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Level in Level out

  • #261
  • May 11, 2023 1:30am May 11, 2023 1:30am
Quoting axecap
{quote} typo I think, but cant see what it should be. 1.0915 ish is the next low I have
Sorry.... got it sell at 10024
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #263
  • Edited 12:35pm May 11, 2023 7:28am | Edited 12:35pm
Morning guys... got hit with a stop on 9404 buy position. Looks like its breaking out with a bear move from a month long sideway action. So, we have only long aways sell limits, waiting game begins to see how PA develops to give us new levels from current action.
It starts with price pullbacks which will define valley to put a Buy limit then double top or N action to go short with sell limit.

Price is right at 9110 (old LV) that one as you all should know by now it's a filter for me (2w).

GL
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  • #264
  • May 11, 2023 7:39am May 11, 2023 7:39am
Two recommendations;
* Don't use indicators to define your levels, you will have lines everywhere crowds your chart way too much, keeps you out of touch... learn to train your eyes to see it yourself and draw it. Not to mention if you are following the thread most of levels from an indicator is filtered. so you be trading not based on what we do here.
* Don't go below H4 timeframe. Its noise and you have to watch dog the chart every 15 min or hour. again, that's not what we do here.
and if I have to use one more recommendation that would be to ignore post 262, with all due respect.

But it's all entirely up to you.

GL
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  • #265
  • Edited May 12, 2023 6:24am May 11, 2023 8:34am | Edited May 12, 2023 6:24am
Right… have today installed MT5 iOS app to see if I can trade this method with iPhone while traveling (will be in Austria & Italy next 2 weeks). Only my second trade using this approach &, as I do not have an MT5 broker, all in Sim mode. I’m Long from just below my lowest level as price so often tags the 100 / BRN levels; as it’s Friday & trade has reached +20 or so, will move stop to b/e soon & def close position for weekend.

Thanks for thread, nfx .

Edit: stopped @ b/E+ / great weekends everyone.
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  • #266
  • May 11, 2023 8:44am May 11, 2023 8:44am
Quoting jtrade
Right… have today installed MT5 iOS app to see if I can trade this method with iPhone while traveling (will be in Austria & Italy next 2 weeks). Only my second trade using this approach &, as I do not have an MT5 broker, all in Sim mode. I’m Long from just below my lowest level as price so often tags the 100 levels; as it’s Friday & trade has reached +20 or so, will move stop to b/e soon & def close position for weekend. Thanks for thread, nfx . {image}
9100 LV falls into my 2 weeks (2W) filter.
However, if you feel comfortable to give up 30 to test it, it's all good. This level is still in the sideway bracket so it may not be all that bad of a trade, I don't mind it.

GL
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  • #267
  • May 11, 2023 11:24am May 11, 2023 11:24am
Quoting jtrade
I’m Long from just below my lowest level as price so often tags the 100 levels; as it’s Friday & trade has reached +20 or so, will move stop to b/e soon & def close position for weekend.
... just realised it's Thursday.... oops
  • #268
  • May 11, 2023 12:16pm May 11, 2023 12:16pm
lol life must be good... Austria Italy jezzzz... already thinking Friday. .. maybe some vino....
Banking some pips maybe...

Enjoy buddy.
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  • #269
  • May 11, 2023 8:37pm May 11, 2023 8:37pm
Alright guys I decided to take a stab at 9100 level even though it falls to my 2W filter. I see price reacting to it for several candles and the level is still within bracket I will make a audible and go for it... it's worth a shot.

