Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Waiting anxiously about your questions.

loveandpeace

The questions are what have you learning here from Thickpipe and myself since you paid me $75 for the 90 day course

Thickpipe how much have you paid me to take MY COURSE And what have you learned

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

I asked Thickpipe couple of times but he said sorry to teach anything., As far as yours is concerned, I am waiting to start the 90 days training program as promised. It's NOT the matter how much you paid, but you offered me discount, I accepted. And from time to time, I asked questions whatever it was in my mind and you answered. And finally as per your advice to start your 90 days training course.

Sabbath Shalom

I apologize for the dishonesty of thickpipe. He has issues that I do not understand. I have spend a tremendous amount of my time teaching him.

He as not paid one cent as yet . He has NO WORD.

He has failed the course even if his number are great. HE does not post here. He has caused me great frustration.

I will start teaching you myself next week from May 15, 2023 to August 15, 2023.


Bruce Warren Matgolese

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/t...gmrefcode=gata

The dynamics driving the dollar down

May 11, 2023·Alasdair Macleod

This article examines the currency imbalances between US dollars and the other currencies and concludes that should foreign holders decide to reduce their dollar exposure, the consequences for its value would be dramatic.

The dollar’s problems should be laid at the door of the wishful thinkers who think the state knows better than free markets. It is that which has led to currency imbalances. Central banks attempting to manage economic outcomes by manipulating interest rates and “stimulating” economic activity have acted in defiance of Say’s law, which defines the relationship between production and consumption, and the true role of a medium of exchange.

By dismissing this fundamental truth, the US authorities have made a rod for their own backs. Their determination to replace gold as the highest form of money with the fiat dollar has led to extraordinary levels of dollar accumulation about to be unleashed onto unsuspecting markets. A break below 100.50 on the dollar’s trade weighted index will probably be the signal. It currently stands at 101.50.

Say’s law says it simplest

John Maynard Keynes did the world a disservice with his offhand dismissal of Say’s law. Consequently, economists have lost the true relationship between production and consumption. And we have lost our understanding of the true role of currencies as a medium of exchange. Nearly all our economic errors have flowed from this dismissal.

In order to understand the seriousness of it with respect to the dollar today, the denial of Say’s law is no less than a denial of the division of labour. Yet, plainly, the division of labour is the basis of all human economic activity. Without having something to sell, we cannot buy the things we need which we are unable to provide for ourselves efficiently or easily. Where we differ from other animals is that we develop our personal skills to maximize the value of our specialized production so that we can increase our wider consumption for the greatest relief of our needs and desires. Our individual skills are the key that provides our wealth. And it is the role of currency as a medium of exchange which allows us to turn our production into our consumption.

Several things follow from this truism. One is that if we reduce our total production, we reduce our total consumption, because the former leads to the latter. No, say the Keynesian's, who put it the other way round. They say that if we reduce our consumption there will be a general glut of goods on the market and then prices will fall, leading to unemployment. The error is to not understand that first we must produce in order to consume, so that there cannot be a general glut, only changes in the level of productive output which are broadly matched by changes in overall consumption.

Surely, this can be easily understood even by non-experts. But this deliberate error — for that is what it can only have been — has led to a misunderstanding of the role of the medium of exchange. It provides the means to exchange goods of unequal value: for example, a cobbler makes shoes and boots, whose unit value will be greater than the individual food items he requires daily to feed his family. It also provides producers with the credit required to finance production, paying costs incurred before a final product is sold and creditors repaid.

This is the essence of trade. And so long as transacting individuals only produce to consume, the expansion and contraction of the sum total of money and credit purely in connection with that trade cannot alter their value in terms of goods and services generally. Not so, say Keynes’s macro economists, now joined in chorus by the monetarists. They claim that expansion of money and credit alters the general price relation. Both believe in manipulating credit to this end.
Again, a child should be able to understand the flaw in this argument. The general price relation is only altered when additional currency is introduced by central banks for purposes other than the credit required for the settlement of trade in free markets.

This is in defiance of the sole function of a medium of exchange, which is to act as the agent for turning our production into consumption. But it does mean that if excess currency accumulates in the form of credit additional to its use as a trade settlement medium, its purchasing power is undermined because it does not originate from the need to turn production into consumption. It is important to understand that it is this excess that changes the price relation, not changes in the level of credit per Se. And this is the case with respect to international trade, where currency balances have accumulated.

When a foreigner holds unspent dollars, that person or entity can be said to be “owed” US domestic goods and services. This logically follows from the unbending precepts of Say’s law. But the majority of foreign owned dollars have actually been exchanged for product of a sort. On US Treasury TIC figures, approximately $24.5 trillion are invested in long-term US Treasuries, corporate bonds, and equities. These constitute incorporeal wealth and are therefore classed in the owners’ minds as assets, just as if they were corporeal wealth, such as property, farmland, livestock, and factories, which are similarly valued in dollars. All these assets represent consumption of the fruits of production.

It is the unspent dollars held in the correspondent banking system, together with short term Treasury and commercial bills instantly realizable, totalling some $7.2 trillion which represents the unspent balance of foreign production. It arises because foreigners have accepted dollars in payment for their goods and have yet to spend them on US goods and assets.

What are their alternatives? They can of course hang on to their dollars, spend them on US production (presumably by increasing their ownership of financial and non-financial assets valued in US dollars), sell them to acquire non-American production and assets, or exchange them for the ownership of their own or other currencies of account.

