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Cycle trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 16, 2007 2:56am May 15, 2007 11:07am | Edited May 16, 2007 2:56am
I'm going to explain better my way of trading based on cycles.

The pair I prefer is EURUSD on long timeframes (D1, W1, MN).

For the first example I took a very simple picture (TF=W1) , without pivots to be more clear.

Every cycle seems like a big "M".

Based on antecedent finished cycles we get the likely length of the current cycle, bearing in mind an uncertainty margin of +/- 15%.

We find main trendline (the big green on picture) as usual.

The cross between trendline and the end of cycle give us the level where the pair will probably be at the end of cycle.

Bye.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_16052007_w1.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #2
  • May 15, 2007 3:33pm May 15, 2007 3:33pm
But what is it?
TEB
  • #3
  • May 16, 2007 3:08am May 16, 2007 3:08am
Quoting TEB63
But what is it?
TEB
Hi Teb.
Well it's my way of trading. The "core" of it. Cycles and trendlines nothing more, nothing less.

I changed picture. I hope this new one is clearer than the other pic.

At this moment I'm waiting for the cycle-end to buy EURUSD...

Hope you understand my words 'coz english is not my native language.

Bye.
  • #4
  • May 16, 2007 4:33am May 16, 2007 4:33am
Quoting owkenobi
Hi Teb.
Well it's my way of trading. The "core" of it. Cycles and trendlines nothing more, nothing less.

I changed picture. I hope this new one is clearer than the other pic.

At this moment I'm waiting for the cycle-end to buy EURUSD...

Hope you understand my words 'coz english is not my native language.

Bye.

But what tool do you generate the cycle with?
  • #5
  • May 16, 2007 10:41am May 16, 2007 10:41am
Quoting TEB63
But what tool do you generate the cycle with?
Actually we don't need any indicator or special tool to find the cycle, except our brain and experience (the most powerful tools I know).

If you want you can put a simple MA, period 5 or 4, on your chart to smooth candlesticks wave but it's not necessary.
Cycle is all about timing and duration and the cycle shape is like a big "M". That's all.

On the picture below I manually drew the cycles.

Bye.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_16052007_w1_b.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #6
  • May 16, 2007 12:54pm May 16, 2007 12:54pm
Quoting owkenobi
Actually we don't need any indicator or special tool to find the cycle, except our brain and experience (the most powerful tools I know).

If you want you can put a simple MA, period 5 or 4, on your chart to smooth candlesticks wave but it's not necessary.
Cycle is all about timing and duration and the cycle shape is like a big "M". That's all.

On the picture below I manually drew the cycles.

Bye.

Hi owkenobi,

Thanks for sharing your strategy. I wonder if you have ever gotten into studying cycles more thouroughly... like Hurst or Ehlers stuff. That's what I'm into, we could have a good discussion here.

Do you just trade these simple Ms on weekly charts? For how long did you backtest it? How long have you been trading it live? What about the results? What about other time frames?
  • #7
  • Last Post: May 16, 2007 1:01pm May 16, 2007 1:01pm
so we look these 'cycles' only on Weekly timeframe?
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