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Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping

  • #1,301
  • Apr 23, 2007 6:12pm Apr 23, 2007 6:12pm
Quoting pipbunny
anyone got any live trading insights on this strategy or the success on the daily one vs. the weekly one at the current market conditions?

What i can say, is im having success with both methods, i will also say both methods required a fair bit of work to suit anyones trading style. And lastly, these are both great strategies for trending markets.

I could go on, but if there's something i've learnt, when it comes to strategy testing and finding out whether one will work for you.. People tell you things based on what works for them. NOTHING beats live testing, where you're forced to apply Psychology, Money Management & Definate Rules.

Disclaimer: IMHO, no offence intended
  • #1,302
  • Apr 24, 2007 2:24am Apr 24, 2007 2:24am
no offense taken. and i fully agree with you. it's just that the past few days if i was to apply the exact rules tk posted it would only have been losses, no profits, and since there's no saying when the ranging will end i don't see those losses turn into profits anytime soon....
with the daily system i am down -42 pips right now from last night and it's not looking good
  • #1,303
  • Apr 24, 2007 11:55am Apr 24, 2007 11:55am
The main problem starting any system is the need for instant confirmation.

Usually, you won't get it. Most are geared towards making profit ON AVERAGE.
So you can spend a few days/weeks just chopping around, perhaps even accumulating losses, then the sweet spot hits or a trend ensues, whichever is needed, and click, within a few days it's all good again.

Discipline, patience and psychology make up trading success.

I should know, I'm still lacking in all three

As for the Tkimble system, it's rough on nerves since it is based on getting killed until a trend actually establishes itself.

I wouldn't use real money to try out stuff bunny, demo things for at least a month first....or if you need the feel for the real money, use 1-5 cent per pip. Still can eat your money fast enough, no worries hehehe.

Really, believe me, don't rush into FX, my first day spent in it was me tossing out 20% of my account, there is NO RUSH to do that
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,304
  • Apr 24, 2007 11:59am Apr 24, 2007 11:59am
Quoting Diate
I've been perusing this thread and what does everyone thing this systems biggest weakness is?
Weeks that close near to where they opened (and only thrash to either side) obviously.

Also I'm not sure how people go about making sure they are IN at the beginning of the week. I for one need to sleep 8 hours at some point, and Asia has been quite active lately.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,305
  • Apr 27, 2007 3:08pm Apr 27, 2007 3:08pm
Quoting Blackinc
What i can say, is im having success with both methods, i will also say both methods required a fair bit of work to suit anyones trading style. And lastly, these are both great strategies for trending markets.

I could go on, but if there's something i've learnt, when it comes to strategy testing and finding out whether one will work for you.. People tell you things based on what works for them. NOTHING beats live testing, where you're forced to apply Psychology, Money Management & Definate Rules.

Disclaimer: IMHO, no offence intended
Good point. I also believe one has to adapt strategies to their style and, mainly, trading psychology.

I can talk from real market experience that tkimble's strategy has been profitable for me. I added some tweaking and plan to do even more customization as time goes by and I get some insights about it.

For this week, it was bad for me too. Well... hardly will win always. At least I can share one cent this week: choping profits too early to super-minimize market exposure can be VERY dangerous. This week showed that even if you are looking for small profits, you cannot predict when this will come. This week was a good example, for small profits came only after an overwhealming number of stops, so overall there were losses.
  • #1,306
  • Apr 29, 2007 5:05pm Apr 29, 2007 5:05pm
Charts will make this system clearer, thanks
  • #1,307
  • May 17, 2007 6:53am May 17, 2007 6:53am
It seems this thread is going like markets... very slow these weeks.

I wonder how can we avoid situations like what is happening the 2 or 3 last weeks. I continue trading 4 diferent pairs, but it seems I am not imune to ranging markets.

I am going to approach the problem by comparing uncorrelated pairs. I wonder if when a pair is doing bad, it means every other is bad either....
  • #1,308
  • May 30, 2007 10:36pm May 30, 2007 10:36pm
The recent markets are a perfect example of why most people still have jobs.

Trading can be simple, but it is not easy.

The patience necessary to keep putting in trades every week and get losses, and then more losses, week after week wears thin on the psyche.

I am trading a methodology similar to this (with different buy/sell points off of the week's open based on market volatility, with robust stop-losses) in three pairs. (Yen, Pound, Swiss vs. USD) In the past I have experienced more than 14 consecutive losses in a row in one pair alone, and a total of 24 losses out of 26 trades in the the 3 pairs before profits started trickling in.

Do I still trade it?

