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USDTRY

Recep Tayyip Erdogan won the second round of the Turkish presidential elections this weekend, securing a decent lead over opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu (52~% vs 48~%). There were expectations that the run-off will be a close call with some even projecting Kilicdaroglu winning. Nevertheless, Erdogan managed to secure another term in power. Market participants have warned a number of times that continuation of Erdogan's rule may put Turkey on the brink of bankruptcy. Turkish President asked domestic banks shortly before the elections to buy Turkish USD-denominated bonds in order to improve solvency ratings and pricing.
Spread for 5-year credit default swaps has even dropped recently and currently sits significantly below record levels (around 900 points). Currently, 5-year CDS spread is 665 points and implies around 11% default risk with 40% recovery rate.

CDS do not point to any increased default risk following Erdogan's win in second round of presidential elections. Nevertheless, Turkish CDS spread remains significantly higher than for other countries.

Erdogan's win would likely mean continuation of capital flight from Turkey, although this has been made much harder following the central bank's actions. According to Morgan Stanley, lira may drop around 30% in value, what would suggest USDTRY jumping to around 26.00 by the end of this year. Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey may have around $25 billion left to defend TRY. This is a very limited amount of funds given that CBRT is said to have spent around $177 billion to defend the currency over the past 16 months. Having said that, it looks like chance for a trend reversal on the TRY market is very slim.

Turkish lira is weakening against USD and EUR this morning. Some financial institution expect around 30% drop in TRY value by the end of the year.

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USDJPY

USDJPY quotes started the new week with a correction. Looking technically at the D1 interval, before the weekend the price reached the upper limit of the wide upward channel, where sellers appeared. For now it is far too early to think about a change in sentiment, nevertheless the last upward wave was made in one go, so there is a risk of a deeper downward correction. Should the discount actually gain momentum, the 137.3 - 137.9 zone should be regarded as key support. Resistance remains around the 141 level, which is the area of the upper limit of the aforementioned upward channel.

Looking at the lower time frame - H1, we can see the very strong uptrend. The key short-term support is the level of 139.6, which is derived from the lower limit of the 1:1 structure and the EMA100 average. According to the overbalance methodology, only a break of this support could lead to a deeper discount.

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usdtry
shoud we wait for more strong Lira?

Crude Oil

Brent crude is losing 4% today, which can be linked to several factors. The US media is talking about uncertainty regarding the debt ceiling agreement, as several Republicans have made it clear that they will not support the bill. In addition, there are increasing question marks over China and further demand growth.

Nonetheless, the key factor that is likely to support price declines at this point is the disagreement within the enlarged OPEC+ cartel. Recently, Saudi Arabia's oil minister warned contract sellers about the possibility of OPEC+ action, which could suggest another potential production cut. On the other hand, Russia's energy minister says Russia is happy with the current course of events and prices. However, there have been signs that Russia may also be producing and exporting more than the internal arrangements in the cartel. This threatens a potential 'break-up' of the entire agreement, which could lead to a return of supply of as much as 2 million barrels per day, although of course one has to bear in mind the limited capacity for such a rapid increase in production. Nevertheless, recently, Iraq or the UAE were said to have hinted that they would like to produce more.

Strong declines in Brent crude were triggered by uncertainty about the sustainability of the OPEC+ agreement and uncertainty about demand from China or globally if the US were to eventually go bankrupt. The nearest support is around USD 68 per barrel, where the 23.6 retracement is located.

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Oil

Oil prices have made an almost complete U-turn, recovering the majority of losses made earlier today. While there was no specific news driving the rebound, Reuters survey based on secondary sources suggested that OPEC countries were over complying with pledged output cuts. While countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates were mostly in-line with pledged cuts, there were a number of countries that have cut more than pledged. Iraq and Nigeria are of note here as they are significant oil producers and their compliance with pledged cuts stood at 151% and 448% respectively. Combined output of 13 OPEC countries was 460k bpd lower in May than in April. Moreover, output data for April was revised lower by 150k bpd.

