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The paradox System 2023 (for beginners)

  • #301
  • Jun 2, 2023 2:53pm Jun 2, 2023 2:53pm
Quoting MustardJam
{quote} Yeah there's so many variables that the entries seem limitless. The big thing i'm realizing is that it really is all about "the big picture". There's not a single ONE thing that makes a trade good or bad. The daily for instance has been a big part of my plan for 2 days in a row now.
Daily is huge. My recommendation is to start with one set up that you like, and learn the hell out of it. It may mean you don't trade daily, but who cares. Master one set up, and move on if you like. To try and learn everything at once is too daunting in the beginning. For example, study every turn similar to what L1ghting showed you. It takes time. They all differ to a certain extent, but you'll see patterns repeat. Better to have traded one set up a thousand times than a thousand trades one time. Right or wrong, I have four set ups that I've mastered and scan all pairs for them.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #302
  • Jun 2, 2023 3:09pm Jun 2, 2023 3:09pm
Quoting hoss
{quote} Daily is huge. My recommendation is to start with one set up that you like, and learn the hell out of it. It may mean you don't trade daily, but who cares. Master one set up, and move on if you like. To try and learn everything at once is too daunting in the beginning. For example, study every turn similar to what L1ghting showed you. It takes time. They all differ to a certain extent, but you'll see patterns repeat. Better to have traded one set up a thousand times than a thousand trades one time. Right or wrong, I have four set ups that...
Yeah that’s my plan. There’s still stuff that doesn’t really make sense so I just ignore it until I see what does. I’ve been doing fairly well but it’s still that lack of confidence which I’m sure goes away over time.
  • #303
  • Jun 2, 2023 3:16pm Jun 2, 2023 3:16pm
Quoting MustardJam
{quote} Yeah that’s my plan. There’s still stuff that doesn’t really make sense so I just ignore it until I see what does. I’ve been doing fairly well but it’s still that lack of confidence which I’m sure goes away over time.
Confidence will come when you trade the same set up over and over. There will come a time when they won't be able to trick you so to speak. You'll know every variable.
P.S. I was in Dana's Elite class in 2016, and this is what worked for me. Everyone learns differently, so don't ever get discouraged.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #304
  • Jun 3, 2023 3:28am Jun 3, 2023 3:28am
I just want to clarify one more thing from yesterday as I don't feel like I gave a thorough enough explanation. Romar was resistance and respected as resistance - it was not center. The completely risk free entry was the higher low after the final high impact USD release - TP was before Romar. There was the possibility with the release yesterday that Romar could have slid over EMA and kept the trend down with H2 DB up, however the gap was there in the bigger picture for 40 pips because of the scenario on the bigger picture. Had the bigger picture been different or tighter, there was no entry without 40 to Romar. It is only through a lot of studying and time that you learn where and when the bigger picture allows it to be pushed. Imagine your asking a swing to be pushed to the absolute limit to get 40 pips, but that swing will end and reverse because its being held back - that could have happened. But what did happen was the release and trend kicked in and now the market closed with EMA and Romar touching. It is not until the open candle Sunday evening (UK) we get to see if the crossing is confirmed. Anything can happen over a weekend, the banks can trade, but we can't. Gaps can be created and that is why you would neve ever hold a trade over a weekend.

I hope that makes sense. Almost identical scenario happened about mid way through the original thread.

Summary - the only reason why that entry was safe for London if there was no upcoming release was because in the bigger picture the gap was there for the swing to be pushed/ stretched. On another day when things may have been tighter, the gap was not there. I took that daily screenshot with the circle drawn on for a reason. Line it up with fib's. This is the Matrix.
  • #305
  • Jun 3, 2023 5:49am Jun 3, 2023 5:49am
Quoting L1ghtning
I just want to clarify one more thing from yesterday as I don't feel like I gave a thorough enough explanation. Romar was resistance and respected as resistance - it was not center. The completely risk free entry was the higher low after the final high impact USD release - TP was before Romar. There was the possibility with the release yesterday that Romar could have slid over EMA and kept the trend down with H2 DB up, however the gap was there in the bigger picture for 40 pips because of the scenario on the bigger picture. Had the bigger picture...
This makes sense to me. I have seen the same things. Except I wouldn't have had so much confidence filling that gap (until Purple Daily) even after the news. As I wrote in a previous post, if I was long I would have liked to see that gap filled before the news. That news in my mind was a big threat to go back to the downside with a Romar/EMA slider. it was a very formative situation. Thanks for your comments on that

