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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,681
  • May 18, 2007 11:33am May 18, 2007 11:33am
I caught 125pips shorting GBP/JPY today, but I always seem to catch the short moves then miss the inevitable long afterwards as I pat myself on the back for making money on the short.

Maybe when traders around the world realise they'll make more money by letting the carry trades unwind by a couple thousand pips before starting the upward trend again i'll be able to say I told you so but until then I'll keep working on better bottom fishing strategies to go along with my ability to pick the tops.
  • #4,682
  • May 18, 2007 3:00pm May 18, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting cesarnc
If EJ does not take out 164 today, my name is Britney Spears
Special Avatar for a man of his words...

  • #4,683
  • May 18, 2007 4:26pm May 18, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting cesarnc
Special Avatar for a man of his words...

It's ok Britney (I can call you Britney right?), you can bet on some positive price action early next week. But for now, please DON'T sing.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,684
  • May 18, 2007 4:38pm May 18, 2007 4:38pm
Clearly the impact of the news from China has fast diminished and in respect of the Yen an offered bias has quickly been reasserted on proceedings. Indeed any gains have been recouped at a much faster pace than those seen on the back of a clear fundamental signal, i.e the on hold BOJ and softer than f/c Q1 GDP. Players have tipped a variety of dip buyers today, but it is apparent that much of the interest was longer dated with a medium term fund the standout buyers of Usd/Yen around 120.80. Looking to next week the offered bias for the Yen looks a safe bet, especially with US bond yields rallying strongly today, to exacerbate the carry effect. Japanese CPI is due next Friday, and another negative read is a distinct possibility. It appears that there is no salvation for the Yen at present.

Have a nice weekend. And please, girls, panties on!
  • #4,685
  • Edited 12:07pm May 19, 2007 11:38am | Edited 12:07pm
  •  Drphu
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Take2Trades and call me in Morning! | 31 Posts
Quoting cesarnc
Clearly the impact of the news from China has fast diminished and in respect of the Yen an offered bias has quickly been reasserted on proceedings. It appears that there is no salvation for the Yen at present.
Very good points Cesarnc, I agree hugh gains to be had long on yen crosses EY UY and GY but GY just a bit more rocky of a climb.

Vote on the need for Calender data of Peoples Bank of China News

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=30369
"Make Life's Reality a Dream Come True!" DrPhu
  • #4,686
  • May 20, 2007 8:00am May 20, 2007 8:00am
Any new prediction for Monday openings? Sorry, i'm quite new here.
  • #4,687
  • May 20, 2007 5:40pm May 20, 2007 5:40pm
GBP/JPY is going to see a sizeable correction this wk with ensuing turmoil in chinese market----difficult to say whether it'll be healthy or nasty correction--a repeat of Feb cannot be ruled out---the fun should start by tonite---looks like the friday's upward retracement a BULLTRAP!!! (an old trick played over & ovder again in every market--sic!)--but get ready to get a nice dip for med term longs---until then, prefer to watch the 'made in china' show from sideline for now---
GL/GT
  • #4,688
  • May 20, 2007 5:51pm May 20, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting mysticgenie
GBP/JPY is going to see a sizeable correction this wk with ensuing turmoil in chinese market----difficult to say whether it'll be healthy or nasty correction--a repeat of Feb cannot be ruled out---the fun should start by tonite---looks like the friday's upward retracement a BULLTRAP!!! (an old trick played over & ovder again in every market--sic!)--but get ready to get a nice dip for med term longs---until then, prefer to watch the 'made in china' show from sideline for now---
GL/GT
  • #4,689
  • May 20, 2007 5:57pm May 20, 2007 5:57pm
well, it's 7am monday in china. if there's going to be a significant immediate rxn from fri's hike, should show soon i suppose
Bring It...
  • #4,690
  • May 20, 2007 5:59pm May 20, 2007 5:59pm
It's the Yuan appreciation for next few days to appease Paulson party before the US-China summit beginning tomorrow---which will temporarily rescue Yen for the time being---I call it 'chinaman' tactic!!!--lol
GL/GT
  • #4,691
  • May 20, 2007 6:10pm May 20, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting mysticgenie
It's the Yuan appreciation for next few days to appease Paulson party before the US-China summit beginning tomorrow---which will temporarily rescue Yen for the time being---I call it 'chinaman' tactic!!!--lol
GL/GT
Carries usually "trades first, ask later". Was there this threat, GJ would be at 235 now...