GL
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  • #270
  • May 12, 2023 3:31am May 12, 2023 3:31am
I am always intriqued at how people determine levels the way you do! When I look at a chart it just seems like so many levels. So I shall be following closely and learning more. Any tips on how you spot levels?
  • #271
  • Edited 8:22am May 12, 2023 8:07am | Edited 8:22am
Quoting nadi-fx
Alright guys I decided to take a stab at 9100 level even though it falls to my 2W filter. I see price reacting to it for several candles and the level is still within bracket I will make a audible and go for it... it's worth a shot. GL {image}
Goodmorning, so the none signal sell trade did not work out but I lost only 12 pips on that one moved the stops up before going to bed after a little cushion it gave.
overall, a dumb trade not within the plan but I was up +40 and this probably was the only chance to get me back to my weekly goal... still finishing the week with +30.
I consider this week a survival one... trades were against market will and that's when power of 3R comes handy, one win covers 3 losses, with 25%-win rate you breakeven.
I am done for the week all orders removed.

Week is winding down, market heading south, dollar strengthening, bracket broken and will see how it shapes up. for now, no buy limits, sell limits far and away.
what's next! price will halt makes a pullback and you get yourself a Valley that's a level to go long... after pullback it may resume, and the resume point becomes your peak that's a level to go short on next visit (double top) that's how you will get in this bear move. 9310 is the closest to it atm.

Possible scenarios;
* Price pulls back and gets stuck in a sideway action you will make ton of money.
* Price pulls back but gets in choppy action, you will BE for most parts.
* Price pulls back gives you double top and shoots down you will make money and possibly continue to stay in the trend, (next phase I will show you, if still here)
* Price pulls back and resumes and breaks the valley hard every time you will lose 30 every time... but if shows slightest reaction/bounce you still might get away with BE results at times.
so, that's the way it goes.

one thing is for certain, price will halt, price will pullback... and markets overall sideways 2/3 of times. Based on those facts I know I can make money and not lose money, IF I can keep myself in check. So, it comes down to YOU.

Have a wonderful weekend folks.
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  • #272
  • May 12, 2023 8:08am May 12, 2023 8:08am
Quoting HazHazHaz
I am always intriqued at how people determine levels the way you do! When I look at a chart it just seems like so many levels. So I shall be following closely and learning more. Any tips on how you spot levels?
No tips other than reading the 1st post and other important posts.

GL
Stay the Course
  • #273
  • May 13, 2023 1:42am May 13, 2023 1:42am
Quoting nadi-fx
{quote} Goodmorning, so the none signal sell trade did not work out but I lost only 12 pips on that one moved the stops up before going to bed after a little cushion it gave. overall, a dumb trade not within the plan but I was up +40 and this probably was the only chance to get me back to my weekly goal... still finishing the week with +30. I consider this week a survival one... trades were against market will and that's when power of 3R comes handy, one win covers 3 losses, with 25%-win rate you breakeven. I am done for the week all orders removed....

Price pulls back gives you double top and shoots down you will make money and possibly continue to stay in the trend, (next phase I will show you, if still here)

Please are you thinking of leaving soon? I do not understand what you meant by "if still here"
  • #274
  • Edited 4:02am May 13, 2023 2:20am | Edited 4:02am
if its not giving me the 3R I initially have the target at next level but if i see price is reacting to this mediocre level and not breaking through it then i just bank, but i give it a chance to break it. for example on the current short trade i got my tp at bottom level and not at the immediate one that is about 70 pips.

Please do you have specific price action strategy to determine if price is reacting to or breaking a mediocre level? Do you sometimes go down to the lower time frames eg H1 to see this reactions? I guess it may also help to explain how to remain with the trend in case one gets lucky