EDIT:in any case I would have closed my trade before the news if I hadn't reached the target sooner
  • #306
  • Jun 3, 2023 7:11am Jun 3, 2023 7:11am
Quoting L1ghtning
I just want to clarify one more thing from yesterday as I don't feel like I gave a thorough enough explanation. Romar was resistance and respected as resistance - it was not center. The completely risk free entry was the higher low after the final high impact USD release - TP was before Romar. There was the possibility with the release yesterday that Romar could have slid over EMA and kept the trend down with H2 DB up, however the gap was there in the bigger picture for 40 pips because of the scenario on the bigger picture. Had the bigger picture...
Which market are you referring to for this explanation? I was just thinking EJ as I first saw this post then realized after reading it all it had to be a different market than EJ
  • #307
  • Jun 3, 2023 7:33am Jun 3, 2023 7:33am
If H2 Romar were to maintain resistance along with Daily resistance this is the scenario, maybe not the variables for entry, but the scenario.
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If H2 Romar and EMA clean cross then the Daily could show a slider. Check the weekly. We do not know yet
  • #308
  • Jun 3, 2023 7:36am Jun 3, 2023 7:36am
This is one of many many reoccurrences with support and resistance. Its never exactly the same, but you will recognise it over and over again.
  • #309
  • Jun 3, 2023 7:53am Jun 3, 2023 7:53am
You see how similar it is, but not exactly the same.

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  • #310
  • Jun 3, 2023 7:56am Jun 3, 2023 7:56am
Quoting Lusky
{quote} Which market are you referring to for this explanation? I was just thinking EJ as I first saw this post then realized after reading it all it had to be a different market than EJ
I am referring to EURJPY and again in follow on posts. Sorry I do not understand how there is confusion there
  • #311
  • Edited 11:13am Jun 3, 2023 8:05am | Edited 11:13am
The reason why Dana scolded the trader in post 7806 is because that trader did not understand the bigger picture and what was happening, they just pulled the trigger without standing back and looking. Dana was trying to hammer in the basics into that trader first. Exactly as Daniel has said - stayed out because of resistance. I too watched this happen many times and stayed out. Once you learn how the swings work with support and resistance you can be one step in front of the market. Yesterday the proof is in the pudding so to speak, the market hit the parabolic 5 minutes after the release and the swing went up, that's it.
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Edit: Just to ensure everyone is on the same page, in the image above is the same as EURJPY on Friday with Romar not centre. Not centre means it is far enough away to be respected. Below is an image of Romar centre and 'running downtown central'

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  • #312
  • Jun 3, 2023 12:30pm Jun 3, 2023 12:30pm
Quoting L1ghtning
If H2 Romar were to maintain resistance along with Daily resistance this is the scenario, maybe not the variables for entry, but the scenario. {image} {image} If H2 Romar and EMA clean cross then the Daily could show a slider. Check the weekly. We do not know yet
Yes, that's how I imagine it for Sunday/Monday. But anything can happen and nothing is taken for granted until the chart tells us. What is certain is that now there is little space both to go up and down. I expect there can be a lot of ups and downs. But I don't know because I don't have the right experience to say. It will be a great opportunity to learn
  • #313
  • Jun 3, 2023 2:53pm Jun 3, 2023 2:53pm
Quoting L1ghtning
The reason why Dana scolded the trader in post 7806 is because that trader did not understand the bigger picture and what was happening, they just pulled the trigger without standing back and looking. Dana was trying to hammer in the basics into that trader first. Exactly as Daniel has said - stayed out because of resistance. I too watched this happen many times and stayed out. Once you learn how the swings work with support and resistance you can be one step in front of the market. Yesterday the proof is in the pudding so to speak, the market hit...

Basically, you want to respect the resistance levels and not trade INTO them when there isn’t a gap to justify it correct?

For example, I remember a post by Dana earlier on where I believe he has a sell into ROMAR support but the gap is justified for take profit (or even this week on EURJPY).

However, if your let’s say at that level or say 10-20 pips away it is best to wait and see what the market will do (either slider or beating that level).
  • #314
  • Jun 3, 2023 6:16pm Jun 3, 2023 6:16pm
And here is the other scenario if Romar and EMA clean cross and resistance doesn't hold - pull up the charts to see for yourself

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  • #315
  • Jun 3, 2023 8:49pm Jun 3, 2023 8:49pm
Attached is my trading plan for EJ market open Friday.


