why we have to be so critically data-dependent, because if we think it’s not here yet and then we tighten too much, we can easily create an unforced error where we’ve over tightened,” Daly, said.

https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blo...-dollarization

The Shanghai International Gold Exchange and Its Role in De-Dollarization

https://cdn-img.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/jan-icon.jpg

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs

Published: June 09, 2023

TABLE OF CONTENTS:
IntroductionThe Chinese Domestic Gold MarketThe Shanghai International Gold ExchangeChina’s Balance of Payments, Cross-border Trade Statistics, and SGE WithdrawalsConclusionAppendix
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This article is a primer on the Chinese gold market, more specifically the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI). The SGEI facilitates “offshore” gold trading in renminbi and can play a crucial role in de-dollarization, as it allows countries to use renminbi as a trade currency that can be converted into gold without affecting China’s balance of payments. De-dollarization can be accomplished by using yuan to settle international trade and store surpluses in gold through the SGEI.
https://cdn-img.gainesvillecoins.com...rf-6367753.jpg
Chinese Yuan, Gold, and De-Dollarization

Introduction
In the Chinese gold market two circuits can be distinguished. Simplified, there is gold trading in the domestic market and in Free Trade Zones (FTZs). The domestic market is separated from FTZs and the rest of the world by the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), that controls import into and export from the domestic market. Gold import and export between FTZs and the rest of the world is not regulated by the PBoC. The SGEI is located in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SFTZ) to spur international gold trading in renminbi.

The Chinese Domestic Gold Market
Let’s first examine the Chinese domestic gold market with the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) at its core before we discuss the ins and outs of the SGEI.
Prior to 2002 the PBoC was the primary dealer in the Chinese gold market. With the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) in 2002 the market was slowly liberalized and took over price setting and gold allocation from the central bank. By 2007 liberalization was completed as by then most wholesale supply and demand flowed through the SGE.

Laws and tax incentives funnel most supply—mine output, imports, and recycled gold—towards the SGE, which for liquidity reasons automatically attracts most demand. The SGE has its own chain of integrity, meaning only certified refineries can load-in gold bars into SGE vaults. To guarantee all metal in the SGE vaulting system is of the right quality, bars withdrawn from the vaults are not allowed to re-enter before having been remelted by a certified refiner. Every month the SGE publishes the tonnage of gold withdrawn from its vaults, which can be interpreted as wholesale demand.

From the SGE rulebook:
gold bullion will no longer be accepted into any [SGE] Certified Vault once it has been withdrawn by a member or customer.
Import into and export from the domestic market is referred to as "general trade," and in the case of gold it’s controlled by the PBoC. Twenty or so enterprises are authorized to import and export standard gold*, but for every batch they need a new License by the PBoC. Because the Chinese government has a policy of storing gold among the people to strengthen China’s economic security, imports are usually not restricted, as opposed to exports that are more or less prohibited. Panda Coins, for example, will be allowed to be exported from the domestic market, but that’s about it.

Since 2004 jewelry fabricators and alike located in mainland China can sell their products abroad though "processing trade." For processing trade no PBoC License is required; under this framework enterprises can freely import into and export gold from FTZs. A fabricator can import raw materials into a FTZ, manufacture products, and export the finished goods. Needless to say, any entity wanting to import gold from a FTZ into the domestic market needs approval by the PBoC.
/images/blog/2023/06/chinese-gold-market.png
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Cross-border trade in the Chinese gold market.

The Shanghai International Gold Exchange
To slowly open up China’s financial markets, enhance the connection between the international gold market and the Chinese domestic market, and push renminbi internationalization the SGEI was launched in 2014 in the SFTZ. The SGE is often referred to as the Main Board (MB) and the SGEI as the International Board (IB). The SGEI is fully owned by the SGE (the Exchange hereafter).

Both foreign and Chinese residents can trade MB as well as IB gold contracts on the Exchange. Though, foreigners can only load-in and load-out gold into and from IB vaults in the SFTZ, while Chinese residents can only load-in and load-out gold into and from MB vaults in the domestic market. The exception is that those eligible to import gold under general trade may sell gold located in IB vaults into the domestic market**. Below is an overview of what privileges which traders have with respect to MB and IB contracts.
/images/blog/2023/06/mb-and-ib-contracts-and-priviliges.png

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The product codes are the contract names. This overview is from a few years ago (source: Spot Trading Rules of the Shanghai Gold Exchange). I can’t find an update of this overview on the website of the Exchange, but I don’t think the essence has changed.

Foreigners and Chinese residents can thus add liquidity to MB and IB contracts but can only physically move metal on their own side of the fence. As a result, neither will trade gold on the other side for reasons other than making markets, arbitrage, and speculation. Chinese long-term investors, in example, are not likely to buy metal in the SFTZ as they can’t withdraw that metal. Foreigners wanting to withdraw and repatriate will trade IB contracts.

Another feature of the Exchange is that it commingles onshore and offshore renminbi, providing a platform for arbitrage between the two.
China’s Balance of Payments, Cross-border Trade Statistics, and SGE Withdrawals

To understand everything related to the SGEI, we need to drill a little deeper into international trade. What is often misunderstood is that a country’s current account—part of its Balance of Payments, BOP—is not a reflection of goods and services crossing its border. Current accounts register the value of goods and services exchanged between domestic and foreign residents, wherever these residents are located. Cross-border trade statistics (International Merchandise Trade Statistics, IMTS), on the other hand, record the value of goods physically being moved across borders irrespective of the buyer and seller’s nationalities.
Should a European bullion bank ship gold from London to an SGEI vault in the SFTZ, this will show up in global IMTS but doesn’t affect China’s BOP. When this batch is bought by an Indian investor, withdrawn from an SGEI vault, and exported to a designation of the owners’ discretion, the trade has circumvented China’s current account although it was settled with yuan. To be clear, for IMTS data it’s irrelevant if goods are shipped into a FTZ or the domestic market, as long as it crosses an international border an import and export are recognized.

Now we have reached a basic understanding of the SGEI, we need to examine a few additional elements to complete our analysis. Regarding IMTS figures, only non-monetary gold movements across borders are recorded. Monetary gold, which is metal owned by a monetary authority such as a central bank, is exempt from being reported in IMTS. From the United Nations IMTS rulebook:
Since monetary gold is treated as a financial asset rather than a good, transactions pertaining to it should be excluded from international merchandise trade statistics.

We could be misled when reviewing Chinese net import, in example, if a bank imports gold into the SFTZ, which is then bought by the central bank of Saudi Arabia (SAMA) on the SGEI, and then invisibly exported as monetary gold. The moment SAMA buys non-monetary gold, the metal is monetized—as prescribed by the IMF—and is subsequently eclipsed from cross-border trade statistics. This is how central banks move gold across the globe under the radar. IMTS would display the non-monetary gold import into China but not the monetary gold export, leading to an overstatement of Chinese net import. The reverse is also true: a central bank shipping monetary gold to the SFTZ would be invisible until it is bought by the private sector and de-monetized.

In final, the Exchange discloses an aggregate number for the monthly weight of gold withdrawn from SGE and SGEI vaults combined. At the surface, this number is difficult to put into perspective. Total load-out volume could all end up in the domestic market—being a useful reflection of Chinese wholesale demand—or a chunk of it is exported as (non-)monetary gold from the SFTZ. Luckily, I have insider knowledge from a source at the SGEI. In 2015, this person told me that virtually all IB trading was done by Chinese banks for importing gold into the domestic market. More recently he wrote me that little gold withdrawn from IB vaults is exported abroad. Total withdrawals thus mainly relate to Chinese demand.

Conclusion
As demonstrated, gold trading in renminbi on the SGEI can be compared to offshore gold trading in the London Bullion Market with US dollars. As such, the SGEI is part of China’s ambitions to internationalize the renminbi to the detriment of the dollar.
Many commentators in the financial blogosphere state China’s closed capital account is holding back the offshore renminbi market from competing with the Eurodollar (offshore dollar) market. True, though PBoC swap lines promote the international use of renminbi, and as Zoltan Pozsar noted in the In Gold We Trust 2023 report: “China has a swap line with everybody.” With which he meant thirty-two counterparties.
/images/blog/2023/06/pboc-swap-lines.png

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PBoC swap lines, courtesy Council on Foreign Relations.

