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The Swamp

  • #109,441
  • Jun 2, 2023 1:03pm Jun 2, 2023 1:03pm
Quoting Boulder
As long as H4 holds the uptrend... I started to long some here 1.0709.. will add...
hi Boulder, can you share your H4 uptrend numbers please? Thank you
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #109,442
  • Jun 2, 2023 1:33pm Jun 2, 2023 1:33pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} hi Boulder, can you share your H4 uptrend numbers please? Thank you
SysI 1.0653 sysII 1.0692 , Sys III 1.0651. I use sys III
  • #109,443
  • Jun 2, 2023 1:45pm Jun 2, 2023 1:45pm
im out the other half close to a 100 pip loss...think we'll see 1850ish just from much lower i guess..Ill start buying under 0650
short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #109,444
  • Jun 2, 2023 1:51pm Jun 2, 2023 1:51pm
Hedge funds cut more longs this week per COT report on 0530
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  • #109,445
  • Jun 2, 2023 3:33pm Jun 2, 2023 3:33pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} SysI 1.0653 sysII 1.0692 , Sys III 1.0651. I use sys III
thanks for sharing the levels! Happy weekend
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #109,446
  • Jun 2, 2023 4:29pm Jun 2, 2023 4:29pm
Ray Charles can see this. Its a downtrend (red). Since 2008. But when breached it has enough play to be hundreds of pips. Its near impossible to play off this alone.
You can see it getting out the upper lines the past few years. But at the same time making LL and LH. Consistent with a downtrend. I will move the channel in the next post to a blue one using the 2008 high and that higher breech.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,447
  • Jun 2, 2023 5:02pm Jun 2, 2023 5:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
Ray Charles can see this. Its a downtrend (red). Since 2008. But when breached it has enough play to be hundreds of pips. Its near impossible to play off this alone. You can see it getting out the upper lines the past few years. But at the same time making LL and LH. Consistent with a downtrend. I will move the channel in the next post to a blue one using the 2008 high and that higher breech. {image}
The blue is still in a downtrend. Since 2008 its made a newer low. The grade of the drop depends on who did the drawing. Anyway a large tl is not as precise as a level. One of the bigger levels in the current area is 0835.
To me pa is on that bear side. That alone is hard to trade off. Recently this move the past few years has given more places to use. You cant play them all. Each individual looking at the same thing will interpret different. To make things simpler. I turn the simple train track. In the local town. ATm that looks to be 1.0777 and 1.0610. PA is running on that track. With 0693x in the middle. In a large down trend. When it get near one end. I look to ride it back to the point of equal. In this case 0693x. If it breaks 1.0777 or 1.0610. On to considerer the next rail town. With its local reasons to consider. There is always another rail station. Each an individual. I like to think the larger ones are like a big city. Just for a reference. The larger ones more important than the smaller ones. The thing is, there are so many. You may have a different place others dont see. You need to always ask why is it stopping here. You may be wrong on the reason. So with time you may be able to duplicate those reasons. You will be wrong. But ones its duplicatable, its your educated guess. Don't foil yourself, its always a guess. But you may get better at it. If you find a point A. And you know point B in that educated guess. All the distance is your money. At the same time there is always a C against you. Have a reasonable place to admit your wrong with a stop.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,448
  • Jun 2, 2023 9:33pm Jun 2, 2023 9:33pm
The reversal pattern is forming, I feel more secure when entering a buy order. I only day trade so my trades are shorter and simpler. Have a nice weekend.
  • #109,449
  • Jun 3, 2023 5:25am Jun 3, 2023 5:25am
Quoting ntadtin
The reversal pattern is forming, I feel more secure when entering a buy order. I only day trade so my trades are shorter and simpler. Have a nice weekend.
not reversal per say. But if it can not take 1.0610. 1.0835 is a natural test
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,450
  • Edited 7:13am Jun 3, 2023 7:01am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting ntadtin
The reversal pattern is forming, I feel more secure when entering a buy order. I only day trade so my trades are shorter and simpler. Have a nice weekend.
The dynamic day range we are using is bullish until the day closes below 0632. Fib wise 0610 support. It has reached 1.0706. I think it will run back to 1.072x/35.
But a long at 1.0706 is not enough pay for me. But once to 1.0694/53 it gets better. Adr gets stretched at 0653 to me. Somewhere Sunday if in that area. i look to buy to tp 0722/33. But if it goes to 0722 before a fall. I may miss it.. If your right. It will need to break 1.0777.. PP Monday at 1.0730
A run up to 1.0733/35 may get slapped down. Below the R at 0777.. is 0735. So I would rather see 0694, 0682 before longing. The window I'm using is to about 0762. Not quite the 70 pips of adr.. But good enough. It may be a sweet spot
If your using the 200 ema day at 0684. It has not been closed below yet.

