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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #16,861
  • May 24, 2023 2:00pm May 24, 2023 2:00pm
Quoting Strat
{quote} I have the same lately. probably because the DOW had been in more downtrends than uptrends this year. At least that is my impression. DOW WEEKLY {image} Still think that is the reason?
No just an impression I have. I find it easier on the short side as well. Maybe I should brush up on the laws too
  • #16,862
  • May 24, 2023 2:15pm May 24, 2023 2:15pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} No just an impression I have. I find it easier on the short side as well. Maybe I should brush up on the laws too
Gravity ensures that PRICE always falls faster going down than it does going up - it is the old energy analogy - it is easier to push a car down hill than push it up hill.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,863
  • May 24, 2023 2:17pm May 24, 2023 2:17pm
Late afternoon NY session . Counter trend
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I was not sure if according to PA on m15 maybe I should hold for more points
  • #16,864
  • May 24, 2023 2:21pm May 24, 2023 2:21pm
Quoting bistolis
Late afternoon NY session . Counter trend {image} I was not sure if according to PA on m15 maybe I should hold for more points
And the market laughing in my face. should would could...
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  • #16,865
  • May 24, 2023 2:24pm May 24, 2023 2:24pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} And the market laughing in my face. should would could...{image}
Maybe this as a re-entry?
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  • #16,866
  • May 24, 2023 2:46pm May 24, 2023 2:46pm
My problem has to do with subconscious biases creeping into trading. Down always feels better. I was able to hammer the long off of the lows today, but only because stats told me that above the low, NQ was a lock up through 13665 or so...

On another note, S15 manually is a lot of work! Might come back to more sane TF's with you guys again and just trade larger.
  • #16,867
  • May 25, 2023 7:15am May 25, 2023 7:15am
Quoting Barbaresco
My problem has to do with subconscious biases creeping into trading. Down always feels better. I was able to hammer the long off of the lows today, but only because stats told me that above the low, NQ was a lock up through 13665 or so... On another note, S15 manually is a lot of work! Might come back to more sane TF's with you guys again and just trade larger.
only because stats told me that above the low, NQ was a lock up through 13665 or so...

What are these statistics, please, and do they apply to all instruments?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,868
  • May 25, 2023 10:12am May 25, 2023 10:12am
Quoting Strat
{quote} only because stats told me that above the low, NQ was a lock up through 13665 or so... What are these statistics, please, and do they apply to all instruments?
Yes, I know you hate algos, but they pay my bills... After the low, floating in the dead zone, I had avg probability across all relevant parameters (yesterday approx 900/3K total tracked) for hourly volatility with a 30-day lookback showing 93% for a move to at least 13665, before 13580.

I am PASR'ing now - sorry for the detour!
  • #16,869
  • May 25, 2023 1:11pm May 25, 2023 1:11pm
M15 S&P 500

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M15 EURO

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,870
  • May 25, 2023 4:29pm May 25, 2023 4:29pm
Quoting FCFranzener
{quote} What are these indicators of arrows?
it is not an indicator. I am editing on paint to show my entry
  • #16,871
  • Edited 10:37am May 26, 2023 10:18am | Edited 10:37am
M5 S&P 500

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Classic Dr. Joe day!

London and volume is done and so am I

Forgot to include this as I gave up on it to focus on the S&P 500

M5 EURO

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,872
  • May 26, 2023 10:30am May 26, 2023 10:30am
How to manage fear when trading