The altered character of the US economy
It will not have escaped the reader’s attention that over decades the US economy has reduced its production of corporeal goods relative to the incorporeal. This means that foreigners cannot buy much in the way of semi-manufactured and manufactured goods with their dollars, but overwhelmingly incorporeal assets in the form of securities and services. Accordingly, the US economy is said by some to have been hollowed out.

Putting services to one side, this means that by acquiring US securities, which have accumulated to a figure larger than US GDP, foreigners are committing to receive continuing dollar income streams. It is an important distinction from spending dollars on physical goods, which are not so immediately exposed to currency risk.

But it has been the long-term decline in interest rates driving bull markets which contributed to the accumulation of incorporeal, or credit-based assets by foreigners. And just as surely that the long-term decline in interest rates encouraged the accumulation of purely financial incorporeal assets, at some point the new trend of increasing interest rates will surely lead to an avalanche of foreign liquidation, not just of the assets themselves, but of the underlying dollars.
But there is a substantial overhang of dollars in foreign hands already, which according to the US Treasury is just over $7.2 trillion, representing about 40% of US bank deposits. Assuming for the moment that there is no official intervention, in aggregate those dollars can only be sold for foreign currencies and gold in possession of American citizens and businesses. But according to the US Treasury’s TIC figures, American ownership of foreign currency balances is only $632bn, and we can safely disregard ownership of the gold available to satisfy dollars sales by foreigners. Therefore, the ownership of dollars in foreign hands outnumbers the available foreign exchange by over eleven times.

Domestic owners of dollars widely believe that foreigners must hold onto dollars, because they are used to settle purchases of commodities, settle international trade, and to pay interest on dollar debt owed by foreigners. This is certainly true. But what happens if foreign holders of US financial assets begin to fear further rises in dollar interest rates? Pressure will mount for them to reduce their holdings in longer-term assets, realizable in dollars which adds to that eleven to one currency imbalance.

Partially offsetting the $24.5 trillion foreign ownership of long-term US financial assets is US ownership of foreign financial assets amounting to $14.5 trillion — an unfavourable balance though not so much as is the case with short-term deposits. But additionally, interest rate increases in the US have happened in advance of the other major currencies and if that relationship continues fixed-interest financial asset values in dollars will generally decline ahead of those in other currencies. Assuming this timing relationship holds, there is a risk that the resumption of a global bear market will undermine dollar assets first relative to the euro, yen, yuan, and pound — irrespective of their individual characteristics.

The problem for the dollar is heightened by a further factor. When foreigners liquidate dollar investments, they end up owning additional dollars to those already reflected in correspondent bank balances. These are likely to be sold down immediately for the diminishingly small pool of US owned foreign currencies and for gold. The situation is different for US residents holding foreign investments, the vast majority of which are held in American depository receipt (ADR) form. Consequently, an American investor does not have a foreign exchange transaction when selling these assets. Therefore, selling of foreign investments cannot be offset against foreign selling of US investments with respect to the consequences for exchange rates.

The one-sidedness of this situation is likely to become rapidly apparent when the dollar’s technical position is seen to deteriorate from current levels. The chart below shows the current position for the dollar’s trade weighted index.
https://gm-media-library.s3.eu-west-...50a53eac24.png

The technical position suggests that this breakdown is set to occur soon, and that a breach of 100.50 (currently at 101.50) is likely to be the precursor for a significant further decline in the trade-weighted index.

If that happens, it is likely to be sudden.

Intervention by the Fed and US Treasury
The lack of US domestic ownership of foreign currencies makes it almost certain that a run on the dollar will be met by official intervention. The Fed is able to draw on swap lines with the other central banks to supply foreign currencies, buying dollars in their place. These arrangements were not designed for currency management purposes, but for providing liquidity in cases such as the Credit Suisse bailout. Accordingly, the swap agreements between the six major central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ, SNB, BoE, and Bank of Canada) are far too small to stabilize the dollar given the likely scale of a run on it.

Current swap facilities compared with the scale of the problem are the equivalent of a mouse to an elephant. Increasing them can only take the comparison from a mouse to a rat relative to an elephant. Therefore, the only way a run on the dollar can be addressed is for the Fed to raise interest rates sufficiently to protect it. This is unlikely to be an initial response, but introduced after it is feared that a falling exchange rate adds to producer price and CPI inflation, and that a reluctance by the Fed to increase interest rates would risk undermining confidence in the dollar even further.

However, if the Fed increases dollar interest rates, it will weaken interest rate dependent asset values causing further securities liquidation by foreign holders. But that is the only solution for stabilizing the dollar, even raising them high enough to discourage selling of the dollars raised from selling investments. Put simply, the Fed will then have to choose between protecting securities markets from further value deterioration and protecting the currency.

Not only would protecting the currency go against the grain of everything the Fed has tried to achieve by maintaining confidence in US financial markets, but it also has a duty to fund the government’s deficit. Sharply higher interest rates are bound to cause an economic slump, reducing taxes, and adding to welfare costs. Funding requirements for the US Treasury will increase significantly at a time when foreign ownership of US Treasuries are being liquidated. Funding costs will also increase. Furthermore, the liquidation of foreign owned assets currently estimated at $24.5 trillion would be accelerated by any attempt to protect the dollar by raising interest rates. Additionally, the strains faced by the commercial banking network would almost certainly lead to a full-on banking crisis.
For the Fed, it truly becomes a Morton’s fork dilemma.