Confirming what we have discussed is a speech by Teng Wei, Deputy General Manager of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange, from 2016:
The international board uses renminbi for pricing and settlement, which effectively connects the onshore and offshore renminbi market …. It also provides a new channel for the return of funds, which is a useful exploration for expanding the cross-border flow of renminbi and steadily promoting the internationalization of renminbi.
…
The journey of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange will epitomize the opening of China’s financial markets to the outside world and play an important part in the internationalization of the renminbi. With Shanghai becoming the third most important market in the world after London and New York, the Chinese gold market will make a great contribution to the internationalization of the renminbi.

Renminbi reserve currency status is still far away because yuan held overseas can’t freely be invested in Chinese assets such as bonds and other securities due to China’s closed capital account. Renminbi can, however, be converted into gold without limits.

Last month Russian news outlet TASS reported the BRICS nations are working on a common currency for international payments. “The idea of creating a common currency, although I would probably call it a payment unit inside BRICS countries, is floating around and is being discussed. We also have proposals about using digital financial assets supported by real assets, for example gold stable coins," Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said.
These gold stable coins are most likely to represent gold held in SGEI vaults, Moscow, or other cities in Brazil, South-Africa, or India. Time will tell if the BRICS will materialize this new payment system that incorporates gold, and if the SGEI will be used more by international players.
Appendix

* In China standard gold must be a bar or ingot weighing 50g, 100g, 1Kg, 3Kg or 12.5Kg, with a minimum fineness of 995.0, 999.0, 999.5, or 999.9 parts per thousand.

** Technically, an enterprise eligible for import may load-in metal into IB vaults and sell these metals as deliverable on the MB, provided it has a PBoC License. When the buyer wants to withdraw this gold, the Exchange will make sure it will be loaded out from a vault in the domestic market. That is the easy way of explaining it. For the exact rules please read the Detailed Delivery Rules of Shanghai Gold Exchange:
The Exchange has established a network of Certified Vaults to facilitate physical delivery through the Exchange as well as bullion storage and other transactions by members and customers. Certified Vaults are classified into Main Board Certified Vaults (the MB Certified Vaults) and International Board Certified Vaults (the IB Certified Vaults). MB Certified Vaults provide bullion storage, load-in and load-out services to Domestic Members and Domestic Customers. IB Certified Vaults provide bullion storage, load-in and load-out services to International Members, International Customers, and any Domestic Members and Domestic Customers who are qualified to import and export gold [have a PBoC License], as well as in acting as their agent in making customs declarations for bullion to be transported into or out of bonded zones [FTZs]. IB Certified Vaults shall accept the supervision of the customs authorities of China.
…
Authorized International Members and International Customers may deposit International Board bullion into IB Certified Vaults and, subject to relevant approved quota [PBoC License], may deposit Main Board bullion into IB Certified Vaults. No International Member or International Customer is permitted to deposit bullion into MB Certified Vaults.

Read more insights about the international gold trade from the author:
The Gold Observer (Substack)
COMEX Gold Futures Explained Part 1: The Basics
Is Saudi Arabia Selling Oil to China for Gold?
The Hierarchy of Money and the Case for $8,000 Gold
Zoltan Pozsar, the Four Prices of Money, and the Coming Gold Bull Market
How a Central Bank in the Caribbean Recently Used Its Gold Revaluation Account to Cover Losses

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https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/i...tics-of-fools/

QUESTION: Dear Martin,
DeSantis announced his run for the Republican candidacy. You’ve mentioned several times he would be eaten by the career politicians in Washington. What if he becomes Trump’s running mate? Would that be a good course?
Sincerely, Martijn

ANSWER: That would be the only way I would see DeSantis as having any real influence. As I have said, I was asked if I would talk Trump out of running and join the advisory team for DeSantis last year. I declined. I replied that everything has changed and that they would just eat him for lunch as they did to Trump when he first walked into Washington.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ster-Bunny.png

Washington has declined so much so, that the fools on the Hill now think just switching to a Republican will make it all better. The Biden administration has inflicted so much political damage as well as division among the people, the USA must fall. It cannot stand as one nation with such division. And it is not even Biden – who is the real symbol of the Fool on the Hill. He is only the puppet just like the last emperors of Rome.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...untthevote.bmp

I do not care that the propaganda claims the election of 2020 was not rigged. Of course, it was, but not by the Democrats. They too are naive. The Deep State is in full control. The CIA convinced Trump to delay the release of JFK files until after the election. They played Trump like a fiddle. When Biden got in, he granted their perpetual stay to cover up their involvement. The FBI was out to prevent a Trump victory. Anyone who thinks that the CIA, NSA, or FBI cannot change the vote is an even bigger fool. They should grab a gun and go fight for Zelensky.

NONE of this from war to climate would have taken place under Trump. I said I had gone to Mara Largo in March 2020 for dinner and that is when Trump actually impressed me. He said he would pull the troops out of Afghanistan because he was tired of writing letters to parents explaining their son died for God and their country. He said they were fighting over borders that for 1,000 years. What difference are we going to make?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...Trump-Coin.jpg

Perhaps you will remember in January 2019, Iran shot down an American drone. There is no question that John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser at the time, was provoking Iran-U.S. tensions. He wanted another war. Quite frankly, Bolton would invade Canada to hunt down a Russian. Trump fired the Neocons, and rightly so. There is NO WAY they will allow a free election in 2024 and as a last resort they will assassinate Trump for now he understands the real game in Washington. They can now freely assassinate him since they are moving to digital currency and won’t have to look at his face on a coin or dollar bill.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...Deep-State.jpg

Trump is clearly the better choice because he knows the real game now in Washington. They will eat DeSantis for lunch and spit him out. The Deep State is in full control. And for those who hate Trump, don’t be fooled. Sorry, Dorothy, you are not in Kansas anymore. Party politics is DEAD! This is the decline and fall of the United States and Western Civilization. You have 8.6 years left. In Washington, this has become the politics of fools. The more they lose control, the more totalitarian they will become.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...Tedros-WHO.jpg

The World Health Organization (WHO) can make recommendations after the declaration of a global emergency. It has no definitive control over any nation’s decisions. However, as we saw with COVID, countries bow to the WHO and that included the Biden Administration. The left zealots love to scream loudly that conservatives falsely claim that amendments proposed by the Biden administration to existing global health regulations, and a new WHO pandemic treaty, will threaten U.S. sovereignty. They are actually correct, but not that the WHO will have absolute control. That would be UNCONSTITUTIONAL. But the Biden Administration wants to push for “voluntary” compliance and surrender our policy to conform to that of the WHO.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...ganization.jpg

Trump was correct – NATO and the WHO should be defunded. They are both power-hungry organizations that exert only their own self-interests. When Communism fell, there was no longer a need for NATO. The days of Kruschev were gone. Putin, Yeltsin, and Gorbachev were never interested in invading Europe to spread communism. That boast died long ago.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...l-bury-you.jpg

The American NEOCONS adopted the opposite view that they would conquer the world and spread their version of “democracy” which is really their pretend version of a free government since they are never elected. NATO had no purpose but kept the idea that Russia wanted to conquer the world. They have always promoted war – never peace.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w...Government.jpg

From the very beginning of the UN, they too have dreamed of becoming the one-world government. This remains the agenda and they too promote war in hopes of rising in their glory to become the great peacemaker and solidify their power. This is why the exercise of power at the WHO is surfacing and it is all promoted by the World Economic Forum which is the Marxist brainchild of Schwab.

The United Nations from the very beginning was against personal freedom. They always advocated complete control which is what is now taking place.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/w.../12/Huxley.jpg

Categories: ECM, Ethics, Politics
« Is the Rise of LGBTQ Part of the Decline & Fall of the West?

