PowerTrading/The River

Yes exactly, the standard stoploss is on the other side of the River. I use that or 60 pips on Geppy, which ever is less. I use no more than 50 on cable.

PT

Any ressources dear PT ?

I'm impressed with what I've seen so far on this method.
I do notice that the discussion on the video does focus around very profitable trades rather than areas where price action is "swimming" in and very close to the river...

This currency is a good one and I've found statistically you can make more money on this compared to all the others.

I personally hate performing manual trades because I'm too emotional and can't be trusted to follow rules - all the time.
I'm developing an EA now but I was wondering if anyone had done this already and had results over a decent period of time.

Thanks,
jamesin.

PT

I have the ea Riverrat LWMA by Bo_Bokus, I run it on a 1hr chart and I have it set on 4 pairs so far its going reasonably well as Iam unable to login to your new site can you tell me if this ea is the latest and am I right to run it on 1hr...

I ask as your manual versions run off 15 min and 4hr charts and it seems odd to run the ea off a 1hr..

Is there any updates?

Glenn

I think you have the most recent. I have not used that EA so I am not sure how well it worked. I think in certain markets it was good and not so good in others but I will ask Bo and report back.

PT

Not sure what you are looking for but I will answer any questions you have.

PT

You are correct, the video does center around the better trades. I think if you filter trades by time of day, you can make your EA a winner. I would suggest that no trades are entered until open of European markets and trades do not open after 18:00 GMT.

PT

Thanks PT!
A very good suggestion that I will try out. I didn't think of this but the charts certainly back up what you're saying.

I think last night we had a good River trade. I entered long around 238.46 and still holding. What did you guys do?

keep on hold targeting 240 this week only a breach of 237.70 will change my view ...

Are you still holding this ?

PT, can you post your view on this trade ? did you take it or filter it ?

The markets are ranging so much that it is difficult to trade our normal trades. If not for news, there would have been very little movement in the market. I keep thinking we are going to break out and it must happen some time. Till then, take what you can get. I was able to trade a few reversals yesterday for winners.

PT

I've been running a few stats across the GBPJPY currency.

I'll post from Jan 1st to now shortly. The story is very different as you'll see.
The columns are fairly self obvious - I hope...

Jamesin


Statistics Report from 2006.06.01 to 2006.12.29
#Days : 150
#Inside days : 18
#Outside days : 14
#Bear days : 69
#Bull days : 81
Av Daily range : 137 61 (high-low, open-close)
Max Daily range: 297
Av Morning rng : 46
Av Inside rng : 95

Predictions based on 26 point movement from open price at 3:00
# predictions : 150
# correct predictions : 77 51.3333% correct
correct prediction profit 4573 pips to day's close price
correct prediction profit 7242 pips to day's high or low that follows
correct prediction profit 3419 pips to price at 17:00

# High/Low breakout predictions : 150
# correct high/low breakout predictions : 62 41.3333% correct
high/low prediction profit 3920 pips to closing price

# breaks of prev day's high : 84 54.7619% remain above high
# breaks of prev day's low : 62 37.0968% remain below low

Av Bull range : 141
Av Bull Open-High : 99
Av Bull Open-Low : 42
Av Bull High-Close : 28
Average time of day for high : 16 hour 7 minutes
Average time of day for low : 6 hour 31 minutes

Av Bear range : 133
Av Bear Open-Low : 104
Av Bear Open-High : 29
Av Bear Low-Close : 54
Average time of day for low : 14 hour 14 minutes
Average time of day for high : 6 hour 6 minutes

#days close > prev high : 45 Av rng to high 91 Av rng to close 67
#days close < prev low : 23 Av Rng to low 102 Av rng to close 52

Days of the week : Av Low-High rng, Av Open-Close rng
Av Mon range : 135 59
Av Tue range : 144 75
Av Wed range : 118 33
Av Thu range : 137 69
Av Fri range : 152 72

High-Low Range spread
< 20 0%
< 40 0%
< 60 0.67%
< 80 10.67%
< 100 11.33%
< 120 20.67%
< 140 13.33%
< 160 16.67%
< 180 5.33%
< 200 4.67%
< 220 10.67%
< 240 2.67%
< 260 2%
< 280 0%
< 300 1.33%
========== end of report =========

You can see that the daily range is MUCH bigger over the last 5 or 6 months compared to the previous.

I'd suggest it's been much easier to make money over the last 6 months than the half year before that.

It's always tempting to see what could have been made and "celebrate" but how good are our crystal balls?

Anyway, you can probably see a few trading systems that could come out of these stats. eg. breaks of previous days high, low or early direction set.

Enjoy!

Jamesin


Statistics Report from 2007.01.02 to 2007.05.17
#Days : 97
#Inside days : 14
#Outside days : 12
#Bear days : 37
#Bull days : 60
Av Daily range : 208 116
Max Daily range: 639
Av Morning rng : 65
Av Inside rng : 128

Predictions based on 26 point movement from open price at 3:00
# predictions : 97
# correct predictions : 54 55.6701% correct
correct prediction profit 6347 pips to day's close price
correct prediction profit 9042 pips to day's high or low that follows
correct prediction profit 4967 pips to price at 17:00

# High/Low breakout predictions : 97
# correct high/low breakout predictions : 44 45.3608% correct
high/low prediction profit 5199 pips to closing price

# breaks of prev day's high : 53 62.2642% remain above high
# breaks of prev day's low : 42 42.8571% remain below low

Av Bull range : 190
Av Bull Open-High : 139
Av Bull Open-Low : 51
Av Bull High-Close : 40
Average time of day for high : 15 hour 53 minutes
Average time of day for low : 5 hour 16 minutes