Yes.

Because the losses are relatively small compared to the extremely large profits that accrue when the trends reappear. A few years ago I closed a 1100 pip profit on just one good GBP/USD trade. A few weeks later, another 500 pip profit. Makes up for a number of losses.

I have to admit that money management is critical with this system.

I recently taught the method to a forex trader who in the last 2 months has now racked up seven 50 - 65 pip losses in a row in the GPB/USD alone. He is not amused.

He's sure I just showed him this method to torture him. After a week of profits, he has done nothing but lose.

Here is a question I would love to hear some responses to---

If this system caused you to have 20 losses in a row, what would you do?

Find another system?

Really, I am interested.

TheRealThing
  • #1,309
  • May 31, 2007 9:46am May 31, 2007 9:46am
I can't say that I am not happy to see life in this thread. I have been experiencing losses myself with this.

I have been trading four pairs to good profit until 2 months ago: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY. However I noticed too much correlation between those pairs. So I switched to USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY because they seem to have good uncorrelation coeficients (see http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-cor...PairVsPair.htm
)

But... to no avail. It has been just as bad.

The system is very profitable indeed, but too much dependable of a relatively strong trend. If one could only forsee ranging markets...

Too bad this thread is almost dead. I would like to hear from TK trades....
  • #1,310
  • May 31, 2007 10:52am May 31, 2007 10:52am
Quoting --Id--
I can't say that I am not happy to see life in this thread. I have been experiencing losses myself with this.

I have been trading four pairs to good profit until 2 months ago: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY. However I noticed too much correlation between those pairs. So I switched to USD/CAD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY because they seem to have good uncorrelation coeficients (see http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-cor...PairVsPair.htm
)

But... to no avail. It has been just as bad.

The system is very profitable indeed, but too much dependable of a relatively strong trend. If one could only forsee ranging markets...

Too bad this thread is almost dead. I would like to hear from TK trades....
Id, check out my post on the daily TK: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1630
Like most indicators, it is lagging. Plus you will miss some good moves but will also miss the long term ranging. Its not perfect but I think I'm on to something. Let me know what you think (good or bad) and if you think it should be tweaked.
  • #1,311
  • Edited 5:00pm May 31, 2007 4:22pm | Edited 5:00pm
Quoting Al_Have1
Id, check out my post on the daily TK: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1630
Like most indicators, it is lagging. Plus you will miss some good moves but will also miss the long term ranging. Its not perfect but I think I'm on to something. Let me know what you think (good or bad) and if you think it should be tweaked.

That is a good post. Too bad I did not see it earlier for I check only for weekly system, for it is much like my approach.

And it is a good method too. I got some insights from your idea and will try to implement that on my trades. How exactly do you actually use that range information in weekly system? As I can see you consider 300 pips range a ranging market... so how do you judge it out? As soon as your LWMA moves, those levels (+-150) moves together, right? So how to deem a trending week?

[EDITED] just a thought... have ever considered a Boolinger Bands-like indicator? well, a rapid thought. Must elaborate on finding ranging markets anyways.
  • #1,312
  • May 31, 2007 5:48pm May 31, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting --Id--
That is a good post. Too bad I did not see it earlier for I check only for weekly system, for it is much like my approach.

And it is a good method too. I got some insights from your idea and will try to implement that on my trades. How exactly do you actually use that range information in weekly system? As I can see you consider 300 pips range a ranging market... so how do you judge it out? As soon as your LWMA moves, those levels (+-150) moves together, right? So how to deem a trending week?

[EDITED] just a thought... have ever considered a Boolinger Bands-like indicator? well, a rapid thought. Must elaborate on finding ranging markets anyways.
My first thought is to not trade the weekly when it is in the band. The weekly waits for +-40 pips to confirm a trend. However, when it is in the band, it usually hangs out close to the MA and bounces up & down (whipsaw). Outside the band, it is running away from the MA (and the band). I don't look at it as 300 pips lost because it usually dosen't cover the whole range when it is ranging. I chose +-150 because it fits the chart on losing days.

I haven't customized this for the weekly, but it is a start. I like your idea of using bollinger bands. The keys are how do we use these indicators for entry/exit points and how does one trade in a range without giving up on a profitable system like TKs? Buy at the bottom band and sell at the top? Move to TK on a breakout?
  • #1,313
  • May 31, 2007 9:53pm May 31, 2007 9:53pm
Quoting Al_Have1
My first thought is to not trade the weekly when it is in the band. The weekly waits for +-40 pips to confirm a trend. However, when it is in the band, it usually hangs out close to the MA and bounces up & down (whipsaw). Outside the band, it is running away from the MA (and the band). I don't look at it as 300 pips lost because it usually dosen't cover the whole range when it is ranging. I chose +-150 because it fits the chart on losing days.
Being in the bands may not mean ranging markets, specially if you consider the typical lag in technical indicators like these: we may just miss a good week for a bad one. There seems to be a tradeoff between being right most of the times and wrong a lot of times, controlled by the periods in the Mean Averages.