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10. Bringing Eruvin To Life
11. Brisker Methodology
12. Chalitzah Shoe Constructed
13. Chidudai Oraysa - Daily Quiz
14. Daf Biyun with Rabbi Rosner
15. Daf HaShavua in Yiddish
16. Daf Hachaim Daf Yomi
17. Daf Hachaim Intro
18. Daf Hachaim Mesechta Overview
19. Daf Hachaim Review
20. Daf Hachaim Review Print Version
21. Daf Hashavua
22. Daf Hashavua Iyun Sugya
23. Daf Hashavua with Rabbi Daniel Glatstein
24. Daf Headlines with Dovid Lichtenstein
25. Daf Sugya with Rabbi Elefant
26. Daf Yomi B'Iyun - Real Clear Daf
27. Daf Yomi Masechta Review
28. Daf Yomi MoeMents
29. Daf Yomi Quiz
30. Daf Yomi by Rabbi Eli Stefansky
31. Daf Yomi with David Retter
32. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Bernath
33. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Bornstein
34. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Elefant
35. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Elefant - Cycle 14
36. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Gavriel Friedman
37. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Lebowitz
38. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Mansour
39. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Rosner
40. Daf Yomi with Rabbi Rubin
41. Daf Yomi with Shaul C. Greenwald
42. Daf in Depth
43. Daf in Halacha
44. Daf in Practice
45. Gemara from OU
46. JLIC Amud Yomi
47. Jewish History in Daf Yomi
48. Kodshim Chaburah
49. Lomdus On The Daf
50. Make a Siyum: Yerushalmi Makkos
51. Mekoros L'Havana V'Iyun
52. Mesechtos Katanos
53. Mishna on the Daf
54. New Vistas in Lomdus
55. OU Daf Yomi Initiative
56. Parparaos HaDaf
57. Pesach Content
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60. Pilpulei Oraysa
61. Q&A Daf Yomi Review - Real Clear Daf
62. Rabbi Adin Steinsaltz on Daf
63. Rabbi Aharon Sorscher - 10 Min Iyun Highlights
64. Rabbi Aharon Sorscher - Full Iyun Shiur
65. Rabbi Aharon Sorscher Amud Shiur
66. Rabbi Aharon Sorscher Chazarah Shiur
67. Rabbi Akiva Medlov Amud Shiur
68. Rabbi Akiva Medlov Review
69. Rabbi Aron Mordechai Lubelsky
70. Rabbi Dr. Eliezer Brodt
71. Rabbi Dr. Eliezer Brodt - On The Mesechta
72. Rabbi Kahn on Aggada
73. Rabbi Mordechai Shuchatowitz
74. Rabbi Yaakov Moshe Katz Iyun Shiur
75. Rav Soloveitchik Along the Daf
76. Reflections on the Daf with Rabbi Weinreb
77. Reid Bites
78. Rosh Hashanah Illuminated
79. Shas Illuminated
80. Shas Topics
81. Shev Shmaisa
82. Short Machshava on the Daf
83. Sikumai Oraysa
84. Songs of Shas
85. Succah Illuminated
86. Sugyas HaDaf
87. Talmud Yerushalmi
88. Talmudic Methodology
89. Teshuvos Rebbe Akiva Eiger
90. The 13 Rules of Rabbi Yishmael
91. The Daf Academy
92. The Daf Academy: Special Content
93. The Daf Companion
94. The Quick Daf - Rabbi Zecharia Resnik
95. The Quick Yerushalmi
96. Topics In Shas From The Rav
97. Torah in the City: Gemara
98. Tosafos with Rabbi Schwartzberg
99. Tumas Kohanim Explored
100. Yerushalmi Shevi'is
101. Yerushalmi With Rabbi Shalom Rosner
102. Yerushalmi with Rabbi Chaim Aryeh Zev Ginzberg
103. Zichru Coaching
104. Zichru Daf Simanim
105. Zichru Perek Learning Maps
106. Zichru Quizzes

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13. Bein Chol L'Kodesh
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15. Chasidut on the Parsha
16. Chumash & Rashi Tests
17. Chumash Rashi by Rabbi Shaul Aryeh Rosenberg
18. Contemporary Parshanim
19. Crash Course on Sefer Vayikra
20. Creative Textual Studies on Parsha
21. D'rachim B'Parsha With Rabbi Mordechai Appel
22. Dimensions in Chumash
23. Epilogues - Overview of the Weekly Haftorah
24. Esther Wein on Parsha
25. Five-Minute-Parsha
26. Fundamentals with Rabbi Lopiansky
27. Good Vort
28. Haftarah
29. Haftarah Helper
30. Haftarahman
31. Harry's Video Blog
32. Ha’amek Davar - Netziv by Rabbi Dr. Josh Joseph
33. Insights Into The Parsha - With Rabbi Ephraim Shapiro.
34. Kol Hamikrah
35. Leil Shishi with Yisroel Besser
36. Lessons From The Parsha
37. Lessons from the Tz’enah Ur’enah
38. Likutei Moharan
39. Maharal with Rabbi Hartman
40. Making Sense of Sefer Bereishit
41. Megillas Esther Explained
42. Meor Einayim
43. Meshech Chochmah
44. Nesivos Shalom with Rabbi Ariel Shoshan
45. Novel Parsha Nuances
46. Ohr HaChaim by Rav Eli Mansour
47. Parsha Pearls by Rabbi Yoni Levin
48. Parsha Perspectives
49. Parsha from OU
50. Patterns in the Parsha
51. Perlas de la Tora
52. Pirchei Weekly
53. Pshuto Shel Mikra: From the Teachings of Rav Yehuda Copperman
54. Rabbeinu Bachaye on Parsha
55. Rabbi Ari Kahn on Parsha
56. Rabbi Aryeh Lebowitz on the Parsha
57. Rabbi Daniel Glatstein on Haftarah
58. Rabbi Daniel Glatstein on Parsha
59. Rabbi Dr. Gidon Rothstein on Haftarah
60. Rabbi Dr. Sholom Gold on Parsha
61. Rabbi Elimelech Biderman on the Parsha
62. Rabbi Eytan Feiner on the Parsha
63. Rabbi Fox on Parsha
64. Rabbi Frand on the Parsha
65. Rabbi Gavriel Friedman On The Parsha
66. Rabbi Genack On The Parsha
67. Rabbi Goldin on Parsha
68. Rabbi Immanuel Bernstein on Parsha
69. Rabbi Isaac Bernstein on the Parsha
70. Rabbi Menachem Leibtag on Parsha
71. Rabbi Moshe Elefant on the Parsha
72. Rabbi Moshe Hauer On The Parsha
73. Rabbi Moshe Taragin on Parsha
74. Rabbi Nissan Kaplan On The Parsha
75. Rabbi Sacks on Parsha
76. Rabbi Shalom Rosner on The Parsha
77. Rabbi Taub on Parsha
78. Rabbi Weinreb on Parsha
79. Rabbi Y. Dov Krakowski on Parsha
80. Rabbi Yisroel Reisman on Parsha - PDF
81. Rabbi Yisroel Reisman on the Parsha
82. Rabbi Yochanan Bechhofer on Parsha
83. Ramban on the Parsha with Rabbi Glatstein
84. Rav Hirsch
85. Rav Moshe Ahron Friedman On The Parsha
86. Rav Soloveichik On The Parsha - by Rabbi Steven Weil
87. Rethinking the Messages of Sefer Bereshit
88. Seforno by Rabbi Elazar Meisels
89. Sfas Emes & Gerrer Dynasty
90. Shira Smiles on Parsha
91. Shnayim Mikra
92. Sleepless Sermon
93. Sodot HaParsha
94. Special Chanukah Content
95. Spirituality in the Parsha
96. Targum Onkelos – in English!
97. The Complete Targum Onkelos
98. The Haftorah Journey
99. The Parsha Challenge
100. The Quick Parsha Recap
101. The Quick Parsha with Rabbi Zecharia Resnik
102. The Quick Vort With Rabbi Zecharia Resnik
103. The Rav on the Parsha
104. The Shmuz
105. The Weekly Haftarah
106. The Weekly Mitzva
107. ThinkingJ
108. Thought On The Parsha With Rav Asher Weiss
109. Torah Insights
110. Torah Insights Classic
111. Torah Tapestries
112. Torah Tidbits Audio
113. Torah Tidbits Parsha Summary
114. Torat Imecha Parsha
115. Tumas Kohanim Explored
116. Vayigdal Moshe
117. Virtual Drasha with Rabbi Shmuel Silber
118. Weekly Parsha Message by Rabbi Moshe Hauer
119. Zera Shimshon
120. ibn Shuiv on Parsha
121. דברים קצרים English Subtitles
122. תורת חיים: Torah as a Way of Life