The Asian response
The extent to which foreign governments, typically members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the non-Asian BRICS+ membership anticipate these developments can only be guessed at. But at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum last June, President Putin explained the negatives for dollar ownership to the attendees from eighty-one foreign official delegations. Since then, declarations of intent and applications to join both SCO and BRICS+ have been made by many nations. But so far, there is little evidence of actual dollar selling by them.

That they appear to be sitting on the fence between the western alliance and the Asian axis is a significant change from recent times when they would not have dared to question America’s monetary and military standing in the world. The explanation can only be that this crowd’s vested interests have shifted. Not only is an alliance with China and Russia holding out the prospect of a more positive future, but its members are increasingly scared of going down with a dollar-based financial system which has outlived its usefulness. It is easy to imagine why trade prospects with the Asian hegemony are relatively attractive, but to escape from one currency system to another requires a degree of confidence in the latter.

The signals emanating from Russia and China are positive, but as yet not substantiated. Russia’s Sergey Glazyev, officially appointed to design a new trade settlement currency for the Eurasian Economic Union, was the moving light behind the beefing up of the Moscow Gold Exchange to replace the LBMA facilities withdrawn from Russian miners and refiners in the wake of last year’s sanctions against Russia. He subsequently described in some detail the benefits of a gold-based rouble relative to the dangers of a fiat dollar based monetary system in an article for Vedomosti, a Moscow based financial newspaper on 27 December last. The shift of emphasis from the proposed EAEU trade currency to adopting gold backing for the rouble was notable.

In China, the signals are still opaque. Saudi Arabia has led an increasing number of nations willing to take payment in yuan for energy exports. Observers have pointed out that if the Saudis use the exchanges in Hong Kong and Shanghai, they can exchange yuan for gold. If the Saudis and others use this facility, then it amounts to swapping payments in petrodollars for payments in gold.

The oil for gold trade is still speculation. But it appears that the major Chinese banks are now offering their citizens the facilities to run gold accounts funded by yuan. Could this deliberate act by state-controlled banks amount to preparations for the remonetisation of gold? Could this be the way forward — the way a yuan gold standard will operate?

There are advantages for both the rouble and the yuan in such a move. For the rouble, a credible link with gold would permit interest rates over time to decline from current levels of 7%—10% to about 3% for obvious economic benefits. The pressure on the yuan is considerably less, with bond yields of most maturities already at between 2%—3%. China could easily adopt a gold standard. Furthermore, her incredibly high savings rate allows Chinese banks to expand credit without driving up consumer prices. It could be argued that China has no current need to secure the yuan to the value of gold, but to ensure rock solid international confidence in it as a currency the move makes enormous sense. Furthermore, both countries have significant quantities of bullion not declared as official reserves.

Clearly, both Russia and China are moving very carefully. They appear to be putting in place a Plan B in case there is a collapse in the western alliance’s financial system, comprising their fiat currencies, commercial banks, and even central banks.

They have no illusions about the risks they face from America’s weaponization of the dollar, and the fact that it leans on its five-eyes security partners to do her will. But it is the western position on gold which is also important. Against all international law, the Bank of England refused to return Venezuela’s gold on its government’s request, plainly on instructions from the Americans. The New York Fed refused to return some of Germany’s gold when requested — eventually conceding to the request.

We do know from research conducted long ago that the western alliance’s gold reserves are badly compromised through leases and swaps, leading to at least double ownership of much of it. With Russia and China now moving towards the reintroduction of gold backing for their currencies, there is an impending disaster for the western alliance’s decades of monetary deceit. Clearly, for the Asian hegemony to suddenly announce a return to a formal gold exchange standard for their currencies would irrevocably undermine the vanishing credibility in the dollar and its western stablemates. It would amount to a declaration of financial war of ultimate destruction.

Besides the risk that a financial war would lead to military conflict, it is not in the Asian axis’s strategic interests to be seen to be the guilty party. China still exports large quantities of goods to America and Europe. While her interests are moving more towards trading and investing in Asia, it is nonsensical to deliberately destroy her existing export markets. But the one thing over which China has no control is the actions of America. Both Russia and China have adopted a strategy of passively allowing the Americans to make all the strategic errors, which they have been doing in abundance. Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine, then sanctions against Russia — the best the American can claim is occasionally something Pyrrhic.

The time for Russia and China to declare their new currency arrangements are when such a move would be obviously a protective response to a deepening crisis for the dollar and its companion currencies. Only then would accusations that returning to gold exchange standards as an aggressive act against the west be demonstrably false. But it would be the final curtain on the error of western governments and their central banks buying into Keynes’s cool-aid, ditching gold standards as a barbarous relic, winding down their gold reserves in some cases to zero, and grasping the opportunity to intervene in all things economic in defiance of Say’s law.

Copyright 2023 Goldmoney Inc. All rights reserved.

I am very excited to learn from you. Let me know please the time I should come Online or whatever your method of teaching is. I Am All Ears. Thanks

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What You Aren’t Being Told About The World You Live In
How The “Conspiracy Theory” Label Was Conceived To Derail The Truth Movement
How Covert American Agents Infiltrate the Internet to Manipulate, Deceive and Destroy Reputations



May 13, 2023
Pope-Nazi Alliance Renewed As Russia Builds Migrant Village For American Christians

By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers

A troubling new Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today first noting President Putin posted the message to participants of the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum (SPILF): “Russia has been invariably in favor of building a mutually beneficial partnership in the political and security sphere, in the economy, science, culture and sports”, says in this message he stressed: “Illegitimate sanctions, which ignore the principles of equality of countries and non-interference in their internal affairs, and the severing of treaties in the sphere of strategic stability cause serious harm to the international legal system and destroy its very essence...It is the rule of law and respect for state sovereignty that provides a solid foundation for the emerging multipolar world order, a more just and democratic one”.