A different perspective than the usual codswallop

https://www.tickmill.com/blog/how-to...r-when-trading
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,873
  • May 26, 2023 11:09am May 26, 2023 11:09am
Quoting Strat
How to manage fear when trading A different perspective than the usual codswallop https://www.tickmill.com/blog/how-to...r-when-trading
A nice article
  • #16,874
  • Edited May 27, 2023 1:39am May 26, 2023 9:16pm | Edited May 27, 2023 1:39am
Quoting Strat
How to manage fear when trading A different perspective than the usual codswallop https://www.tickmill.com/blog/how-to...r-when-trading
Very good point Strat.
I understand that everybody reading this is a trader, or espiers to be trader.
Salutations and congratulations to you all for joining the club of retail traders (versus commercial traders) where about 80 - 90% are losers, Pareto distribution clearly enacted. If one decided to have an operation would one choose a hospital that have at the very best only a 20% rate of success? Interestingly the retail traders do it of their own volition in contradistinction to necessity. That's for starters!
Lets consider fear and trading.
Fear is the word we use to describe our emotional reaction to something that seems dangerous.
Fear might have a paralysing effect and as a strong emotion it is often accompanied with stress and anger.
We are all afraid of pain, one ultimate fear is a painful death. Not surpassingly we do our best to avoid pain, fear playing an important part in that natural process.
There are at least too opposite side to fear, positive sight, like fear of snakes,flood, fire and pain, and a negative side like fear of dentist, fire and pain.
Fire and pain are in an interesting category in relation to fear, where fear is clearly falling into the both categories, positive in some cases and negative in other, depending on circumstances.
There is a pain associated with loosing trades and loosing traders have grown a distinctive, entrenched and well developed fear of the pain of loosing.
That is natural and stands well with survival instinct, however in trading itis one of the important mark and identifier of a loosing trader belonging to the overwhelming majority of loosing traders club.
Profitable traders who are in a tiny minority have done some in-depth work on that issue and are continually aware of it and are in process of implementing what they have worked out so far, and they are continually furthering understanding of themselves and the issue of fear and the fear of pain.
Many books and the articles have been written on that subject.

In trading, adding to the losing trade, mark of a losing trader, is a bad practice of avoiding pain of losing, the fear of the pain of loosing is often strangely correlated to hope, and the loses get bigger.

Recognising and embracing the pain of losing, makes one being less afraid, preferably not afraid at all of the pain of losing. The healthy and desirable fear in that respect is the fear of not implementing our own resolve.

Adding to the winning trade ia a mark of a profitable trader, who has replaced the fear of pain of losing smaller profit/s, acts on PA trading what he is able to see and actively manages the trade hoping for a more optimum outcome - bigger profit/s. Pure scalping is a valid exception of not adding to the winning trade, but when one implements many trades based on PA when following trend is a part of strategy, that in a way in a way might be considered of a type of adding to the winners.

In view of the above one might agree with the mantra, that when losing one should not have hope but fear, and in reverse, when in profit replace fear with hope.

The above is just a very limited number of issues relating to fear and there are many more worth investigating, like fear and pain as stimuli or playing positive and necessary part, where for example a lack of physical pain is a serious illness ect.

There are some very insightful books on that subject, if interested please PM me, my suspicion is that study of this kind and particularly study of ourselves is rarely on the agenda of the majority of losing traders, if it was not so they will not constitute such big majority.

Good long weekend to all,
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #16,875
  • May 27, 2023 9:29am May 27, 2023 9:29am
Quoting 2be
{quote} Very good point Strat. I understand that everybody reading this is a trader, or espiers to be trader. Salutations and congratulations to you all for joining the club of retail traders (versus commercial traders) where about 80 - 90% are losers, Pareto distribution clearly enacted. If one decided to have an operation would one choose a hospital that have at the very best only a 20% rate of success? Interestingly the retail traders do it of their own volition in contradistinction to necessity. That's for starters! Lets consider fear and trading....
Brilliant post and so true, 2be. I hope all aspiring traders read it but they won't; all they are interested in is any "Get Rich Quick" post/chart with squiggly lines, bells and whistles, flashing lights, EAs, black boxes etc., and to click a mouse button to make instant moolah without doing any work.

Throughout both these threads and my now defunct private website, I have long promoted trading psychology above and before any trading strategy but those new to trading ignore it in favour of a "Get Rich Quick" fix. I'm not sure they realise it even when they lose money after switching from "demo" to a "real" funded money account.