MISHNA

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7. Masechta Intro with Rabbi Joel Padowitz
8. Mishna Yomit
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10. Mishnah Rishona
11. Mishnayos - Well Explained
12. Pirkei Avos with Rabbi Elefant
13. Pirkei Avos: Connecting the Tannaim With Their Lessons
14. Rabbi Avi Rosalimsky on the Mishnah
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16. Rabbi Ezra Wiener on Mishna Yomit
17. Rabbi Joel Padowitz On The Mishnah
18. Rabbi Sruly Bornstein on the Mishnah
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20. Rabbi Zev Leff on Pirkei Avot
21. Rambam on Pirkei Avot
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24. The Quick Mishnah with Rabbi Zecharia Resnik
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28. Time4Mishna
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30. Zichru Mishnah Simanim
31. Rabbi Hertzka Greenfeld on the Mishnah

NACH

1. A Journey Through Nach
2. Bad Guys of the Bible
3. Life Lessons From Mishlei
4. Megillat Esther in Depth
5. Mishlei: Wisdom for Life
6. Nach Yomi
7. Nach Yomi in Depth
8. Nach on OU
9. One+One
10. Pesukei-HaDaf
11. Rabbi Dr. Yitzchak Breitowitz on Nach
12. Rabbi Dr. Yitzchak Breitowitz on Shir HaShirim
13. Rabbi Etshalom on Esther
14. Rabbi Reuven Taragin on Kohelet
15. Rabbi Reuven Taragin on Sefer Iyov
16. Rabbi Rosner on Nach
17. Rebbetzin Pearl Borow on Nach
18. Shani Taragin on Nach
19. Tehillim 150
20. Torah New York: Tanach
21. Torat Imecha Nach Yomi

MITZVOT

1. Meaning in Mitzvot
2. Minchat Chinuch
3. Mitzvos Hashkulos
4. Sefer Hamitzvot
5. Seven Universal Laws
6. Shorashim
7. Six Constant Mitzvot
8. Taryag

KASHRUT

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HALACHA

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5. Business Halacha Daily
6. Daily Dose of Halacha
7. Dalet Amot of Halacha
8. Dirshu Mishnah Brurah Yomi
9. HaShoneh Halachos
10. HaShoneh Halachos 2: Mishneh Torah
11. Halacha L'Maaseh
12. Halacha and Medina
13. Halacha in Business
14. Halacha on OU
15. Halachic Highlights
16. Halachic and Hashkafic Issues in Contemporary Society
17. Headlines
18. Hilchos Lashon Hara
19. Hilchot Bein Adam l’Chaveiro
20. Hilchot Brachot
21. Hilchot Kibud Av v’Eim
22. Mishna Berura Daf Hashavua
23. Mishnah Brurah Iyun Chaburah
24. MoneyHalacha
25. OU Kosher Halacha Yomis
26. Ohr Olam Mishnah Berurah
27. Practical Halacha
28. Rabbi Kahn on Halacha
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30. Shiurim on Halacha
31. Shloshim Yom Kodem HeChag
32. The 39 Melachos
33. The Laws of Brachos
34. Timely Topics in Halacha
35. Torah New York: Halacha
36. Yoreh Deah

MACHSHAVA

1. 19 Letters
2. A Short Burst of Biography
3. A Taste of Torah Live
4. Ani Maamin: But Do You Know It’s Really True?
5. Bitachon
6. Body & Soul
7. Change Your Pesach, Change Your Life
8. Chiddushim
9. Chief Rabbi Yitzchak Isaac Halevi Herzog zt"l: His Struggle and Vision for the Body and Soul of Klal Yisrael
10. Chovos Halevavos
11. Daily Emunah
12. Derech Hashem
13. Drashos HaRan
14. Ethics of Eden
15. Great Jewish Thinkers
16. History is HIS Story
17. Horeb
18. Ideas and Inspiration
19. In Conversation...
20. Instant Inspiration
21. Jerusalem
22. Jewish Dietary Laws
23. Jewish Ethicist
24. Kuzari
25. Lessons from Eretz Yisrael
26. Likutei Halachot
27. Machshava from OU
28. Maharal
29. Mesillas Yesharim
30. Moreh Nevuchim
31. NAIM
32. Nuanced Judaism
33. Pain is a Reality, Suffering is a Choice
34. Pardes
35. Parenting and Being Parented
36. Parshas Derachim
37. Q&A With Rabbi Jack
38. Rabbi Dovid Katz on Jewish History
39. Rabbi Kahn on Machshava
40. Ramchal
41. Remembering Rav Chaim Kanievsky ztz"l
42. Rosh Chodesh: Lunch 'n Learn
43. Sefer HaTanya
44. Shiurim on Rambam
45. Shiva
46. Something Different
47. Take Ten for Torah
48. The 13 Foundations
49. The 30th Yahrzeit of the Rav
50. The Biblical Abraham Accords
51. The Giants Who Shaped Modern Orthodoxy
52. The God Papers
53. The Rav in his Own Voice
54. The Thought of Rav Kook on Eretz Yisrael
55. The Thought of Rav Soloveitchik
56. The Way of Hashem, The Path of Man
57. Torah Los Angeles
58. Torah New York: Hashkafa
59. Torah New York: Israel
60. Torah New York: The Rav
61. Torah on One Foot
62. Tzarich Iyun
63. Understanding Judaism
64. Unlocking the Messages in Chazal
65. What Does the Fox Say? Insights Into Perek Shira

TEFILLAH

1. B'himatzo
2. Counting Toward Sinai - Tefillah
3. Counting Toward Sinai – Shabbat Tefillot and Zemirot
4. Counting Toward Sinai: Shemoneh Esrei
5. Kaddish
6. Names
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10. Shemoneh Esrei
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12. Tefillah Workshop
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14. Tefillah: Easier Done Than Said
15. The OU's Daily Tehillim and Chizuk Call
16. The Power of Amen
17. Torah New York: Tefillah
18. Torata
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20. Yemei Ratzon: Tefillah
21. Yizkor

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20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.

Thursday, September 25, 2014
A Preview of Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4zHYD5MY44...teenbarger.jpg

One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.

I think Ted Hayes hit on something important in his recent interview. He pointed out that the personality traits relevant to success among early career traders are different from those that generate success for experienced ones. Perhaps so much writing concerns discipline and emotional control, because those are the dominant concerns of the new traders who buy the books, haunt the websites, and seek the help.

At several of the firms where I work, no one even gets an interview unless they have years of experience managing significant capital with a solid track record of profitability and risk management. So by the time those traders join the firm, discipline and emotional control are not screaming priorities. Instead, they deal with other challenges. In Trading Psychology 2.0, I refer to these challenges by A-B-C:


* Adapting to changing markets
* Building on strengths
* Creating creativity

In adapting to different markets by leveraging their strengths and generating new ideas, successful market participants are not so different from successful businesses in fast-changing industries, such as technology or social media. When markets change from year to year, stasis is a formula for failure. The successful trader, like the successful tech firm, must constantly innovate. Moreover, once traders generate those innovations, they must turn best practices--what they do that is successful--and turn them into robust, best processes.

I think this is very, very important: What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines. Conscientiousness makes for success, but it is openness that makes for adaptation. Trading psychology as a field has done a fine job of articulating the importance of discipline. My hope is that the new book will broaden the discussion to include a research-informed look at mastering change and innovation.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS.


For further information please send me an email to [email protected]

5 Minute Chart of Dow 30

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

Ladies & Gentlemen

Everyday between Monday and Friday we have a horse race in the Forex markets. We at Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation have the photo finish of each day's races before the race actually starts so that is our explanation of why my Forex trading account opened on January 12, 2023 has such incredible results.

Please sign up for our 90 day Forex trading course and enjoy 90 days of fun while you learn each day how to become a professional Forex trader.

5 Minute Chart of Dow 30

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=m5

Watch the same pattern between 2:00 AM Eastern Standard Time and 6:00 AM Eastern Standard Time.

It is just like knowing the results each day Monday to Friday of a Horse Race before the race is run.

Major Fortunes are made however no need to bet on a horse race or gamble with your hard-earned money. Just sign up for our 90-day Forex trading Course and let our top-notch team assist you to earn profits on a daily basis following our unique Forex teaching methods.

Our corporation website is WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.

There is no indicator that can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down 1000 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.

Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.


SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.