In his address to the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum, this report notes, Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev gravely warned: “It is obvious that a full-scale hybrid war has been unleashed against our country...Ukraine’s American and European masters are heavily pumping our enemies with lethal weapons of all kinds...In fact, they are leading the matter to a third world war, to a global catastrophe in which, as you know, there are no winners”—a warning that followed Deputy Chairman Medvedev assessing: “Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky could suffer the same fate as Nazi German dictator Adolf Hitler”.

Echoing Nazi German leader Adolph Hitler’s call to exterminate Jewish peoples from the world in the 1930s, this report continues, the Ukrainian Nazi Regime began the week with a vow to exterminate Russian peoples “anywhere on the face of this world”—a vow of genocidal extermination joined by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky arriving this morning at the Vatican to meet with Pope Francis—is a Pope-Nazi Alliance renewal whose past is recorded in the article “Hitler’s Pope, Pius XII, Should Finally Be Canceled”, wherein it notes: “Only one pope ever bore actual witness to a genocide and did absolutely nothing about it, and that was Eugenio Pacelli, Pope Pius XII”, and also in articles like “In ‘Confession Of Guilt’, German Catholic Church Admits ‘Complicity’ With Nazis”—Ukraine Nazi leader President Zelensky will next travel to Germany to receive a $3 billion military aid package—but for the under socialist siege German peoples, they’ve just been warned: “Electricity rationing could become unavoidable in Germany as part of an energy transition strategy starting from next year”.

https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/hpz21.png

In the Eastern European country best described in the article “Welcome To Ukraine, The Most Corrupt Nation In Europe”, this report notes, before fleeing over the past week, its Nazi leader President Zelensky met with the top executives of the American multi-national investment company BlackRock based in New York, which is the world’s largest manager of assets valued at nearly $9 trillion—quickly after which articles appeared like “'Is Ukraine Being Privatised': Netizens Fume Over President Zelensky's Meet With BlackRock Management”, wherein it reveals enraged peoples posting messages like “Taxpayers pay the war bills, private firms get the profits”—all of which was joined by the news: “The Kiev regime is dubious about the success of the long-awaited counteroffensive of Ukraine’s Armed Forces...Behind closed doors, some high-ranking officials in Kiev have struck what was described as a “very realistic and very pragmatic” tone, conceding that it is unlikely Ukraine will be able to gain ground in the new Russian regions of Zaporozhye and Kherson, as well as in the people's republics of Donetsk and Lugansk - at least this year”.

Yesterday, this report details, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin announced that China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, will visit Ukraine, Russia and several European countries next week, with him stating: “This visit by the Chinese representative is a testament to Chinese efforts to promote peace talks and our firm commitment to peace”—an announcement quickly followed by European Union chief diplomat Josep Borrell warning: “It is so important that China understands that what is happening in Ukraine is an existential threat for us, and we expect that China will use its role and its responsibilities…If this is not the case, our relationship will not be so good”—is the same EU chief diplomat Borrell who also admitted this week: “I know how to end the war immediately...Stop providing military aid to Ukraine and it will have to surrender in a few days...That’s it, the war is over”—and is the same EU chief diplomat Borrell that fears China will succeed in its push to build its own “world order” no matter how the crisis in Ukraine wraps up, and has urged the bloc to create its own “coherent strategy” toward Beijing independent of Washington’s.

Shortly after British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced yesterday that he will press ahead with plans to reduce the British Army in size despite the Ukraine conflict and increased military spending, this report continues, the Foreign Ministry issued a dire warning to the British government: “Carried away with geopolitical games, the United Kingdom is apparently ready to cross any red lines and bring the conflict towards a totally new level when it comes to destruction and casualties...Russia reserves the right to take any measures deemed necessary to neutralize a threat that may arise from Ukraine’s use of the British cruise missiles...Those behind this reckless step and London’s destructive activities will be to blame for the consequences”—a warning followed by the Ministry of Defense reporting this morning: “According to updated information, on 12 May 2023, during a rocket attack on the city of Luhansk, the armed formations of Ukraine used two Storm Shadow cruise missiles (English-French production) and one ADM-160B MALD anti-aircraft defense missile (US production)”—and was an attack by Ukraine Nazi forces on innocent Russian civilians using these missiles whose damage was reported: “The Storm Shadow missile has done massive damage...Dozens of cars were damaged in one of the yards, houses were cut by shrapnel...A number of garages were completely destroyed...At the site of the explosion, residents found characteristic fragments of a British rocket made of fiberglass...The main damage to residential buildings was caused by a shock wave...Windows were shattered in several buildings, and shards of glass were scattered around the rooms...The doors inside the apartment were also damaged”.

https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/rca25.png

The demonic genocidal mindset of Ukrainian Nazis that launch missiles against innocent Russian civilians, this report notes, is exactly mirrored by the godless socialist Biden Regime forces terrorizing the American peoples, as best exampled today by the parents in Loudoun County-Virginia, who have become targets of violent threats on social media for speaking out against their school district’s demonic LGBTQ agenda, one of whom, Alisha Brand, revealed to the viewers of Fox & Friends: “I'm not sure if your audience is aware of the violent nature of curb stomping, but what it does entail is grabbing somebody by the back of the head, forcing their mouth open, pushing them down to the ground with their face on the cement, their mouth around the curb, and then somebody else stomping on the back of their head...This is murder, it's a felony, and this is what I was threatened with by these activists who are tied to our political candidates”—and was a revelation joined by the beyond shocking article “America First Legal: Documents Reveal Homeland Security Listed Pro-Life Moms as “Radicalization Suspects” – With Examples”.