Quoting Al_Have1
I haven't customized this for the weekly, but it is a start. I like your idea of using bollinger bands. The keys are how do we use these indicators for entry/exit points and how does one trade in a range without giving up on a profitable system like TKs? Buy at the bottom band and sell at the top? Move to TK on a breakout?
It is a very good thing TK lets us customize his system, for it is imperative recognizing, as close as possible, a ranging week. I was not thinking exactly in entry and exiting points: TK was clear on those. I am thinking in classifying weeks between ranging and trending.

About how to trade on ranging weeks, consider Martingale approaches, like 10point3, in

http://www.forex-tsd.com/expert-advi...nts-3-mq4.html

That seem to be good on ranging markets, but margin killing in trending ones.
  • #1,314
  • Jun 19, 2007 2:05pm Jun 19, 2007 2:05pm
Quote



Here is a question I would love to hear some responses to---

If this system caused you to have 20 losses in a row, what would you do?

Find another system?

Really, I am interested.

TheRealThing
Hey THE REAL THING,
The answer that I have to your question.........is stay with the system..... money management will help with my exposed risk. Over all I need not to worry, because the expectancy is positive. If I went into it blindly with no view on expectancy........then I am not sure


Take Care

Rsq955
  • #1,315
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:41pm Jun 20, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting rsq955
The answer that I have to your question.........is stay with the system..... money management will help with my exposed risk. Over all I need not to worry, because the expectancy is positive. If I went into it blindly with no view on expectancy........then I am not sure
Rsq955
I agree with your assessment completely. If you have tested the trading method, know you have tested it correctly; are using money management that is proper for even larger than expected drawdowns-- you need to keep trading the system.

The fact that most others will abandon it before it returns to its typical profits will in a perverse way assist in its return to profitability.

This is also why "knowing" the profile of what you are trading is so critical. When it matters the most, your understanding will enable you to take the trades which will pull you out of whatever drawdown you may have been in.

This week, I bought the GBP/USD @ 1.9821 and currently have over 120 pips in the trade. This is the first decent profit my weekly system has been in for a couple of months. (Note: this refers to trading the GBP/USD. Trading the GBP/JPY with the same system has been extremely profitable for months)

And the week isn't over yet.

It may get stopped out for another loss or end up with even a bigger profit.

Following a system can be very frustrating, but trader's need to realize that ultimately everyone, and the way they deal with the market consistently "is" a system. What guidelines or system you choose to follow, and how accurately you follow those guidelines, will determine your ultimate profitability.

About the system that you are trading:
If you are trading by your own intuition and have been losing long term (net losses over the last rolling 500 trades), you are trading a losing system.

The old statement about doing the same thing expecting different results..., applies here.

Gaining money really is not that difficult in Forex.

  1. Currency markets trend.
  2. They almost have to trend.
  3. Governments are shoveling money into the financial markets to force these trends.
  4. Don't people get this???


If just one year ago you had $2000 in a forex account and bought a monthly breakout in GBP/USD, you would have gained over 1300 pips without killing your account. If you did the same with GBP/JPY (which was my preference because of the swap, and obviously I wasn't alone---the hedge funds trade in agreement with this strategy I'm citing) you would have gained 3400 pips on the same money. With no exit signal yet.

But no. That would be too simple and frustrating when you'd have to sit through the necessary corrections to get to the money.

Making money in Forex is simple---but not easy!

Most people have to prove that they are smarter than the market and dodge in and out all the time. Which costs money from spreads, and even more important, psyche damage.

Everytime you make a decision, it costs you something. That is why there are very few old traders in the pits. They hit a limit of an invisible number of trades. Even if they have been consistently profitable---- something tells them that they just aren't willing to do it any more and they end up trading longer term.

This isn't going to be a problem for most who dabble in Forex. Most of them blow out their accounts before they ever get the hang of trading or what proves to be profitable.

For the rest, my suggestion is to get into longer term strategies that "work" before your trade limit is hit. It is easier on your mind and the profits are just as spendable.