I think this is very, very important: What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines. Conscientiousness makes for success, but it is openness that makes for adaptation. Trading psychology as a field has done a fine job of articulating the importance of discipline. My hope is that the new book will broaden the discussion to include a research-informed look at mastering change and innovation.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS.


For further information please send me an email to [email protected]

http://www.avielforexlearningedge.co...l#testimonials

TESTIMONIALS


"After the first meeting, I turned my financials over to AVIEL FOREX LEARNING EDGE. They go above and beyond."
Daniel Gates


https://0901.nccdn.net/4_2/000/000/038/2d3/forex.png

As an experienced forex trader and educator, I have helped many people learn how to trade forex successfully and earn a lot of money. My comprehensive approach to trading combines fundamental and technical analysis with risk management strategies to identify profitable trading opportunities.

If you're interested in learning forex trading and earning a lot of money, my 90-day season course is the perfect place to start. This course covers everything from the basics of forex trading to advanced strategies for maximizing your profits. Best of all, for a limited time, I'm offering a 50% discount on the course fee.

During the 90-day course, you'll learn how to read and analyze charts, identify trends and patterns, and use technical indicators to make informed trading decisions. You'll also learn how to manage your risk and minimize losses, so that you can maximize your profits.

One of the most important things you'll learn during the course is the psychology of trading. Trading forex can be stressful and emotional, and it's essential to develop a mindset that allows you to stay calm and focused under pressure. I'll teach you proven techniques for managing your emotions and staying disciplined, so that you can make rational, well-informed trading decisions.

In addition to the 90-day course, I also offer a range of other educational resources, including webinars, coaching programs, and one-on-one mentoring. Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, my goal is to help you achieve success in forex trading and reach your financial goals.

If you're ready to learn forex trading from an experienced professional and start earning a lot of money, sign up for my 90-day season course today. With the 50% discount, you'll get all the knowledge and skills you need to become a successful forex trader at a fraction of the usual cost.

APPLY FOR THE COURSE

Send E Transfer for $125.00 Canadian dollars to [i][u][email protected][/u][/i] {opening special offer}
and join the course.


CONTACTS

Contact us any time - we look forward to meeting you!

[email protected]

https://mishtalk.com/economics/debt-...deal-by-june-1

You need to have the discipline to post here at least once a day. You also need to not fall in the trap of never entering a stop loss.

I have traded without stop losses and only because of my Forex trading skills being at the highest level trading real funds can it be done by myself. However as my good friend and mentor Fred Sheiner taught me to trade without a stop loss is not acceptable because it will lead to severe drawdowns.

When I first started trading cash on March 9, 2006 at Trade Freedom in Montreal and traded under LPOA for 5 or 6 clients until early June 2006, I never had even one trading loss. I doubled the original Forex trading capital from over $100,000 US dollars to $225,000 US dollars in 3 months. I got my first large client with Cyber Planet on October 2, 2006 and my starting cash capital was $100,000 US dollars. In those days I traded mainly EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.

We did not have CFD's in those days. Contracts for Difference.

I did 1502 Forex trades for Jason Budavitch who was the President of Cyber Planet in Hong Kong. My first 672 Forex trades were all done without one loss. I brought the account up to just under $120,000 US dollars in just 35 trading days ending on November 7, 2006.

A 20% profit in 35 days when I was just staring out after actual demo trading with Saxo Bank and others for 3 years before I made my first cash trade on March 9, 2006.

I started the thread on Forex Factory on December 3, 2016 in order to PROVE to myself that I could actually teach some retail Forex traders to earn a minimum of 5% a month. In the last two years because of the opportunity to trade CFD's such as Dow 30 and SP500 short and Gold and Silver long the opportunity to make 25% to 50% monthly for skilled Forex traders with good discipline and good work ethics and strong mental balance is now very possible.

Look at what I have written on my company website. Take the 30 minutes or so to read all the information that I have put on my company website then post any questions that you have.

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Each day around 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time, I determine whether we have RISK ON or RISK OFF.

There is no indicator that can do this just as no technical indicator can effectively predict what will happen moment to moment as one MAJOR fundamental fact whether GEOPOLITICAL or FINANCIAL or now SUPPLY CHAIN or some New Covid 19 variant can cause the markets to go down 1000 points as the Dow 30 has been doing recently and will continue to do.

That is why my Unique Method of Forex trading developed during 2003 when I started trading Forex and later on during 2012 when I added to my business model and started teaching my unique 100% proven method of Money Flow trading.

It is no longer possible to trade without a STOP LOSS PERIOD.

Having a STOP LOSS of fewer than 100 PIPS is not a good strategy. That leads me to explain why most of the 95% of all Retail Forex Traders lose. They trade with small amounts of money and SCALP which makes it almost impossible to make profits over a period of one year because of the VIOLENT NATURE of the swings in the Asset Classes caused by world changing events.

Each Forex Trade that you do should not risk more than 2% of your trading Capital and that is based on trading Capital of $50,000 US Dollars INITIALLY learning on a $50,000 US Funds Demo account just as I did for a period of three years before I made my first Real Funds Trade.

PLEASE GO WITH THE MONEY FLOW

Let us review what we teach and why it works if YOU WORK.

Without your WORK then you are just wasting your time and probably your money.

There is no such thing as Political Correctness here because we are here to teach and share our knowledge.


SO.... going back to our winning FORMULA for FOREX SUCCESS.

20% of the SUCCESS is yourself the Forex Trader.

20% of the SUCCESS is your EDGE which we teach you and that is Money Flow Trading.

20% of the SUCCESS is control of your RISK (Your hard earned money) Our UNIQUE RISK MANAGEMENT allows you to trade without worry, fear and greed. Of course we want to make sure that you have the right qualities to be a winning Forex Trader so our course is for a period of three months, so we can teach you the right trading methods and we can see your results and make adjustments without your FEAR OF LOSS of Real Money.


20% of the SUCCESS is using and understanding the USE of Technical Indicators which include not only the common ones. It includes the understanding of Supply and Demand. Support and Resistance and the use of Pivot Points which you can see each day on our daily charts that cover ALL our Trade Plans which we also help you develop and explain WHY. These are our Winning Trade Plans that we review every three months or earlier if circumstances in the markets require that.

20% of the SUCCESS is the FUNDAMENTALS, which are much more than Data Releases each day around the world. It includes reports and articles extremely well researched as you can clearly see from this article that explains why the TREND in the Equity Markets especially in North America is DOWN. By understanding the difference between PERCEPTIONS (MARKETS) and REALITY, you then have a good handle on REALITY before the MASSES do and you are not surprised when events eventually unfold.

When successful traders aren't trading, they are researching, developing, and innovating. When unsuccessful traders aren't trading, they're staring at screens and forcing trades. There is nothing better for trading psychology than being at the cutting edge of a growing business.

What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines.

One of the great disappointments I encounter when I read writings on the topic of trading psychology is that they invariably touch upon the same themes: discipline, controlling emotions, etc. Having worked with traders and portfolio managers for over a decade now, there is so much more to the psychology of trading than "sticking to your process" that I decided I had to write a book about what I was experiencing but wasn't reading. The title reflects that interest: Trading Psychology 2.0: From Best Practices to Best Processes.

I think Ted Hayes hit on something important in his recent interview. He pointed out that the personality traits relevant to success among early career traders are different from those that generate success for experienced ones. Perhaps so much writing concerns discipline and emotional control, because those are the dominant concerns of the new traders who buy the books, haunt the websites, and seek the help.

At several of the firms where I work, no one even gets an interview unless they have years of experience managing significant capital with a solid track record of profitability and risk management. So by the time those traders join the firm, discipline and emotional control are not screaming priorities. Instead, they deal with other challenges. In Trading Psychology 2.0, I refer to these challenges by A-B-C:


* Adapting to changing markets
* Building on strengths
* Creating creativity

In adapting to different markets by leveraging their strengths and generating new ideas, successful market participants are not so different from successful businesses in fast-changing industries, such as technology or social media. When markets change from year to year, stasis is a formula for failure. The successful trader, like the successful tech firm, must constantly innovate. Moreover, once traders generate those innovations, they must turn best practices--what they do that is successful--and turn them into robust, best processes.

I think this is very, very important: What makes a trader successful is discipline: doing the right thing with fidelity. What keeps a trader successful is innovation: doing new things and turning them into disciplines. Conscientiousness makes for success, but it is openness that makes for adaptation. Trading psychology as a field has done a fine job of articulating the importance of discipline. My hope is that the new book will broaden the discussion to include a research-informed look at mastering change and innovation.

