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DHR - Daily Half Range Strategy

  • #201
  • Edited 3:20am Jun 1, 2023 2:53am | Edited 3:20am
EURUSD 15M trade not taken:
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-Not enough strength / momentum.
-Strength at -0.14
-ATR(1) also showing not enough momentum as below 15 pips
-Market waiting for news later today
-It is important to learn when not to trade and walk away.

Will see if a trade appears later in the day.
  • #202
  • Jun 1, 2023 3:29am Jun 1, 2023 3:29am
Today I took this EURUSD trade: -10 pips
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Which indicator do you use for strength / momentum?
Guppy re-invented All Time Return: 83.3%
  • #203
  • Edited 4:16am Jun 1, 2023 3:41am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting 8tango
Today I took this EURUSD trade: -10 pips {image} Which indicator do you use for strength / momentum?
The place a trade may occur is known. Whilst waiting for price to reach this point we need to build a story as to why the trade should be entered.

The Hypothesis is I should not enter this trade. For each trade the hypothesis must be disproved with enough evidence each day, each trade. Hence the saying "Whenever there is any doubt, there is no doubt".

We use our time to gather the evidence, look at market structure, recognise if the market is slow today e.g. ADR is expanding slowly, no true direction. If the market is slow why? The market maybe waiting for something to happen, look if there is news today based on the indice etc being traded.

As part of gathering evidence I use the DHR ATR(10) H1, the DHR Strength Indicator and sometimes if not sure ATR(1) M15 with a level line at 0.0015.

If you look at ATR(1) M15 over the past days, see that a spike of ~15 pips occurs when there is initial momentum / potential breakout. However at the time of the breakout the ATR(1) value will obviously be less in real time.

The above is why my preference is to focus on one currency pair, as each day is part of a continuing story and so understand how the pair moves.

I'm in the process of updating the DHR Line Indicator, with chart display of % ATR and strength with the option to select the currency pair.

If you were trading manually, a breakeven could potentially have been set by moving the SL line as price did hang around the ~3-4 pip profit mark for awhile.

The current move away from the line maybe a pullback within the downward trend, price will let us know.

This is why I post / share my daily trade / no-trade everyday TP or SL with notes as to why a trade was entered or not.

I hope it helps.
  • #204
  • Jun 1, 2023 4:21am Jun 1, 2023 4:21am
EURUSD still slow...... waiting for news later.
  • #205
  • Jun 1, 2023 4:46am Jun 1, 2023 4:46am
Thank you for your explanations.

What is the name of the indicator which mesure the strenght on this picture below? How to use it to filter trade?
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Is it better to filter trade with this strenght indicator or filter trader with only DHR ATR(10) H1 or use the 2 indicators togethers?
Guppy re-invented All Time Return: 83.3%
  • #206
  • Edited 5:26am Jun 1, 2023 5:04am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting 8tango
Thank you for your explanations. What is the name of the indicator which mesure the strenght on this picture below? How to use it to filter trade? {image} Is it better to filter trade with this strenght indicator or filter trader with only DHR ATR(10) H1 or use the 2 indicators togethers?
The arrow points to the updated version of the DHR Line Indicator currently being tested before shared.

Daily routine, my preference:

1) Big picture:
- Market over all in trend or not, which direction, what is the bloomberg news say...

2) Daily picture:
- Is the market slow? If so why?
- Is the ADR over the last few days increasing or decrease?
- Is there news today
- What is the trend looking like today? 100 / 50 EMA.
-If you look today on M15 chart for EURUSD, close together and flat, so not really any trend in place. Probably trying to decide if to continue downwards or reverse.
- Daily Hi / Lo range is it narrow, skewed, etc.....

3) Indicators:
- Is ADR % increasing slowly?
- Is daily Hi / Lo range narrow?
- Is ADR(10) H1 increasing? Is there enough room for trade e.g what is the pips reading
- ADR(1) M15 is there momentum, increase in the ATR of each candle?
- Can look at volume as well. I don't
- DNR Strength meter reading still testing not sure if trust it yet.
- Look at overall price pattern. I dont look for specific candles patterns, just overall structure.
- Take into account previous day high and low to where trade line is.

As known this is not a true science.
However I have tried to make the method simple and rule based without 100s of indicators.
Backtesting by myself and others show the rules work but there are improvements to be made.

For example, I don't like the SL being at 20pips and want to improve this.

I hope that helps.
  • #207
  • Jun 1, 2023 5:23am Jun 1, 2023 5:23am
EURUSD 15M. Done for the day
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.
-Finally some strength ~0.30 on DHR Strength Meter
-Room to move to previous day high
-Overcome S/R
-Bulls candles in a row

-However market still ranging waiting for news, so was a risky trade.
  • #208
  • Jun 1, 2023 6:39am Jun 1, 2023 6:39am
Quoting Ronin-
EURUSD 15M. Done for the day{image}. -Finally some strength ~0.30 on DHR Strength Meter -Room to move to previous day high -Overcome S/R -Bulls candles in a row -However market still ranging waiting for news, so was a risky trade.
Red MA is below the blue, this is not a good setup for a buy, no?
Guppy re-invented All Time Return: 83.3%
  • #209
  • Edited 6:55am Jun 1, 2023 6:44am | Edited 6:55am
Quoting 8tango
{quote} Red MA is below the blue, this is not a good setup for a buy, no?
Correct, as stated it was a risky trade in my opinion. Also the MAs are close together and flat. So could be a reversal / pullback of the multi day downward trend.