Taking a look at OIL.WTI chart at H1 interval, we can see that price plunged to $67.00 area earlier today, where early-May lows are located. However, buyers took over control afterwards and a strong upward move was launched. While OIL.WTI is still trading around 1% lower on the day, it has been dropping as much as 4% earlier. Continuation of the upward move will, however, depend on whether buyers manage to push the price above the $69.45-69.65 area, where the upper limit of a local market geometry can be found.

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Gold

Gold prices experienced some interesting price moves yesterday. The moves were interesting as they stood in contrast to what incoming data implied in terms on next Fed moves. A very disappointing Chicago PMI reading that should be seen as dovish from Fed's point of view, led to an increase in gold prices as would be expected but release of a higher-than-expected JOLTS data that triggered a jump in Fed rate hike pricing failed to reverse those moves. Gold held firm following hawkish JOLTS data. Gains on the gold market started to be erased later on after… dovish comments from Fed Harker and Jefferson, that led to a drop in Fed rate hike pricing. Harker and Jefferson suggested that Fed may skip a rate hike at June meeting to better assess incoming data.

Taking a look at GOLD chart at H1 interval, we can see that price of the precious metal attempted to break above the $1,973 resistance zone and started to pull back later on. GOLD dropped below 50- and 200-hour moving average this morning and an attempt to break below $1,955 support can be observed at press time. While Fed members hinted that US central bank may keep rates unchanged at the June meeting, there is still a lot of data to be released until the meeting. Traders will be offered US jobs market data this week (ADP - today at 1:15 pm BST, NFP - Friday at 1:30 pm BST) and should it come in strong, Fed rate hike odds may jump again and potentially exert pressure on gold prices. US CPI inflation data for May will be released on June 13, 2023 - one day ahead of FOMC June decision.

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US30

US indices launched this week's trading on the back foot and moved lower on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, tides turned yesterday as it became more and more likely that Fed will keep rates unchanged at June meeting (13-14 June, 2023). Comments from Fed Harker and Jefferson signaling that FOMC is in position to skip a rate hike at the June meeting led to a slump in rate hike bets on money markets. Currently, markets price in just a 25% chance of 25 basis point rate hike at June meeting while those odds were as high as 70% following release of JOLTS data on Wednesday. NFP report for May, which is scheduled to be released at 1:30 pm BST today, will be watched closely but it seems that Fed members have already made up their minds when it comes to the June decision and therefore jobs data may not have too much of an impact.

Taking a look at Dow Jones futures (US30) at D1 interval, we can see that the index made another test of the 32,900 pts support zone and has once again failed to break below. The aforementioned support zone is marked with previous price reactions, 200-session moving average (purple line), upward trendline and the 50% retracement of the downward move launched at the beginning of 2022. Positive demand-side reaction to this hurdle suggests that the index may be set for a bigger recovery move. The first resistance zone to watch should current gains extend can be found in the 33,700 pts area, marked with 61.8% retracement.

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USDCHF

Swiss CPI inflation data for May was released this morning at 7:30 am BST. Data came in-line with market expectations and showed a deceleration in headline measure from 2.6% to 2.2% YoY. This is the lowest reading since February 2022. Core gauge slowed from 2.2% to 1.9% YoY, slighly more than expected. As such an outcome was expected, there was no major reaction on CHF market.

USDCHF saw barely any reaction to Swiss CPI print. Pair continues to test a short-term 0.9110 resistance zone.

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EURUSD

Final services PMI readings for May from European countries were released this morning. Revised data from France and Germany, as well as whole euro area, showed lower PMI readings than flash releases. Releases from Spain and Italy also missed expectations and came in lower compared to a month ago. Nevertheless, services sector in all major European economies is still in expansion with PMI readings above 50 pts threshold.

EUR moved slightly lower on those releases with EURUSD looking back towards daily lows in the 1.0682 area. Equity indices did not saw any major reaction to PMIs today.

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Crude Oil

Weekend meeting of OPEC+ group was watched closely but was not expected to result in any changes to the level of agreed output cuts. This turned out to be partially true. While OPEC+ decided not to deepen output cuts, it has agreed to extend the current output cut agreement through 2024. However, Saudi Arabia announced that it will make a voluntary output cut of 1 million barrels per day. The cut was announced for July only but Saudi officials already warned that it may be extended if the situation requires it.