In order to be able to help you better it is VERY IMPORTANT that you share your thoughts and your QUESTIONS.


For further information please send me an email to [email protected]

https://stateofthenation2012.com/?p=14945

The C.I.A. created the ‘Conspiracy Theory’
meme to shut down the Truth Movement
State of the Nation

KEY POINT: Many ‘Conspiracy Theorists’ are actually Conspiracy Realists.
The very best among them are deeply experienced Investigative Journalists
and highly skilled Professional Researchers. Others are greatly respected
Historical Revisionists and University Professors. Then there are those who
are lifelong Truth Seekers, Armchair Detectives and Citizen Reporters. In
the aggregate they represent the Fifth Estate, many of whom contribute
prolifically to the Alt Media. See: The Fifth Estate Casts Its Shadow Like a
Massive Mothership

SOTN Editor’s Note:
The following essay on the “Conspiracy Theory” is perhaps the best ever to appear on the Internet. It clearly delineates the many subtleties and nuances by which the label “Conspiracy Theory” has been used to shut down honest public debate. It also shows how critical thinking on the part of the individual has been discouraged and mocked.
http://stateofthenation2012.com/wp-c...acy-theory.jpg

The various entities which colluded to conceive the label — “Conspiracy Theorist” — knew exactly what they were doing alright. They have been successful in effectively terminating the traversing trajectories of truth-seekers everywhere … over many decades. However, every actual conspiracy designed to deprive the people of the truth is always exposed sooner or later. That time is now!

With the pervasiveness of the Internet throughout societies everywhere, the many once isolated ‘conspiracy theorists’ are now able to collaborate with others of like mind as conspiracy realists. In this way they are able to share their theses and theories about everything. Given this refreshing environment and new climate, the official 9/11 Commission Report has been proven to be a complete fabrication foisted by U.S. Federal Government on the American people. So, too, has the JFK assassination been proven to be a classic CIA Execution Plan.

By inference, the research paper below lays bare a simple fact of life: that the Mainstream Media (MSM) is the single biggest disseminator of the many falsehoods regarding the “Conspiracy Theory”. As a matter of historical fact, the MSM has published countless false conspiracy theories with the explicit purpose of misleading the American people. The utterly ridiculous 9/11 narrative fabricated by the US government as well as the absurd official explanation of President Kennedy’s murder are only two of numerous deliberate deceits. In the interest of protecting the system at all costs, anything that departs from the party line is now labeled a ‘conspiracy theory’ by the MSM.

At the end of the day, the MSM will be regarded as the most prolific purveyor of false conspiracy theories of all time (their utterly implausible 9/11 conspiracy theory really takes the cake). Yes, that time is surely upon us as many signs and events point directly to a fast-approaching day of reckoning.
State of the Nation

May 15, 2015

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

http://themillenniumreport.com/wp-co...st-660x413.jpg

Conspiracy Theories: The Public Trust Skepticism Factor
By Katherine Smith, Ph.D.
“Conspiracy” is a real word for a real event that has existed in human societies in all cultures throughout human history. [Appendix A]
The assassination of the President of the United States on national television by a “lone” assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald, who himself is assassinated the next day by another “lone” assassin—would cause even the most rational skeptic, or critical thinker, to question the institutional narrative of the events.[1]
In other words, the institutional narrative, or official explanation, of a lone assassin, who was in turn assassinated the very next day by another lone assassin, is as epistemically dubious, and as equally “silly and without merit,” as any of the conspiracy theories surrounding the JFK assassination.

The human species has evolved as pattern-seeking, cause-inferring animals. As such, our nature drives us to find meaningful relationships to understand the world. Conspiracy theories are offered as alternate explanation to an important social, political or economic event (henceforward, “The Event”) when the institutional narrative is confusing or unsatisfactory. Conspiracy, originally a neutral term, has acquired a somewhat derogatory meaning since the mid sixties, for it implies a paranoid tendency to see the influence of some malign covert agency in certain events. Conspiracy theorizing has become commonplace in the mass media and emerged as a cultural phenomenon in the United States following the public assassination of JFK.

Noam Chomsky, linguist and scholar, contrasts conspiracy theory as, more or less, the opposite of institutional analysis. The latter focuses mostly on explanations based on the information found in official records of publicly known institutions, whereas the former offers explanations based on information derived from coalitions of individuals.

Most academics, or the rational community, find the conspiracy theories of popular culture to be silly and without merit, and automatically dismiss such alternative explanations as ridiculous, misconceived, unfounded, outlandish and the result of irrational thinking by paranoid schizophrenics. Some academics even contend that conspiracy theories “undermine human social and civic decency in society.”[2]
However, on closer examination, academics can see, and are forced to admit, that there is no systemic flaw to the concept of the conspiracy theory per se, because 1) there have been at least 33 Conspiracy Theories That Turned Out To Be True and 2) it is in the nature of many conspiracy theories that they cannot be falsified; that is, proven to be false.

In Of Conspiracy Theories, Brian Keeley acknowledges this important point but then argues that it’s not the theory that is the problem, but rather the theorist. The theorists, we are told, display a “particular absence or deformities of critical thinking skills when they refuse to accept the institutional explanation of The Event.” He further wonders whether the problem lies in our teaching methods.[3]

Keeley refers to the numerous historically verified conspiracy theories as Warranted Conspiracy Theories (WCTs), as opposed to theories that have not, or cannot, be verified and are thus, according to Keeley, Unwarranted Conspiracy Theories, (UCTs). When all the academic terminology, doublespeak and jargon are stripped away, a UCT is simply an alternative explanation of The Event that hasn’t been verified by independent sources.[4]
Keeley admits that he and the academic community have no justification to systematically and unilaterally dismiss conspiracy theories as silly and without merit when he writes:
“There is no criterion or set of criteria that provide a priori grounds for distinguishing WCTs from UCTs. One might perhaps like to insist here that UCTs ought to be false, and this is why we are not warranted in believing them, but it is in the nature of many conspiracy theories that they cannot be falsified. The best we may do is show why the warrant for believing them is so poor.”

And the best he can show as to “why the warrant for believing them is so poor” is public trust skepticism.
“It is this pervasive skepticism of people and public institutions entailed by some mature conspiracy theories which ultimately provides us with the grounds with which to identify them as unwarranted.

It is not their lack of falsifiability per se, but a belief in an increasingly massive conspiracy theory that undermines the grounds for believing in anything. Accepting the UCT explanation requires one to question too many of the various institutions that have been set up to generate reliable data and evidence in our world.”
At some point, according to Keeley, we shall be forced to recognize the unwarranted nature of the conspiracy if we are to be left with any warranted explanations and beliefs at all.

And finally, as the theory grows to include more and more people and institutions and yet remains unverified, the less plausible the conspiracy becomes; because, it stands to reason that, at some point, someone would have come forward with the missing and necessary data.

Notice the words, “we shall be forced to recognize;” rather than, “we have proof” that the theory is false. Keeley admits that academics are entitled to dismiss a conspiracy theory if a belief in that alternative explanation undermines the grounds for believing in anything. Furthermore, we are entitled to dismiss a mature conspiracy if it involves too many people. Keeley’s take on the JFK assassination mature conspiracy might read as follows:
Even if the CIA, FBI, Secret Service, Police Departments and Coroners offices in two cities, were part of a large conspiracy to cover up their incompetence in the public assassination of JFK, “it is impossible to believe that not a single member of the any of the agencies involved would be moved by guilt, self-interest, or some other motivation to reveal the agency’s role in the tragedy, if not to the press, then to a lover or family member. Governmental agencies, even those as regulated and controlled as the military and intelligence agencies, are plagued with leaks and rumors. To propose that an explosive secret could be closeted for any length of time simply reveals a lack of understanding of the nature of modern bureaucracies. Like the world itself, they are made up of too many people with too many different agendas to be easily controlled.”

Keeley asserts that, “we do live in an open world, but only because to think otherwise would lead to disastrous skepticism.” For Keeley, the theorists lack critical thinking skills because they don’t recognize that a belief in a UCT invalidates every other social belief they need to function in society.
In his attempt to prove the theorists are guilty of too much skepticism, Keeley overlooks the implications of the nature, logistics and institutional narrative of The Event. Everything that can be shown to be true about the mature conspiracy theory—unfalsiabiality, skepticism, epistemically dubious—applies to the narrative of The Event.