Based decision on Strength meter being 0.3, some room to previous day high and the run of bull candles before it suggesting some momentum to the upside.

This trade is NOT strictly to the rules, as trade is only to be taken, or not, at the ADR(10) 50% mark, so was risky away.
  • #210
  • Jun 1, 2023 7:26am Jun 1, 2023 7:26am
For Ronin.....
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  • #211
  • Edited 7:44am Jun 1, 2023 7:29am | Edited 7:44am
Quoting cpfleger
For Ronin..... {image}
LoL, soooo true. I should listen to Andreas, he knows......

Andreas Clenow is an amazing Hedge Fund Manager and Strategist. He has shown buying stocks just based on the letter of the alphabet can be profitable! It started out as joke made by another Fund Manager and Andreas, gave it a try.

Achieving True Alpha(tm)

True Alpha(tm) is a revolutionary portfolio construction algorithm, selecting stocks on the sole basis of the first letter in the stock ticker. What, what? Yes, yes, calm down and listen.

To show you that we’re not just messing around here, let’s throw some simulations at the wall and see what sticks. As a baseline universe, we’ll use the S&P 500 Index. The simulations take historical index membership into account of course, including the graveyard. If it didn’t, it would be kinda useless as a simulation, wouldn’t it. Dividends and the usual stuff is naturally handled properly as well. For now, we’ll allocate equal cash to all positions.
The portfolio is rebalanced monthly to ensure that we maintain approximate cash parity. If not, the weights would go seriously out of whack with time.
First we’ll try the obvious. Let’s run a simulation that buys only stocks starting with a certain letter. Have you ever considered what initial ticker letter is the most beneficial for long term price development? Why not? You probably considered what month is the best, or what weekday.
The answer is of course Y. If you had bought all the stocks starting with Y, you would have more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 for the past 15 years. Other good letters include B, H, P, T and W, all of which would have yielded double digit annualized returns since 2000. However, you should obviously stay away from Q and Z, where the annualized return for the same period was negative.
  • #212
  • Jun 1, 2023 2:07pm Jun 1, 2023 2:07pm
Quoting Ronin-
{quote} LoL, soooo true. I should listen to Andreas, he knows...... Andreas Clenow is an amazing Hedge Fund Manager and Strategist. He has shown buying stocks just based on the letter of the alphabet can be profitable! It started out as joke made by another Fund Manager and Andreas, gave it a try. Achieving True Alpha(tm) True Alpha(tm) is a revolutionary portfolio construction algorithm, selecting stocks on the sole basis of the first letter in the stock ticker. What, what? Yes, yes, calm down and listen. To show you that we’re not just messing...
haha very funny Ronny
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
  • #213
  • Edited 4:14pm Jun 1, 2023 3:41pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} haha very funny Ronny
Here is the link:

https://www.followingthetrend.com/20...of-the-sp-500/

The truth is as Andreas states:

"The truth is that you can pick stocks at random and have a very high probability of outperforming the market. As long as you pick enough stocks to gain a decent diversification. Yes, I’ve done the research on that, and yes I will post an article on that soon too."
  • #214
  • Jun 1, 2023 6:11pm Jun 1, 2023 6:11pm
Update to DHR Line Indicator, now v12.

See Post 1#. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...range-strategy

-Additon of ADR % value of the ADR(10) value with ability to turn off and on.
-Addition of currency strength meter with ability to chose currency pair and turn off and on. (not all pairs included for now).
  • #215
  • Edited 3:38am Jun 2, 2023 3:22am | Edited 3:38am
Slow day on EURUSD so far.... not surprising given the size of the move yesterday. Also Friday high impact news later, so market waiting like yesterday.

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  • #216
  • Jun 2, 2023 4:07am Jun 2, 2023 4:07am
Quoting Ronin-
Update to DHR Line Indicator, now v12. See Post 1#. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...range-strategy -Additon of ADR % value of the ADR(10) value with ability to turn off and on. -Addition of currency strength meter with ability to chose currency pair and turn off and on. (not all pairs included for now).
Which others indicators is necesary to display correctly EURUSD Strength and Strength pairs because it's indicate 0.00 as value on my chart below?
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Guppy re-invented All Time Return: 83.3%
  • #217
  • Jun 2, 2023 4:13am Jun 2, 2023 4:13am
Quoting 8tango
{quote} Which others indicators is necesary to display correctly EURUSD Strength and Strength pairs because it's indicate 0.00 as value on my chart below? {image}
Check the inputs, if there is a pre / post fix. May or may not be required for your broker. Hope this solves the issue.

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  • #218
  • Jun 2, 2023 4:36am Jun 2, 2023 4:36am
Quoting Ronin-
{quote} Check the inputs, if there is a pre / post fix. May or may not be required for your broker. Hope this solves the issue. {image}
Yes it is necesary to remove the "_SB into postix field to display Strength value, now it work fine, thanks.
Guppy re-invented All Time Return: 83.3%
  • #219
  • Jun 2, 2023 4:39am Jun 2, 2023 4:39am
Quoting 8tango
{quote} Yes it is necesary to remove the "_SB into postix field to display Strength value, now it work fine, thanks.
Great! Thanks for letting me know.

Before you ask........ I'm in the process of coding the alert function for the strength indicator.
  • #220
  • Jun 2, 2023 4:52am Jun 2, 2023 4:52am
Daily thank you to Ronin.....
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