Baseline production levels were adjusted for 2024 and it could be seen as somewhat bearish. This is because production quotas were redistributed from countries that struggled to meet production targets to countries that have spare production capacity. As a result, it may lead to better compliance with production targets across the group and, in turn, to higher combined production.

Taking a look at WTI chart (OIL.WTI) at D1 interval, we can see that the price launched a new week with a big bullish price gap. While Brent (OIL) jumped around 1.7% at the beginning of a new week, WTI opened with an around-4% price gap. OIL.WTI jumped above the $73-74 per barrel resistance zone and tested 50-session moving average (green line). However, bulls failed to break above it and gains started to be erased as the Asian session progressed. Price has almost completely filled the bullish price gap but has bounced off the daily lows since.

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Massive Crypto Sell-Off!

Binancecoin loses almost 10% and Bitcoin falls by more than 5% amid the problems of the Binance exchange in the US

Cryptocurrencies are clearly in a downturn. Bitcoin is losing over 5%, and Binance Coin is down nearly 10% following the news that the SEC was planning to sue the largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, due to uncovered irregularities. Binance is accused of violating securities market regulations, conducting unregistered securities sales (the SEC considers cryptocurrencies as securities), and operating an unregistered securities exchange in the United States. Additionally, the SEC reportedly indicated that the exchange was managing its clients' funds, including secretly transferring funds to an entity controlled by the company's founder.
It is important to note that this is not the first time U.S. authorities have sued Binance. The CFTC had previously taken similar action. The United States likely wants to prevent investments in cryptocurrencies through the Binance exchange as quickly as possible.

In response to these reports, we are witnessing significant drops in cryptocurrencies and, above all, a breakout from the recent sideways trend. As we can see, positive sentiments in the U.S. stock market or commodity market no longer have a positive impact on cryptocurrencies.

Binancecoin is at its lowest since early March, as is Bitcoin. On the other hand, we are seeing further increases on the US100.

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USDCNH

The USDCNH pair and the CHNComp contract reacted with rises in the face of the announcement of the Chinese authorities' order to cut deposit interest rates to stimulate the economy. Yields on Chinese debt securities lost following the above announcement.

State-owned banks, including Bank of China Ltd, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd and Bank of Communications Co, were ordered to cut interest rates on a range of products, including by 5 basis points on demand deposits and by at least 10 basis points on three-year and five-year time deposits, anonymous sources said.

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Bitcoin

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has sued the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase in a New York court. Bitcoin is slipping below yesterday's lows. Shares of Coinbase (COIN.US) are losing nearly 11% before the open. The market is gaining confidence that a coordinated action by US regulators is taking place. Sizable pre-opening sell-offs are also noted in the stocks of other cryptocurrency companies like Microstrategy (MSTR.US) and HIVE Blockchain (HIVE.US).

Berenberg analysts estimates that SEC moves may cost at least 37% of Coinbase net revenues. The key for the company may be to change business model and relocate from the US.

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Russel 2000 rallies 2.5% as banks outperform

Wall Street indices managed to recover from early losses and are posting small gains at press time. Russell 2000 is an exception as the index is not posting a small gain but a massive one. The index is trading 2.5% higher at press time with all 11 sector groups trading higher. Biggest gains, however, can be spotted on Financials subindex. The move high in financials is driven by banks, with regional banking shares rallying today. The move is somewhat puzzling as there was no news that could justify outperformance of the sector. It looks like a relief rally following struggles of regional banks in recent months.

However, it should be said that banks have been underperformers on Wall Street yesterday and this underperformance was a result of WSJ report suggesting that US regulators are considering raising capital requirements for banks by 20%. This story has been neither confirmed, nor denied by US authorities but it looks like shares in regional banks are trying to erase part of recent weakness today.

Russell 2000 futures (US2000) rally today and has managed to climb above 1,845 pts resistance zone earlier during the session. The index is trading at a 3-month high. The next resistance zone to watch can be found in the 1,885 pts area.

