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Hedging/averaging trades without prediction

  • #2,321
  • Jun 4, 2023 8:30am Jun 4, 2023 8:30am
Quoting LifeRider
Does this count as entry to this thread? I've tried for a long time to trade intraday, but I have work to do, and bots are not my thing. I've started a couple weeks ago to trade just once a day at midnight. I find that there seem to be many opportunities to get out of bad trades at least mid way. In the mean time the other direction can gather some pips. It's not a huge money maker, but has a potential for 1-3% a day average and the tempo really suits my slowness I can follow it bar by bar. {image}
Thanks for the post you are most welcome, 1-3% a day is a huge money maker, I would be glad of 1% a week, just work out 1% per day on a $1,000 account you would be a millionaire in less than two and a half years if you compounded your profit, is it possible yes, now ask yourself is it probable ...
  • #2,322
  • Jun 4, 2023 1:33pm Jun 4, 2023 1:33pm
Quoting feast
{quote} Can you share the indicator on this chart. this will help in knowing B/E when averaging
One of the indicators "Averaging Breakeven Lines" was on the MQL5 site for free but it has since been removed.
You can use this one instead.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 BreakEven Line.ex4   39 KB | 224 downloads
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
  • #2,323
  • Jun 4, 2023 1:43pm Jun 4, 2023 1:43pm
Quoting LifeRider
Does this count as entry to this thread? I've tried for a long time to trade intraday, but I have work to do, and bots are not my thing. I've started a couple weeks ago to trade just once a day at midnight. I find that there seem to be many opportunities to get out of bad trades at least mid way. In the mean time the other direction can gather some pips. It's not a huge money maker, but has a potential for 1-3% a day average and the tempo really suits my slowness I can follow it bar by bar. {image}
I found I could be profitable in forex if I nursed trades all day but simply don't have the capital to realistically outperform my day job. I too have been sceptical of trading using EAs but wanted to see if it was possible, so applied some logic to an EA creation tool, extensively backtested it and am now forward tesing with real money. After 3 weeks I'm averaging 3.58% per week which is an instant cash cow with compounding, needless to say I doubt this can continue indefinitely and a DD scenario is around the corner but every day's profit makes that more manageable, without exposing yourself to risk there's certainly no gain. If you can realistically get 1-3% a day you'll be a millionaire in no time.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,324
  • Jun 4, 2023 2:40pm Jun 4, 2023 2:40pm
Thank you for the feedback. Let's see how far I'll be able to push it...
I have no clue where it's going
  • #2,325
  • Edited Jun 6, 2023 2:37am Jun 5, 2023 3:32pm | Edited Jun 6, 2023 2:37am
I've been asked to clarify what I'm up to so, for anyone who is interested, here we go: Firstly this is Rob's thread and the methodologies are well explained up to this point by Rob and other experienced traders. I would reiterate this is not for everyone, not easy and not for the nervous types. My current take is to use an EA as life is too short to be sitting in front of screens all day IMO. My version of the concept is this: Your oppostion collects your money when your stop is hit and it is easier to make multiple small profits than get one or two big hits a day.

I'm only trading 15min EU (short) and UJ (long), so effectively long USD on low spread pairs. These pairs pay positive interest to me overnight so DD adds to the pot. I use the HL of the previous candle to trigger pending orders and above/below 50% on RSI (14 day period) to filter trades, that's it. EA generates 10x pending orders as soon as a trade is active, each pending order is 20% further away than the last. TP 5-6 pips which closes everything, deletes all pending orders and resets. No stoploss ever (get your head around it :o). First pending trade expires after 15mins so if candle doesn't break and RSI drifts back above/below 50% chart is cleared and nothing happens.

Yes DD gets disproportionate to TP, yes a massive move in one direction could see you looking at margin call (so trade small lots) but backtesting, over decades of data, shows this is manageable. As the pairs are correlated, I'll pause the EA on one if 3-4 levels get triggered and wait it out.

Maybe give it a go on demo, or better still with a live micro account, and don't forget to give Rob a thumbs up for starting the ball rolling. Finally, no guarantees whatsoever, I could be wrong.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,326
  • Jun 6, 2023 4:45pm Jun 6, 2023 4:45pm
4 UJ buys in play overnight yesterday so picked up some positive finance whilst in DD, EU trades paused to protect margin, UJ trades hit TP today. As long as price continues to behave like a pissed-up caterpillar I'm happy. 1% increase this week so far.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,327
  • Jun 7, 2023 12:57pm Jun 7, 2023 12:57pm
Pretty uneventful day, +1.62% this week, +12.37% since May 15.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,328
  • Jun 7, 2023 1:05pm Jun 7, 2023 1:05pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Pretty uneventful day, +1.62% this week, +12.37% since May 15.
Steady drip fills the pot, great work can't wait to see your results 6 months down the line...
  • #2,329
  • Edited 3:49pm Jun 8, 2023 1:26pm | Edited 3:49pm
Big test today, 7 levels in play so I'll be getting some finance tonight
Normally I'd pause one pair but I've been out all day, going to play with the EA to see if I can add this to the logic.
Might be posting a weekly loss tomorrow but all trades active so we'll see how it goes, patience the key now.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,330
  • Jun 8, 2023 1:35pm Jun 8, 2023 1:35pm
I can also report some success. Yesterday I closed my longs on the move up for a 1% gain, and then when it fell down in the evening I closed the shorts at break even. Then I purchased because the daily close was positive. If this keeps up until midnight, I will have something to take home today without a fight It's up 3% currently.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 34 KB
I have no clue where it's going
  • #2,331
  • Jun 9, 2023 1:15am Jun 9, 2023 1:15am
One more day this week. Got 1.02% by Wednesday and 2.82% yesterday. I'll try not to post too much as the method differs to yours. I enjoy reading what you do. Thank you.
I have no clue where it's going
  • #2,332
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:11pm Jun 9, 2023 2:11pm
Interesting week with some drawdown to deal with, I'm actually pleased with the results as consistent weekly profits seems unrealistic and backtesting showed this would happen. My overnight UJ trades hit TP this morning which just left 3 x EU sells in play (still holding these) so at this time equity shows a 0.26% weekly increase and 11% increase since May 15, weekly average is now 2.75%, end of next week will give 1 x month's worth of realtime data.