A close look at the JFK assassination mature conspiracy will illustrate my point.

The JFK Assassination: A mature conspiracy theory case study
Is the institutional narrative of the Oswald lone assassin theory, any more epistemically dubious, or any less “silly and without merit,” as the JFK tin-foil hat conspiracies?

The CIA killed JFK; the Mob killed JFK; the CIA and the Mob working together killed JFK; last but not least, Fidel Castro contracted with the KGB to have JFK killed.
Neither the institutional nor the conspiratorial explanation of the event is a warranted belief and should be dismissed on epistemic grounds. That is, there is sufficient reason to believe that the institutional view, just like the conspiratorial view, of the JFK assassination is false, yet neither view can be falsified.
A conspiratorial explanation of the nature and logistics of The Event is really no more or less rational and logical as the institutional narrative. Thus, Keeley should have written:
“There is no criterion or set of criteria that provide a priori grounds for distinguishing warranted conspiracy theories (WCTs) from UCTs or the Institutional View.’ One might perhaps like to insist here that warranted conspiracy theories, UCTs and the Institutional View ought to be false, and this is why we are not warranted in believing in any of them, but it is in the nature of many historical events that they cannot be falsified. The best we may do is show why the warrant for believing in either the conspiracy or the institutional explanation is so poor.”

Errant Data and The Conspiracy Theory Paradox
No discussion of conspiracy theories would be complete without a discussion of errant data. Anomalies and discrepancies surface immediately upon the announcement of The Event and increase as the conspiracy matures. Errant data, or data that cannot be reconciled with the official explanation of the event, is the chief tool of the conspiracy theorist.

Again, the JFK Assassination illustrates my point. The rational community ignores the details of the rifle, the bullet and the witnesses who heard other shots from other directions (errant data) on the grounds that there is no reliable way to gather social data, as opposed to scientific, data about the human world.[5]
Furthermore, when pressed, people will be ready to admit that the anomalies and inconsistencies (errant data) in the institutional view could never be chance occurrences. They escape the obvious improbability question by correctly pointing out that the errant data, even if true, does not constitute proof of anything, especially that the event was a conspiracy.

Related to errant data is what we shall refer to as the Conspiracy Theory Paradox.
Why would the conspirators, with the ability to plan and manage a conspiracy involving the CIA, FBI, Secret Service, Police Departments and Coroners offices in two cities (e.g., the JFK assassination), come up with such a convoluted senseless plan riddled with so many mistakes, anomalies and discrepancies (errant data)? And then, inexplicably, that same errant data is ubiquitously exposed in the media for everyone to question.[6]

1. Neither the rational nor the conspiracy community have an explanation for why the conspirators would come up with such a convoluted senseless plan when a much simpler plan would accomplish the same goal. Why not have a rogue agent, in the CIA, FBI or Secret Service shoot the president in the middle of the night?

1. Neither the rational nor the conspiracy community have an explanation for why the conspirators would allow the mistakes, anomalies, discrepancies and the holes in the “official story” (errant data) to find it’s way into the official institutional record and then allow that same data to be aired on national television for all to question.[7]

1. Neither the rational nor the conspiracy community have an explanation for how trivial it would have been for the conspirators to change or falsify the alleged discrepancy or anomaly and avoid the stupid “mistakes.” Consider how easy it would for the master criminals to just keep the Errant Data from being aired on national television compared to the magnitude of the criminal acts they are alleged to have committed.

Although the existence of a Paradox or Errant Data could never be offered as proof that the Event was a conspiracy, they are none the less consistent, though not proof, with a conspiracy to make you believe the event was a conspiracy.[8]

The Critical Thinking Trap
The Theorists, believing themselves to be truth seekers in assessing the nature, logistics and the institutional explanation of The Event classified as a UCT, are forced into a contradictory belief, or “critical thinking trap.”

Unwilling to abandon what they know to be the truth; that is, that the institutional view is false,[9] theorists are forced into a degenerative research program. A degenerative research program is one where the auxiliary hypotheses and initial conditions are continually modified in light of new evidence in order to protect the original theory from apparent disconfirmation.[10]

Why doesn’t everyone fall into the “critical thinking trap?”
The majority of people exposed to “The Event classified as a UCT,” are apathetic, indifferent and feel powerless because of a belief that the power elite control the world.[11]

The rational community, or anyone who is not a theorists or indifferent, consciously or unconsciously realizes the institutional view cannot be true; but at the same time, again consciously or unconsciously, realize that any alternate explanation or theory would require they question the very foundations of their beliefs about the society they live in.[12]
In “Of Conspiracy Theorie
s” Keeley begins with the premise that the theorists are the problem but ends with the admission that until a third option is presented, the theorists are really only guilty of hyper-skepticism (inherent in supposing dissimulation on a truly massive scale) because the theorists are unable to see that distrusting the claims of our institutions leads to “the absurdism of an irrational and essentially meaningless world.”[13]

When the rational community resort to ad hominem attacks, i.e., conspiracy theories are “silly, without merit” or the result of irrational thinking by paranoid schizophrenics, they reveal how large a role trust—in both institutions and individuals, mechanisms and people —plays in their thinking and beliefs about UCTs.
What can we say about the institutional narrative, the Conspiracy Theory Paradox and the Errant Data? The Theorists are really only guilty of not recognizing the institutional narrative, the Conspiracy Theory Paradox and the Errant Data are consistent with, but not necessarily proof, of a Conspiracy to make you believe the event was a Conspiracy.[14]

Footnotes
[1] Is there any justification for a belief that the Warren Commission properly investigated the assassination of JFK when they concluded Oswald acted alone when he used a heavily oiled cheap rifle with a distorted sight, hidden in a paper sack later discovered on the sixth floor without a trace of oil, for his miraculous feat of marksmanship with extraordinary accuracy at a moving target in minimal time?
The Warren Commission when faced with the impossibility of the shooting came up with the single bullet theory:
The Warren Commission reported that a single bullet hit Kennedy in the back of the neck and exited from the throat just below the Adam’s apple, and that same bullet entered Gov John B. Connally’s back, exited from his chest, went completely through his right wrist, and lodged in his left thigh.
Or is there any justification for a belief the United States House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) properly investigated the assassination of JFK when they concluded in 1978 that “the original FBI investigation and the Warren Commission Report to be seriously flawed and that there were at least four shots fired and only three of which could be linked to Oswald. The report concluded that the “CIA, the Soviet Union, organized crime, and several other groups were not involved,” but “they could not rule out the involvement of individual members of those groups.”

[2] Stephen Jay Gould, the Evolutionary Theorist at Harvard University considers conspiracy theorizing “garbage” and believes they must be “discredited [/debunked] in order for society to lead “a safe and sane life.” Gould believes we are vulnerable “thinking reeds,” as opposed to rational creatures, and that unless “we rigorously use human reason, we will lose out to frightening forces of irrationality, romanticism, uncompromising “true” belief which will result in the inevitability of mob action.

[3] An article, “Of Conspiracy Theories,” written by Brian Keeley and published in the Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 96, No. 3. (Mar., 1999) attempts to explain why so many people refuse to accept the institutional view he wonders if “our approach to teaching thinking/reason skills” is the problem that cause so many members of society (The Irrational Thinkers) to believe in them.”
Keeley writes:
“It is incumbent upon philosophers to provide analysis of the errors involved with common delusions, if that is indeed what they are. If a kind of academic snobbishness underlies our previous refusal to get involved here, there may be another reason. Conspiracy theorizing, in political philosophy at least, has been identified with irrationality of the worst sort—here the locus classicus may be some dismissive remarks made by Karl Popper in The Open Society and its Enemies (Popper 1996, Vol.2: 94-9). Pigden (1993) shows convincingly that Popper’s remarks cannot be taken to support a rational presumption against conspiracy theories in history and politics. (summary: Keeley rejects Popper, and this causes a change.)

[4] Unwarranted Conspiracy Theories (UCTs) and Warranted Conspiracy Theories (WCTs)
Characteristics of Unwarranted Conspiracy Theories (UCTs)

1. A UCT is an explanation that runs counter to some received, official, or “obvious” account’ (116-7). In many instances there exists the presence of a “cover story” that is perceived as the most damning piece of evidence for the given historical event under consideration.