In 1975, this report concludes, United States Senator Frank Church issued a grave warning that the surveillance powers of the American government would change the United States into a tyranny no one could escape from—a warming of American socialist surveillance tyranny echoed this week by European Parliament member Clare Daly, who warned her peoples: “Maybe it’s time that Europe started to wake up!”—and for some of these under demonic socialist siege Westerners waking up, Russian immigration attorney Timur Beslangurov announced that the government has approved the construction of an “American Village” for 200 families of conservative immigrants, that will start in the Moscow Region in 2024, and stated: “Basically, they are Orthodox Christians, Americans and Canadians who, for ideological reasons, want to move to Russia...The reasons are known, it’s the imposition of radical left-liberal values in the West, which basically have no limits…Today they have 70 genders, tomorrow who knows what...Many normal people do not understand this, and they want to emigrate...One potential group of immigrants are traditionalist Catholics who are white Americans with many children, which the US government considers domestic terrorists”. [Note: Some words and/or phrases appearing in quotes in this report are English language approximations of Russian words/phrases having no exact counterpart.]

https://www.whatdoesitmean.com/hpz22.png

May 13, 2023 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com. Freebase content licensed under CC-BY and GFDL.

[Note: Many governments and their intelligence services actively campaign against the information found in these reports so as not to alarm their citizens about the many catastrophic Earth changes and events to come, a stance that the Sisters of Sorcha Faal strongly disagree with in believing that it is every human being’s right to know the truth. Due to our mission’s conflicts with that of those governments, the responses of their ‘agents’ has been a longstanding misinformation/misdirection campaign designed to discredit us, and others like us, that is exampled in numerous places, including HERE.]

[Note: The WhatDoesItMean.com website was created for and donated to the Sisters of Sorcha Faal in 2003 by a small group of American computer experts led by the late global technology guru Wayne Green (1922-2013) to counter the propaganda being used by the West to promote their illegal 2003 invasion of Iraq.]
[Note: The word Kremlin (fortress inside a city) as used in this report refers to Russian citadels, including in Moscow, having cathedrals wherein female Schema monks (Orthodox nuns) reside, many of whom are devoted to the mission of the Sisters of Sorcha Faal.]

“Early Warning” Hidden From Americans Nearing “Bullets And A Backhoe” Future

Final Warning Issued After Russia Detonates Super-EMP Weapon Over Kiev

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https://www.birchgold.com/news/yelle...m_medium=email

From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen usually gets a good deal of media attention whenever the dramatic topic of resolving the “debt ceiling” comes up.
This week is no exception. Yellen warned, yet again, that severe economic consequences were imminent if the U.S. were suddenly not able to pay its bills:
“Our current projection is that in early June, a day will come when we’re unable to pay our bills unless Congress raises the debt ceiling, and it’s something I strongly urge Congress to do,” Yellen told ABC’s “This Week.”

Yellen said the U.S. has already been using “extraordinary measures” to avoid default, and it’s not something the Treasury Department can continue to do. She said Congress needs to take action to avoid “economic calamity.”

“It’s widely agreed that financial and economic chaos will ensue,” Yellen said.
In fact, Treasury Secretary Yellen is panicking over the June deadline. Now she is personally dialing an unknown list of financial-sector executives to warn them.
Looks like the Biden administration is seeking to pressure GOP lawmakers into raising the debt ceiling while leaving Biden’s apparent blank check for spending intact:
The Treasury secretary is having one-on-one conversations with individual CEOs to warn them about the “dangerous consequences of the current brinkmanship,” one of the sources said.

The sources declined to name the CEOs with whom Yellen had spoken in recent days, or provide any other details about their conversations, but one said they included executives in the financial sector and broader economy.
While the sources did not spell out her purpose, Biden administration officials have been speaking to business owners about pressuring Republicans to raise the debt ceiling without conditions. [emphasis added]

In fact, the Treasury Secretary also disapproves of any spending cuts at all while Congress attempts to resolve the debt ceiling fiasco.
Yellen scorns fiscal discipline, calls spending cuts “irresponsible”

Yellen recently scolded the GOP for trying to negotiate a pause in spending while resolving the debt ceiling:
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in an interview published Sunday that Republican calls for spending cuts in exchange for agreeing to raise the debt ceiling were “very irresponsible.”

Yellen said the GOP’s stance on the debt ceiling could have far-reaching consequences for the economy.

She also warned: “It is possible for markets to become quite concerned about whether or not the U.S. will pay its bills.”
The article offered a counterpoint explaining the GOP’s reasoning, and one consequence of delaying a debt ceiling decision:
The Biden administration has warned that an extended standoff over the debt ceiling could destroy faith in the credit of the U.S. government and spur a deep economic recession.

Of course, we don’t know exactly how this political drama will play out. We’ll have to wait and see what happens. But it looks like there will be consequences if some form of resolution isn’t reached soon.