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USDTRY

Turkish lira is taking a massive hit this morning. Turkey's currency is dropping over 5% against the US dollar and euro. TRY slump was puzzling at first as its size was abnormal even for such a volatile asset as lira and there was no news that accompanied it. However, news justifying the move began to surface later on.
Bloomberg reported that Turkish state banks have given up on defending lira. Traders are reporting that Turkish banks halted dollar sales that were aimed at supporting TRY. As a result, an important source of TRY demand vanished and the currency began to freefall.

However, those news may not be as bad as they look at first glance. Turkish President Erdogan appointed a Wall Street veteran as a new treasury and finance minister - Mehmet Simsek, who is a former Merrill Lynch strategist. Given that FX interventions are costly and they do not bear fruit if there is no confidence in the currency (like it was the case with TRY), the decision to abandon them could be a wise move. Of course, this is only true if Turkish authorities take some other actions instead that could help stem capital outflow. Abandoning interventions and not engaging in any new actions could doom TRY to plunge further.

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US500 - Trade of the day

Facts:

1. US500 has broken out of the downward trend channel
2. Currently, there is consolidation around the resistance zone
3. The end of the hike cycle is near

Recommendation:

1. Position: long on US500
2. Target Price: 4384, 4437
3. Stop Loss: 4230

Justification:

The US500 index has broken out of the downward trend that has been ongoing since the end of 2021. The index's breakout occurred at a price of 4200 points. After overcoming resistance, the index price gained up to the level of 4250 points, after which it retested support at the level of 4200 points. The following days brought a decisive rebound, and the previous week the US500 index ended on a solid plus. The price clearly broke above the support line, indicating a strong move. It is currently in consolidation around 4300 points, increasing the chances of a possible further breakout.

Next week, investors are awaiting key inflation data and the FED's decision on interest rates. Currently, the market estimates no hikes and hopes for a signal of the end of the cycle. The lack of a hike at this meeting may lead to euphoria on the indices in the hope of ending the cycle and a "soft landing". Although such a scenario is rather unlikely, it may lead to increases in the valuations of risky assets in the short term. This may be a sufficient reason for the US500 to continue the strong upward trend and break above 4300 points in the short term. However, if the price does not break above 4300 points, we recommend setting a stop loss close enough to minimize losses.

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Cardano

1. The seventh-largest cryptocurrency on the market, Cardano (ADA), is falling to levels not seen since late March.
2. According to the SEC, Cardano is a security, and the Robinhood exchange is considering delisting some of the cryptocurrencies designated as securities by regulators - to avoid potential regulatory problems
3. Some investors accuse the project of a lack of clear growth despite a nearly $13 billion market capitalization

Onchcain data shows higher activity and accumulation by larger investors
Project developer Charles Hoskinson indicated that the project is developing at the right pace and much of the developers' work is not visible to the 'naked eye' from the outside. More recently, Cardano has been working on the Marlowe project, which could potentially facilitate the entire construction and bring smart contract adoption to the financial sector. The IOHK organization behind Cardano has indicated that Marlowe has already been audited both internally and externally to meet security requirements.

The regulator claims that Cardano is only ostensibly decentralized while nearly 17% of the supply is in the hands of a few entities that regularly conducted sales to finance the development and marketing of the project - through unregistered sales of securities. Cardano was thus supposed to meet the conditions of the so-called Howey test: "investment of assets, in a joint venture, with the expectation of profit derived from the efforts of others."

According to IntoTheBlock, Cardano saw an increase in large transactions over the past 24 hours where the total number of Cardano token (ADA) trades increased by 5.8 million to 63.57 million Cardano (ADA) . The number of large transactions, above $100,000, increased to 14,780 or (4,790 more than the previous day). Buying activity in terms of Cardano inflows into large portfolios also increased by 123.6% yesterday compared to June 5 (part of the transactions were due to portfolio splits - a total of 6.61 million net inflows).

CARDANO price again fell below the SMA200 (red line) suggesting a possible test of $0.30 where we see previous price reactions and the 71.6 Fibonacci retracement of the December 2022 upward wave. The chart also somewhat resembles an head and shoulders formation, with the neckline running through at the aforementioned $0.30 level.