Lusky
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  • #316
  • Edited 11:06pm Jun 3, 2023 10:37pm | Edited 11:06pm
Hello,
English is not my first langusge, so please forgive me.
I read again from the beginning, make notes, re-read again..... and i must say i learn a lot from those who help especially L1ghtning but not forgetting others as well. I check back my notes and "Hoss" you are one of the early trader where Dana say "check your PM box". I don't think i will get to that.
It's a lot of rules to remember, how to apply them and i think it will be hard for me to get through. I hope you guys will stick around as i am a very slow learner. But again I will try and try and try..... until i get one or two set up and go from there as suggested.
Thank you.
  • #317
  • Jun 3, 2023 11:38pm Jun 3, 2023 11:38pm
Quoting SeriTrade
Hello, English is not my first langusge, so please forgive me. I read again from the beginning, make notes, re-read again..... and i must say i learn a lot from those who help especially L1ghtning but not forgetting others as well. I check back my notes and "Hoss" you are one of the early trader where Dana say "check your PM box". I don't think i will get to that. It's a lot of rules to remember, how to apply them and i think it will be hard for me to get through. I hope you guys will stick around as i am a very slow learner. But again I will try...
One thing I’ve learned that’s really helped:

There isn’t as much rules as you think. Yes, there’s an infinite amount of variables as Dana himself has eluded to but it’s all about trend, support, and resistance. Again, Dana has also mentioned this. You have EMA and ROMAR as lead for the trend. The 4H will take you in and out of trades and show reversals.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve only been consistently trading for a few weeks. A LOT to learn and plenty of mistakes. I miss a lot still and that might be a bit simplified but as long as you understand it as the foundation you will slowly start to see through the fog and blur. Just look at how the daily PSAR held as support and the EMA. Then look at the 2H with the 4H headed to ROMAR and the entries off EMA which held as support. Or how the 1H ROMAR held the market until crossings and then it went up. All these help paint the bigger picture.

Learn to respect the indicators and things will start to become more clear
  • #318
  • Jun 4, 2023 12:04am Jun 4, 2023 12:04am
Quoting MustardJam
{quote} One thing I’ve learned that’s really helped: There isn’t as much rules as you think. Yes, there’s an infinite amount of variables as Dana himself has eluded to but it’s all about trend, support, and resistance. Again, Dana has also mentioned this. You have EMA and ROMAR as lead for the trend. The 4H will take you in and out of trades and show reversals. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve only been consistently trading for a few weeks. A LOT to learn and plenty of mistakes. I miss a lot still and that might be a bit simplified but as long as you understand...
My problem is i have difficulty in putting the puzzle together, can't see what is coming. I can only see bit after the event and that's of no use anymore.
Anywhere, thank you for your encouragement. I will listern, make notes and practice and practice, practice....
  • #319
  • Jun 4, 2023 5:34am Jun 4, 2023 5:34am
Quoting Lusky
Attached is my trading plan for EJ market open Friday. Lusky {image}
Hi Lusky
There are some things in your plan that confuse me a little. If you don't mind, could you clarify?
1- Why on 1h 2h and 4h do you say that EMA is both (resistance and support)? In 2h I understand that the ROMAr/EMA cross is not yet confirmed and this makes EMA both resistance and support. But on 1h and 4h Romar is below EMA and EMA is below Purple so EMA should be only support.
2- Why on 2h you say last db at bottom and SAR attached below PSAR? I see db and SAR together at 149.954
3- Why on 4h you say that PASR is not locked in still next bar? I see it blocked as support from 6 bars
  • #320
  • Edited 6:09am Jun 4, 2023 5:53am | Edited 6:09am
Quoting Danielesse87
{quote} Hi Lusky There are some things in your plan that confuse me a little. If you don't mind, could you clarify? 1- Why on 1h 2h and 4h do you say that EMA is both (resistance and support)? In 2h I understand that the ROMAr/EMA cross is not yet confirmed and this makes EMA both resistance and support. But on 1h and 4h Romar is below EMA and EMA is below Purple so EMA should be only support. 2- Why on 2h you say last db at bottom and SAR attached below PSAR? I see db and SAR together at 149.954 3- Why on 4h you say that PASR is not locked in still...
I will try to give myself an answer on point 2. You consider the last attachment of DB the one on the bottom because that is the bottom of the Fibo. But I don't understand why the last SAR you consider the one below SAR. I see a thistle tag at 149.954
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