many thanks for your time
  • #275
  • May 13, 2023 9:58am May 13, 2023 9:58am
Quoting Jewel1996
{quote} Price pulls back gives you double top and shoots down you will make money and possibly continue to stay in the trend, (next phase I will show you, if still here) Please are you thinking of leaving soon? I do not understand what you meant by "if still here"
If the activity dies and no one here... then ya nobody would be here.
Thats what I meant.
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  • #276
  • Edited 4:07pm May 13, 2023 12:52pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting Jewel1996
if its not giving me the 3R I initially have the target at next level but if i see price is reacting to this mediocre level and not breaking through it then i just bank, but i give it a chance to break it. for example on the current short trade i got my tp at bottom level and not at the immediate one that is about 70 pips. Please do you have specific price action strategy to determine if price is reacting to or breaking a mediocre level? Do you sometimes go down to the lower time frames eg H1 to see this reactions? I guess it may also help to explain...
I never go to lower time frame if anything I go up.
No specific PA strategy... it either breaks the level hard or reacts to it with a hesitation or bounce. I will at times give it the chance for the hard break, that's all.
Now...
1. If level is short of my 3R, I hold for the break to bank at next level for 3R. (Like on the buy trade this past week)
2. If level satisfies 3Rs but it's in a sideway action I bank at the quickest hesitation. (like the sell trade mid this week for 103)
3. If level is in the trending mood PA stepping, I will be more tolerable, take the hard break more seriously to maximize on possible trend.
... the 3rd scenario is something we have not seen yet but PA looks to be trending bear now... so if we are able to get on this on a pullback double top.. we will look for bottom hard break for trend continuation. (chart below)
The probability is higher on trending PA for continuation level to be broken, especially early stages of the Trend.
It's just all commonsense to me more than anything else instead of PA predicting, reading etc,... trend can stop at any time... we just won't know. But there are early stages when its ripe and exhaustion time when near winding down... both are very visible in the charts.
Now, all of that depends on my Risk Management too... where I am at that time of the week... down two stops, even, up, killing it etc
Trading is not all clean cut... it's all about the buck in the end more than the Xs and Os.

I hope it helps.

GL
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  • #277
  • Edited May 14, 2023 12:28am May 13, 2023 11:56pm | Edited May 14, 2023 12:28am
Quoting nadi-fx
{quote} I never go to lower time frame if anything I go up. No specific PA strategy... it either breaks the level hard or reacts to it with a hesitation or bounce. I will at times give it the chance for the hard break, that's all. Now... 1. If level is short of my 3R, I hold for the break to bank at next level for 3R. (Like on the buy trade this past week) 2. If level satisfies 3Rs but it's in a sideway action I bank at the quickest hesitation. (like the sell trade mid this week for 103) 3. If level is in the trending mood PA stepping, I will be...
Thank you Nadi
  • #278
  • May 14, 2023 12:39am May 14, 2023 12:39am
Quoting nadi-fx
{quote} I never go to lower time frame if anything I go up. No specific PA strategy... it either breaks the level hard or reacts to it with a hesitation or bounce. I will at times give it the chance for the hard break, that's all. Now... 1. If level is short of my 3R, I hold for the break to bank at next level for 3R. (Like on the buy trade this past week) 2. If level satisfies 3Rs but it's in a sideway action I bank at the quickest hesitation. (like the sell trade mid this week for 103) 3. If level is in the trending mood PA stepping, I will be...
Price pulls back and resumes and breaks the valley hard every time you will lose 30 every time... but if shows slightest reaction/bounce you still might get away with BE results at times.

This last scenario is not quite clear to me. Will appreciate further clarification if possible. may be a chart example will help if you can spare the time

Rgds
  • #279
  • May 14, 2023 1:39am May 14, 2023 1:39am
Quoting Jewel1996
{quote} Price pulls back and resumes and breaks the valley hard every time you will lose 30 every time... but if shows slightest reaction/bounce you still might get away with BE results at times. This last scenario is not quite clear to me. Will appreciate further clarification if possible. may be a chart example will help if you can spare the time Rgds
90% of times when price breaks the Level hard your stop is hit... but when it does not and resumes back in your favor it can turn into a winner or breakeven... like the sell trade we had late last week (red circle).. I end up BE that one but some of you even banked 30-40 pips.
stop survived a hard break on that one, which traveled about 26 pips.
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  • #280
  • May 14, 2023 1:47am May 14, 2023 1:47am
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...14425173#reply
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