Even a near-miss on default could be a disaster
The consequences of a debt default are easy to imagine.
In addition to a deeper recession than the one already on the way (according to the Fed), there could be:

1. Millions of jobs lost
2. A severe reduction in GDP
3. Massive credit contraction and systemic financial strains

In fact, the White House analysts put together a similar projection if a protracted (long-term) default were to happen. In a recent table, shown below, those impacts could happen as early as the third quarter this year:
https://www.birchgold.com/wp-content...g-standoff.jpg
via White House

Take notice of the column label-ed “Short Default,” which might leave you thinking that a brief default wouldn’t be all that bad, if the debt limit didn’t get increased in time to keep paying the bills…
…except things would get bad in a hurry. Here’s why even a brief default could set catastrophic ripple effects in motion:
Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, predicted that even with a brief default, a “crisis, characterized by spiking interest rates and plunging equity prices, would be ignited. Short-term funding markets, which are essential to the flow of credit that helps finance the economy’s day-to-day activities, likely would shut down as well.”

According to Moody’s, even a short debt limit breach could lead to a decline in real GDP, nearly 2 million lost jobs, and an increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 5 percent from its current level of 3.5 percent.

Moody’s also notes that even a short debt limit breach could lead to lastingly higher interest costs: “If Treasury securities are no longer perceived as risk-free by global investors, future generations of Americans would pay a steep economic price.”
A Brookings analysis noted that losing the unparalleled safety and liquidity of the Treasury market due to default could translate into over $750 billion in higher federal borrowing costs over the next decade.

Peterson Institute economists have argued that lower demand for Treasuries would weaken the dollar’s role in the global economy: “This weakening of official dollar purchases would likely increase volatility in the dollar’s value against other currencies and decrease liquidity, prompting investors to reduce their holdings of dollars in any form.” [emphasis added]

So even a brief default could permanently destroy the perception of the U.S. government as a responsible borrower. This would severely weaken the dollar’s role in global commerce, and cause short-term credit markets to grind to a halt (just like in 2007-08).

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg! At the same time, the economy would plunge into a deep recession and pretty much all federal government operations would shut down.
I’m starting to think maybe Yellen is right to panic…

There’s one asset that can’t default
During times of extreme political drama and massive economic uncertainty like today, it’s a good idea to consider your long-term financial situation. Are your savings diversified enough to ensure you have a financial future, regardless whether chaos engulfs the economy?

Trust me on this: trying to outguess the bureaucrats is a waste of time. It’s better to hope for the best while you prepare for the worst.
One thing you can do right now: Take just a few minutes to familiarize yourself with physical precious metals like gold and silver. Precious metals can’t default, by definition. They’re just about the only asset that isn’t an IOU or a promise to pay.

Take some time today to discover why gold is historically considered a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and political upheaval.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...n-mentally-ill

Johnstone: This Civilization Is Mentally Ill

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BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, MAY 13, 2023 - 07:30 PM
Authored by Caitlin Johnstone via Substack,

It's time for another US presidential race where populist factions on both sides spend a few months angrily decrying the establishment before voting for candidates in the general election who will fully serve that same establishment.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=OqaOEPZj

I think this is just the norm now. Public discontent with the US political status quo is now so great that there's going to be a new "Hey kids, you can vote your way into revolutionary change!" feature built into every presidential election. 2012 was the end of a political era.

❖

The biggest misconception about politics is that political differences have any meaningful existence at all. Everyone's herded into two mainstream factions who both serve the interests of the powerful, while those few who can't be herded are marginalized into political impotence.

And I am of course mainly talking about the English-speaking world here. The global south has real political diversity of real consequence, and has real differences from the status quo politics of the US-centralized empire. But within that empire, political differences are effectively illusory.

❖

I feel like maybe we didn't make a big enough deal about that revelation the other day that the US government now has so many institutions dedicated to "perception management" and regulating "disinformation" that it created a new agency within the ODNI to oversee all of them.

I mean everyone made a lot of noise about the DHS's "disinformation governance board" last year, and rightly so, but as a whole this seems way more egregious in terms of government interference in human communication.

❖

The problem with opposition to dissent-crushing measures is that it mostly only comes from those at whom such measures are directed. Mainstream journalists know they won't be imprisoned like Assange, because they won't do work like Assange did. Mainstream liberals know they won't be censored online, so they're happy to cheer for online censorship.

Measures designed to control the narrative and suppress dissent are directed at the fringes, not the mainstream, because that's where dissent of real consequence always first emerges. It won't be those with mainstream political leanings seeing their speech increasingly marginalized and hidden away by algorithms and AI, it will be those who oppose the political status quo. In the future it won't be those with a mainstream worldview being oppressed by things like tech surveillance, police robots and CBDCs, it will be those well outside the Overton window of permissible debate.

The average person will be unaffected by such measures, because in our current mind-controlled dystopia the average person is compliant and innocuous.

This is why attempts to get a large movement of opposition to these totalitarian measures typically fail to gather significant public traction: because only people on the fringes have reason to fear them. By controlling the mainstream consensus, our rulers eliminate any meaningful opposition to their tyranny toward the real dissidents whose politics generally lie well outside that consensus. And since it's only widespread mainstream opposition that would ever give them reason to fear public backlash, they can keep ratcheting up these dissent-crushing measures.

I don't really have any solution to this problem; I've been staring at it for years and don't see any easy answers. I'm just putting it out there in the hive mind so that awareness of the problem can grow and we can start collectively looking for solutions.

❖

This civilization is so mentally ill that you'll get treated like a gibbering lunatic for expressing the most sane and rational opinions anyone can possibly express.