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USDCAD

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has raised its target for the overnight rate to 4.75%, in line with its ongoing policy of quantitative tightening. This decision comes amid global economic shifts, with major central banks signaling potential further rate hikes to maintain price stability.

Canada's economy showed stronger than expected performance in Q1 2023, with a GDP growth of 3.1%. Despite lower energy costs, goods price inflation increased, and CPI inflation rose to 4.4% in April. The BoC anticipates a decrease in CPI inflation to around 3% in the summer, but concerns persist about it remaining above the 2% target.

BoC note: "In response to these factors, the BoC increased the policy interest rate, reflecting the need for a more restrictive monetary policy to balance supply and demand and return inflation sustainably to the 2% target. The Bank remains committed to restoring price stability for Canadians."

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Gold and Big Tech Stocks in Retreat

Precious metals quotes under pressure, gold loses more than 1%, profit taking on Big Tech stock

The second half of today's session brings increased volatility on the dollar, which also translates into clear movements on precious metals. Gold and silver fared quite well today and were trading on the upside until 3pm BST. However, sentiment changed after the publication of the Bank of Canada's surprise interest rate decision. The EURUSD pair turned back from its daily highs and precious metals moved lower.

It is worth noting that this is the second unexpected hike this week. The Bank of Australia also decided to raise interest rates at yesterday's RBA meeting. These decisions were prompted by the latest macroeconomic data, which points to the need to further cool inflation.

In the US stock markets, we have seen a reduction in the recent upward momentum, primarily in the technology stocks that make up the NASDAQ. The sizable declines are mainly recorded by the largest companies. Alphabet (GOOGL.US) loses 3.3%, Microsoft (MSFT.US) over 2.7% and Amazon (AMZN.US) close to 3.4%.

On the other hand, investors' attention is attracted by the huge disparity between the quotations of indices such as the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) and the Russell 2000 (US2000) small-cap benchmark. As reported by Goldman Sachs bank's trading desk, the record jump in call option ETF's volume on the Russell index may indicate, a gaining 'soft landing' narrative, which may indicate a return of interest around previously underperforming smaller companies.

Looking technically at the chart of gold, the price has been moving in a downtrend since 4 May. At the beginning of June, the price reacted at the resistance height at $1981, but sellers failed to push the price to new lows and a correction was generated. The corrective movement was stopped today, however, at the height of the 100-period average at $1968, from where a dynamic retracement took place. If the current sentiment does not change, an attack on the recent minima at $1932 is not excluded.

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US2000

The Russell 2000 Index of U.S. smaller-cap companies (US2000) has been on an upward surge for several days. In yesterday's session, it rose nearly 1.8% against a 1.7% decline in the Nasdaq, weakness in the S&P500 and the Dow index. Driven by oversold regional bank stocks in recent weeks, the benchmark has risen less than 7% since the beginning of the year, a weak performance against the major indexes. By comparison, it has gained nearly 8% in the past five days alone. Today's claims reading at 2:30 pm could mean additional volatility for the index.

For now, the market is reassuring itself that the US economy remains quite strong (although industry is sending signals of weakness) with a strong labor market, and in view of consumer strength, revenues of listed companies are not in danger of collapsing at least in the foreseeable period. The increases in the major indexes are thus 'spilling over' slowly to smaller companies that have been bypassed for months, which is also helped by the Fed's rate hike cycle coming to an end. The Russell sub-index, which includes energy companies and banks, has recently lagged behind the sub-index linked to growth stocks (the largest disparity in more than 20 years) - primarily due to the frenzy related to AI and the strength of the largest BigTech companies (a situation reversed in comparison to 2022). In recent days, value companies from the Russell especially bank shares, have closed the gap somewhat by driving the benchmark.

US2000 broke out above the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020 upward wave and a rise above 1900 points could open the way for the bulls to reach the psychological resistance of 2000 and 2100 points, where the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement is visible. The index has formed a strong base near 1750 points, the strength of which has been 'tested' by the price several times - each time the bulls have managed to bounce higher. In the bearish scenario 1750 - 1800 points zone may be tested again.

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