Despite the money making publications of Mark Douglas et all, the only real solution is to take on, and accept, your personal reactions and emotions to Fear and Greed and keep trying different "mind games" to combat these. Like trading, it does get better (not easier), with time and experience, but it is always there; it never goes away. Just like finding your own, personal "style" of trading, it is finding your own unique, personal way of getting around and diluting these in bred emotions. I could probably write my own book on my experiences with Fear and Greed and the gray hair it caused.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,876
  • Edited May 28, 2023 12:22pm May 27, 2023 4:17pm | Edited May 28, 2023 12:22pm
Yes Strat, you have been posting and investing your time and effort for a long time, to some lesser extend I have done it myself too. My current conclusion runs along the following lines, market serves out what is well deserved and it does so without partiality and lies. Every individual is constructed with similarities and differences and we all have to confront ourselves in all different areas and address different areas related to trading.

When driving a car could you imagine trying to solve an inquiry as to which of many wheels is the most important. The situation is resolved for a while when one wheel is punctured and deflated. For a while one is forgiven to assume that for that short time that punctured wheel usurps the position of the most important, or more important than other wheels, including the driving one. That example presents us with the dilema, with the possibility that the question/s are misleading as to be useful in figuring out the best outcomes.

In trading many areas are important, and at times one is tempted to focus on one to the determent of others, yet focusing on specific areas one by one is the way human usually operate. Multitasking is desirable, and multitasking with necessary precession demands training and stamina of all kinds. Trading and multitasking, do they have anything in common? Things get even more complicated by adding indicators, adding yet another task to already busy arrangement, crowding the limited ability to comprehend whats is going on on any given TF. That is one of the main reason that information overload presents a problem.
Chart reading skills, PA , S/R, TA, Fundamental Analysis, timing, trend/range, money management, trade management, emotional state and management of emotions, physical state, tiredness,worries and concerns , fear, pain greed, discipline are just a few to mention. All of them are important and demand our attention.
These and many other are the extremely interesting issues one discovers when involved in trading, as they are unveiled and brought up to the attention of the skilful observer. Absolutely nobody is perfect, but one needs to be committed to work, study and and be truthful to oneself to start with.
The question is if one needs to be concerned when self deluded traders are committed to be perpetual losers? Similarly, is one to be concerned when people with limited finances spend large proportion on alcohol, cigarets, drugs and slot-machines. I am concerned and sad, but concerned individual/s have to desire to change.
Being a residential landlord in south east of England over several decades, I have seen and experienced all sort of situations. Some tenants pulled it through, and investment in them brought good fruit, while sadly others decided to self destroy themselves. My suspicion is that in trading, the overwhelming majority is in constant danger to self destroy themselves and their accounts, and in severe cases causing themselves and their families pain and discomfort of various degrees.
I would like to encourage one to be truthful, starting with trying to be truthful to oneself. If one is not able to do that, a good start is to stop laying to yourself.
Well, again I might have written too much, hope have not waisted your and mine time.
Wishing all to have a great long weekend,
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #16,877
  • May 28, 2023 12:42pm May 28, 2023 12:42pm
Quoting Strat
{quote} Brilliant post and so true, 2be. I hope all aspiring traders read it but they won't; all they are interested in is any "Get Rich Quick" post/chart with squiggly lines, bells and whistles, flashing lights, EAs, black boxes etc., and to click a mouse button to make instant moolah without doing any work. Throughout both these threads and my now defunct private website, I have long promoted trading psychology above and before any trading strategy but those new to trading ignore it in favour of a "Get Rich Quick" fix. I'm not sure they realise...
Quoting 2be
{quote} Very good point Strat. I understand that everybody reading this is a trader, or espiers to be trader. Salutations and congratulations to you all for joining the club of retail traders (versus commercial traders) where about 80 - 90% are losers, Pareto distribution clearly enacted. If one decided to have an operation would one choose a hospital that have at the very best only a 20% rate of success? Interestingly the retail traders do it of their own volition in contradistinction to necessity. That's for starters! Lets consider fear and trading....