Something as basic as "The world's most powerful government should stop ramping up nuclear brinkmanship on multiple fronts" will get you treated like a kook, when really it's so obvious and common sense it shouldn't even need to be said.

That's how crazy mass-scale brainwashing has made everyone.

❖

I will never support any form of capitalism, because no form of capitalism — real or hypothetical — will ever have an answer to the problems of ecocide and the need to care for the needful.

Every capitalism-based solution that has ever been proposed for these problems is self-evidently ridiculous; the notion that privatizing the natural world can preserve oceans and rainforests is infantile nonsense that's refuted by all of human history, as is the notion that the needful can be cared for solely by voluntary charity. No intellectually honest person believes this is true. No ancap who's thought hard enough about ecocide and caring for the needful sincerely believes that capitalism can address these problems. At their most honest, they'll say that ecocide and starvation are necessary sacrifices that must be made for the freedoms and conveniences they want to have for themselves.

I appreciate a right-libertarian who straight up admits that they're fine with environmental destruction and the weakest members of society dying off rather than pretending the "free market" can address these issues, because at least they're being honest about where they stand.

And of course the current western status quo model of capitalism with a little state welfare and a few superficial environmental restrictions isn't working either, because here we are. Every possible capitalist school of thought has failed to find a solution to these problems. You can yell "but communism bad" at me all you want, but that doesn't address the fact that people are struggling to survive and our biosphere is hurtling toward collapse, and that literally nothing anywhere in capitalist thought has anything resembling a viable answer for this.

We won't ultimately have a solution to ecocide and exploitation until mass-scale human behavior ceases to be driven by the pursuit of profit altogether, because ecocide and exploitation are profitable. We're going to have to find another organizing principle if we're to survive on this planet.

❖

Never let yourself lose sight of the reality that as bad as things are, the fact that there are things at all is vastly more significant than any of our puny human problems.

It's not something you can talk about all the time because people will think you're being callous about human suffering and all the problems that we do have, but the truth of the matter is that even if things were ten times worse than they are now, it would still be vastly less significant than the fact that we get to live in a world and perceive it and think about it and share ideas about it instead of nothing existing at all.

Yes, pay attention to our problems and do what you can to fix them, but never, ever let yourself lose sight of the fact that we are living in the middle of a continuous miracle of unfathomable beauty, and that we ourselves are inseparably unified with that vast miracle. If you only fixate on thoughts about our problems you will become bitter and ineffective in the fight against injustice, and more importantly, you will have wasted your time here failing to appreciate the wondrousness of a human life on this amazing planet.

* * *

Caitlin’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscribe.

My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece please consider sharing it around, throwing some money into my tip jar on Patreon, Paypal, or Substack, buying an issue of my monthly zine, and following me on Facebook, Twitter, Soundcloud or YouTube. If you want to read more you can buy my books. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list for at my website or on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. Everyone, racist platforms excluded, has my permission to republish, use or translate any part of this work (or anything else I’ve written) in any way they like free of charge. For more info on who I am, where I stand, and what I’m trying to do with this platform, click here. All works co-authored with my husband Tim Foley.

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https://mishtalk.com/economics/dolla...t-trust-the-us

Happy Mothers Day !!!

Please read what I share here which is fundamental information. Ask me questions about anything that you do not understand.

I spend hundreds gf hours on the telephone live with a former student who learned so well that he has no time to even post here daily.

He does not understand that learning how to trade Forex has more to do with human nature.

Human nature to put things off, delay, never finish what you start, Make promises that are never kept.

Wanting everything for FREE, blaming others instead of yourself. Add to that he probably is Bi Polar Manic like my friend I.M. who in the last 25 years has lost around $10,000,000 Canadian dollars trading stocks.

Bruce Warren Matgolese
President CEO
Aviel Forex Learning Edge Corporation

Email to: [email protected]

WWW.AVIELFOREXLEARNINGEDGE.COM

Would you mind answering my questions below:-

How do you find out Money Flow between different Asset classes??

I think when you say trend in the stock market is down you mean that this bull is artificially achieved by central banks investing printed money in stock and bonds. Entire global recovery is based on printed money. But they can't figure out how to increase wages and inflation. Longer they support this bull, bigger burst will happen.

Here are few questions:-

1. Stock market trend is still up and can continue for a while. Isn't it still safer to trade long?
2. If Equity markets open higher will you trade (Long US 30, Long SP500, Long USD/JPY, Short Silver and Gold)?
3. If I understand correctly, days when you trade you enter the trade at 9:30 and finish around 11:30 due to closing of the European market?
4. How do you determine EUR/USD trend? Looking at the charts?

Good morning loveandpeace

Excellent questions...

That is part of learning so (Stock Market Trend is DOWN. I determine that every 90 days so until June 30, 2023 my call on the trend is down which means SHORT US30, NASDAQ and SP500 only on days that we determine by the MONEY FLOW that we have RISK OFF.

I NEVER SHORT Gold or Silver as the trend is 100% UP as the worlds monetary system is collapsing. Read any of the articles posted by others much more knowledgeable and experienced than my self however I form my own consensus by analysing all sides of the coin. (Others who have opinions based on their knowledge and experience.