I will post a additional reason that may sling a long view. But its just more support that can fold..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,451
  • Jun 3, 2023 7:16am Jun 3, 2023 7:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The dynamic day range we are using is bullish until the day closes below 0632. Fib wise 0610 support. It has reached 1.0706. I think it will run back to 1.072x/35. But a long at 1.0706 is not enough pay for me. But once to 1.0694/53 it gets better. Adr gets stretched at 0653 to me. Somewhere Sunday if in that area. i look to buy to tp 0722/33. But if it goes to 0722 before a fall. I may miss it.. If your right. It will need to break 1.0777.. PP Monday at 1.0730 A run up to 1.0733/35 may get slapped down. Below the R at 0777.. is 0735. So...
The computer is showing this as a down channel.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,452
  • Jun 3, 2023 7:24am Jun 3, 2023 7:24am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The computer is showing this as a down channel. {image}
as for channel rules.. A short at top.. As for this channel rule is tp the center line. The tp rule is meant a generic place pa may weaken/turn. It gives a place to look at pa irt. If it seems to be weakening the drop. Its in the other numbers already mentioned. 1.0706/53.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,453
  • Jun 3, 2023 8:42pm Jun 3, 2023 8:42pm
Gator to calculate your PP's looks like you have used the open of Friday 28th April to close on 31st May, correct?
Just wondered why that period...?
Thanks
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #109,454
  • Jun 4, 2023 3:13am Jun 4, 2023 3:13am
welp...i turned big time bearish on the euro..my longs that bit me in the ass were hourly and 4H countertrend trades but now that iv committed myself to trade this pig and get my money back on it I checked the longer term charts and doesnt look so good

heres 2 charts the yearly futures cause i hate screwing around with the multitude of boilerroom bucketshop type broker feeds in forex with a blue line at support and a daily with the same blue line that looks like will be retested...looks like 0473
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short trump and go long the deepstate
  • #109,455
  • Jun 4, 2023 12:22pm Jun 4, 2023 12:22pm
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  • #109,456
  • Jun 4, 2023 12:23pm Jun 4, 2023 12:23pm
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  • #109,457
  • Edited 2:29pm Jun 4, 2023 2:15pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting axecap
Gator to calculate your PP's looks like you have used the open of Friday 28th April to close on 31st May, correct? Just wondered why that period...? Thanks
Yea nothing special on the one.. PP on month is not showing much in movement. 1.0805 Is not much.
If it should drop early Sunday, like anytime now. I will need to consider the R/R on the anticipation it may retest 1.072x/35. I'm willing to short there. Where it goes first, I dont know. I think pa will return to 1.071x/35 sometime before Tomorrow. So the further from 1.072x on a drop. I need to figure the R/R for the tp area. I need a good support to long.. Hopefully it will be under 068x
But st above 1.0706 is not the best sign of it dropping st. In a perfect world for me. A drop to 0653 back to 1.072x/35. 70 pips of adr.. Followed by another drop
I got a plan to consider a long 1.0653.. But its just a plan
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,458
  • Jun 4, 2023 2:32pm Jun 4, 2023 2:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yea nothing special on the one.. PP on month is not showing much in movement. 1.0805 Is not much. If it should drop early Sunday, like anytime now. I will need to consider the R/R on the anticipation it may retest 1.072x/35. I'm willing to short there. Where it goes first, I dont know. I think pa will return to 1.071x/35 sometime before Tomorrow. So the further from 1.072x on a drop. I need to figure the R/R for the tp area. I need a good support to long.. Hopefully it will be under 068x But st above 1.0706 is not the best sign of it dropping...
I do think 1.0723/35 will come before London closes tomorrow. But hope it drops before that happens.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #109,459
  • Jun 4, 2023 3:09pm Jun 4, 2023 3:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I do think 1.0723/35 will come before London closes tomorrow. But hope it drops before that happens.
current level is in the middle, nothing much to do here until we reach either 073x or 068x
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #109,460
  • Jun 4, 2023 4:25pm Jun 4, 2023 4:25pm
6/5 trading levels

1.0779
1.0746
1.0726

1.0685
1.0663
1.0632

next to print 1.0685 or 1.0726
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