All I see now is EJ pushing further up on US bank pushing.

Cable's upside is not that favored due to last Retail Sales... Keeping one foot in EJ may reward....

I don't see any doomsday coming up from China. Not this week. What China did last week was "cosmetic" for G8 summit. They actually got their congrats and lollipops for being nice fellas. That's all, imo
  • #4,692
  • May 20, 2007 6:27pm May 20, 2007 6:27pm
An interesting article in bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...QJM&refer=home

GL/GT
  • #4,693
  • May 20, 2007 6:59pm May 20, 2007 6:59pm
Quoting cesarnc
Carries usually "trades first, ask later". Was there this threat, GJ would be at 235 now...

All I see now is EJ pushing further up on US bank pushing.

Cable's upside is not that favored due to last Retail Sales... Keeping one foot in EJ may reward....

I don't see any doomsday coming up from China. Not this week. What China did last week was "cosmetic" for G8 summit. They actually got their congrats and lollipops for being nice fellas. That's all, imo
I think there might be a dip prior to pushing up further...hmmm
  • #4,694
  • May 20, 2007 7:04pm May 20, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting mysticgenie
An interesting article in bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...QJM&refer=home

GL/GT
CSI 300 index, pointed as benchmark.

We should keep eyem on it, then:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuild...r1=SHSZ300:IND

Also: http://www.hsi.com.hk/ for overall Chinese SM.

What time (GMT, EST) does Chinese SM open?
  • #4,695
  • May 20, 2007 7:06pm May 20, 2007 7:06pm
I believe they are GMT +8

8pm est is 8am for them(beijing)
Bring It...
  • #4,696
  • May 20, 2007 7:06pm May 20, 2007 7:06pm
ASIAN EQUITY REACTION TO PBOC RATE HIKE: NIKKEI AND ASX OPENS UP STRONGLY, WHILE S KOREA IS LOWER BY -0.6% AS KRW GAINS WEIGH ON EXPORTERS
- (Repeat) TTN analysis: Chinese rate hike and JPY trading
- Given the reaction seen in commodity prices, it seems the market consensus is that the PBoC tightening should help to sustain Chinese growth over the long term (the tightening is seen as proactive move that reduces the chances of a hard landing in China)
- The JPY outlook for the week: Key for the JPY direction will be the reaction of Chinese equities to the PBoC rate hike. If we had to see Chinese equities sell-off (not likely, given the reaction we've seen in carry trades and commodities) the JPY could benefit from increased volatility. But if Chinese equities had to rally sharply, carry trades could remain the main driver in JPY trading.
  • #4,697
  • May 20, 2007 7:13pm May 20, 2007 7:13pm
Quoting wshhmm
ASIAN EQUITY REACTION TO PBOC RATE HIKE: NIKKEI AND ASX OPENS UP STRONGLY, WHILE S KOREA IS LOWER BY -0.6% AS KRW GAINS WEIGH ON EXPORTERS
- (Repeat) TTN analysis: Chinese rate hike and JPY trading
- Given the reaction seen in commodity prices, it seems the market consensus is that the PBoC tightening should help to sustain Chinese growth over the long term (the tightening is seen as proactive move that reduces the chances of a hard landing in China)
- The JPY outlook for the week: Key for the JPY direction will be the reaction of Chinese equities to the PBoC rate hike. If we had to see Chinese equities sell-off (not likely, given the reaction we've seen in carry trades and commodities) the JPY could benefit from increased volatility. But if Chinese equities had to rally sharply, carry trades could remain the main driver in JPY trading.
So far so good...
  • #4,698
  • May 20, 2007 7:22pm May 20, 2007 7:22pm
from what i can see, SM opening in china is 9:30 am, in about 1 hr, 7min
Bring It...
  • #4,699
  • May 20, 2007 7:23pm May 20, 2007 7:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
So far so good...
I second the motion cesarnc, I really like your new avatar bro keep it up!
  • #4,700
  • May 20, 2007 7:39pm May 20, 2007 7:39pm
Quoting 4x_Trader
I second the motion cesarnc, I really like your new avatar bro keep it up!
Likewise 4x...
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