Have a good weekend all.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,333
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:22pm Jun 9, 2023 2:22pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Interesting week with some drawdown to deal with, I'm actually pleased with the results as consistent weekly profits seems unrealistic and backtesting showed this would happen. My overnight UJ trades hit TP this morning which just left 3 x EU sells in play (still holding these) so at this time equity shows a 0.26% weekly increase and 11% increase since May 15, weekly average is now 2.75%, end of next week will give 1 x month's worth of realtime data. Have a good weekend all.
...yet again excellent results, forget all these 100% profits in a week they don't last trust me 2.75% is a healthy realistic profit ...
  • #2,334
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:35pm Jun 9, 2023 2:35pm
Quoting LazyTrades
Interesting week with some drawdown to deal with, I'm actually pleased with the results as consistent weekly profits seems unrealistic and backtesting showed this would happen. My overnight UJ trades hit TP this morning which just left 3 x EU sells in play (still holding these) so at this time equity shows a 0.26% weekly increase and 11% increase since May 15, weekly average is now 2.75%, end of next week will give 1 x month's worth of realtime data. Have a good weekend all.
Profit is profit.
But relying only on money management will increase DD during some challenges time.
In my opinion It's best to have also a good entry criteria and use the MM to recover just the failed trades.
  • #2,335
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:41pm Jun 9, 2023 2:41pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} Profit is profit. But relying only on money management will increase DD during some challenges time. In my opinion It's best to have also a good entry criteria and use the MM to recover just the failed trades.
so what % are your good entries and how do you know that they will continue, not being nasty just playing devils advocate...thanks for posting
  • #2,336
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:48pm Jun 9, 2023 2:48pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} so what % are your good entries and how do you know that they will continue, not being nasty just playing devils advocate...thanks for posting
If you set your entr/SL/target than all is defined.
If it's a win than good and you search for your new entry.
If it's a loss than you can accept the loss and move on or, if you have a good MM, try to recover the loss.
In this way you are not 100% relying just on MM.
​​​​​​
If your entries are good just 20% of the times than you will rely the remaining 80% on your MM and sometimes you can have high DD.
  • #2,337
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:49pm Jun 9, 2023 2:49pm
Quoting Waveskierrob
{quote} ...yet again excellent results, forget all these 100% profits in a week they don't last trust me 2.75% is a healthy realistic profit ...
Thanks and yes I'm certainly not complaining, especially as I've reduced my screen time by 99% (which was always my goal). 0.5% per week = 26% year on year, I've no issue with that. More time for bikes
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,338
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:50pm Jun 9, 2023 2:50pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} If you set your entr/SL/target than all is defined. If it's a win than good and you search for your new entry. If it's a loss than you can accept the loss and move on or, if you have a good MM, try to recover the loss. In this way you are not 100% relying just on MM.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me . I've spent decades trading shares profitably and I'm sure the whole 2 to one profit ratio, stopless, know your risk methodolgy works for many but I'm not so sure anyone can see the future any better than me. Most of what I see/hear is nothing more than confirmation bias and the uncomfortable, inconvenient truth that price is very unpredictable (Forex more than most). What we are doing here is using trying to profit from that unpredicatability and accepting we've no idea where price is going, may be alien to some but I'm enjoying the discovery.
Sounds like a lot of screen time to me.
  • #2,339
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:56pm Jun 9, 2023 2:56pm
Quoting LazyTrades
{quote} Sounds like a lot of screen time to me
No
You can have an EA trading your logic.
How do you trade without prediction?
You enter S+B at the same time or what?
What do you manage the risk if things are not going in your favor?
Please an example and will see how risky/safe is your method.
  • #2,340
  • Jun 9, 2023 2:58pm Jun 9, 2023 2:58pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} If you set your entr/SL/target than all is defined. If it's a win than good and you search for your new entry. If it's a loss than you can accept the loss and move on or, if you have a good MM, try to recover the loss. In this way you are not 100% relying just on MM. If your entries are good just 20% of the times than you will rely the remaining 80% on your MM and sometimes you can have high DD.
alot of "IFS" in there, I do get where you are coming from but if you can manage your money on a 50/50 basis then even a coin flip you will succeed then you don't have to wait for set ups, not saying I'm right but it has worked for me for over two years now, each to their own...
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