Look at the FINVIZ 5 minute chart over here. WWW.FINVIZ.COM (You click on Futures DOW 30 then go to the 5 minue chart. Look at the repeating patterns.)

https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM&p=i5

Waiting here your expert opinion.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...security-state

Kunstler: The Elites Are The Useful Idiots Of The Security State
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by Tyler Durden

Monday, May 15, 2023 - 05:20 PM
Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Dirty Secrets
“The average Democrat knows the Biden family is profoundly corrupt and they simply don’t care…. Sam Harris spoke for all of them when he said it wouldn’t matter if Hunter’s laptop was packed w/pictures of dead kids.”

This is the dirty secret of our time: the device that the Woke / Progressive elite used to finally get rid of Donald Trump — Covid-19 — shoved them over a cliff Wile E. Coyote style. And now, as they free fall off that cliff, the supposed antidote to Covid-19 — getting vaccinated — is blowing up in their faces, again, Wile E. Coyote style. The elite now have to wake up every day and wonder if the vaccines they rushed to get will end up killing them prematurely. This is what has finally driven them crazy. And, of course, crazy people will do crazy things: like destroy their own country.
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I decided early-on to not get vaccinated for a simple reason: as the vaxx program got up to speed in the late winter and spring of 2021, reports came out that the spike protein in it attacked the endothelial lining of the blood vessels and led to unusual blood-clotting. As someone who had bypass surgery some years earlier, that was all I needed to hear. This was before any Censorship Industrial Complex formed to attack “misinformation.” The news was still getting out.
By then, Mr. Trump was out, too, deposed in a janky election rigged with Covid-19 ballot “innovations” that made fraud easy. He was replaced by a fake chief executive too impotent to even campaign, but useful as a front for the gigantic “security” bureaucracy that was actually running things. This naturally raises the question: what exactly is the relationship between the political elite and this security state?

The elite are the useful idiots of the security state. They enable it and protect it with their divisive antics. The dirty secret of the security state is that it’s not about the security of the state, that is, of the nation known as the USA. Its about the security of the people running the security state, the agency heads and their officers in the Intel Community and all its spin offs, the State Department, the Justice Department, and the Defence Department and their accomplices in Congress and the federal judiciary.

What does this security state need protection from? From accounting for all its prior cumulative crimes against the nation. These crimes slowly accredited over the decades after the Cold War and then blossomed in 2016 — slowly, and then all at once — when the security state was rocked by the election loss of its avatar, Hillary Clinton. Mrs. Clinton had many crimes of her own to conceal, most of them committed with the help of the security state, such as the Uranium One grift, the Skolkovo transfer of US computer tech to Russia, and the Clinton Foundation’s financial escapades following the 2010 Haiti earthquake, to name a few biggies.

The person who beat Mrs. Clinton had averred publicly and shockingly to her crimes during the campaign, going so far as to label her “Crooked Hillary.” That is why the Russia Collusion hoax became the centrepiece of security state harassment during Mr. Trump’s term in office. The Democratic Party was enlisted as the praetorian guard for the security state. The public had to be conditioned to believe any number of things that were the opposite of true.

Like myriad institutions in recent decades, the Democratic Party had come to be dominated by women. Women, being hard-wired for safety-seeking, were easily manipulated by the security state into an hysteria fixated on Donald Trump, who was made to represent everything that seemed unsafe. They gave the game away on Mr. Trump’s inauguration day with their women’s march that featured thousands wearing the emblematic “pussy hats.” Message: don’t think you can have your wicked way with this!

The hysteria hasn’t let up since then, and now that Mr. Trump is re-surging from a thousand attempts to kill him off like some implacable axe-murderer in a horror movie, the corps of useful idiots is showing signs of nervous exhaustion. The Democratic Party’s front-man, “Joe Biden” (or the claque behind him backstage), has screwed the pooch on just about every matter of vital public interest at home and abroad, and now this president stands revealed as the head of a racketeering operation that specialized in bribery. Yet, oddly, it is Mr. Trump who has been fed into the cogs of the judiciary on an unending set of Mickey Mouse charges. There’s a pretty fair possibility that none of that will work.

The Democrats must suspect this, and their nemesis has declared his intentions for a return to power pretty clearly: fire all the seditionists in the security state, pardon all the people on the Right who were unjustly prosecuted, and commence some righteous prosecutions against people who actually deserve it. Thus, the Left plunges ever-deeper into mental illness — celebrating it at every opportunity and even shoving it America’s face, Joker-style, in defiance: Here, have another drag queen….

A big part of the Left’s mental illness is the inability to even notice their own self-destructive trajectory. There’s a way out for them but it’s pretty drastic. That would be turning to RFK, Jr. for leadership. Trouble is, Mr. Kennedy intends to go after the Democrats’ patron, the security state itself, which he’s publicly blamed for the deaths of his father and uncle. Bobby Kennedy also happens to be an enemy of the US public health agencies and especially a critic of the Covid-19 vaccines that the Left has hung its identity on. They still can’t admit that getting vaxxed and boosted was a tragic mistake.

But an election contest between RFK, Jr. and Donald Trump would be a most salutary exercise for our country. Both of them want to dismantle the overgrown surveillance apparatus and severely reform the agencies under the executive branch. That is, they are both intent on disarming the security state and the Censorship Industrial Complex it spawned. They are both against the stupid Neo-con wars.

Trump versus RFK, Jr. would bring the people of this country together and refocus the nation’s attention on things that matter. It would also be the Baby Boomer’s last stand.

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Please comment. Thanks

By knowing where the money will FLOW. It goes from STOCKS when they head down to BONDS. Then it reverses. I will explain more later.

I am in the middle of my move to my new home and office.


Bruce