Some incredible posts here for those who will read them.

I haven't posted here for a long time, the above two posts are why, I will explain.

First, a thank you is in order to Strat for all the work and years he has put into this thread. I have learned a lot.

Now the explanation. I had reached a point in my trading that required me to fine-tune every aspect of it, this needed to be done without any outside input. No fault of anyone here, just how my brain cell works. As was shared in the above quoted posts, trading is multifaceted, a lot of things need to work together to be successful, everything from how you view price action to how you conduct your personal life. While posting on Forex Factory, I found myself too often drifting away from me, what I needed to figure out about myself and trading. Trading is a psychological mind game you play against yourself, if my head is not right with things my trading suffers. What happens if I lose ten straight, change tactics? What happens with a coin flip if it comes up heads 10 times, change coins? NO! I have learned to keep moving with controlled risk. A post by a well-meaning trader could derail this and I start second guessing myself, then nothing was gained for me. Understand, leaving a social media type setting is something that was required for me.

So, what is different now since the last time posting here?

Moved to the stock market. Trade daily charts with pending orders. Charts are 100% naked, until I add in S/R or turn on the trading volume. I use an ATR at times to help set a stop.

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Also, as mentioned above, adding to winning positions has been a game changer. No single person or Algo can predict how much or little price will move. If it moves a lot, I want to be a part of it with as much as possible. Sure, there is a price target at times depending on S/R, but it doesn't necessarily mean I will take it. There is currently a position that has been held for weeks, the original target was the 52-week high, Friday's price action blew right through it. Still holding it with the add-ons.

To sum this up. no-one has written the book, or posted on social media or even a you tube video on how you need to trade. You write that one yourself.

Thanks Strat, for helping me write my book. Chapters being added daily.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #16,878
  • Edited 12:24pm May 29, 2023 12:06pm | Edited 12:24pm
M5 S&P 500

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Market closed

Trading on paper thin volume and volatility to test the accuracy of my trial broker's volume.

6.75 points on almost no volume and volatility is damn good in my book so it seems my trial broker is going to pass my test.

Entries and exits shown are from my current actual trading account (not MT5)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,879
  • May 29, 2023 12:12pm May 29, 2023 12:12pm
Quoting 2be
Yes Strat, you have been posting and investing your time and effort for a long time, to some lesser extend I have done it myself too. My current conclusion runs along the following lines, market serves out what is well deserved and it does so without partiality and lies. Every individual is constructed with similarities and differences and we all have to confront ourselves in all different areas and address different areas related to trading. When driving a car could you imagine trying to solve an inquiry as to which of many wheels is the most important....
I would like to encourage one to be truthful, starting with trying to be truthful to oneself. If one is not able to do that, a good start is to stop lying to yourself. Well, again I might have written too much, hope have not wasted your and mine time.

A powerful statement, 2be. You certainly have not wasted my time but I suspect others will not have read that far due to the absence of squiggly lines, bells and whistles, flashing lights etc.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,880
  • May 29, 2023 12:16pm May 29, 2023 12:16pm
Quoting Rufus
{quote} {quote} Some incredible posts here for those who will read them. I haven't posted here for a long time, the above two posts are why, I will explain. First, a thank you is in order to Strat for all the work and years he has put into this thread. I have learned a lot. Now the explanation. I had reached a point in my trading that required me to fine-tune every aspect of it, this needed to be done without any outside input. No fault of anyone here, just how my brain cell works. As was shared in the above quoted posts, trading is multifaceted,...
To sum this up. no-one has written the book, or posted on social media or even a you tube video on how you need to trade. You write that one yourself.

Another powerful statement, Rufus. Thank you for your appreciation and good to see your success in trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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