1. UCTs typically seek to tie together seemingly unrelated events and because Conspiracy Theorists rarely if ever have a coherent beginning-to-end narrative of what they think happened, many of their theories wind up laying the blame on some other force; e.g., the Illuminati.

1. ‘The chief tool of the Conspiracy Theorist is errant data, or anomalies and discrepancies in information. Keeley defines errant data as data that cannot be reconciled with the official explanation of the event; or data, which true, would tend to contradict official explanations and support the cover story.

Characteristics of Unwarranted Conspiracy Theorists

1. The Fundamental Attribution Error. Conspiracy Theorists have a tendency to focus on errant data and are prone to making what Keeley refers to as the “fundamental attribution error.” The “fundamental attribution error” is the idea that all UCTs can be reduced to a supposed discrepancy or anomaly in one official record or another.

1. The Degenerative Research Program. Conspiracy Theorists exhibit irrational behavior when their theories take on the appearance of forming the core of a degenerative research program.

1. Dispositional versus Situational. Conspiracy Theorists severely overestimate the importance of dispositional factors while underestimating the importance of situational factors when attempting to explain the Conspiracy event.

[5] Errant Data, [anomalies and inconsistencies] which are unaccounted for by official [Institutional] explanations, which if true, would tend to contradict official explanations, cannot be relied upon, because while it is appropriate to place great stress on explaining errant data in the natural sciences, it is inappropriate in the social sciences. [citation]

Errant data is only errant in relation to an accepted theory, and to discount errant data on grounds that apply to both errant and non-errant data would be to prejudice oneself in favor of data simply because it happens to be explained by the received theory.

[6] At bottom what we face here is what we might term Goodenough’s Paradox of Conspiracies: the larger or more powerful an alleged conspiracy, the less need they have for conspiring. A sufficiently large collection of members of the American political, intelligence and military establishment—the kind of conspiracy being alleged by Oliver Stone et al.—wouldn’t need to engage in such nefarious activity since they would have the kind of organisation, influence, access to information, etc. that could enable them to achieve their goal efficiently and legally.

Note the existence of the paradox while it favors the Rational community is not proof the institutional view is correct. The fact that Theorists have no rational explanation of why the conspirators would make so many stupid mistakes reminds me of one of the central arguments of why nature does not imply design. Evolutionists dismiss the design (Intelligent Design) argument for nature because they question the design of the human eye.

[7] ‘The chief tool of the Conspiracy Theorist is errant data, or anomalies and discrepancies in information. Keeley defines errant data as data that cannot be reconciled with the official explanation of the event; or data, which true, would tend to contradict official explanations and support the cover story.
For example the JFK Assassination.
The rational community will knowingly ignore the details of the rifle, the bullet and the witnesses who heard other shots from other directions [errant data] and point out that while a Conspiracy Theory has epistemic value and does provide a unifying explanation of the event and the errant data, there is no reliable way to gather social data, as opposed to scientific, data about the human world.

1. Errant Data, [anomalies and inconsistencies] which are unaccounted for by official [Institutional] explanations, which if true, would tend to contradict official explanations, cannot be relied upon, because while it is appropriate to place great stress on explaining errant data in the natural sciences, it is inappropriate in the social sciences. [citation]

Errant data is only errant in relation to an accepted theory, and to discount errant data on grounds that apply to both errant and non-errant data would be to prejudice oneself in favor of data simply because it happens to be explained by the received theory.
Furthermore, they will admit that the anomalies and inconsistencies [errant data] in the Institutional view could never be chance occurrences but at the same time they correctly point out the errant data does not constitute proof of anything, especially that the event was a conspiracy.

[8] Is there any doubt that “there is a conspiracy to make you believe in a conspiracy”?
The JFK Conspiracy Theory Paradox

[9] In 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations concluded in a preliminary report that Kennedy was “probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy” that may have involved multiple shooters and organized crime.

[10] A progressive research program is where “novel predictions and retrodictions are verified.
What I have demonstrated is that there is no justification for a belief in either the Institutional view or the Conspiratorial View of a UCT. Critical thinking skills on the part of the Theorists force them into a degenerative research program. Critical thinking skills on the part of the Rational Community are used to avoid a degenerative research program.

[11] Conspiracy and the Social Sciences
“There Are No Conspiracies” by G. William Domhoff in 2005 looks at Conspiracy Theories and the Power Elite from a social science perspective. [as opposed to the philosophical] G. William Domhoff, a Research Professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz first coined the non-conspiracy acronym TPTB. He received his Ph.D. at the University of Miami and has been teaching at the University of California, Santa Cruz, since 1965. Four of his books are among the top 50 best sellers in sociology on the Power Elite Theory for the years 1950 to 1995: Who Rules America? (1967); The Higher Circles (1970); Who Rules America Now? (1983); and the non-“conspiracy” critique and theory of the U.S. power structure, The Powers That Be (TPTB) in 1979.
The Power Elite theory, despite a superficial resemblance to some right-wing conspiracy theories, has key differences from them. The latter take, as the primary motive force of history, that “America is ruled from behind the scenes by a select conspiratorial group with secret desires united around some esoteric or gratuitously evil ideology.

And while the concentration of political and economic power [in the control of small, interlocking elites], is indeed likely to result in sporadic conspiracies; such a conspiracy is not necessary to the working of the system–it 1) simply occurs as a secondary phenomenon, and 2) occasionally speeds up or intensifies processes that happen for the most part automatically.

[12] The confidence in authorities would be so eroded that they are no longer warranted in holding any beliefs that are socially produced and puts one in the position of no longer being able to trust any of the institutions that we rely on in to function in the world. (Keeley 1999, 121). Such epistemic endpoints appear to embody a degree of skepticism that is too high to be acceptable by anyone.” Brian Keeley

[13] The rejection of conspiracy thinking is not simply based on the belief that conspiracy theories are false as a matter of fact. The source of the problem goes much deeper. The world as we understand it today is made up of an extremely large number of interacting agents, each with it’s own imperfect view of the world and it’s own set of goals. Such a system cannot be controlled because there are simply too many agents to be handled by any small controlling group. There are too many independent degrees of freedom. This is true of the economy, of the political electorate, and of the social, fact-gathering institutions upon which conspiracy theorists cast doubt.”

[14] The Transparent Conspiracy is a collection of essays by Michael Morrisey. Morrisey, who holds a Ph.D. in linguistics from Cornell University, expands on the idea that the leaders (conspirators) “failed on purpose” and coined the phrase the “Mass Psychology of Partial Disclosure.” Morrisey makes a compelling argument that there exists a conspiracy that involves the controlled media disclosing a limited amount of information concerning the government’s culpability in atrocities such as the JFK, MLK and RFK assassinations. Morrisey believes a shadow government orchestrates a well-managed conspiracy/cover-up in order to intimidate, demoralize and alienate the tuned-in segment of the population that fully comprehends the corrupt nature of our government institutions.
The government’s purpose, according to Morrisey, is to keep the masses in a state of helplessness so they will be unable to upset the not-so-secret plans for what is referred to as for a New World Order. While his arguments are persuasive revisionist History contradicts any justification that the masses need to be kept in a state of helplessness. All of the Revolutions have shown to be the product of the elite and not the popular uprisings we were let to believe in our filtered history books.

Appendix A
A Short Course in “Conspiracy Science.”
“Conspiracy” is a REAL word for a REAL act that has existed in human societies in all cultures throughout human history. If conspiracies did not exist, we would not have a word for it. The problem that we face today is that the US Government has arrogated to itself a singular role as a political pontificate that believes that it and its agents in the Justice Department, alone, constitute the only “person” (corporate person) on this Earth who is allowed to use the word “conspiracy” as it employs the charge of “conspiracy” every week in trials to put both guilty and innocent people in jail while deriding and discrediting all others who employ the word as “conspiracy theorists.”

World-renowned author, investigator and philosopher, Paris Flammonde, has also completed a major work, “The Assassination of America,” a rebuttal to the lies and disinformation of the Warren Commission Report and the House Select Committee Investigation on Political Assassinations conducted during the Carter Administration.

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You need to have the discipline to post here at least once a day. You also need to not fall in the trap of never entering a stop loss.

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