TheRealThing

  • #1,316
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:47pm Jun 20, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting TheRealThing
I agree with your assessment completely. If you have tested the trading method, know you have tested it correctly; are using money management that is proper for even larger than expected drawdowns-- you need to keep trading the system.


TheRealThing


This woulda been a good post to put in the beginners section, too
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,317
  • Jun 21, 2007 8:04am Jun 21, 2007 8:04am
Quoting TheRealThing



Gaining money really is not that difficult in Forex.

  1. Currency markets trend.
  2. They almost have to trend.
  3. Governments are shoveling money into the financial markets to force these trends.
  4. Don't people get this???

Making money in Forex is simple---but not easy!

Most people have to prove that they are smarter than the market and dodge in and out all the time. Which costs money from spreads, and even more important, psyche damage.


Nice post indeed. I cannot agree more with you: markets do trend. However they do not trend MOST of the time. And sidewalks are trend-trader killers. You need cold-bood to survive any system.

I myself think systems like TK's can be used in any kind of markets, with obvious adaptations. Any market with enough volatiliy and good trending patterns can be used. And that is one line of work for TK's system that can be explored: diversification.
  • #1,318
  • Jun 21, 2007 8:13am Jun 21, 2007 8:13am
Quoting TheRealThing
I agree with your assessment completely. If you have tested the trading method, know you have tested it correctly; are using money management that is proper for even larger than expected drawdowns-- you need to keep trading the system.

The fact that most others will abandon it before it returns to its typical profits will in a perverse way assist in its return to profitability.

This is also why "knowing" the profile of what you are trading is so critical. When it matters the most, your understanding will enable you to take the trades which will pull you out of whatever drawdown you may have been in.

This week, I bought the GBP/USD @ 1.9821 and currently have over 120 pips in the trade. This is the first decent profit my weekly system has been in for a couple of months. (Note: this refers to trading the GBP/USD. Trading the GBP/JPY with the same system has been extremely profitable for months)

And the week isn't over yet.

It may get stopped out for another loss or end up with even a bigger profit.

Following a system can be very frustrating, but trader's need to realize that ultimately everyone, and the way they deal with the market consistently "is" a system. What guidelines or system you choose to follow, and how accurately you follow those guidelines, will determine your ultimate profitability.

About the system that you are trading:
If you are trading by your own intuition and have been losing long term (net losses over the last rolling 500 trades), you are trading a losing system.

The old statement about doing the same thing expecting different results..., applies here.

Gaining money really is not that difficult in Forex.

  1. Currency markets trend.
  2. They almost have to trend.
  3. Governments are shoveling money into the financial markets to force these trends.
  4. Don't people get this???

If just one year ago you had $2000 in a forex account and bought a monthly breakout in GBP/USD, you would have gained over 1300 pips without killing your account. If you did the same with GBP/JPY (which was my preference because of the swap, and obviously I wasn't alone---the hedge funds trade in agreement with this strategy I'm citing) you would have gained 3400 pips on the same money. With no exit signal yet.

But no. That would be too simple and frustrating when you'd have to sit through the necessary corrections to get to the money.

Making money in Forex is simple---but not easy!

Most people have to prove that they are smarter than the market and dodge in and out all the time. Which costs money from spreads, and even more important, psyche damage.

Everytime you make a decision, it costs you something. That is why there are very few old traders in the pits. They hit a limit of an invisible number of trades. Even if they have been consistently profitable---- something tells them that they just aren't willing to do it any more and they end up trading longer term.

This isn't going to be a problem for most who dabble in Forex. Most of them blow out their accounts before they ever get the hang of trading or what proves to be profitable.

For the rest, my suggestion is to get into longer term strategies that "work" before your trade limit is hit. It is easier on your mind and the profits are just as spendable.

TheRealThing

AMEN to that! Great advice. All would be wise to follow it.

Deanith
  • #1,319
  • Jun 22, 2007 1:15pm Jun 22, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting TheRealThing

I have to admit that money management is critical with this system.

TheRealThing


hi TRT,
I am trading TK's daily and i agree 100 % with you, actually in each and every thread I read, at any time with no exception it appears the "MM key" statement. But what is curious is that it is really hard to find any discussion about this topic (MM) Everybody talks about methods, but nobody say a word about money management system, just one or two in the beginners section. I dont understand why.
Definely I need some help on this.
Do you mind to share any MM system you use for this method.
Thank for your contribution.

Regards
  • #1,320
  • Jun 22, 2007 3:27pm Jun 22, 2007 3:27pm
hi
I am new here and searching for weekly strategies. I am gonna try yours.
thanks
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