Av Bear range : 237
Av Bear Open-Low : 209
Av Bear Open-High : 28
Av Bear Low-Close : 65
Average time of day for low : 14 hour 14 minutes
Average time of day for high : 4 hour 4 minutes

#days close > prev high : 31 Av rng to high 116 Av rng to close 83
#days close < prev low : 19 Av Rng to low 203 Av rng to close 158

Days of the week : Av Low-High rng, Av Open-Close rng
Av Mon range : 207 116
Av Tue range : 217 132
Av Wed range : 198 111
Av Thu range : 239 141
Av Fri range : 178 82

High-Low Range spread
< 20 0%
< 40 0%
< 60 1.03%
< 80 3.09%
< 100 8.25%
< 120 4.12%
< 140 10.31%
< 160 11.34%
< 180 9.28%
< 200 9.28%
< 220 11.34%
< 240 7.22%
< 260 3.09%
< 280 4.12%
< 300 2.06%
< 320 2.06%
< 340 0%
< 360 1.03%
< 380 1.03%
< 400 2.06%
< 420 4.12%
< 440 2.06%
< 460 0%
< 480 1.03%
< 500 0%
< 520 0%
< 540 0%
< 560 0%
< 580 1.03%
< 600 0%
< 620 0%
< 640 1.03%
========== end of report =========

Jamesin,

I'm a little confused exactly what we are looking at. The statistics are easy enough to follow, but what about the predictions?

Are those the backtests of the River Trade over the last few months? Whatever they are, they sure look good.

A bad month might give you breakeven, but the good months make it worthwhile. What can you tell use?

Hi,
I wrote this stats EA a while ago so I could some idea on stats that could be relied upon and hence might be useful to eventually earn some money.
I'd never looked at the GBPJPY currency pair until I stumbled upon this river section. I had always assumed that the GBPUSD was it and had been put off by the big spread on this currency. (8 pips with www.fxdd.com).

Those stats have got nothing to do with the river trade but I'm happy to explain what they are.
The main point I was making by providing these stats is how much more intraday movement we've had over the last 6 months compared to the 6 months prior.

1) High/Low breakout prediction.
This is if the current day breaks either the low or the high of the previous day. If for instance the high is broken and it closes above the high, then this is where the prediction was correct. The equivalent for a low is when we break the previous day's low and the close for the current day is below this.
The so called "high/low profit" adds up the profit only on those trades that succeeded and is the difference between the previous days high or low (as appropriate) and the close of the current day.
Note: inside days would be completely ignored. Also, trades where prediction wasn't correct would incur a loss and this hasn't been taken into account. This could be easily factored in if you chose a worst case stop loss.

2) 26 point movement at 3am (chart time - metratrader)
This means if (and only if) at 3am a movement of >= 26 points is achieved relative to the open price for the day, a position is taken out in that direction. (i.e if movement was 30 points upwards from open, then we'd buy, if say 26 points drop from open then we'd sell. Otherwise do nothing)

The profits are the measurements of the 3am price and the close, high/low (as appropriate) and the price at 17:00.

You can see from this that prediction was reasonable being above 50% and the profit better than using the previous day's high/low breakout.
Obviously the profit to the high or low of the day is there for comparison only as it's impossible to say on the day high or low as been reached with certainly until the day is over...

You can see that I've tried to "find" the time when the high or low is reached in a day and this was done by averaging the HH:MM:SS for high/lows of each day.

I hope this stimulates some thinking and fresh ideas on this whole mystery.
At the moment I've just completed an EA do carry out the river trade to the letter for the 15 minute period.
I guess the part of the method that wasn't really clear was when to take profit. We know that it's the other side of the "river" for the initial stop loss.
You'll be pleased to know that the 0.05 deviation in the MA envelope does give the best results and amazingly the 62 SMA gives the best results for the MA. I used to optimiser to try all other values from 30 to 100.

It makes a profit of around $11,000 USD using 1 lot trades from Jan 1, 2007 until now. The strike rate is ordinary to say the least 17% for shorts, 37% for longs and the all important profit factor is 1.22 which is fairly sad.
I'm exiting when it crosses the other side of the river.
The big challenge for me now is to find some sort of smart trailing stop loss that will give me a large percentage of potential profit. Also, what are some filters to avoid trades altogether that work out unprofitable.

Anyone who has some brilliance on this I'd be very happy to hear from!!

Jamesin

Hi All,

I have been working hard trading lately. The River is a great trade and will work in any market but the trending markets are certainly the best. My favorite pair is normally the Gbp/Jpy but the lack of daily range on this pair currently has caused me to trade the Euro/Usd more or the Gbp/Jpy. I will be posting some more charts in the next few days. Once we start trending again, watch out. I am pleased to see all the testing that has been done.

PT

I am waiting for your chart.

I added some filters now for 15M to avoid noise.

And also testing it on 4H charts with MACD which came from 300 per month thread and also Stoch for 4H timeframe.

But your charts are very important for me or maybe you have some updates?

hi guys

this is my first post in the this thraed
well i try the river from last 4 days and amazingly get more then 300 pips in gj mving

i paste a chart of today's trading which i took from gj

and thanks for the POWERTRADER bro u make the things nicely
love that system

thanks
ABID

hi friends !

here is the trade of today 24 may 2007 in GJ
easily make 30 pips trade in GJ today

entry 241.12 as u can see in chart and exit 240.82 61.8 fib level

thanks powertrader bro this system is holy grail thanks once again

ABID